Intrinsic value of Carrols Restaurant Group - TAST

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$10.57

  Intrinsic Value

$9.84

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  Rating & Target

hold

-7%

Previous close

$10.57

 
Intrinsic value

$9.84

 
Up/down potential

-7%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of TAST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  1,180
  1,275
  1,374
  1,477
  1,583
  1,694
  1,810
  1,930
  2,054
  2,184
  2,319
  2,460
  2,607
  2,760
  2,919
  3,085
  3,259
  3,440
  3,630
  3,828
  4,035
  4,252
  4,479
  4,717
  4,965
  5,226
  5,498
  5,784
  6,084
  6,397
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,132
  1,222
  1,315
  1,411
  1,512
  1,616
  1,725
  1,838
  1,955
  2,077
  2,182
  2,315
  2,453
  2,597
  2,747
  2,903
  3,067
  3,237
  3,416
  3,602
  3,797
  4,001
  4,215
  4,438
  4,672
  4,917
  5,174
  5,443
  5,725
  6,020
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,132
  1,222
  1,315
  1,411
  1,512
  1,616
  1,725
  1,838
  1,955
  2,077
  2,182
  2,315
  2,453
  2,597
  2,747
  2,903
  3,067
  3,237
  3,416
  3,602
  3,797
  4,001
  4,215
  4,438
  4,672
  4,917
  5,174
  5,443
  5,725
  6,020
Operating income, $m
  48
  53
  59
  65
  72
  78
  85
  92
  99
  107
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  264
  278
  293
  308
  324
  341
  359
  378
EBITDA, $m
  115
  125
  134
  144
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  214
  227
  241
  255
  270
  286
  302
  319
  337
  355
  375
  395
  416
  438
  461
  486
  511
  538
  566
  595
  626
Interest expense (income), $m
  17
  24
  27
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
Earnings before tax, $m
  23
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  51
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
Tax expense, $m
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
Net income, $m
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  56
  59
  61
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  630
  681
  734
  788
  845
  905
  966
  1,030
  1,097
  1,166
  1,238
  1,313
  1,392
  1,473
  1,558
  1,647
  1,740
  1,837
  1,938
  2,044
  2,155
  2,270
  2,391
  2,518
  2,651
  2,790
  2,936
  3,088
  3,248
  3,416
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  630
  681
  734
  788
  845
  905
  966
  1,030
  1,097
  1,166
  1,238
  1,313
  1,392
  1,473
  1,558
  1,647
  1,740
  1,837
  1,938
  2,044
  2,155
  2,270
  2,391
  2,518
  2,651
  2,790
  2,936
  3,088
  3,248
  3,416
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.873
  1.872
  1.872
  1.874
  1.873
  1.872
  1.874
  1.874
  1.872
  1.873
  1.873
  1.874
  1.873
  1.874
  1.874
  1.873
  1.873
  1.873
  1.873
  1.873
  1.872
  1.873
  1.873
  1.873
  1.873
  1.873
  1.873
  1.873
  1.873
  1.873
Average production assets, $m
  389
  421
  453
  487
  523
  559
  597
  637
  678
  721
  765
  812
  860
  911
  963
  1,018
  1,075
  1,135
  1,198
  1,263
  1,332
  1,403
  1,478
  1,556
  1,638
  1,724
  1,814
  1,909
  2,008
  2,111
Working capital, $m
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -249
  -262
  -275
Total debt, $m
  316
  352
  389
  428
  468
  510
  554
  600
  647
  696
  747
  800
  856
  914
  974
  1,037
  1,103
  1,171
  1,243
  1,318
  1,397
  1,479
  1,565
  1,654
  1,749
  1,847
  1,950
  2,059
  2,172
  2,291
Total liabilities, $m
  447
  483
  520
  559
  599
  641
  685
  730
  778
  827
  878
  931
  987
  1,045
  1,105
  1,168
  1,234
  1,302
  1,374
  1,449
  1,528
  1,610
  1,695
  1,785
  1,879
  1,978
  2,081
  2,189
  2,303
  2,422
Total equity, $m
  183
  198
  213
  229
  246
  263
  281
  300
  319
  339
  360
  382
  405
  429
  454
  479
  506
  535
  564
  595
  627
  661
  696
  733
  771
  812
  854
  899
  945
  994
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  630
  681
  733
  788
  845
  904
  966
  1,030
  1,097
  1,166
  1,238
  1,313
  1,392
  1,474
  1,559
  1,647
  1,740
  1,837
  1,938
  2,044
  2,155
  2,271
  2,391
  2,518
  2,650
  2,790
  2,935
  3,088
  3,248
  3,416
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.720
  1.780
  1.820
  1.870
  1.900
  1.940
  1.970
  2.000
  2.030
  2.050
  2.070
  2.090
  2.110
  2.130
  2.150
  2.160
  2.180
  2.190
  2.200
  2.220
  2.230
  2.240
  2.250
  2.260
  2.270
  2.280
  2.280
  2.290
  2.300
  2.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  56
  59
  61
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  90
  96
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  213
  225
  236
  248
Funds from operations, $m
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
  260
  273
  287
  302
  317
  333
  350
  368
  386
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
Cash from operations, $m
  89
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  152
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
  328
  345
  362
  380
  400
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -225
  -236
New CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -206
  -217
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -293
  -307
  -324
  -340
Free cash flow, $m
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
  73
  76
  73
  77
  81
  84
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
  170
  179
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
Discount rate, %
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  34
  33
  32
  30
  29
  27
  25
  23
  21
  19
  15
  13
  11
  10
  8
  7
  6
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. is a holding company and conducts all of its operations through its subsidiary, Carrols Corporation (Carrols) and Carrols' subsidiary, Carrols LLC. The Company is a restaurant company and Burger King franchisee in the United States. As of January 1, 2017, the Company had owned and operated 753 Burger King restaurants under the name Burger King in 16 Northeastern, Midwestern and Southeastern states. Burger King restaurants feature the flame-broiled Whopper sandwich, as well as a range of hamburgers, chicken and other specialty sandwiches, French fries, salads, breakfast items, hot dogs, snacks, smoothies, frappes and other offerings. The Company's Burger King restaurants are located in various states, such as Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia and West Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Carrols Restaurant Group (TAST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.3
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6
Price to Free Cash Flow -11.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 64.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 140.6%
Total Debt to Equity 141.9%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 19.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Total Capital 13.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Return On Equity 34.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
EBITDA Margin 8.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Operating Margin 3.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Net Profit Margin 4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Effective Tax Rate -164.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -70.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

TAST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TAST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1088.532 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Carrols Restaurant Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Carrols Restaurant Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TAST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for TAST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Carrols Restaurant Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Carrols Restaurant Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TAST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TAST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.7% for Carrols Restaurant Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Carrols Restaurant Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TAST stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TAST are equal to 33%.

Life of production assets of 8.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Carrols Restaurant Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TAST is equal to -4.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $169.06 million for Carrols Restaurant Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.539 million for Carrols Restaurant Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Carrols Restaurant Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Carrols Restaurant: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:35AM  Associated Press]
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▶ Carrols Restaurant: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:58AM  Associated Press]
▶ Preview: Carrols Restaurant Group's Q2 Earnings   [Aug-06-18 03:32PM  Benzinga]
▶ Top 10 Stocks Under $20   [Jul-25-18 03:43PM  Zacks]
▶ Carrols Restaurant Group Cooks Up Another Tasty Quarter   [May-08-18 06:49PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Carrols Restaurant: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Stock Picks for the Week of March 19th   [Mar-19-18 04:29PM  Zacks]
▶ Carrols Restaurant Group Serves Delicious Growth   [Mar-01-18 09:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Carrols Restaurant posts 4Q profit   [Feb-28-18 08:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Top Growth Stocks to Buy in January   [Jan-12-18 08:01PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Carrols Restaurant Group Delivers an Encouraging Mix   [Nov-09-17 05:46PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Carrols Restaurant posts 3Q profit   [Nov-08-17 07:22AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Growth Stocks at Value Stock Prices   [Nov-06-17 04:48PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Bear of the Day: Carrols (TAST)   [06:42AM  Zacks]

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