Intrinsic value of TransDigm Group - TDG

Previous Close

$368.59

  Intrinsic Value

$77.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-79%

Previous close

$368.59

 
Intrinsic value

$77.28

 
Up/down potential

-79%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TDG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 19.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  3,827
  4,163
  4,512
  4,876
  5,254
  5,647
  6,056
  6,480
  6,921
  7,380
  7,857
  8,354
  8,870
  9,409
  9,969
  10,554
  11,164
  11,800
  12,465
  13,159
  13,884
  14,642
  15,435
  16,264
  17,131
  18,040
  18,991
  19,986
  21,030
  22,123
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,320
  1,371
  1,423
  1,478
  1,535
  1,594
  1,655
  1,719
  1,785
  1,854
  1,179
  1,253
  1,331
  1,412
  1,496
  1,583
  1,675
  1,770
  1,870
  1,974
  2,083
  2,197
  2,316
  2,440
  2,570
  2,706
  2,849
  2,998
  3,155
  3,319
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  786
  803
  821
  839
  857
  876
  896
  915
  935
  956
  977
  998
  1,020
  1,043
  1,066
  1,089
  1,113
  1,138
  1,163
  1,188
  1,214
  1,241
  1,269
  1,296
  1,325
  1,354
  1,384
  1,414
  1,445
  1,477
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,106
  2,174
  2,244
  2,317
  2,392
  2,470
  2,551
  2,634
  2,720
  2,810
  2,156
  2,251
  2,351
  2,455
  2,562
  2,672
  2,788
  2,908
  3,033
  3,162
  3,297
  3,438
  3,585
  3,736
  3,895
  4,060
  4,233
  4,412
  4,600
  4,796
Operating income, $m
  1,720
  1,989
  2,268
  2,559
  2,862
  3,178
  3,505
  3,846
  4,201
  4,571
  5,701
  6,102
  6,519
  6,954
  7,408
  7,881
  8,376
  8,892
  9,432
  9,996
  10,586
  11,204
  11,850
  12,527
  13,236
  13,979
  14,758
  15,574
  16,429
  17,327
EBITDA, $m
  2,614
  2,895
  3,188
  3,493
  3,811
  4,141
  4,485
  4,842
  5,214
  5,601
  6,004
  6,423
  6,860
  7,316
  7,791
  8,287
  8,805
  9,346
  9,911
  10,502
  11,121
  11,767
  12,444
  13,153
  13,895
  14,673
  15,488
  16,342
  17,238
  18,178
Interest expense (income), $m
  588
  647
  475
  521
  570
  620
  673
  727
  784
  843
  904
  967
  1,034
  1,102
  1,174
  1,249
  1,326
  1,408
  1,492
  1,580
  1,672
  1,769
  1,869
  1,974
  2,084
  2,199
  2,320
  2,445
  2,577
  2,715
  2,860
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,073
  1,514
  1,747
  1,990
  2,242
  2,505
  2,778
  3,063
  3,359
  3,667
  4,734
  5,068
  5,417
  5,780
  6,159
  6,555
  6,968
  7,400
  7,852
  8,324
  8,818
  9,335
  9,876
  10,443
  11,037
  11,660
  12,312
  12,996
  13,714
  14,467
Tax expense, $m
  290
  409
  472
  537
  605
  676
  750
  827
  907
  990
  1,278
  1,368
  1,463
  1,561
  1,663
  1,770
  1,881
  1,998
  2,120
  2,247
  2,381
  2,520
  2,667
  2,820
  2,980
  3,148
  3,324
  3,509
  3,703
  3,906
Net income, $m
  784
  1,105
  1,275
  1,452
  1,637
  1,829
  2,028
  2,236
  2,452
  2,677
  3,456
  3,700
  3,954
  4,219
  4,496
  4,785
  5,087
  5,402
  5,732
  6,076
  6,437
  6,814
  7,210
  7,623
  8,057
  8,512
  8,988
  9,487
  10,011
  10,561

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  10,719
  11,660
  12,640
  13,659
  14,718
  15,819
  16,963
  18,152
  19,388
  20,673
  22,009
  23,400
  24,847
  26,355
  27,926
  29,563
  31,272
  33,054
  34,915
  36,859
  38,890
  41,014
  43,234
  45,557
  47,987
  50,531
  53,195
  55,985
  58,907
  61,969
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  10,719
  11,660
  12,640
  13,659
  14,718
  15,819
  16,963
  18,152
  19,388
  20,673
  22,009
  23,400
  24,847
  26,355
  27,926
  29,563
  31,272
  33,054
  34,915
  36,859
  38,890
  41,014
  43,234
  45,557
  47,987
  50,531
  53,195
  55,985
  58,907
  61,969
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
  0.357
Average production assets, $m
  4,416
  4,804
  5,207
  5,627
  6,064
  6,517
  6,988
  7,478
  7,987
  8,517
  9,067
  9,640
  10,236
  10,858
  11,505
  12,179
  12,883
  13,618
  14,384
  15,185
  16,022
  16,897
  17,811
  18,768
  19,770
  20,818
  21,915
  23,064
  24,268
  25,530
Working capital, $m
  1,071
  1,166
  1,263
  1,365
  1,471
  1,581
  1,696
  1,814
  1,938
  2,066
  2,200
  2,339
  2,484
  2,634
  2,791
  2,955
  3,126
  3,304
  3,490
  3,684
  3,887
  4,100
  4,322
  4,554
  4,797
  5,051
  5,317
  5,596
  5,888
  6,194
Total debt, $m
  8,631
  9,479
  10,360
  11,277
  12,231
  13,222
  14,251
  15,321
  16,433
  17,590
  18,793
  20,044
  21,347
  22,704
  24,118
  25,592
  27,129
  28,733
  30,408
  32,158
  33,986
  35,897
  37,895
  39,985
  42,173
  44,462
  46,860
  49,370
  52,001
  54,756
Total liabilities, $m
  9,647
  10,494
  11,376
  12,293
  13,246
  14,237
  15,267
  16,337
  17,449
  18,605
  19,808
  21,060
  22,362
  23,719
  25,133
  26,607
  28,145
  29,749
  31,424
  33,173
  35,001
  36,912
  38,911
  41,001
  43,188
  45,478
  47,875
  50,386
  53,016
  55,772
Total equity, $m
  1,072
  1,166
  1,264
  1,366
  1,472
  1,582
  1,696
  1,815
  1,939
  2,067
  2,201
  2,340
  2,485
  2,635
  2,793
  2,956
  3,127
  3,305
  3,492
  3,686
  3,889
  4,101
  4,323
  4,556
  4,799
  5,053
  5,319
  5,598
  5,891
  6,197
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  10,719
  11,660
  12,640
  13,659
  14,718
  15,819
  16,963
  18,152
  19,388
  20,672
  22,009
  23,400
  24,847
  26,354
  27,926
  29,563
  31,272
  33,054
  34,916
  36,859
  38,890
  41,013
  43,234
  45,557
  47,987
  50,531
  53,194
  55,984
  58,907
  61,969
Debt-to-equity ratio
  8.050
  8.130
  8.200
  8.260
  8.310
  8.360
  8.400
  8.440
  8.480
  8.510
  8.540
  8.570
  8.590
  8.610
  8.640
  8.660
  8.680
  8.690
  8.710
  8.720
  8.740
  8.750
  8.770
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
  8.820
  8.830
  8.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  784
  1,105
  1,275
  1,452
  1,637
  1,829
  2,028
  2,236
  2,452
  2,677
  3,456
  3,700
  3,954
  4,219
  4,496
  4,785
  5,087
  5,402
  5,732
  6,076
  6,437
  6,814
  7,210
  7,623
  8,057
  8,512
  8,988
  9,487
  10,011
  10,561
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  894
  906
  920
  934
  948
  964
  979
  996
  1,013
  1,030
  302
  321
  341
  362
  383
  406
  429
  454
  479
  506
  534
  563
  594
  626
  659
  694
  731
  769
  809
  851
Funds from operations, $m
  1,677
  2,012
  2,195
  2,386
  2,585
  2,792
  3,007
  3,231
  3,464
  3,707
  3,758
  4,021
  4,295
  4,581
  4,880
  5,191
  5,516
  5,856
  6,211
  6,583
  6,971
  7,378
  7,803
  8,249
  8,716
  9,205
  9,718
  10,256
  10,820
  11,412
Change in working capital, $m
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  292
  306
Cash from operations, $m
  1,587
  1,918
  2,097
  2,284
  2,479
  2,682
  2,893
  3,113
  3,341
  3,579
  3,624
  3,882
  4,151
  4,431
  4,723
  5,027
  5,346
  5,678
  6,025
  6,388
  6,768
  7,165
  7,581
  8,017
  8,473
  8,951
  9,452
  9,977
  10,528
  11,105
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -135
  -147
  -160
  -174
  -188
  -202
  -217
  -233
  -249
  -266
  -284
  -302
  -321
  -341
  -362
  -383
  -406
  -429
  -454
  -479
  -506
  -534
  -563
  -594
  -626
  -659
  -694
  -731
  -769
  -809
New CAPEX, $m
  -371
  -388
  -404
  -420
  -436
  -454
  -471
  -490
  -509
  -529
  -551
  -573
  -596
  -621
  -647
  -675
  -704
  -734
  -767
  -801
  -837
  -875
  -915
  -957
  -1,001
  -1,048
  -1,097
  -1,149
  -1,204
  -1,261
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -506
  -535
  -564
  -594
  -624
  -656
  -688
  -723
  -758
  -795
  -835
  -875
  -917
  -962
  -1,009
  -1,058
  -1,110
  -1,163
  -1,221
  -1,280
  -1,343
  -1,409
  -1,478
  -1,551
  -1,627
  -1,707
  -1,791
  -1,880
  -1,973
  -2,070
Free cash flow, $m
  1,081
  1,383
  1,533
  1,691
  1,855
  2,026
  2,204
  2,390
  2,582
  2,783
  2,790
  3,007
  3,233
  3,468
  3,714
  3,969
  4,236
  4,514
  4,805
  5,108
  5,425
  5,757
  6,103
  6,466
  6,846
  7,244
  7,661
  8,098
  8,555
  9,035
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3,131
  847
  882
  917
  953
  991
  1,030
  1,070
  1,112
  1,156
  1,203
  1,251
  1,303
  1,357
  1,414
  1,474
  1,537
  1,604
  1,675
  1,749
  1,828
  1,911
  1,998
  2,090
  2,187
  2,290
  2,397
  2,511
  2,630
  2,756
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3,240
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  109
  847
  882
  917
  953
  991
  1,030
  1,070
  1,112
  1,156
  1,203
  1,251
  1,303
  1,357
  1,414
  1,474
  1,537
  1,604
  1,675
  1,749
  1,828
  1,911
  1,998
  2,090
  2,187
  2,290
  2,397
  2,511
  2,630
  2,756
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,189
  2,230
  2,415
  2,608
  2,809
  3,017
  3,234
  3,460
  3,695
  3,939
  3,993
  4,259
  4,536
  4,825
  5,127
  5,443
  5,773
  6,118
  6,479
  6,857
  7,253
  7,668
  8,102
  8,557
  9,034
  9,534
  10,058
  10,608
  11,185
  11,791
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4,023
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -128
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -306
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -2,834
  2,135
  2,317
  2,506
  2,703
  2,907
  3,120
  3,341
  3,571
  3,811
  3,859
  4,120
  4,391
  4,674
  4,970
  5,279
  5,602
  5,940
  6,293
  6,663
  7,050
  7,455
  7,880
  8,324
  8,791
  9,279
  9,792
  10,329
  10,893
  11,485
Discount rate, %
  14.80
  15.54
  16.32
  17.13
  17.99
  18.89
  19.83
  20.83
  21.87
  22.96
  24.11
  25.31
  26.58
  27.91
  29.30
  30.77
  32.31
  33.92
  35.62
  37.40
  39.27
  41.23
  43.29
  45.46
  47.73
  50.12
  52.62
  55.26
  58.02
  60.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -2,469
  1,600
  1,472
  1,331
  1,182
  1,029
  879
  736
  602
  482
  359
  275
  205
  149
  105
  72
  48
  31
  19
  12
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

TransDigm Group Incorporated is a designer, producer and supplier of engineered aircraft components for use on commercial and military aircraft in service. The Company operates through three segments: Power & Control, Airframe and Non-aviation. The Power & Control segment includes operations that primarily develop, produce and market systems and components that provide power to or control power of the aircraft utilizing electronic, fluid, power and mechanical motion control technologies. The Airframe segment includes operations that primarily develop and market systems and components that are used in non-power airframe applications utilizing airframe and cabin structure technologies. The Non-aviation segment includes operations that primarily develop, produce and market products for non-aviation markets. Its product offerings include mechanical/electro-mechanical actuators and controls, engineered latching and locking devices, and seat belts and safety restraints.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TransDigm Group (TDG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.1
Price to Sales 5.5
Price to Book -6.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 61.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -386.1%
Total Debt to Equity -398.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Total Capital 6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Equity -33.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.7%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.7%
EBITDA Margin 44.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.9%
Operating Margin 42.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Net Profit Margin 17%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Effective Tax Rate 24.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.1%
Payout Ratio 432.5%

TDG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TDG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3504.286 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TransDigm Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of TransDigm Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TDG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.8%, whose default value for TDG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TransDigm Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TransDigm Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TDG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 36.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $769 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TDG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for TransDigm Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TransDigm Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TDG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TDG are equal to 115.4%.

Life of production assets of 55.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TransDigm Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TDG is equal to 28%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-2951.204 million for TransDigm Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 52.629 million for TransDigm Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TransDigm Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $19.4 billion.

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