Intrinsic value of Teladoc - TDOC

Previous Close

$57.40

  Intrinsic Value

$25.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-56%

Previous close

$57.40

 
Intrinsic value

$25.41

 
Up/down potential

-56%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TDOC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  434
  671
  1,003
  1,455
  2,053
  2,822
  3,788
  4,974
  6,401
  8,084
  10,039
  12,274
  14,794
  17,602
  20,697
  24,075
  27,733
  31,663
  35,860
  40,317
  45,029
  49,990
  55,198
  60,648
  66,341
  72,278
  78,460
  84,892
  91,581
  98,532
Variable operating expenses, $m
  358
  517
  740
  1,044
  1,446
  1,963
  2,613
  3,410
  4,369
  5,501
  6,749
  8,252
  9,946
  11,834
  13,915
  16,186
  18,645
  21,287
  24,109
  27,106
  30,273
  33,609
  37,110
  40,774
  44,602
  48,593
  52,749
  57,074
  61,570
  66,244
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
Total operating expenses, $m
  383
  542
  766
  1,070
  1,473
  1,990
  2,641
  3,439
  4,398
  5,531
  6,779
  8,283
  9,978
  11,867
  13,948
  16,220
  18,680
  21,323
  24,145
  27,143
  30,311
  33,648
  37,150
  40,814
  44,643
  48,635
  52,792
  57,118
  61,615
  66,290
Operating income, $m
  52
  129
  237
  385
  580
  832
  1,148
  1,536
  2,002
  2,554
  3,259
  3,991
  4,816
  5,735
  6,749
  7,855
  9,053
  10,340
  11,715
  13,175
  14,718
  16,343
  18,048
  19,833
  21,698
  23,642
  25,667
  27,774
  29,965
  32,242
EBITDA, $m
  133
  219
  339
  503
  720
  999
  1,350
  1,780
  2,298
  2,910
  3,620
  4,432
  5,348
  6,368
  7,493
  8,721
  10,050
  11,478
  13,004
  14,624
  16,336
  18,140
  20,032
  22,014
  24,083
  26,241
  28,488
  30,826
  33,257
  35,784
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  29
  51
  83
  129
  190
  272
  377
  508
  670
  865
  1,094
  1,361
  1,665
  2,009
  2,392
  2,814
  3,274
  3,773
  4,309
  4,881
  5,489
  6,131
  6,807
  7,517
  8,260
  9,036
  9,846
  10,689
  11,566
  12,477
Earnings before tax, $m
  23
  78
  154
  256
  390
  560
  771
  1,027
  1,332
  1,689
  2,165
  2,630
  3,151
  3,727
  4,357
  5,042
  5,779
  6,567
  7,406
  8,294
  9,229
  10,212
  11,241
  12,316
  13,438
  14,606
  15,822
  17,086
  18,399
  19,764
Tax expense, $m
  6
  21
  42
  69
  105
  151
  208
  277
  360
  456
  585
  710
  851
  1,006
  1,176
  1,361
  1,560
  1,773
  2,000
  2,239
  2,492
  2,757
  3,035
  3,325
  3,628
  3,944
  4,272
  4,613
  4,968
  5,336
Net income, $m
  17
  57
  112
  187
  285
  409
  563
  750
  973
  1,233
  1,581
  1,920
  2,300
  2,720
  3,181
  3,680
  4,219
  4,794
  5,406
  6,054
  6,737
  7,455
  8,206
  8,991
  9,810
  10,662
  11,550
  12,473
  13,432
  14,428

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,189
  1,837
  2,747
  3,986
  5,624
  7,732
  10,379
  13,628
  17,536
  22,149
  27,504
  33,627
  40,531
  48,224
  56,703
  65,960
  75,980
  86,748
  98,247
  110,458
  123,367
  136,960
  151,226
  166,159
  181,757
  198,021
  214,959
  232,582
  250,906
  269,951
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,189
  1,837
  2,747
  3,986
  5,624
  7,732
  10,379
  13,628
  17,536
  22,149
  27,504
  33,627
  40,531
  48,224
  56,703
  65,960
  75,980
  86,748
  98,247
  110,458
  123,367
  136,960
  151,226
  166,159
  181,757
  198,021
  214,959
  232,582
  250,906
  269,951
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
Average production assets, $m
  362
  559
  836
  1,214
  1,712
  2,354
  3,159
  4,148
  5,338
  6,742
  8,373
  10,236
  12,338
  14,680
  17,261
  20,079
  23,129
  26,407
  29,907
  33,625
  37,554
  41,692
  46,035
  50,580
  55,329
  60,280
  65,436
  70,800
  76,378
  82,176
Working capital, $m
  -10
  -16
  -24
  -35
  -49
  -68
  -91
  -119
  -154
  -194
  -241
  -295
  -355
  -422
  -497
  -578
  -666
  -760
  -861
  -968
  -1,081
  -1,200
  -1,325
  -1,456
  -1,592
  -1,735
  -1,883
  -2,037
  -2,198
  -2,365
Total debt, $m
  368
  600
  925
  1,369
  1,955
  2,710
  3,657
  4,821
  6,220
  7,871
  9,788
  11,980
  14,452
  17,206
  20,242
  23,555
  27,143
  30,998
  35,114
  39,486
  44,107
  48,974
  54,081
  59,427
  65,011
  70,833
  76,897
  83,206
  89,766
  96,584
Total liabilities, $m
  426
  658
  984
  1,427
  2,013
  2,768
  3,716
  4,879
  6,278
  7,929
  9,847
  12,038
  14,510
  17,264
  20,300
  23,614
  27,201
  31,056
  35,172
  39,544
  44,166
  49,032
  54,139
  59,485
  65,069
  70,892
  76,955
  83,264
  89,824
  96,642
Total equity, $m
  763
  1,179
  1,764
  2,559
  3,611
  4,964
  6,663
  8,749
  11,258
  14,220
  17,658
  21,588
  26,021
  30,960
  36,403
  42,346
  48,779
  55,692
  63,074
  70,914
  79,202
  87,928
  97,087
  106,674
  116,688
  127,130
  138,004
  149,318
  161,081
  173,308
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,189
  1,837
  2,748
  3,986
  5,624
  7,732
  10,379
  13,628
  17,536
  22,149
  27,505
  33,626
  40,531
  48,224
  56,703
  65,960
  75,980
  86,748
  98,246
  110,458
  123,368
  136,960
  151,226
  166,159
  181,757
  198,022
  214,959
  232,582
  250,905
  269,950
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.480
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  17
  57
  112
  187
  285
  409
  563
  750
  973
  1,233
  1,581
  1,920
  2,300
  2,720
  3,181
  3,680
  4,219
  4,794
  5,406
  6,054
  6,737
  7,455
  8,206
  8,991
  9,810
  10,662
  11,550
  12,473
  13,432
  14,428
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  81
  90
  102
  118
  140
  167
  202
  245
  296
  356
  361
  441
  532
  633
  744
  865
  997
  1,138
  1,289
  1,449
  1,619
  1,797
  1,984
  2,180
  2,385
  2,598
  2,821
  3,052
  3,292
  3,542
Funds from operations, $m
  98
  147
  214
  305
  424
  576
  765
  995
  1,269
  1,589
  1,941
  2,361
  2,832
  3,353
  3,925
  4,546
  5,215
  5,932
  6,696
  7,504
  8,356
  9,252
  10,190
  11,171
  12,194
  13,261
  14,370
  15,524
  16,724
  17,970
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -167
Cash from operations, $m
  102
  152
  222
  316
  439
  594
  788
  1,023
  1,303
  1,630
  1,988
  2,415
  2,892
  3,421
  3,999
  4,627
  5,303
  6,027
  6,796
  7,611
  8,469
  9,371
  10,315
  11,302
  12,331
  13,403
  14,519
  15,679
  16,884
  18,137
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -16
  -24
  -36
  -52
  -74
  -101
  -136
  -179
  -230
  -291
  -361
  -441
  -532
  -633
  -744
  -865
  -997
  -1,138
  -1,289
  -1,449
  -1,619
  -1,797
  -1,984
  -2,180
  -2,385
  -2,598
  -2,821
  -3,052
  -3,292
New CAPEX, $m
  -136
  -197
  -277
  -377
  -499
  -642
  -806
  -989
  -1,190
  -1,404
  -1,630
  -1,864
  -2,102
  -2,342
  -2,581
  -2,818
  -3,050
  -3,278
  -3,500
  -3,717
  -3,930
  -4,138
  -4,343
  -4,546
  -4,748
  -4,951
  -5,156
  -5,365
  -5,578
  -5,798
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -146
  -213
  -301
  -413
  -551
  -716
  -907
  -1,125
  -1,369
  -1,634
  -1,921
  -2,225
  -2,543
  -2,874
  -3,214
  -3,562
  -3,915
  -4,275
  -4,638
  -5,006
  -5,379
  -5,757
  -6,140
  -6,530
  -6,928
  -7,336
  -7,754
  -8,186
  -8,630
  -9,090
Free cash flow, $m
  -43
  -61
  -79
  -97
  -112
  -121
  -119
  -102
  -66
  -5
  68
  190
  349
  547
  785
  1,065
  1,387
  1,752
  2,158
  2,604
  3,090
  3,614
  4,175
  4,772
  5,403
  6,067
  6,764
  7,494
  8,255
  9,047
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  160
  232
  326
  444
  586
  755
  947
  1,163
  1,399
  1,652
  1,917
  2,192
  2,472
  2,754
  3,035
  3,314
  3,587
  3,855
  4,117
  4,372
  4,621
  4,866
  5,107
  5,346
  5,584
  5,823
  6,064
  6,309
  6,560
  6,818
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  270
  359
  472
  608
  767
  945
  1,136
  1,336
  1,536
  1,729
  1,857
  2,010
  2,133
  2,218
  2,263
  2,262
  2,215
  2,119
  1,976
  1,786
  1,550
  1,272
  953
  596
  204
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  430
  591
  798
  1,052
  1,353
  1,700
  2,083
  2,499
  2,935
  3,381
  3,774
  4,202
  4,605
  4,972
  5,298
  5,576
  5,802
  5,974
  6,093
  6,158
  6,171
  6,138
  6,060
  5,942
  5,788
  5,823
  6,064
  6,309
  6,560
  6,818
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  386
  531
  719
  955
  1,241
  1,578
  1,965
  2,397
  2,870
  3,376
  3,842
  4,393
  4,954
  5,519
  6,083
  6,641
  7,189
  7,726
  8,250
  8,762
  9,262
  9,752
  10,236
  10,714
  11,191
  11,890
  12,828
  13,803
  14,814
  15,865
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -286
  -416
  -584
  -795
  -1,051
  -1,353
  -1,699
  -2,086
  -2,509
  -2,962
  -3,438
  -3,931
  -4,433
  -4,939
  -5,443
  -5,943
  -6,433
  -6,913
  -7,382
  -7,840
  -8,288
  -8,726
  -9,159
  -9,587
  -10,014
  -10,442
  -10,874
  -11,314
  -11,764
  -12,227
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  182
  115
  135
  159
  189
  225
  266
  311
  361
  414
  404
  462
  521
  581
  640
  699
  756
  813
  868
  922
  974
  1,026
  1,077
  1,127
  1,177
  1,448
  1,954
  2,489
  3,051
  3,638
Discount rate, %
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
  25.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  171
  101
  110
  120
  131
  141
  151
  158
  162
  163
  138
  135
  129
  121
  110
  97
  85
  72
  59
  48
  38
  29
  22
  16
  12
  9
  8
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  92.7
  86.9
  82.3
  78.5
  75.4
  72.7
  70.4
  68.5
  66.9
  65.5
  64.3
  63.3
  62.4
  61.7
  61.1
  60.5
  60.1
  59.7
  59.4
  59.2
  59.0
  58.9
  58.8
  58.7
  58.7
  58.7
  58.7
  58.7
  58.7
  58.7

Teladoc, Inc. is a telehealth company. The Company offers telehealth platform, delivering on-demand healthcare anytime, anywhere, through mobile devices, the Internet, video and phone. The Company's solution connects its Members, with its over 3,000 board certified physicians and behavioral health professionals treating a range of conditions and cases from acute diagnoses, such as upper respiratory infection, urinary tract infection and sinusitis to dermatological conditions, anxiety and smoking cessation. As of July 17, 2017, it served over 7,500 employers, health plans, health systems and other entities. As of July 17, 2017, these clients collectively purchased access to its solution for more than 20 million Members. As of December 31, 2016, it had over 30 health plans as Clients. Its solutions consist of an integrated technology platform, Provider network, consumer engagement strategies and entrenched distribution channels.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Teladoc (TDOC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -35.8
Price to Sales 21.6
Price to Book 11.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -51
Price to Free Cash Flow -48.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 59.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -62.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 33
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 18.2%
Total Debt to Equity 19%
Interest Coverage -36
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -27%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.5%
Return On Total Capital -30.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -35%
Return On Equity -36.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.4%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 74%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.7%
EBITDA Margin -52%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -50%
Operating Margin -57.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -54.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -60.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -58%
Net Profit Margin -60.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -58%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

TDOC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TDOC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $271.263 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Teladoc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Teladoc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TDOC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.3%, whose default value for TDOC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Teladoc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Teladoc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TDOC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $24 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TDOC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 13.9% for Teladoc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Teladoc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TDOC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TDOC are equal to 83.4%.

Life of production assets of 23.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Teladoc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TDOC is equal to -2.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $558.903 million for Teladoc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 69.543 million for Teladoc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Teladoc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.0 billion.

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