Intrinsic value of Atlassian Corporation Plc - TEAM

Previous Close

$111.22

  Intrinsic Value

$26.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-76%

Previous close

$111.22

 
Intrinsic value

$26.30

 
Up/down potential

-76%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TEAM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 26.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  41.00
  37.40
  34.16
  31.24
  28.62
  26.26
  24.13
  22.22
  20.50
  18.95
  17.55
  16.30
  15.17
  14.15
  13.24
  12.41
  11.67
  11.00
  10.40
  9.86
  9.38
  8.94
  8.55
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.33
  7.09
  6.88
  6.70
Revenue, $m
  1,232
  1,693
  2,272
  2,981
  3,835
  4,842
  6,010
  7,345
  8,851
  10,528
  12,376
  14,392
  16,575
  18,921
  21,425
  24,085
  26,896
  29,855
  32,961
  36,212
  39,608
  43,148
  46,835
  50,671
  54,660
  58,806
  63,114
  67,590
  72,243
  77,081
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,185
  1,626
  2,179
  2,859
  3,675
  4,639
  5,757
  7,035
  8,476
  10,081
  11,844
  13,774
  15,864
  18,108
  20,505
  23,050
  25,740
  28,573
  31,545
  34,657
  37,906
  41,295
  44,824
  48,495
  52,312
  56,280
  60,403
  64,687
  69,141
  73,770
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  100
  102
  105
  107
  109
  112
  114
  117
  119
  122
  125
  127
  130
  133
  136
  139
  142
  145
  148
  152
  155
  158
  162
  165
  169
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,275
  1,718
  2,273
  2,955
  3,773
  4,739
  5,859
  7,140
  8,583
  10,190
  11,956
  13,888
  15,981
  18,227
  20,627
  23,175
  25,867
  28,703
  31,678
  34,793
  38,045
  41,437
  44,969
  48,643
  52,464
  56,435
  60,561
  64,849
  69,306
  73,939
Operating income, $m
  -42
  -24
  -2
  27
  61
  102
  150
  206
  268
  338
  420
  504
  595
  693
  798
  910
  1,028
  1,152
  1,283
  1,419
  1,562
  1,711
  1,866
  2,028
  2,196
  2,371
  2,552
  2,741
  2,937
  3,142
EBITDA, $m
  24
  65
  117
  181
  258
  349
  455
  577
  714
  867
  1,036
  1,221
  1,421
  1,636
  1,866
  2,110
  2,368
  2,640
  2,925
  3,224
  3,536
  3,861
  4,200
  4,553
  4,919
  5,301
  5,697
  6,109
  6,537
  6,982
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  44
  41
  70
  107
  153
  207
  272
  347
  432
  529
  637
  755
  884
  1,024
  1,175
  1,335
  1,506
  1,686
  1,876
  2,075
  2,283
  2,501
  2,728
  2,964
  3,210
  3,466
  3,732
  4,008
  4,295
  4,594
Earnings before tax, $m
  -86
  -65
  -72
  -80
  -91
  -105
  -122
  -141
  -165
  -191
  -217
  -251
  -289
  -331
  -376
  -425
  -478
  -534
  -593
  -656
  -721
  -790
  -862
  -936
  -1,014
  -1,095
  -1,180
  -1,267
  -1,358
  -1,452
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -86
  -65
  -72
  -80
  -91
  -105
  -122
  -141
  -165
  -191
  -217
  -251
  -289
  -331
  -376
  -425
  -478
  -534
  -593
  -656
  -721
  -790
  -862
  -936
  -1,014
  -1,095
  -1,180
  -1,267
  -1,358
  -1,452

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,626
  2,234
  2,997
  3,933
  5,059
  6,387
  7,929
  9,690
  11,676
  13,889
  16,327
  18,987
  21,867
  24,962
  28,266
  31,774
  35,482
  39,387
  43,484
  47,773
  52,253
  56,924
  61,788
  66,849
  72,111
  77,580
  83,263
  89,169
  95,308
  101,689
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,626
  2,234
  2,997
  3,933
  5,059
  6,387
  7,929
  9,690
  11,676
  13,889
  16,327
  18,987
  21,867
  24,962
  28,266
  31,774
  35,482
  39,387
  43,484
  47,773
  52,253
  56,924
  61,788
  66,849
  72,111
  77,580
  83,263
  89,169
  95,308
  101,689
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
  0.758
Average production assets, $m
  350
  481
  645
  847
  1,089
  1,375
  1,707
  2,086
  2,514
  2,990
  3,515
  4,087
  4,707
  5,374
  6,085
  6,840
  7,638
  8,479
  9,361
  10,284
  11,249
  12,254
  13,301
  14,391
  15,523
  16,701
  17,924
  19,196
  20,517
  21,891
Working capital, $m
  -527
  -725
  -972
  -1,276
  -1,641
  -2,072
  -2,572
  -3,144
  -3,788
  -4,506
  -5,297
  -6,160
  -7,094
  -8,098
  -9,170
  -10,308
  -11,511
  -12,778
  -14,107
  -15,499
  -16,952
  -18,467
  -20,045
  -21,687
  -23,394
  -25,169
  -27,013
  -28,929
  -30,920
  -32,991
Total debt, $m
  751
  1,298
  1,985
  2,828
  3,841
  5,036
  6,424
  8,009
  9,797
  11,788
  13,982
  16,377
  18,969
  21,753
  24,727
  27,884
  31,222
  34,736
  38,424
  42,284
  46,315
  50,519
  54,897
  59,452
  64,187
  69,110
  74,225
  79,540
  85,065
  90,808
Total liabilities, $m
  1,463
  2,010
  2,697
  3,540
  4,553
  5,749
  7,136
  8,721
  10,509
  12,500
  14,694
  17,089
  19,681
  22,466
  25,439
  28,597
  31,934
  35,448
  39,136
  42,996
  47,027
  51,231
  55,609
  60,164
  64,900
  69,822
  74,937
  80,253
  85,777
  91,521
Total equity, $m
  163
  223
  300
  393
  506
  639
  793
  969
  1,168
  1,389
  1,633
  1,899
  2,187
  2,496
  2,827
  3,177
  3,548
  3,939
  4,348
  4,777
  5,225
  5,692
  6,179
  6,685
  7,211
  7,758
  8,326
  8,917
  9,531
  10,169
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,626
  2,233
  2,997
  3,933
  5,059
  6,388
  7,929
  9,690
  11,677
  13,889
  16,327
  18,988
  21,868
  24,962
  28,266
  31,774
  35,482
  39,387
  43,484
  47,773
  52,252
  56,923
  61,788
  66,849
  72,111
  77,580
  83,263
  89,170
  95,308
  101,690
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.620
  5.810
  6.620
  7.190
  7.590
  7.890
  8.100
  8.270
  8.390
  8.490
  8.560
  8.620
  8.670
  8.710
  8.750
  8.780
  8.800
  8.820
  8.840
  8.850
  8.860
  8.870
  8.880
  8.890
  8.900
  8.910
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -86
  -65
  -72
  -80
  -91
  -105
  -122
  -141
  -165
  -191
  -217
  -251
  -289
  -331
  -376
  -425
  -478
  -534
  -593
  -656
  -721
  -790
  -862
  -936
  -1,014
  -1,095
  -1,180
  -1,267
  -1,358
  -1,452
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  67
  90
  118
  154
  196
  246
  305
  371
  446
  530
  617
  717
  826
  943
  1,068
  1,200
  1,340
  1,488
  1,642
  1,804
  1,973
  2,150
  2,334
  2,525
  2,723
  2,930
  3,145
  3,368
  3,599
  3,841
Funds from operations, $m
  -20
  25
  47
  73
  105
  141
  183
  230
  282
  338
  400
  466
  537
  612
  691
  775
  862
  954
  1,049
  1,149
  1,252
  1,360
  1,472
  1,588
  1,709
  1,835
  1,965
  2,101
  2,242
  2,389
Change in working capital, $m
  -153
  -197
  -248
  -304
  -365
  -431
  -500
  -572
  -644
  -718
  -791
  -863
  -934
  -1,004
  -1,072
  -1,138
  -1,203
  -1,267
  -1,329
  -1,391
  -1,453
  -1,515
  -1,578
  -1,642
  -1,707
  -1,774
  -1,844
  -1,916
  -1,991
  -2,070
Cash from operations, $m
  134
  222
  294
  377
  470
  572
  683
  801
  926
  1,056
  1,191
  1,329
  1,471
  1,616
  1,763
  1,913
  2,065
  2,220
  2,378
  2,540
  2,706
  2,875
  3,050
  3,230
  3,416
  3,609
  3,809
  4,017
  4,233
  4,459
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -44
  -61
  -84
  -113
  -149
  -191
  -241
  -299
  -366
  -441
  -525
  -617
  -717
  -826
  -943
  -1,068
  -1,200
  -1,340
  -1,488
  -1,642
  -1,804
  -1,973
  -2,150
  -2,334
  -2,525
  -2,723
  -2,930
  -3,145
  -3,368
  -3,599
New CAPEX, $m
  -102
  -131
  -164
  -202
  -242
  -286
  -332
  -379
  -428
  -476
  -525
  -573
  -620
  -666
  -711
  -755
  -798
  -841
  -882
  -923
  -964
  -1,006
  -1,047
  -1,089
  -1,133
  -1,177
  -1,223
  -1,271
  -1,321
  -1,374
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -146
  -192
  -248
  -315
  -391
  -477
  -573
  -678
  -794
  -917
  -1,050
  -1,190
  -1,337
  -1,492
  -1,654
  -1,823
  -1,998
  -2,181
  -2,370
  -2,565
  -2,768
  -2,979
  -3,197
  -3,423
  -3,658
  -3,900
  -4,153
  -4,416
  -4,689
  -4,973
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  30
  46
  62
  79
  95
  110
  123
  132
  139
  141
  140
  134
  124
  109
  90
  67
  40
  9
  -25
  -63
  -104
  -147
  -193
  -241
  -292
  -345
  -399
  -456
  -514
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -69
  547
  687
  843
  1,013
  1,196
  1,387
  1,585
  1,788
  1,991
  2,194
  2,395
  2,592
  2,785
  2,973
  3,158
  3,337
  3,514
  3,688
  3,860
  4,032
  4,204
  4,378
  4,555
  4,736
  4,922
  5,115
  5,316
  5,525
  5,743
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  628
  126
  148
  174
  204
  238
  276
  318
  363
  413
  461
  517
  577
  640
  707
  776
  849
  924
  1,003
  1,084
  1,169
  1,257
  1,348
  1,443
  1,541
  1,642
  1,748
  1,858
  1,972
  2,090
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  559
  673
  835
  1,017
  1,217
  1,434
  1,663
  1,903
  2,151
  2,404
  2,655
  2,912
  3,169
  3,425
  3,680
  3,934
  4,186
  4,438
  4,691
  4,944
  5,201
  5,461
  5,726
  5,998
  6,277
  6,564
  6,863
  7,174
  7,497
  7,833
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  548
  703
  880
  1,079
  1,296
  1,529
  1,773
  2,026
  2,283
  2,543
  2,796
  3,052
  3,303
  3,549
  3,789
  4,024
  4,253
  4,478
  4,700
  4,919
  5,138
  5,357
  5,579
  5,804
  6,035
  6,273
  6,519
  6,774
  7,040
  7,319
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -628
  -126
  -148
  -174
  -204
  -238
  -276
  -318
  -363
  -413
  -461
  -517
  -577
  -640
  -707
  -776
  -849
  -924
  -1,003
  -1,084
  -1,169
  -1,257
  -1,348
  -1,443
  -1,541
  -1,642
  -1,748
  -1,858
  -1,972
  -2,090
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,272
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,192
  577
  732
  905
  1,092
  1,291
  1,497
  1,708
  1,920
  2,130
  2,335
  2,534
  2,726
  2,909
  3,082
  3,247
  3,404
  3,554
  3,697
  3,835
  3,969
  4,100
  4,231
  4,362
  4,495
  4,630
  4,771
  4,916
  5,069
  5,229
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,143
  528
  637
  745
  847
  937
  1,012
  1,068
  1,103
  1,117
  1,109
  1,082
  1,036
  976
  905
  825
  741
  654
  569
  487
  410
  340
  277
  222
  175
  135
  102
  76
  55
  39
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  46.4
  43.5
  41.1
  39.1
  37.4
  35.8
  34.4
  33.2
  32.1
  31.0
  30.1
  29.2
  28.4
  27.6
  26.8
  26.1
  25.5
  24.8
  24.2
  23.7
  23.1
  22.6
  22.1
  21.6
  21.1
  20.6
  20.2
  19.7
  19.3

Atlassian Corporation Plc is a holding company. The Company offers a range of team collaboration products. The Company offers products, including JIRA, Confluence, HipChat, Bitbucket and JIRA Service Desk, for software developers, information technology (IT) managers and knowledge workers. The Company offers JIRA for team planning and project management; Confluence for team content creation and sharing; HipChat for team real-time messaging and communications; Bitbucket for team code sharing and management, and JIRA Service Desk for team service and support applications. JIRA allows teams to organize their work into projects and customize dashboards for those projects to keep their teams aligned and on track. Confluence provides a system for organizing, sharing and securing content in spaces arranged by team, project, department and others. The Company also offers additional tools for software developers, such as FishEye, Clover, Crowd, Crucible, Bamboo and SourceTree.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Atlassian Corporation Plc (TEAM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -587.8
Price to Sales 40.8
Price to Book 28.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 127
Price to Free Cash Flow 138.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 35.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -52.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Return On Total Capital -5.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity -5.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 80.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 82.5%
EBITDA Margin 0.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Operating Margin -10.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Net Profit Margin -6.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 28.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 336.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

TEAM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TEAM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $874 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Atlassian Corporation Plc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Atlassian Corporation Plc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TEAM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 41% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TEAM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Atlassian Corporation Plc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Atlassian Corporation Plc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TEAM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $88 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TEAM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Atlassian Corporation Plc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Atlassian Corporation Plc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TEAM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TEAM are equal to 28.4%.

Life of production assets of 5.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Atlassian Corporation Plc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TEAM is equal to -42.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $892.766 million for Atlassian Corporation Plc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 239.503 million for Atlassian Corporation Plc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Atlassian Corporation Plc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $26.6 billion.

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