Intrinsic value of TerraForm Power - TERP

Previous Close

$11.05

  Intrinsic Value

$0.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$11.05

 
Intrinsic value

$0.52

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TERP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  623
  637
  653
  672
  692
  714
  739
  765
  794
  824
  857
  891
  928
  968
  1,009
  1,054
  1,100
  1,150
  1,202
  1,258
  1,316
  1,377
  1,442
  1,510
  1,582
  1,658
  1,738
  1,822
  1,910
  2,003
Variable operating expenses, $m
  536
  546
  557
  570
  584
  599
  616
  634
  653
  674
  589
  613
  638
  665
  694
  724
  757
  791
  827
  864
  905
  947
  991
  1,038
  1,088
  1,140
  1,195
  1,252
  1,313
  1,377
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  536
  546
  557
  570
  584
  599
  616
  634
  653
  674
  589
  613
  638
  665
  694
  724
  757
  791
  827
  864
  905
  947
  991
  1,038
  1,088
  1,140
  1,195
  1,252
  1,313
  1,377
Operating income, $m
  87
  91
  96
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  140
  150
  268
  279
  290
  302
  315
  329
  344
  359
  376
  393
  411
  430
  451
  472
  495
  518
  543
  569
  597
  626
EBITDA, $m
  424
  433
  445
  457
  471
  486
  503
  521
  540
  561
  583
  606
  632
  658
  687
  717
  749
  782
  818
  856
  895
  937
  981
  1,028
  1,077
  1,128
  1,182
  1,239
  1,299
  1,363
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  248
  256
  264
  272
  282
  293
  305
  319
  333
  348
  365
  382
  401
  421
  442
  465
  489
  514
  541
  569
  599
  630
  663
  698
  735
  774
  815
  858
  903
  951
Earnings before tax, $m
  -161
  -165
  -167
  -170
  -174
  -178
  -182
  -187
  -193
  -198
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -127
  -135
  -145
  -154
  -165
  -176
  -187
  -200
  -213
  -226
  -241
  -256
  -272
  -289
  -306
  -325
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -161
  -165
  -167
  -170
  -174
  -178
  -182
  -187
  -193
  -198
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -127
  -135
  -145
  -154
  -165
  -176
  -187
  -200
  -213
  -226
  -241
  -256
  -272
  -289
  -306
  -325

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,419
  6,567
  6,736
  6,925
  7,135
  7,366
  7,616
  7,888
  8,181
  8,494
  8,830
  9,189
  9,570
  9,976
  10,406
  10,862
  11,345
  11,855
  12,395
  12,964
  13,565
  14,199
  14,867
  15,571
  16,312
  17,093
  17,914
  18,778
  19,688
  20,644
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,419
  6,567
  6,736
  6,925
  7,135
  7,366
  7,616
  7,888
  8,181
  8,494
  8,830
  9,189
  9,570
  9,976
  10,406
  10,862
  11,345
  11,855
  12,395
  12,964
  13,565
  14,199
  14,867
  15,571
  16,312
  17,093
  17,914
  18,778
  19,688
  20,644
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
Average production assets, $m
  5,566
  5,694
  5,841
  6,005
  6,187
  6,387
  6,604
  6,840
  7,093
  7,365
  7,657
  7,967
  8,298
  8,650
  9,023
  9,418
  9,837
  10,280
  10,747
  11,241
  11,762
  12,312
  12,891
  13,501
  14,144
  14,821
  15,533
  16,282
  17,071
  17,900
Working capital, $m
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
Total debt, $m
  3,709
  3,821
  3,949
  4,093
  4,252
  4,427
  4,617
  4,824
  5,046
  5,284
  5,539
  5,811
  6,100
  6,408
  6,735
  7,081
  7,447
  7,835
  8,244
  8,676
  9,133
  9,614
  10,121
  10,655
  11,217
  11,810
  12,433
  13,089
  13,780
  14,506
Total liabilities, $m
  4,872
  4,984
  5,112
  5,256
  5,416
  5,590
  5,781
  5,987
  6,209
  6,447
  6,702
  6,974
  7,264
  7,572
  7,898
  8,244
  8,611
  8,998
  9,408
  9,840
  10,296
  10,777
  11,284
  11,818
  12,381
  12,973
  13,597
  14,253
  14,943
  15,669
Total equity, $m
  1,547
  1,583
  1,623
  1,669
  1,720
  1,775
  1,836
  1,901
  1,972
  2,047
  2,128
  2,214
  2,306
  2,404
  2,508
  2,618
  2,734
  2,857
  2,987
  3,124
  3,269
  3,422
  3,583
  3,753
  3,931
  4,119
  4,317
  4,526
  4,745
  4,975
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,419
  6,567
  6,735
  6,925
  7,136
  7,365
  7,617
  7,888
  8,181
  8,494
  8,830
  9,188
  9,570
  9,976
  10,406
  10,862
  11,345
  11,855
  12,395
  12,964
  13,565
  14,199
  14,867
  15,571
  16,312
  17,092
  17,914
  18,779
  19,688
  20,644
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.400
  2.410
  2.430
  2.450
  2.470
  2.490
  2.520
  2.540
  2.560
  2.580
  2.600
  2.620
  2.640
  2.670
  2.690
  2.700
  2.720
  2.740
  2.760
  2.780
  2.790
  2.810
  2.820
  2.840
  2.850
  2.870
  2.880
  2.890
  2.900
  2.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241
  0.241

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -161
  -165
  -167
  -170
  -174
  -178
  -182
  -187
  -193
  -198
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -127
  -135
  -145
  -154
  -165
  -176
  -187
  -200
  -213
  -226
  -241
  -256
  -272
  -289
  -306
  -325
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  337
  342
  348
  355
  362
  371
  380
  389
  400
  411
  315
  328
  341
  356
  371
  388
  405
  423
  442
  463
  484
  507
  530
  556
  582
  610
  639
  670
  703
  737
Funds from operations, $m
  175
  178
  181
  185
  189
  193
  197
  202
  207
  212
  218
  224
  231
  237
  245
  252
  260
  269
  277
  287
  297
  307
  318
  329
  341
  354
  367
  381
  396
  412
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  175
  177
  181
  184
  188
  193
  197
  202
  207
  212
  218
  224
  230
  237
  244
  252
  260
  268
  277
  286
  296
  306
  317
  329
  341
  353
  367
  381
  395
  411
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -224
  -229
  -234
  -240
  -247
  -255
  -263
  -272
  -281
  -292
  -303
  -315
  -328
  -341
  -356
  -371
  -388
  -405
  -423
  -442
  -463
  -484
  -507
  -530
  -556
  -582
  -610
  -639
  -670
  -703
New CAPEX, $m
  -114
  -128
  -146
  -164
  -182
  -200
  -218
  -235
  -254
  -272
  -291
  -311
  -331
  -352
  -373
  -395
  -419
  -443
  -468
  -494
  -521
  -549
  -579
  -610
  -643
  -677
  -712
  -750
  -789
  -829
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -338
  -357
  -380
  -404
  -429
  -455
  -481
  -507
  -535
  -564
  -594
  -626
  -659
  -693
  -729
  -766
  -807
  -848
  -891
  -936
  -984
  -1,033
  -1,086
  -1,140
  -1,199
  -1,259
  -1,322
  -1,389
  -1,459
  -1,532
Free cash flow, $m
  -163
  -180
  -200
  -220
  -241
  -262
  -283
  -305
  -328
  -352
  -376
  -402
  -428
  -456
  -485
  -515
  -546
  -579
  -614
  -650
  -688
  -727
  -769
  -812
  -858
  -905
  -956
  -1,008
  -1,063
  -1,121
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  110
  112
  128
  144
  159
  175
  190
  206
  222
  238
  255
  272
  290
  308
  327
  346
  366
  387
  409
  432
  456
  481
  507
  534
  563
  592
  624
  656
  690
  726
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  198
  200
  208
  216
  224
  233
  243
  253
  263
  274
  178
  190
  203
  216
  230
  245
  261
  277
  295
  313
  332
  352
  374
  396
  419
  444
  470
  497
  525
  555
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  308
  312
  336
  360
  383
  408
  433
  459
  485
  512
  433
  462
  493
  524
  557
  591
  627
  664
  704
  745
  788
  833
  881
  930
  982
  1,036
  1,094
  1,153
  1,215
  1,281
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  146
  133
  136
  140
  143
  146
  150
  153
  157
  160
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -198
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -224
  -233
  -243
  -253
  -263
  -274
  -178
  -190
  -203
  -216
  -230
  -245
  -261
  -277
  -295
  -313
  -332
  -352
  -374
  -396
  -419
  -444
  -470
  -497
  -525
  -555
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -53
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -192
  -204
  -218
  -232
  -246
  -262
  -278
  -295
  -313
  -332
  -352
  -373
  -395
Discount rate, %
  11.00
  11.55
  12.13
  12.73
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.48
  16.25
  17.06
  17.92
  18.81
  19.75
  20.74
  21.78
  22.87
  24.01
  25.21
  26.47
  27.80
  29.19
  30.65
  32.18
  33.79
  35.48
  37.25
  39.11
  41.07
  43.12
  45.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -47
  -54
  -51
  -47
  -44
  -40
  -36
  -31
  -27
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  92.1
  84.9
  78.2
  71.9
  66.1
  60.7
  55.8
  51.1
  46.9
  43.0
  40.7
  38.4
  36.3
  34.2
  32.2
  30.2
  28.4
  26.6
  24.9
  23.3
  21.8
  20.4
  19.0
  17.7
  16.5
  15.4
  14.3
  13.3
  12.4
  11.5

TerraForm Power, Inc. is a United States-based holding company. The Company owns clean power generation assets. This includes solar and wind assets located in the United States, Canada and other markets. Its clean power generation assets serve utility, commercial and residential customers. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's portfolio consisted of renewable energy facilities located in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Chile with a combined nameplate capacity of 2,983.1 megawatts. It owns and operates over 500 hundred wind and solar clean energy power installations. Its projects include Bluebird, River Mountains Solar, Laho Solar, SunE Perpetual Lindsday, Sandringham, California Public institutions and Summit Solar Projects. The Company holds interest in TerraForm Power, LLC (Terra LLC), which is an owner and operator of renewable energy facilities that have long-term contractual arrangements to sell the electricity generated by these facilities to third parties.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TerraForm Power (TERP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

TERP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TERP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $610.471 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TerraForm Power. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of TerraForm Power. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TERP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11%, whose default value for TERP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TerraForm Power, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TerraForm Power.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TERP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TERP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for TerraForm Power.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TerraForm Power. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TERP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TERP are equal to 893.9%.

Life of production assets of 24.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TerraForm Power operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TERP is equal to 1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1510.369 million for TerraForm Power - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 209.062 million for TerraForm Power is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TerraForm Power at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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