Intrinsic value of Terex - TEX

Previous Close

$31.10

  Intrinsic Value

$3.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$31.10

 
Intrinsic value

$3.17

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TEX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.70
  17.33
  16.10
  14.99
  13.99
  13.09
  12.28
  11.55
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.28
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
Revenue, $m
  5,179
  6,077
  7,055
  8,113
  9,247
  10,458
  11,742
  13,099
  14,526
  16,023
  17,590
  19,226
  20,931
  22,706
  24,553
  26,473
  28,469
  30,543
  32,698
  34,938
  37,267
  39,689
  42,209
  44,832
  47,564
  50,410
  53,376
  56,470
  59,699
  63,069
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,345
  6,266
  7,270
  8,356
  9,520
  10,763
  12,081
  13,473
  14,938
  16,475
  18,055
  19,733
  21,484
  23,306
  25,202
  27,173
  29,221
  31,350
  33,562
  35,861
  38,252
  40,737
  43,324
  46,016
  48,820
  51,741
  54,786
  57,962
  61,276
  64,735
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,345
  6,266
  7,270
  8,356
  9,520
  10,763
  12,081
  13,473
  14,938
  16,475
  18,055
  19,733
  21,484
  23,306
  25,202
  27,173
  29,221
  31,350
  33,562
  35,861
  38,252
  40,737
  43,324
  46,016
  48,820
  51,741
  54,786
  57,962
  61,276
  64,735
Operating income, $m
  -166
  -189
  -215
  -243
  -273
  -305
  -339
  -375
  -412
  -452
  -465
  -508
  -553
  -600
  -649
  -699
  -752
  -807
  -864
  -923
  -984
  -1,048
  -1,115
  -1,184
  -1,256
  -1,331
  -1,410
  -1,492
  -1,577
  -1,666
EBITDA, $m
  -77
  -90
  -105
  -120
  -137
  -155
  -174
  -194
  -216
  -238
  -261
  -285
  -311
  -337
  -364
  -393
  -422
  -453
  -485
  -518
  -553
  -589
  -626
  -665
  -706
  -748
  -792
  -838
  -886
  -936
Interest expense (income), $m
  96
  53
  76
  101
  128
  157
  189
  222
  258
  295
  335
  376
  420
  465
  513
  562
  613
  666
  722
  779
  839
  901
  966
  1,033
  1,103
  1,175
  1,251
  1,330
  1,412
  1,498
  1,588
Earnings before tax, $m
  -219
  -265
  -316
  -371
  -430
  -494
  -561
  -633
  -708
  -787
  -841
  -928
  -1,018
  -1,112
  -1,210
  -1,312
  -1,418
  -1,528
  -1,643
  -1,762
  -1,885
  -2,014
  -2,148
  -2,287
  -2,432
  -2,583
  -2,740
  -2,904
  -3,075
  -3,253
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -219
  -265
  -316
  -371
  -430
  -494
  -561
  -633
  -708
  -787
  -841
  -928
  -1,018
  -1,112
  -1,210
  -1,312
  -1,418
  -1,528
  -1,643
  -1,762
  -1,885
  -2,014
  -2,148
  -2,287
  -2,432
  -2,583
  -2,740
  -2,904
  -3,075
  -3,253

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,111
  4,823
  5,599
  6,439
  7,339
  8,300
  9,319
  10,396
  11,529
  12,717
  13,960
  15,258
  16,612
  18,021
  19,487
  21,011
  22,595
  24,241
  25,951
  27,729
  29,577
  31,499
  33,499
  35,581
  37,749
  40,008
  42,362
  44,818
  47,380
  50,055
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,111
  4,823
  5,599
  6,439
  7,339
  8,300
  9,319
  10,396
  11,529
  12,717
  13,960
  15,258
  16,612
  18,021
  19,487
  21,011
  22,595
  24,241
  25,951
  27,729
  29,577
  31,499
  33,499
  35,581
  37,749
  40,008
  42,362
  44,818
  47,380
  50,055
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
Average production assets, $m
  533
  626
  727
  836
  952
  1,077
  1,209
  1,349
  1,496
  1,650
  1,812
  1,980
  2,156
  2,339
  2,529
  2,727
  2,932
  3,146
  3,368
  3,599
  3,839
  4,088
  4,348
  4,618
  4,899
  5,192
  5,498
  5,816
  6,149
  6,496
Working capital, $m
  860
  1,009
  1,171
  1,347
  1,535
  1,736
  1,949
  2,174
  2,411
  2,660
  2,920
  3,191
  3,475
  3,769
  4,076
  4,395
  4,726
  5,070
  5,428
  5,800
  6,186
  6,588
  7,007
  7,442
  7,896
  8,368
  8,860
  9,374
  9,910
  10,469
Total debt, $m
  1,404
  1,865
  2,367
  2,910
  3,493
  4,114
  4,774
  5,470
  6,203
  6,972
  7,777
  8,617
  9,492
  10,404
  11,352
  12,338
  13,363
  14,428
  15,535
  16,685
  17,881
  19,124
  20,418
  21,765
  23,168
  24,629
  26,153
  27,741
  29,399
  31,130
Total liabilities, $m
  2,660
  3,120
  3,623
  4,166
  4,748
  5,370
  6,029
  6,726
  7,459
  8,228
  9,032
  9,872
  10,748
  11,659
  12,608
  13,594
  14,619
  15,684
  16,790
  17,941
  19,136
  20,380
  21,674
  23,021
  24,424
  25,885
  27,408
  28,997
  30,655
  32,385
Total equity, $m
  1,451
  1,703
  1,977
  2,273
  2,591
  2,930
  3,290
  3,670
  4,070
  4,489
  4,928
  5,386
  5,864
  6,361
  6,879
  7,417
  7,976
  8,557
  9,161
  9,788
  10,441
  11,119
  11,825
  12,560
  13,325
  14,123
  14,954
  15,821
  16,725
  17,669
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,111
  4,823
  5,600
  6,439
  7,339
  8,300
  9,319
  10,396
  11,529
  12,717
  13,960
  15,258
  16,612
  18,020
  19,487
  21,011
  22,595
  24,241
  25,951
  27,729
  29,577
  31,499
  33,499
  35,581
  37,749
  40,008
  42,362
  44,818
  47,380
  50,054
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.970
  1.100
  1.200
  1.280
  1.350
  1.400
  1.450
  1.490
  1.520
  1.550
  1.580
  1.600
  1.620
  1.640
  1.650
  1.660
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.700
  1.710
  1.720
  1.730
  1.730
  1.740
  1.740
  1.750
  1.750
  1.760
  1.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -219
  -265
  -316
  -371
  -430
  -494
  -561
  -633
  -708
  -787
  -841
  -928
  -1,018
  -1,112
  -1,210
  -1,312
  -1,418
  -1,528
  -1,643
  -1,762
  -1,885
  -2,014
  -2,148
  -2,287
  -2,432
  -2,583
  -2,740
  -2,904
  -3,075
  -3,253
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  89
  99
  110
  123
  136
  150
  165
  180
  197
  214
  204
  222
  242
  263
  284
  306
  329
  353
  378
  404
  431
  459
  488
  519
  550
  583
  618
  654
  691
  730
Funds from operations, $m
  -130
  -166
  -205
  -248
  -294
  -344
  -396
  -452
  -511
  -573
  -638
  -705
  -776
  -850
  -926
  -1,006
  -1,089
  -1,175
  -1,264
  -1,357
  -1,454
  -1,555
  -1,659
  -1,768
  -1,881
  -1,999
  -2,122
  -2,250
  -2,384
  -2,524
Change in working capital, $m
  135
  149
  162
  176
  188
  201
  213
  225
  237
  249
  260
  272
  283
  295
  307
  319
  331
  344
  358
  372
  387
  402
  418
  435
  453
  472
  492
  514
  536
  559
Cash from operations, $m
  -265
  -315
  -368
  -424
  -483
  -545
  -610
  -677
  -748
  -821
  -898
  -977
  -1,059
  -1,144
  -1,233
  -1,325
  -1,420
  -1,519
  -1,622
  -1,729
  -1,841
  -1,957
  -2,077
  -2,203
  -2,335
  -2,472
  -2,615
  -2,764
  -2,920
  -3,083
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -50
  -60
  -70
  -82
  -94
  -107
  -121
  -136
  -152
  -168
  -185
  -204
  -222
  -242
  -263
  -284
  -306
  -329
  -353
  -378
  -404
  -431
  -459
  -488
  -519
  -550
  -583
  -618
  -654
  -691
New CAPEX, $m
  -84
  -92
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -222
  -231
  -240
  -249
  -260
  -270
  -281
  -293
  -306
  -319
  -333
  -347
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -134
  -152
  -171
  -191
  -211
  -232
  -253
  -276
  -299
  -322
  -346
  -372
  -398
  -425
  -453
  -482
  -512
  -543
  -575
  -609
  -644
  -680
  -719
  -758
  -800
  -843
  -889
  -937
  -987
  -1,038
Free cash flow, $m
  -400
  -467
  -539
  -614
  -694
  -776
  -863
  -953
  -1,047
  -1,144
  -1,244
  -1,349
  -1,457
  -1,569
  -1,686
  -1,807
  -1,932
  -2,062
  -2,198
  -2,338
  -2,485
  -2,637
  -2,796
  -2,962
  -3,135
  -3,315
  -3,504
  -3,700
  -3,906
  -4,121
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  419
  461
  502
  543
  583
  622
  659
  697
  733
  769
  804
  840
  876
  912
  948
  986
  1,025
  1,065
  1,107
  1,150
  1,196
  1,244
  1,294
  1,347
  1,403
  1,461
  1,523
  1,589
  1,658
  1,731
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  448
  517
  590
  667
  748
  833
  921
  1,013
  1,108
  1,206
  1,280
  1,386
  1,496
  1,610
  1,728
  1,850
  1,977
  2,109
  2,247
  2,389
  2,538
  2,692
  2,854
  3,022
  3,197
  3,380
  3,571
  3,771
  3,979
  4,198
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  867
  978
  1,092
  1,210
  1,331
  1,455
  1,580
  1,710
  1,841
  1,975
  2,084
  2,226
  2,372
  2,522
  2,676
  2,836
  3,002
  3,174
  3,354
  3,539
  3,734
  3,936
  4,148
  4,369
  4,600
  4,841
  5,094
  5,360
  5,637
  5,929
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  467
  510
  553
  596
  637
  678
  717
  756
  794
  832
  840
  877
  914
  952
  990
  1,030
  1,070
  1,112
  1,156
  1,201
  1,249
  1,299
  1,351
  1,406
  1,465
  1,526
  1,591
  1,659
  1,731
  1,807
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -448
  -517
  -590
  -667
  -748
  -833
  -921
  -1,013
  -1,108
  -1,206
  -1,280
  -1,386
  -1,496
  -1,610
  -1,728
  -1,850
  -1,977
  -2,109
  -2,247
  -2,389
  -2,538
  -2,692
  -2,854
  -3,022
  -3,197
  -3,380
  -3,571
  -3,771
  -3,979
  -4,198
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  19
  -6
  -37
  -71
  -111
  -155
  -203
  -256
  -314
  -375
  -440
  -509
  -582
  -658
  -737
  -821
  -907
  -997
  -1,091
  -1,188
  -1,289
  -1,394
  -1,502
  -1,615
  -1,732
  -1,854
  -1,980
  -2,112
  -2,248
  -2,390
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  18
  -6
  -32
  -59
  -86
  -112
  -137
  -160
  -180
  -196
  -209
  -217
  -221
  -221
  -216
  -209
  -197
  -184
  -168
  -151
  -133
  -116
  -98
  -82
  -67
  -54
  -42
  -33
  -25
  -18
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  83.7
  70.3
  59.4
  50.3
  42.8
  36.5
  31.3
  26.9
  23.2
  20.0
  17.4
  15.1
  13.1
  11.5
  10.0
  8.8
  7.7
  6.7
  5.9
  5.2
  4.5
  4.0
  3.5
  3.1
  2.7
  2.4
  2.1
  1.9
  1.6
  1.5

Terex Corporation is a manufacturer of lifting and material processing products and services that deliver lifecycle solutions. The Company has three business segments: Aerial Work Platforms (AWP), Cranes and Materials Processing (MP). It delivers lifecycle solutions to a range of industries, including the construction, infrastructure, manufacturing, shipping, utility, quarrying and mining industries. The AWP segment designs, manufactures, services and markets aerial work platform equipment, telehandlers and light towers. The AWP segment's products are used by its customers to construct and maintain industrial, commercial and residential buildings and facilities, and for other commercial operations, as well as in a range of infrastructure projects. The Cranes segment's products are used by its customers for construction and manufacturing facilities, among others. The MP segment's products are used by its customers in construction, infrastructure and recycling projects.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Terex (TEX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -18.6
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -32.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -29.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 31
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 105.2%
Total Debt to Equity 106.1%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital -5.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity -10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
EBITDA Margin -1.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Operating Margin -3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Net Profit Margin -4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Effective Tax Rate 28.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.6%
Payout Ratio -17%

TEX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TEX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4363.4 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Terex. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Terex. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TEX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TEX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Terex, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Terex.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TEX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 103.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TEX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Terex.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Terex. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TEX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TEX are equal to 10.3%.

Life of production assets of 8.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Terex operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TEX is equal to 16.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1222 million for Terex - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 73.7 million for Terex is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Terex at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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