Intrinsic value of TreeHouse Foods - THS

Previous Close

$51.21

  Intrinsic Value

$4.59

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$51.21

 
Intrinsic value

$4.59

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of THS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  6,433
  6,581
  6,750
  6,940
  7,151
  7,381
  7,633
  7,905
  8,198
  8,513
  8,849
  9,209
  9,591
  9,997
  10,429
  10,886
  11,369
  11,881
  12,422
  12,992
  13,595
  14,230
  14,899
  15,604
  16,347
  17,129
  17,953
  18,819
  19,730
  20,689
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,530
  6,674
  6,838
  7,022
  7,226
  7,449
  7,693
  7,957
  8,241
  8,546
  8,576
  8,924
  9,295
  9,689
  10,107
  10,550
  11,019
  11,514
  12,038
  12,591
  13,175
  13,791
  14,439
  15,123
  15,843
  16,601
  17,399
  18,238
  19,122
  20,051
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,530
  6,674
  6,838
  7,022
  7,226
  7,449
  7,693
  7,957
  8,241
  8,546
  8,576
  8,924
  9,295
  9,689
  10,107
  10,550
  11,019
  11,514
  12,038
  12,591
  13,175
  13,791
  14,439
  15,123
  15,843
  16,601
  17,399
  18,238
  19,122
  20,051
Operating income, $m
  -97
  -92
  -87
  -81
  -75
  -68
  -60
  -52
  -43
  -33
  273
  284
  296
  308
  322
  336
  351
  367
  383
  401
  419
  439
  460
  481
  504
  528
  554
  581
  609
  638
EBITDA, $m
  387
  396
  407
  418
  431
  445
  460
  476
  494
  513
  533
  555
  578
  602
  628
  656
  685
  716
  748
  782
  819
  857
  897
  940
  985
  1,032
  1,081
  1,133
  1,188
  1,246
Interest expense (income), $m
  93
  137
  141
  146
  151
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  194
  204
  214
  225
  236
  248
  261
  275
  290
  305
  321
  339
  357
  376
  396
  417
  440
  463
  488
  514
  541
Earnings before tax, $m
  -234
  -234
  -233
  -232
  -231
  -231
  -230
  -229
  -228
  -227
  69
  70
  71
  72
  73
  74
  76
  77
  78
  79
  81
  82
  84
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  19
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
Net income, $m
  -234
  -234
  -233
  -232
  -231
  -231
  -230
  -229
  -228
  -227
  51
  51
  52
  53
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,897
  6,032
  6,187
  6,361
  6,554
  6,766
  6,996
  7,246
  7,514
  7,803
  8,111
  8,440
  8,791
  9,163
  9,559
  9,978
  10,421
  10,890
  11,385
  11,909
  12,461
  13,043
  13,656
  14,303
  14,984
  15,701
  16,455
  17,249
  18,085
  18,963
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,897
  6,032
  6,187
  6,361
  6,554
  6,766
  6,996
  7,246
  7,514
  7,803
  8,111
  8,440
  8,791
  9,163
  9,559
  9,978
  10,421
  10,890
  11,385
  11,909
  12,461
  13,043
  13,656
  14,303
  14,984
  15,701
  16,455
  17,249
  18,085
  18,963
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
Average production assets, $m
  3,024
  3,093
  3,173
  3,262
  3,361
  3,469
  3,587
  3,715
  3,853
  4,001
  4,159
  4,328
  4,508
  4,699
  4,901
  5,116
  5,344
  5,584
  5,838
  6,106
  6,389
  6,688
  7,003
  7,334
  7,683
  8,051
  8,438
  8,845
  9,273
  9,724
Working capital, $m
  766
  783
  803
  826
  851
  878
  908
  941
  976
  1,013
  1,053
  1,096
  1,141
  1,190
  1,241
  1,295
  1,353
  1,414
  1,478
  1,546
  1,618
  1,693
  1,773
  1,857
  1,945
  2,038
  2,136
  2,239
  2,348
  2,462
Total debt, $m
  2,615
  2,697
  2,792
  2,897
  3,015
  3,143
  3,284
  3,435
  3,599
  3,774
  3,961
  4,162
  4,375
  4,601
  4,842
  5,096
  5,366
  5,651
  5,952
  6,270
  6,606
  6,960
  7,333
  7,726
  8,140
  8,576
  9,035
  9,517
  10,025
  10,560
Total liabilities, $m
  3,585
  3,668
  3,762
  3,868
  3,985
  4,114
  4,254
  4,405
  4,569
  4,744
  4,932
  5,132
  5,345
  5,571
  5,812
  6,066
  6,336
  6,621
  6,922
  7,240
  7,576
  7,930
  8,303
  8,696
  9,110
  9,546
  10,005
  10,488
  10,996
  11,530
Total equity, $m
  2,311
  2,365
  2,425
  2,494
  2,569
  2,652
  2,743
  2,840
  2,946
  3,059
  3,180
  3,309
  3,446
  3,592
  3,747
  3,911
  4,085
  4,269
  4,463
  4,668
  4,885
  5,113
  5,353
  5,607
  5,874
  6,155
  6,450
  6,762
  7,089
  7,434
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,896
  6,033
  6,187
  6,362
  6,554
  6,766
  6,997
  7,245
  7,515
  7,803
  8,112
  8,441
  8,791
  9,163
  9,559
  9,977
  10,421
  10,890
  11,385
  11,908
  12,461
  13,043
  13,656
  14,303
  14,984
  15,701
  16,455
  17,250
  18,085
  18,964
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.330
  1.340
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.410
  1.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -234
  -234
  -233
  -232
  -231
  -231
  -230
  -229
  -228
  -227
  51
  51
  52
  53
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  484
  489
  494
  499
  506
  512
  520
  528
  536
  546
  260
  271
  282
  294
  306
  320
  334
  349
  365
  382
  399
  418
  438
  458
  480
  503
  527
  553
  580
  608
Funds from operations, $m
  250
  255
  261
  267
  274
  282
  290
  299
  308
  318
  310
  322
  334
  346
  360
  374
  389
  405
  422
  440
  458
  478
  499
  521
  544
  568
  594
  621
  649
  679
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
Cash from operations, $m
  235
  238
  241
  245
  249
  254
  260
  266
  273
  281
  270
  279
  288
  298
  309
  320
  332
  344
  358
  372
  387
  402
  419
  437
  455
  475
  496
  517
  540
  564
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -185
  -189
  -193
  -198
  -204
  -210
  -217
  -224
  -232
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -282
  -294
  -306
  -320
  -334
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -399
  -418
  -438
  -458
  -480
  -503
  -527
  -553
  -580
New CAPEX, $m
  -62
  -70
  -79
  -89
  -99
  -109
  -118
  -128
  -138
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -191
  -203
  -215
  -227
  -240
  -254
  -268
  -283
  -298
  -315
  -332
  -349
  -368
  -387
  -407
  -428
  -451
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -287
  -303
  -319
  -335
  -352
  -370
  -389
  -408
  -429
  -451
  -473
  -497
  -521
  -547
  -574
  -603
  -633
  -665
  -697
  -733
  -770
  -807
  -848
  -890
  -934
  -981
  -1,031
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  -21
  -32
  -43
  -54
  -64
  -75
  -86
  -97
  -108
  -138
  -150
  -162
  -175
  -188
  -201
  -216
  -230
  -246
  -261
  -278
  -295
  -313
  -332
  -352
  -373
  -394
  -417
  -441
  -466
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  69
  82
  94
  106
  117
  129
  140
  152
  163
  175
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  255
  270
  285
  301
  318
  336
  354
  373
  393
  414
  436
  459
  483
  508
  534
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  283
  287
  294
  300
  307
  314
  320
  327
  333
  340
  70
  78
  85
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
  191
  203
  216
  230
  244
  258
  274
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  352
  369
  388
  406
  424
  443
  460
  479
  496
  515
  258
  278
  298
  319
  341
  365
  389
  413
  438
  465
  493
  522
  552
  584
  617
  652
  689
  727
  766
  808
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  340
  348
  356
  363
  371
  378
  385
  393
  400
  408
  120
  128
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
  183
  193
  204
  215
  227
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294
  309
  325
  342
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -283
  -287
  -294
  -300
  -307
  -314
  -320
  -327
  -333
  -340
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -241
  -253
  -267
  -281
  -296
  -311
  -327
  -344
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  57
  61
  62
  63
  64
  64
  65
  66
  67
  68
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Discount rate, %
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  53
  53
  49
  45
  41
  37
  33
  29
  26
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  91.1
  83.0
  75.6
  68.9
  62.8
  57.3
  52.4
  47.9
  43.8
  40.2
  39.5
  38.7
  38.0
  37.2
  36.4
  35.5
  34.7
  33.9
  33.0
  32.2
  31.4
  30.6
  29.7
  28.9
  28.1
  27.3
  26.6
  25.8
  25.0
  24.3

TreeHouse Foods, Inc. is a consumer packaged food and beverage manufacturer. The Company's segments include North American Retail Grocery, Food Away From Home, and Industrial and Export. The Company manufactures a range of shelf stable, refrigerated, fresh and frozen products. Its product categories include beverages, salad dressings, snack nuts, beverage enhancers, pickles, sauces, cereals, pasta and dry dinners, cookies and crackers, retail bakery, aseptic products, jams and other products. The North American Retail Grocery segment sells branded and private label products to customers within the United States and Canada. The Food Away From Home segment sells products to foodservice customers, including restaurant chains and food distribution companies within the United States and Canada. The Industrial and Export segment includes the Company's co-pack business and non-dairy powdered creamer sales to industrial customers for use in industrial applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TreeHouse Foods (THS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -12.7
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 10
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 92.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 117.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 108.9%
Total Debt to Equity 111.5%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Total Capital -5.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity -10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.6%
EBITDA Margin 3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Operating Margin -1.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Net Profit Margin -3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Effective Tax Rate -17.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

THS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the THS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6307.1 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TreeHouse Foods. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of TreeHouse Foods. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our THS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for THS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TreeHouse Foods, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TreeHouse Foods.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of THS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for THS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for TreeHouse Foods.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TreeHouse Foods. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the THS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for THS are equal to 47%.

Life of production assets of 16 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TreeHouse Foods operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for THS is equal to 11.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2263.3 million for TreeHouse Foods - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 56.245 million for TreeHouse Foods is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TreeHouse Foods at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Treehouse Foods Stock Has Room to Gain   [Nov-15-18 06:30AM  Barrons.com]
▶ TreeHouse: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Earnings Preview: Treehouse Foods   [Aug-01-18 03:33PM  Benzinga]
▶ How Financially Strong Is TreeHouse Foods Inc (NYSE:THS)?   [Jun-26-18 01:14PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Why TreeHouse Foods Inc. Stock Popped Today   [May-03-18 01:23PM  Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Getting TreeHouse Back on Track   [Mar-24-18 12:01AM  Barrons.com]
▶ XL Group, Treehouse Foods rise; Blue Apron, Dermira fall   [Mar-05-18 04:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- TreeHouse Foods, Inc./   [Feb-22-18 12:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why TreeHouse Foods Inc. Stock Fell Thursday   [Feb-15-18 03:17PM  Motley Fool]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- TreeHouse Foods, Inc./   [Jan-31-18 02:37PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Treehouse Foods Inc (NYSE:THS) Undervalued?   [Dec-25-17 09:55AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ TreeHouse Foods, Inc. to Webcast Investor Day   [Nov-09-17 06:03PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why TreeHouse Foods, Inc. Stock Plummeted Thursday   [Nov-02-17 01:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ TreeHouse misses 3Q profit forecasts   [08:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why TreeHouse Foods, Inc. Stock Lost 21% in August   [Sep-07-17 04:50PM  Motley Fool]

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