Intrinsic value of Titan Machinery - TITN

Previous Close

$14.41

  Intrinsic Value

$3.59

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

Previous close

$14.41

 
Intrinsic value

$3.59

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TITN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,227
  1,255
  1,287
  1,324
  1,364
  1,408
  1,456
  1,508
  1,564
  1,624
  1,688
  1,756
  1,829
  1,907
  1,989
  2,076
  2,168
  2,266
  2,369
  2,478
  2,593
  2,714
  2,842
  2,976
  3,118
  3,267
  3,424
  3,589
  3,763
  3,946
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,229
  1,258
  1,290
  1,326
  1,366
  1,411
  1,459
  1,511
  1,567
  1,627
  1,690
  1,759
  1,832
  1,910
  1,992
  2,079
  2,172
  2,270
  2,373
  2,482
  2,597
  2,718
  2,846
  2,981
  3,123
  3,272
  3,429
  3,595
  3,769
  3,952
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,229
  1,258
  1,290
  1,326
  1,366
  1,411
  1,459
  1,511
  1,567
  1,627
  1,690
  1,759
  1,832
  1,910
  1,992
  2,079
  2,172
  2,270
  2,373
  2,482
  2,597
  2,718
  2,846
  2,981
  3,123
  3,272
  3,429
  3,595
  3,769
  3,952
Operating income, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
EBITDA, $m
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  155
Earnings before tax, $m
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -117
  -125
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -161
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -117
  -125
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -161

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  776
  793
  814
  837
  862
  890
  920
  953
  988
  1,026
  1,067
  1,110
  1,156
  1,205
  1,257
  1,312
  1,371
  1,432
  1,498
  1,566
  1,639
  1,716
  1,796
  1,881
  1,971
  2,065
  2,164
  2,269
  2,379
  2,494
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  776
  793
  814
  837
  862
  890
  920
  953
  988
  1,026
  1,067
  1,110
  1,156
  1,205
  1,257
  1,312
  1,371
  1,432
  1,498
  1,566
  1,639
  1,716
  1,796
  1,881
  1,971
  2,065
  2,164
  2,269
  2,379
  2,494
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.581
  1.583
  1.581
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.583
  1.582
  1.583
  1.583
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.583
  1.582
  1.582
  1.581
  1.582
  1.581
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
Average production assets, $m
  160
  163
  167
  172
  177
  183
  189
  196
  203
  211
  219
  228
  238
  248
  259
  270
  282
  295
  308
  322
  337
  353
  369
  387
  405
  425
  445
  467
  489
  513
Working capital, $m
  223
  228
  234
  241
  248
  256
  265
  274
  285
  295
  307
  320
  333
  347
  362
  378
  395
  412
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  542
  567
  595
  623
  653
  685
  718
Total debt, $m
  108
  118
  130
  143
  158
  174
  191
  210
  231
  253
  276
  301
  328
  356
  386
  418
  451
  487
  525
  564
  606
  650
  697
  746
  798
  852
  909
  970
  1,033
  1,100
Total liabilities, $m
  448
  458
  470
  483
  497
  513
  531
  550
  570
  592
  616
  641
  667
  695
  725
  757
  791
  826
  864
  904
  946
  990
  1,036
  1,085
  1,137
  1,192
  1,249
  1,309
  1,373
  1,439
Total equity, $m
  328
  336
  344
  354
  365
  376
  389
  403
  418
  434
  451
  470
  489
  510
  532
  555
  580
  606
  633
  663
  693
  726
  760
  796
  834
  874
  916
  960
  1,006
  1,055
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  776
  794
  814
  837
  862
  889
  920
  953
  988
  1,026
  1,067
  1,111
  1,156
  1,205
  1,257
  1,312
  1,371
  1,432
  1,497
  1,567
  1,639
  1,716
  1,796
  1,881
  1,971
  2,066
  2,165
  2,269
  2,379
  2,494
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.330
  0.350
  0.380
  0.400
  0.430
  0.460
  0.490
  0.520
  0.550
  0.580
  0.610
  0.640
  0.670
  0.700
  0.730
  0.750
  0.780
  0.800
  0.830
  0.850
  0.870
  0.900
  0.920
  0.940
  0.960
  0.980
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -117
  -125
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -161
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  81
Funds from operations, $m
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  3
  2
  0
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -80
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
Cash from operations, $m
  4
  3
  1
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -113
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
Free cash flow, $m
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -80
  -87
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -168
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -214
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  54
  58
  62
  68
  73
  79
  84
  91
  97
  104
  112
  119
  128
  136
  145
  155
  165
  175
  186
  198
  210
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  33
  36
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  76
  81
  87
  95
  101
  109
  116
  125
  133
  142
  152
  161
  172
  183
  194
  207
  219
  232
  246
  261
  277
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -68
  -73
  -79
  -84
  -91
  -97
  -104
  -112
  -119
  -128
  -136
  -145
  -155
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -210
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -139
  -148
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -16
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  93.1
  86.1
  79.2
  72.5
  65.9
  59.6
  53.6
  47.9
  42.6
  37.7
  33.2
  29.2
  25.5
  22.1
  19.1
  16.5
  14.2
  12.1
  10.3
  8.7
  7.4
  6.2
  5.2
  4.4
  3.7
  3.1
  2.5
  2.1
  1.7
  1.4

Titan Machinery Inc. owns and operates a network of service agricultural and construction equipment stores in the United States and Europe. The Company engages in four principal business activities: new and used equipment sales; parts sales; repair and maintenance services, and equipment rental and other activities. It has three business segments: Agriculture, Construction and International. Its agricultural equipment includes machinery and attachments for large-scale farming, and home and garden purposes. Its construction equipment includes heavy construction and light industrial machinery for commercial and residential construction, road and highway construction, and mining operations. It sells new agricultural and construction equipment. It provides in-store and on-site repair and maintenance services. It also rents equipment and provides ancillary services, such as equipment transportation, global positioning system signal subscriptions, and finance and insurance products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Titan Machinery (TITN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -22.5
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 39.6%
Total Debt to Equity 112.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Return On Total Capital -1.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.6%
Return On Equity -4.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.7%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
EBITDA Margin 2.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Operating Margin -0.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Net Profit Margin -1.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Effective Tax Rate 34.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

TITN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TITN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1202.938 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Titan Machinery. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Titan Machinery. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TITN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TITN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Titan Machinery, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Titan Machinery.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TITN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TITN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 15% for Titan Machinery.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Titan Machinery. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TITN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TITN are equal to 13%.

Life of production assets of 6.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Titan Machinery operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TITN is equal to 18.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $321.855 million for Titan Machinery - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 22.08 million for Titan Machinery is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Titan Machinery at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Titan Machinery Elects a New Board Member   [Sep-17-18 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Titan Machinery: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Buy Titan Machinery Inc (NASDAQ:TITN) Now?   [May-31-18 07:06AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Titan Machinery: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ Titan Machinery Inc. Announces Expansion into Germany   [Apr-30-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Titan Machinery beats Street 4Q forecasts   [07:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Titan Machinery Inc (NASDAQ:TITN): Is Breakeven Near?   [Mar-28-18 09:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Titan Machinery Elects a New Board Member   [Feb-28-18 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Titan Machinery Inc. to Present at the 2018 ICR Conference   [Dec-22-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Titan Machinery beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-30-17 07:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Titan Machinery reports 2Q loss   [Aug-31-17 10:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for July 14th   [Jul-14-17 09:11AM  Zacks]
▶ Titan Machinery reports 1Q loss   [May-25-17 07:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Titan Machinery, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 05:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Titan Machinery's Q4 Loss Was Worse Than Expected   [Apr-03-17 09:38AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Titan Machinery reports 4Q loss   [07:06AM  Associated Press]

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