Intrinsic value of Tandy Leather Factory - TLF

Previous Close

$6.71

  Intrinsic Value

$7.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+18%

Previous close

$6.71

 
Intrinsic value

$7.89

 
Up/down potential

+18%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of TLF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  84
  86
  88
  91
  93
  96
  100
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  177
  186
  194
  204
  213
  224
  234
  246
  258
  270
Variable operating expenses, $m
  74
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  87
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  226
  237
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  74
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  87
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  226
  237
Operating income, $m
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
EBITDA, $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Tax expense, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
Net income, $m
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  143
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  143
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.313
  1.303
  1.294
  1.300
  1.292
  1.297
  1.316
  1.304
  1.305
  1.306
  1.303
  1.304
  1.302
  1.300
  1.308
  1.303
  1.298
  1.303
  1.306
  1.308
  1.301
  1.301
  1.302
  1.308
  1.299
  1.302
  1.300
  1.302
  1.303
  1.304
Average production assets, $m
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
Working capital, $m
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
Total debt, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
Total liabilities, $m
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
Total equity, $m
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  159
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  64
  65
  68
  69
  72
  74
  76
  80
  82
  85
  89
  93
  96
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  131
  136
  142
  149
  157
  163
  171
  180
  188
  197
  208
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765
  0.765

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Free cash flow, $m
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  17
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  16
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. is a retailer and a wholesale distributor of a range of leather and related products. The Company's products include leather, leatherworking tools, buckles and adornments for belts, leather dyes and finishes, saddle and tack hardware, and do-it-yourself kits. The Company also manufactures leather lacing and some of its do-it-yourself kits. The Company operates through three segments: Wholesale Leathercraft, Retail Leathercraft and International Leathercraft. The Wholesale Leathercraft segment consists of a chain of wholesale stores operating under the name, The Leather Factory, located in North America. The Retail Leathercraft segment consists of a chain of retail stores operating under the name, Tandy Leather Company, located in North America. The International Leathercraft segment sells to both wholesale and retail customers. The Company has approximately four stores, two located in the United Kingdom, one located in Australia and one located in Spain.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tandy Leather Factory (TLF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.4
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 17
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 11.1%
Total Debt to Equity 13%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Return On Total Capital 10.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Equity 11.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.4%
EBITDA Margin 14.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Operating Margin 12%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 12%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Net Profit Margin 7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Effective Tax Rate 40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

TLF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TLF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $82.321268 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tandy Leather Factory. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Tandy Leather Factory. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TLF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TLF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tandy Leather Factory, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tandy Leather Factory.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TLF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TLF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Tandy Leather Factory.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tandy Leather Factory. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TLF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TLF are equal to 19.6%.

Life of production assets of 8.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tandy Leather Factory operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TLF is equal to 40.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $59.538981 million for Tandy Leather Factory - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.154 million for Tandy Leather Factory is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tandy Leather Factory at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Tandy: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-07-18 07:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Tandy Leather Factory Announces Leadership Changes   [Oct-02-18 02:20PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-03-18 08:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Tandy: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Tandy Leather Factory Reports 2nd Quarter Financial Results   [Aug-02-18 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Tandy: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 06:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ Brompton Funds Opens the Market   [Apr-06-18 11:07AM  CNW Group]
▶ Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Mar-08-18 08:55AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Tandy posts 4Q profit   [Mar-07-18 05:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ Tandy posts 3Q profit   [Nov-02-17 05:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ Tandy Leather Factory Reports 3rd Quarter Financial Results   [Nov-01-17 06:04PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Tandy posts 2Q profit   [Aug-03-17 11:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Tandy Leather Factory Reports 2nd Quarter Financial Results   [Aug-02-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Tandy posts 1Q profit   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Tandy Leather Factory Reports Soft 1st Quarter Results   [May-03-17 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 7 Stocks With Growing Book Values   [05:19PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ What Makes a Competitive Advantage Durable?   [Mar-27-17 06:16PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Tandy posts 4Q profit   [Mar-09-17 06:04PM  Associated Press]

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