Intrinsic value of Talend S.A. - TLND

Previous Close

$39.66

  Intrinsic Value

$3.83

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$39.66

 
Intrinsic value

$3.83

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TLND stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  37.50
  34.25
  31.33
  28.69
  26.32
  24.19
  22.27
  20.54
  18.99
  17.59
  16.33
  15.20
  14.18
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.88
  9.39
  8.95
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
Revenue, $m
  281
  377
  495
  636
  804
  998
  1,221
  1,472
  1,751
  2,059
  2,395
  2,759
  3,151
  3,569
  4,012
  4,481
  4,975
  5,494
  6,037
  6,603
  7,194
  7,810
  8,450
  9,116
  9,809
  10,528
  11,275
  12,052
  12,860
  13,700
Variable operating expenses, $m
  331
  443
  579
  743
  937
  1,162
  1,420
  1,710
  2,033
  2,390
  2,772
  3,193
  3,646
  4,129
  4,643
  5,186
  5,757
  6,357
  6,985
  7,641
  8,325
  9,038
  9,779
  10,549
  11,350
  12,183
  13,048
  13,946
  14,881
  15,853
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  331
  443
  579
  743
  937
  1,162
  1,420
  1,710
  2,033
  2,390
  2,772
  3,193
  3,646
  4,129
  4,643
  5,186
  5,757
  6,357
  6,985
  7,641
  8,325
  9,038
  9,779
  10,549
  11,350
  12,183
  13,048
  13,946
  14,881
  15,853
Operating income, $m
  -51
  -66
  -85
  -107
  -133
  -164
  -199
  -238
  -282
  -331
  -377
  -434
  -495
  -561
  -631
  -704
  -782
  -864
  -949
  -1,038
  -1,131
  -1,228
  -1,328
  -1,433
  -1,542
  -1,655
  -1,772
  -1,894
  -2,021
  -2,153
EBITDA, $m
  -41
  -55
  -72
  -92
  -116
  -145
  -177
  -213
  -254
  -298
  -347
  -400
  -456
  -517
  -581
  -649
  -721
  -796
  -874
  -956
  -1,042
  -1,131
  -1,224
  -1,320
  -1,421
  -1,525
  -1,633
  -1,745
  -1,862
  -1,984
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  4
  9
  15
  22
  31
  41
  52
  65
  80
  96
  113
  132
  152
  173
  196
  220
  246
  272
  300
  330
  360
  392
  425
  459
  495
  532
  570
  610
  652
Earnings before tax, $m
  -51
  -70
  -94
  -122
  -156
  -195
  -240
  -291
  -347
  -410
  -472
  -547
  -627
  -713
  -804
  -901
  -1,002
  -1,109
  -1,221
  -1,338
  -1,460
  -1,588
  -1,720
  -1,858
  -2,001
  -2,149
  -2,304
  -2,465
  -2,632
  -2,805
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -51
  -70
  -94
  -122
  -156
  -195
  -240
  -291
  -347
  -410
  -472
  -547
  -627
  -713
  -804
  -901
  -1,002
  -1,109
  -1,221
  -1,338
  -1,460
  -1,588
  -1,720
  -1,858
  -2,001
  -2,149
  -2,304
  -2,465
  -2,632
  -2,805

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  301
  404
  531
  684
  864
  1,072
  1,311
  1,581
  1,881
  2,212
  2,573
  2,964
  3,384
  3,833
  4,310
  4,814
  5,344
  5,901
  6,484
  7,093
  7,728
  8,389
  9,077
  9,792
  10,536
  11,308
  12,111
  12,945
  13,813
  14,715
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  301
  404
  531
  684
  864
  1,072
  1,311
  1,581
  1,881
  2,212
  2,573
  2,964
  3,384
  3,833
  4,310
  4,814
  5,344
  5,901
  6,484
  7,093
  7,728
  8,389
  9,077
  9,792
  10,536
  11,308
  12,111
  12,945
  13,813
  14,715
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.934
  0.933
  0.932
  0.930
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
Average production assets, $m
  35
  47
  62
  80
  101
  126
  154
  185
  221
  259
  302
  348
  397
  450
  506
  565
  627
  692
  761
  832
  906
  984
  1,065
  1,149
  1,236
  1,327
  1,421
  1,519
  1,620
  1,726
Working capital, $m
  -110
  -147
  -193
  -249
  -314
  -390
  -477
  -575
  -685
  -805
  -937
  -1,079
  -1,232
  -1,395
  -1,569
  -1,752
  -1,945
  -2,148
  -2,360
  -2,582
  -2,813
  -3,054
  -3,304
  -3,565
  -3,835
  -4,116
  -4,409
  -4,712
  -5,028
  -5,357
Total debt, $m
  74
  165
  278
  413
  573
  759
  971
  1,210
  1,476
  1,770
  2,091
  2,438
  2,811
  3,210
  3,633
  4,081
  4,552
  5,046
  5,564
  6,105
  6,668
  7,255
  7,866
  8,502
  9,162
  9,848
  10,561
  11,302
  12,072
  12,873
Total liabilities, $m
  268
  359
  472
  607
  767
  952
  1,164
  1,404
  1,670
  1,964
  2,285
  2,632
  3,005
  3,404
  3,827
  4,274
  4,746
  5,240
  5,758
  6,298
  6,862
  7,449
  8,060
  8,695
  9,356
  10,042
  10,755
  11,495
  12,266
  13,067
Total equity, $m
  34
  45
  59
  77
  97
  120
  147
  177
  211
  248
  288
  332
  379
  429
  483
  539
  599
  661
  726
  794
  865
  940
  1,017
  1,097
  1,180
  1,267
  1,356
  1,450
  1,547
  1,648
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  302
  404
  531
  684
  864
  1,072
  1,311
  1,581
  1,881
  2,212
  2,573
  2,964
  3,384
  3,833
  4,310
  4,813
  5,345
  5,901
  6,484
  7,092
  7,727
  8,389
  9,077
  9,792
  10,536
  11,309
  12,111
  12,945
  13,813
  14,715
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.190
  3.650
  4.670
  5.400
  5.920
  6.320
  6.610
  6.830
  7.010
  7.150
  7.260
  7.340
  7.420
  7.480
  7.530
  7.570
  7.600
  7.640
  7.660
  7.680
  7.700
  7.720
  7.740
  7.750
  7.760
  7.780
  7.790
  7.790
  7.800
  7.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -51
  -70
  -94
  -122
  -156
  -195
  -240
  -291
  -347
  -410
  -472
  -547
  -627
  -713
  -804
  -901
  -1,002
  -1,109
  -1,221
  -1,338
  -1,460
  -1,588
  -1,720
  -1,858
  -2,001
  -2,149
  -2,304
  -2,465
  -2,632
  -2,805
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  25
  29
  32
  30
  34
  39
  44
  50
  55
  61
  68
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  113
  121
  130
  139
  149
  159
  169
Funds from operations, $m
  -41
  -59
  -81
  -107
  -139
  -176
  -218
  -266
  -319
  -378
  -443
  -513
  -588
  -669
  -754
  -845
  -941
  -1,041
  -1,147
  -1,257
  -1,372
  -1,491
  -1,616
  -1,745
  -1,880
  -2,019
  -2,165
  -2,316
  -2,473
  -2,636
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  -38
  -46
  -55
  -66
  -76
  -87
  -98
  -109
  -120
  -131
  -142
  -153
  -163
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -231
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -281
  -292
  -304
  -316
  -328
Cash from operations, $m
  -11
  -21
  -34
  -52
  -73
  -99
  -131
  -167
  -210
  -257
  -311
  -370
  -435
  -505
  -581
  -662
  -748
  -839
  -935
  -1,035
  -1,140
  -1,250
  -1,365
  -1,485
  -1,609
  -1,738
  -1,872
  -2,012
  -2,157
  -2,308
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -25
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -113
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -149
  -159
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -15
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -40
  -47
  -53
  -61
  -67
  -76
  -83
  -92
  -100
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -136
  -146
  -156
  -167
  -177
  -188
  -200
  -212
  -224
  -237
  -251
  -265
Free cash flow, $m
  -23
  -37
  -54
  -76
  -102
  -134
  -171
  -214
  -263
  -318
  -379
  -446
  -518
  -597
  -681
  -770
  -865
  -966
  -1,071
  -1,181
  -1,297
  -1,417
  -1,542
  -1,673
  -1,809
  -1,950
  -2,097
  -2,249
  -2,408
  -2,572
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  73
  92
  113
  135
  160
  186
  212
  239
  267
  294
  321
  347
  373
  399
  423
  447
  471
  494
  518
  541
  564
  587
  611
  635
  660
  686
  713
  741
  770
  801
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  60
  82
  108
  139
  176
  218
  266
  321
  381
  447
  513
  590
  674
  763
  857
  957
  1,062
  1,172
  1,287
  1,407
  1,532
  1,662
  1,797
  1,938
  2,084
  2,236
  2,394
  2,558
  2,729
  2,906
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  133
  174
  221
  274
  336
  404
  478
  560
  648
  741
  834
  937
  1,047
  1,162
  1,280
  1,404
  1,533
  1,666
  1,805
  1,948
  2,096
  2,249
  2,408
  2,573
  2,744
  2,922
  3,107
  3,299
  3,499
  3,707
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  110
  137
  166
  199
  233
  270
  307
  346
  385
  423
  454
  492
  529
  565
  600
  634
  668
  701
  733
  766
  799
  832
  866
  900
  935
  972
  1,010
  1,050
  1,091
  1,135
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -60
  -82
  -108
  -139
  -176
  -218
  -266
  -321
  -381
  -447
  -513
  -590
  -674
  -763
  -857
  -957
  -1,062
  -1,172
  -1,287
  -1,407
  -1,532
  -1,662
  -1,797
  -1,938
  -2,084
  -2,236
  -2,394
  -2,558
  -2,729
  -2,906
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  50
  55
  59
  60
  58
  52
  41
  25
  4
  -24
  -58
  -98
  -145
  -198
  -258
  -323
  -394
  -471
  -553
  -640
  -733
  -830
  -931
  -1,038
  -1,149
  -1,264
  -1,384
  -1,508
  -1,637
  -1,771
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  48
  50
  51
  49
  45
  37
  28
  16
  2
  -13
  -28
  -42
  -55
  -67
  -76
  -82
  -86
  -87
  -85
  -81
  -76
  -69
  -61
  -53
  -45
  -37
  -30
  -23
  -18
  -13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  80.2
  64.6
  52.2
  42.3
  34.4
  28.1
  23.0
  18.9
  15.5
  12.8
  10.6
  8.8
  7.3
  6.1
  5.1
  4.2
  3.5
  3.0
  2.5
  2.1
  1.7
  1.5
  1.2
  1.0
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4

Talend SA is a provider of open source integration solutions for data-oriented companies and integration platform under Apache Spark. The Company's platform enables users to connect data and applications on-premise or in the cloud, in real time or in batch, Big Data or reference data. Its commercial products are Data Fabric, Big Data Integration, Real-Time Big Data, Data Preparation, Data Integration, Cloud Integration, Data Quality, Application Integration, Master Data Management and metadata Manager. Its free products are Data Preparation and Talend Open Studio, including Open Studio for Big Data, Open Studio for Data Integration, Open Studio for Data Quality, Open Studio for ESB and Open Studio for MDM. Its product, Talend Data Fabric, is a data platform. Talend Data Fabric combines big data, data integration, cloud, reference data management, data preparation and application integration in a single platform with a common development environment and management.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Talend S.A. (TLND)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -47.2
Price to Sales 10.7
Price to Book 62.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 377.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 566.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 39.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage -23
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -23.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -56.9%
Return On Total Capital 200%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 131.1%
Return On Equity 141.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 105%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 75.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.5%
EBITDA Margin -20.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.7%
Operating Margin -24.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -29%
Pre-Tax Margin -22.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.8%
Net Profit Margin -22.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

TLND stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TLND stock intrinsic value calculation we used $204 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Talend S.A.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Talend S.A.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TLND stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 37.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TLND is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Talend S.A., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Talend S.A..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TLND stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 119.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TLND stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Talend S.A..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Talend S.A.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TLND stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TLND are equal to 12.6%.

Life of production assets of 10.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Talend S.A. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TLND is equal to -39.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $24.439 million for Talend S.A. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.260 million for Talend S.A. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Talend S.A. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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