Intrinsic value of Tilly's - TLYS

Previous Close

$16.19

  Intrinsic Value

$34.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+112%

Previous close

$16.19

 
Intrinsic value

$34.29

 
Up/down potential

+112%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of TLYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.20
  2.48
  2.73
  2.96
  3.16
  3.35
  3.51
  3.66
  3.79
  3.92
  4.02
  4.12
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  590
  604
  621
  639
  659
  681
  705
  731
  759
  789
  820
  854
  890
  928
  969
  1,012
  1,057
  1,105
  1,155
  1,209
  1,265
  1,324
  1,387
  1,453
  1,522
  1,595
  1,672
  1,753
  1,838
  1,928
Variable operating expenses, $m
  241
  247
  254
  261
  270
  279
  288
  299
  310
  323
  336
  349
  364
  380
  396
  414
  432
  452
  473
  494
  517
  542
  567
  594
  623
  653
  684
  717
  752
  788
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  331
  338
  346
  353
  361
  369
  377
  386
  394
  403
  412
  421
  430
  439
  449
  459
  469
  479
  490
  501
  512
  523
  534
  546
  558
  571
  583
  596
  609
  622
Total operating expenses, $m
  572
  585
  600
  614
  631
  648
  665
  685
  704
  726
  748
  770
  794
  819
  845
  873
  901
  931
  963
  995
  1,029
  1,065
  1,101
  1,140
  1,181
  1,224
  1,267
  1,313
  1,361
  1,410
Operating income, $m
  17
  19
  21
  24
  28
  33
  40
  46
  54
  63
  73
  84
  96
  109
  123
  139
  156
  174
  193
  214
  236
  260
  285
  312
  341
  372
  405
  440
  477
  517
EBITDA, $m
  35
  37
  40
  43
  48
  54
  61
  68
  77
  87
  98
  110
  123
  137
  152
  169
  187
  207
  228
  250
  274
  300
  327
  356
  387
  420
  455
  493
  533
  575
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
Earnings before tax, $m
  17
  19
  21
  24
  28
  32
  38
  45
  53
  61
  71
  81
  93
  105
  119
  134
  150
  168
  187
  207
  228
  251
  276
  303
  331
  361
  393
  427
  463
  502
Tax expense, $m
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  56
  62
  68
  75
  82
  89
  97
  106
  115
  125
  135
Net income, $m
  13
  14
  15
  17
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  45
  52
  59
  68
  77
  87
  98
  110
  122
  136
  151
  167
  184
  202
  221
  242
  263
  287
  312
  338
  366

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  255
  262
  269
  277
  285
  295
  305
  316
  329
  341
  355
  370
  385
  402
  419
  438
  458
  478
  500
  523
  548
  573
  600
  629
  659
  691
  724
  759
  796
  835
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  255
  262
  269
  277
  285
  295
  305
  316
  329
  341
  355
  370
  385
  402
  419
  438
  458
  478
  500
  523
  548
  573
  600
  629
  659
  691
  724
  759
  796
  835
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.314
  2.305
  2.309
  2.307
  2.312
  2.308
  2.311
  2.313
  2.307
  2.314
  2.310
  2.308
  2.312
  2.308
  2.313
  2.311
  2.308
  2.312
  2.310
  2.312
  2.308
  2.311
  2.312
  2.310
  2.310
  2.308
  2.309
  2.310
  2.309
  2.309
Average production assets, $m
  88
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  289
Working capital, $m
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
Total debt, $m
  3
  6
  10
  14
  18
  23
  29
  35
  41
  47
  55
  62
  70
  79
  88
  98
  108
  119
  130
  142
  155
  168
  182
  197
  212
  229
  246
  264
  283
  303
Total liabilities, $m
  132
  136
  139
  144
  148
  153
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  284
  298
  312
  326
  342
  358
  376
  394
  413
  433
Total equity, $m
  123
  126
  129
  133
  137
  142
  147
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  202
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  263
  276
  289
  303
  317
  332
  348
  365
  383
  401
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  255
  262
  268
  277
  285
  295
  305
  316
  328
  341
  355
  370
  385
  402
  420
  438
  457
  478
  501
  524
  547
  574
  601
  629
  659
  690
  724
  759
  796
  834
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.050
  0.080
  0.100
  0.130
  0.160
  0.200
  0.230
  0.260
  0.290
  0.320
  0.350
  0.380
  0.410
  0.440
  0.460
  0.490
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.590
  0.610
  0.630
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  13
  14
  15
  17
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  45
  52
  59
  68
  77
  87
  98
  110
  122
  136
  151
  167
  184
  202
  221
  242
  263
  287
  312
  338
  366
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
Funds from operations, $m
  30
  32
  34
  36
  40
  44
  49
  55
  61
  68
  76
  85
  94
  105
  116
  128
  141
  156
  171
  187
  205
  223
  243
  265
  287
  311
  337
  364
  393
  424
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  31
  32
  35
  37
  41
  45
  50
  56
  62
  70
  78
  87
  96
  107
  118
  130
  144
  158
  173
  190
  207
  226
  246
  268
  291
  315
  341
  368
  397
  428
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -66
  -68
Free cash flow, $m
  12
  12
  14
  16
  19
  22
  26
  31
  36
  42
  49
  57
  65
  74
  84
  95
  106
  119
  133
  147
  163
  179
  197
  216
  237
  258
  281
  306
  332
  360
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  15
  16
  18
  20
  23
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  56
  64
  73
  83
  93
  104
  117
  130
  144
  159
  175
  193
  211
  231
  252
  275
  299
  324
  351
  380
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  52
  13
  14
  16
  19
  23
  27
  31
  37
  43
  50
  57
  66
  75
  85
  96
  107
  120
  133
  148
  164
  180
  198
  217
  238
  259
  283
  307
  333
  361
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  50
  12
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  25
  24
  23
  22
  21
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Tilly's, Inc. is a destination specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear and accessories for young men, young women, boys and girls. The Company offers an unparalleled selection of relevant brands, styles, colors, sizes and price points. The Company's apparel merchandise includes branded, fashion and styles for tops, outerwear, bottoms and dresses. Its accessories merchandise includes backpacks, hats, sunglasses, headphones, handbags, watches, jewelry and others. The Company offers its products through stores and Website. The Company operates over 220 stores in approximately 30 states. The Company's stores are located in malls, lifestyle centers, power centers, community centers, outlet centers and street-front locations. The Company also operates an e-commerce platform for desktop and mobile. The Company's third-party brands include AYC, Adidas, Billabong, Converse, Hurley, Nixon, JanSport, LRG and Stance, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tilly's (TLYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 42.3
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 15
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -26.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -16.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 134
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Equity 6.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30%
EBITDA Margin 7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Net Profit Margin 1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Effective Tax Rate 45%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

TLYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TLYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $576.899 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tilly's. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Tilly's. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TLYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TLYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tilly's, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tilly's.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TLYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 40.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $324 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TLYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Tilly's.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tilly's. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TLYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TLYS are equal to 15%.

Life of production assets of 3.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tilly's operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TLYS is equal to -4.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $160.425 million for Tilly's - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.393 million for Tilly's is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tilly's at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ How Should Investors React To Tillys Incs (NYSE:TLYS) CEO Pay?   [Nov-01-18 01:41PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ And Canada Makes Three   [Oct-02-18 09:15AM  Zacks]
▶ 5 Top Stocks to Break the 'October Effect' Jinx   [Oct-01-18 09:21AM  Zacks]
▶ 5 Top Stocks to Buy Ahead of the Fourth Quarter   [Sep-28-18 07:37AM  Zacks]
▶ Stocks Slump as Trade Talks Cancelled   [Sep-25-18 09:15AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for September 20th   [Sep-20-18 10:00AM  Zacks]
▶ Why Shares of Tilly's Inc. Surged Today   [Aug-30-18 11:24AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Tilly's: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-29-18 04:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Tillys Inc (NYSE:TLYS)   [Aug-22-18 03:29PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Bull of the Day: Tilly's (TLYS)   [06:55AM  Zacks]
▶ Moving Average Crossover Alert: Tilly's (TLYS)   [Jun-22-18 09:07AM  Zacks]
▶ 5 Stocks With Growth and Momentum to Tap Small-Cap Boom   [Jun-15-18 10:58AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Tilly's shares jump 15% on earnings beat   [04:26PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Tilly's: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Tillys Inc Stock Plunges on Q4 Sales Miss   [Mar-13-18 11:08AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ After-hours buzz: SFIX, X, TLYS & MYGN   [Mar-12-18 05:32PM  CNBC]
▶ Tilly's misses Street 4Q forecasts   [04:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ A Preview Of Tilly's Q4 Earnings   [08:34AM  Benzinga]
▶ Tillys, Inc. Declares Special Dividend of $1.00 per Share   [Jan-25-18 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Tillys, Inc.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [Dec-01-17 10:11AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why L Brands, Enbridge, and Tilly's Jumped Today   [Nov-30-17 04:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Tilly's beats Street 3Q forecasts   [04:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Tillys, Inc. : November 3, 2017   [Nov-03-17 12:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Tillys, Inc. : September 7, 2017   [Sep-07-17 02:01PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Tillys, Inc.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [Aug-24-17 02:35PM  Capital Cube]

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