Intrinsic value of Tandem Diabetes Care - TNDM

Previous Close

$33.12

  Intrinsic Value

$14.69

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-56%

Previous close

$33.12

 
Intrinsic value

$14.69

 
Up/down potential

-56%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TNDM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  172
  266
  398
  577
  814
  1,119
  1,503
  1,973
  2,539
  3,207
  3,982
  4,869
  5,868
  6,982
  8,210
  9,550
  11,001
  12,560
  14,224
  15,993
  17,862
  19,830
  21,895
  24,057
  26,315
  28,670
  31,122
  33,674
  36,327
  39,084
Variable operating expenses, $m
  67
  103
  154
  224
  316
  434
  583
  765
  984
  1,243
  1,544
  1,887
  2,275
  2,707
  3,182
  3,702
  4,264
  4,869
  5,514
  6,199
  6,924
  7,687
  8,488
  9,326
  10,201
  11,114
  12,065
  13,054
  14,082
  15,151
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  136
  139
  142
  145
  148
  152
  155
  158
  162
  165
  169
  173
  176
  180
  184
  188
  193
  197
  201
  206
  210
  215
  219
  224
  229
  234
  239
  245
  250
  255
Total operating expenses, $m
  203
  242
  296
  369
  464
  586
  738
  923
  1,146
  1,408
  1,713
  2,060
  2,451
  2,887
  3,366
  3,890
  4,457
  5,066
  5,715
  6,405
  7,134
  7,902
  8,707
  9,550
  10,430
  11,348
  12,304
  13,299
  14,332
  15,406
Operating income, $m
  -31
  24
  101
  208
  350
  534
  765
  1,050
  1,393
  1,798
  2,270
  2,809
  3,417
  4,095
  4,843
  5,659
  6,544
  7,494
  8,509
  9,588
  10,728
  11,928
  13,188
  14,507
  15,885
  17,322
  18,819
  20,376
  21,995
  23,678
EBITDA, $m
  -24
  34
  116
  230
  380
  575
  821
  1,123
  1,486
  1,916
  2,416
  2,988
  3,633
  4,352
  5,145
  6,011
  6,949
  7,956
  9,033
  10,176
  11,385
  12,658
  13,994
  15,393
  16,854
  18,377
  19,964
  21,615
  23,332
  25,116
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  11
  13
  24
  39
  60
  87
  123
  167
  222
  287
  365
  455
  558
  674
  803
  945
  1,101
  1,269
  1,450
  1,643
  1,848
  2,064
  2,293
  2,532
  2,783
  3,045
  3,318
  3,602
  3,898
  4,206
Earnings before tax, $m
  -42
  11
  78
  169
  290
  446
  642
  883
  1,171
  1,511
  1,905
  2,354
  2,859
  3,422
  4,040
  4,714
  5,443
  6,225
  7,060
  7,945
  8,880
  9,864
  10,895
  11,975
  13,102
  14,277
  15,501
  16,773
  18,097
  19,472
Tax expense, $m
  0
  3
  21
  46
  78
  121
  173
  238
  316
  408
  514
  636
  772
  924
  1,091
  1,273
  1,470
  1,681
  1,906
  2,145
  2,398
  2,663
  2,942
  3,233
  3,538
  3,855
  4,185
  4,529
  4,886
  5,257
Net income, $m
  -42
  8
  57
  123
  212
  326
  469
  644
  855
  1,103
  1,390
  1,718
  2,087
  2,498
  2,949
  3,441
  3,974
  4,545
  5,154
  5,800
  6,482
  7,200
  7,954
  8,742
  9,565
  10,422
  11,315
  12,245
  13,211
  14,215

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  152
  235
  351
  509
  719
  988
  1,326
  1,741
  2,241
  2,830
  3,515
  4,297
  5,179
  6,162
  7,246
  8,429
  9,709
  11,085
  12,555
  14,115
  15,765
  17,502
  19,325
  21,233
  23,226
  25,305
  27,469
  29,721
  32,063
  34,496
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  152
  235
  351
  509
  719
  988
  1,326
  1,741
  2,241
  2,830
  3,515
  4,297
  5,179
  6,162
  7,246
  8,429
  9,709
  11,085
  12,555
  14,115
  15,765
  17,502
  19,325
  21,233
  23,226
  25,305
  27,469
  29,721
  32,063
  34,496
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.132
  1.132
  1.134
  1.134
  1.132
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
Average production assets, $m
  32
  49
  73
  106
  150
  206
  276
  363
  467
  590
  733
  896
  1,080
  1,285
  1,511
  1,757
  2,024
  2,311
  2,617
  2,943
  3,287
  3,649
  4,029
  4,427
  4,842
  5,275
  5,727
  6,196
  6,684
  7,192
Working capital, $m
  22
  34
  51
  74
  105
  144
  194
  255
  328
  414
  514
  628
  757
  901
  1,059
  1,232
  1,419
  1,620
  1,835
  2,063
  2,304
  2,558
  2,824
  3,103
  3,395
  3,698
  4,015
  4,344
  4,686
  5,042
Total debt, $m
  89
  163
  268
  411
  599
  841
  1,146
  1,519
  1,969
  2,499
  3,115
  3,819
  4,614
  5,498
  6,473
  7,538
  8,690
  9,929
  11,251
  12,656
  14,140
  15,704
  17,344
  19,062
  20,856
  22,726
  24,674
  26,701
  28,808
  30,999
Total liabilities, $m
  137
  211
  316
  458
  647
  889
  1,194
  1,567
  2,017
  2,547
  3,163
  3,867
  4,661
  5,546
  6,521
  7,586
  8,738
  9,977
  11,299
  12,704
  14,188
  15,752
  17,392
  19,110
  20,904
  22,774
  24,722
  26,749
  28,856
  31,047
Total equity, $m
  15
  23
  35
  51
  72
  99
  133
  174
  224
  283
  351
  430
  518
  616
  725
  843
  971
  1,109
  1,255
  1,412
  1,576
  1,750
  1,932
  2,123
  2,323
  2,530
  2,747
  2,972
  3,206
  3,450
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  152
  234
  351
  509
  719
  988
  1,327
  1,741
  2,241
  2,830
  3,514
  4,297
  5,179
  6,162
  7,246
  8,429
  9,709
  11,086
  12,554
  14,116
  15,764
  17,502
  19,324
  21,233
  23,227
  25,304
  27,469
  29,721
  32,062
  34,497
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.840
  6.960
  7.630
  8.060
  8.330
  8.510
  8.640
  8.720
  8.790
  8.830
  8.860
  8.890
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.990
  8.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -42
  8
  57
  123
  212
  326
  469
  644
  855
  1,103
  1,390
  1,718
  2,087
  2,498
  2,949
  3,441
  3,974
  4,545
  5,154
  5,800
  6,482
  7,200
  7,954
  8,742
  9,565
  10,422
  11,315
  12,245
  13,211
  14,215
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  10
  15
  21
  30
  41
  55
  73
  94
  118
  147
  179
  216
  257
  302
  351
  405
  462
  523
  589
  657
  730
  806
  885
  968
  1,055
  1,145
  1,239
  1,337
  1,438
Funds from operations, $m
  -35
  18
  71
  145
  242
  367
  524
  717
  948
  1,221
  1,537
  1,897
  2,303
  2,755
  3,251
  3,793
  4,378
  5,007
  5,677
  6,388
  7,140
  7,930
  8,759
  9,627
  10,533
  11,477
  12,461
  13,484
  14,547
  15,653
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  12
  17
  23
  31
  39
  49
  61
  73
  86
  100
  114
  129
  144
  158
  173
  187
  201
  215
  228
  241
  254
  266
  279
  291
  304
  316
  329
  342
  356
Cash from operations, $m
  -44
  6
  54
  122
  211
  328
  475
  656
  875
  1,135
  1,437
  1,783
  2,174
  2,611
  3,093
  3,620
  4,191
  4,806
  5,462
  6,160
  6,898
  7,676
  8,493
  9,348
  10,242
  11,174
  12,144
  13,155
  14,205
  15,297
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -21
  -30
  -41
  -55
  -73
  -93
  -118
  -147
  -179
  -216
  -257
  -302
  -351
  -405
  -462
  -523
  -589
  -657
  -730
  -806
  -885
  -968
  -1,055
  -1,145
  -1,239
  -1,337
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -17
  -24
  -33
  -44
  -56
  -71
  -87
  -104
  -123
  -143
  -163
  -184
  -205
  -226
  -247
  -267
  -287
  -306
  -325
  -344
  -362
  -380
  -398
  -416
  -433
  -451
  -469
  -488
  -507
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -23
  -34
  -48
  -65
  -86
  -112
  -142
  -177
  -216
  -261
  -310
  -363
  -421
  -483
  -549
  -618
  -692
  -768
  -848
  -933
  -1,019
  -1,110
  -1,204
  -1,301
  -1,401
  -1,506
  -1,614
  -1,727
  -1,844
Free cash flow, $m
  -59
  -18
  20
  74
  147
  242
  363
  514
  699
  919
  1,176
  1,473
  1,811
  2,190
  2,610
  3,071
  3,573
  4,114
  4,694
  5,311
  5,966
  6,657
  7,383
  8,145
  8,941
  9,772
  10,638
  11,540
  12,478
  13,453
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  12
  75
  105
  142
  188
  242
  304
  374
  449
  531
  616
  704
  794
  885
  975
  1,065
  1,152
  1,238
  1,322
  1,404
  1,485
  1,563
  1,641
  1,717
  1,794
  1,871
  1,948
  2,027
  2,107
  2,190
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  86
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  98
  75
  105
  142
  188
  242
  304
  374
  449
  531
  616
  704
  794
  885
  975
  1,065
  1,152
  1,238
  1,322
  1,404
  1,485
  1,563
  1,641
  1,717
  1,794
  1,871
  1,948
  2,027
  2,107
  2,190
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  39
  57
  125
  217
  335
  484
  668
  888
  1,148
  1,449
  1,792
  2,178
  2,605
  3,075
  3,585
  4,136
  4,725
  5,352
  6,016
  6,716
  7,451
  8,220
  9,024
  9,862
  10,735
  11,642
  12,586
  13,567
  14,585
  15,643
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -86
  -8
  -12
  -16
  -21
  -27
  -34
  -42
  -50
  -59
  -68
  -78
  -88
  -98
  -108
  -118
  -128
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -243
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -47
  49
  113
  201
  314
  457
  634
  847
  1,098
  1,390
  1,724
  2,099
  2,517
  2,977
  3,477
  4,018
  4,597
  5,215
  5,869
  6,560
  7,286
  8,046
  8,842
  9,671
  10,535
  11,435
  12,370
  13,341
  14,351
  15,400
Discount rate, %
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.02
  39.93
  41.92
  44.02
  46.22
  48.53
  50.96
  53.50
  56.18
  58.99
  61.94
  65.03
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -41
  36
  70
  102
  130
  152
  165
  170
  166
  155
  139
  119
  98
  77
  59
  43
  30
  20
  13
  8
  5
  3
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8
  48.8

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. is a medical device company. The Company is engaged in designing, developing and commercializing products for people with insulin-dependent diabetes. The Company manufactures and sells three insulin pump products, which include t:slim Insulin Delivery System (t:slim), t:flex Insulin Delivery System (t:flex) and t:slim G4 Insulin Delivery System (t:slim G4). Its technology platform features Micro-Delivery Technology, a miniaturized pumping mechanism, which draws insulin from a flexible bag within the pump's cartridge rather than relying on a syringe and plunger mechanism. It also features a software, which is a vivid color touch screen and a micro- universal serial bus (USB) connection that supports both a rechargeable battery and uploads to t:connect Diabetes Management Application (t:connect), its custom cloud-based data management application that provides display therapy management data from the pump and supported blood glucose meters.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.2
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book -17.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -1316.7%
Total Debt to Equity -1316.7%
Interest Coverage -20
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -66.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -61.3%
Return On Total Capital -100.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -84.1%
Return On Equity -291.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -168.9%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.9%
EBITDA Margin -88.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -106.6%
Operating Margin -92.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -112.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -98.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -118.5%
Net Profit Margin -98.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -119.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

TNDM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TNDM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $107.601 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tandem Diabetes Care. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Tandem Diabetes Care. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TNDM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 15.8%, whose default value for TNDM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tandem Diabetes Care, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tandem Diabetes Care.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TNDM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 38.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $133 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TNDM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 14.6% for Tandem Diabetes Care.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tandem Diabetes Care. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TNDM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TNDM are equal to 18.4%.

Life of production assets of 3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tandem Diabetes Care operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TNDM is equal to 12.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-29.148 million for Tandem Diabetes Care - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 57.221 million for Tandem Diabetes Care is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tandem Diabetes Care at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Tandem Diabetes Care Inc (NASDAQ:TNDM): Are Analysts Bullish?   [Apr-10-18 02:47PM  Simply Wall St.]

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