Intrinsic value of Tutor Perini - TPC

Previous Close

$17.60

  Intrinsic Value

$23.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+35%

Previous close

$17.60

 
Intrinsic value

$23.84

 
Up/down potential

+35%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of TPC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,852
  4,964
  5,092
  5,235
  5,393
  5,568
  5,757
  5,962
  6,184
  6,421
  6,675
  6,946
  7,234
  7,541
  7,866
  8,211
  8,576
  8,961
  9,369
  9,800
  10,254
  10,733
  11,238
  11,770
  12,330
  12,920
  13,541
  14,194
  14,882
  15,605
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,342
  4,440
  4,552
  4,678
  4,818
  4,972
  5,139
  5,319
  5,514
  5,723
  5,879
  6,118
  6,372
  6,642
  6,928
  7,232
  7,554
  7,893
  8,253
  8,632
  9,032
  9,454
  9,899
  10,367
  10,861
  11,380
  11,927
  12,503
  13,108
  13,745
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  333
  341
  348
  356
  363
  371
  380
  388
  397
  405
  414
  423
  433
  442
  452
  462
  472
  482
  493
  504
  515
  526
  538
  550
  562
  574
  587
  600
  613
  626
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,675
  4,781
  4,900
  5,034
  5,181
  5,343
  5,519
  5,707
  5,911
  6,128
  6,293
  6,541
  6,805
  7,084
  7,380
  7,694
  8,026
  8,375
  8,746
  9,136
  9,547
  9,980
  10,437
  10,917
  11,423
  11,954
  12,514
  13,103
  13,721
  14,371
Operating income, $m
  178
  184
  191
  201
  212
  225
  239
  255
  273
  293
  381
  404
  430
  457
  486
  517
  550
  586
  624
  664
  707
  753
  802
  853
  908
  966
  1,027
  1,092
  1,161
  1,234
EBITDA, $m
  282
  289
  298
  308
  321
  335
  351
  368
  388
  409
  433
  458
  485
  515
  546
  580
  616
  655
  696
  739
  786
  835
  888
  944
  1,003
  1,065
  1,131
  1,201
  1,275
  1,354
Interest expense (income), $m
  47
  68
  73
  79
  85
  92
  100
  109
  118
  128
  139
  151
  164
  177
  192
  207
  223
  240
  259
  278
  298
  320
  342
  366
  391
  418
  446
  475
  506
  539
  573
Earnings before tax, $m
  109
  111
  113
  116
  120
  125
  130
  137
  145
  153
  230
  241
  252
  265
  279
  294
  310
  327
  346
  366
  388
  411
  435
  462
  490
  520
  552
  586
  622
  661
Tax expense, $m
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  149
  158
  168
  178
Net income, $m
  80
  81
  82
  85
  87
  91
  95
  100
  106
  112
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  267
  283
  300
  318
  337
  358
  380
  403
  428
  454
  482

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,348
  4,448
  4,562
  4,691
  4,833
  4,989
  5,159
  5,343
  5,541
  5,753
  5,981
  6,224
  6,482
  6,757
  7,048
  7,357
  7,684
  8,030
  8,395
  8,781
  9,188
  9,617
  10,070
  10,546
  11,049
  11,577
  12,134
  12,719
  13,335
  13,983
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,348
  4,448
  4,562
  4,691
  4,833
  4,989
  5,159
  5,343
  5,541
  5,753
  5,981
  6,224
  6,482
  6,757
  7,048
  7,357
  7,684
  8,030
  8,395
  8,781
  9,188
  9,617
  10,070
  10,546
  11,049
  11,577
  12,134
  12,719
  13,335
  13,983
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
  1.116
Average production assets, $m
  825
  844
  866
  890
  917
  946
  979
  1,014
  1,051
  1,092
  1,135
  1,181
  1,230
  1,282
  1,337
  1,396
  1,458
  1,523
  1,593
  1,666
  1,743
  1,825
  1,910
  2,001
  2,096
  2,196
  2,302
  2,413
  2,530
  2,653
Working capital, $m
  1,300
  1,330
  1,365
  1,403
  1,445
  1,492
  1,543
  1,598
  1,657
  1,721
  1,789
  1,861
  1,939
  2,021
  2,108
  2,200
  2,298
  2,402
  2,511
  2,626
  2,748
  2,876
  3,012
  3,154
  3,304
  3,463
  3,629
  3,804
  3,988
  4,182
Total debt, $m
  786
  845
  914
  990
  1,075
  1,169
  1,270
  1,380
  1,499
  1,626
  1,762
  1,907
  2,062
  2,226
  2,400
  2,585
  2,781
  2,987
  3,206
  3,436
  3,680
  3,937
  4,207
  4,492
  4,792
  5,109
  5,441
  5,791
  6,160
  6,547
Total liabilities, $m
  2,600
  2,660
  2,728
  2,805
  2,890
  2,983
  3,085
  3,195
  3,313
  3,441
  3,577
  3,722
  3,876
  4,041
  4,215
  4,400
  4,595
  4,802
  5,020
  5,251
  5,494
  5,751
  6,022
  6,307
  6,607
  6,923
  7,256
  7,606
  7,974
  8,362
Total equity, $m
  1,748
  1,788
  1,834
  1,886
  1,943
  2,006
  2,074
  2,148
  2,227
  2,313
  2,404
  2,502
  2,606
  2,716
  2,833
  2,958
  3,089
  3,228
  3,375
  3,530
  3,694
  3,866
  4,048
  4,240
  4,441
  4,654
  4,878
  5,113
  5,361
  5,621
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,348
  4,448
  4,562
  4,691
  4,833
  4,989
  5,159
  5,343
  5,540
  5,754
  5,981
  6,224
  6,482
  6,757
  7,048
  7,358
  7,684
  8,030
  8,395
  8,781
  9,188
  9,617
  10,070
  10,547
  11,048
  11,577
  12,134
  12,719
  13,335
  13,983
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.450
  0.470
  0.500
  0.530
  0.550
  0.580
  0.610
  0.640
  0.670
  0.700
  0.730
  0.760
  0.790
  0.820
  0.850
  0.870
  0.900
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  1.000
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.080
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.150
  1.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402
  0.402

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  80
  81
  82
  85
  87
  91
  95
  100
  106
  112
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  267
  283
  300
  318
  337
  358
  380
  403
  428
  454
  482
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  105
  106
  107
  108
  109
  110
  112
  113
  115
  117
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  86
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
Funds from operations, $m
  184
  186
  189
  192
  196
  201
  207
  213
  221
  229
  219
  229
  240
  251
  264
  277
  292
  308
  325
  343
  362
  382
  404
  428
  453
  479
  507
  537
  569
  602
Change in working capital, $m
  25
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
  128
  135
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  194
Cash from operations, $m
  159
  156
  155
  154
  154
  155
  156
  158
  161
  165
  151
  156
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
  215
  227
  240
  254
  269
  285
  302
  321
  341
  362
  384
  409
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -120
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -176
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
Free cash flow, $m
  108
  100
  95
  90
  87
  83
  81
  79
  78
  77
  59
  59
  60
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  82
  87
  94
  101
  108
  117
  126
  136
  147
  158
  171
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  49
  60
  68
  77
  85
  93
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  145
  155
  164
  174
  185
  196
  207
  218
  231
  243
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  333
  350
  368
  387
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  49
  60
  68
  77
  85
  93
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  145
  155
  164
  174
  185
  196
  207
  218
  231
  243
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  333
  350
  368
  387
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  157
  160
  163
  167
  172
  177
  183
  189
  196
  204
  195
  204
  215
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  295
  313
  331
  350
  371
  393
  417
  442
  469
  497
  527
  559
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -248
  -260
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  123
  120
  117
  116
  114
  114
  114
  115
  117
  119
  103
  107
  111
  115
  121
  126
  133
  140
  149
  158
  167
  178
  189
  202
  215
  229
  245
  261
  279
  298
Discount rate, %
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  117
  108
  100
  93
  86
  79
  73
  68
  62
  57
  44
  41
  37
  33
  30
  27
  24
  21
  18
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Tutor Perini Corporation is a construction company offering general contracting, construction management and design-build services to private customers and public agencies across the world. The Company operates through three segments: Civil, Building and Specialty Contractors. Its Civil segment specializes in public works construction and the repair, replacement and reconstruction of infrastructure across various geographic regions of the United States. Its Building segment provides services to various specialized building markets for private and public works customers, including the hospitality and gaming, transportation, healthcare, corporate and municipal offices, sports and entertainment, education, correctional facilities, biotech, pharmaceutical and industrial markets. Its Specialty Contractors segment specializes in electrical, mechanical, plumbing, heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), fire protection systems, and pneumatically placed concrete.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tutor Perini (TPC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -55.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -17.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 43.4%
Total Debt to Equity 48.9%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Total Capital 4.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Equity 6.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 9.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
EBITDA Margin 5.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Operating Margin 4.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Net Profit Margin 1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Effective Tax Rate 35.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Payout Ratio 0%

TPC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TPC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4757.208 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tutor Perini. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Tutor Perini. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TPC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for TPC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tutor Perini, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tutor Perini.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TPC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $326 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TPC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.3% for Tutor Perini.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tutor Perini. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TPC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TPC are equal to 17%.

Life of production assets of 22.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tutor Perini operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TPC is equal to 26.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1713.275 million for Tutor Perini - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.016 million for Tutor Perini is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tutor Perini at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ City rebidding convention center project again   [12:58PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Tutor Perini: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Financially Strong Is Tutor Perini Corporation (NYSE:TPC)?   [Oct-03-18 01:17PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Tutor Perini: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Low Price-to-Book Stocks Worth Buying in July   [Jul-09-18 02:00PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Tutor Perini: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 07:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Cheap Stocks This Week   [May-01-18 10:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
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▶ Highly Undervalued Stocks To Profit From   [Mar-15-18 10:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Tutor Perini Corp.'s Shares Soared 14% Higher Today   [Feb-28-18 03:43PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Tutor Perini beats 4Q profit forecasts   [05:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ January Undervalued Stock Picks   [Jan-30-18 09:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Roy Anderson Corp. to Build the Mississippi Aquarium   [Dec-21-17 05:34PM  Business Wire]
▶ Best-In-Class Undervalued Stocks   [Dec-15-17 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Tutor Perini misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-09-17 05:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Tutor Perini Reports Third Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]

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