Intrinsic value of TPI Composites - TPIC

Previous Close

$24.57

  Intrinsic Value

$18.19

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-26%

Previous close

$24.57

 
Intrinsic value

$18.19

 
Up/down potential

-26%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TPIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  949
  971
  996
  1,024
  1,055
  1,089
  1,126
  1,166
  1,209
  1,256
  1,305
  1,358
  1,415
  1,475
  1,538
  1,606
  1,677
  1,752
  1,832
  1,916
  2,005
  2,099
  2,198
  2,302
  2,411
  2,527
  2,648
  2,776
  2,910
  3,052
Variable operating expenses, $m
  791
  810
  830
  854
  880
  908
  939
  972
  1,008
  1,047
  1,089
  1,133
  1,180
  1,230
  1,283
  1,339
  1,399
  1,462
  1,528
  1,598
  1,672
  1,750
  1,833
  1,920
  2,011
  2,107
  2,208
  2,315
  2,427
  2,545
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  100
  102
  104
  107
  109
  111
  114
  116
  119
  122
  124
  127
  130
  133
  136
  139
  142
  145
  148
  151
  154
  158
  161
Total operating expenses, $m
  877
  898
  920
  946
  974
  1,004
  1,037
  1,072
  1,110
  1,151
  1,196
  1,242
  1,291
  1,344
  1,399
  1,458
  1,521
  1,586
  1,655
  1,728
  1,805
  1,886
  1,972
  2,062
  2,156
  2,255
  2,359
  2,469
  2,585
  2,706
Operating income, $m
  72
  73
  76
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  256
  271
  288
  306
  325
  345
EBITDA, $m
  93
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  183
  194
  206
  218
  231
  245
  260
  275
  292
  309
  328
  347
  368
  390
  413
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
Earnings before tax, $m
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  173
  183
  195
  207
  219
  233
  247
  263
Tax expense, $m
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
Net income, $m
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  151
  160
  170
  181
  192

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  568
  581
  596
  613
  631
  652
  674
  698
  724
  751
  781
  813
  847
  882
  921
  961
  1,004
  1,049
  1,096
  1,147
  1,200
  1,256
  1,315
  1,377
  1,443
  1,512
  1,585
  1,661
  1,742
  1,826
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  568
  581
  596
  613
  631
  652
  674
  698
  724
  751
  781
  813
  847
  882
  921
  961
  1,004
  1,049
  1,096
  1,147
  1,200
  1,256
  1,315
  1,377
  1,443
  1,512
  1,585
  1,661
  1,742
  1,826
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.671
  1.671
  1.671
  1.670
  1.672
  1.670
  1.671
  1.670
  1.670
  1.672
  1.671
  1.670
  1.671
  1.672
  1.670
  1.671
  1.670
  1.670
  1.672
  1.670
  1.671
  1.671
  1.671
  1.672
  1.671
  1.671
  1.671
  1.671
  1.670
  1.671
Average production assets, $m
  110
  113
  115
  119
  122
  126
  131
  135
  140
  146
  151
  158
  164
  171
  178
  186
  195
  203
  213
  222
  233
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
  354
Working capital, $m
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  69
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
Total debt, $m
  128
  136
  144
  154
  165
  177
  190
  204
  219
  236
  253
  272
  292
  313
  335
  359
  384
  410
  438
  468
  499
  532
  567
  603
  642
  682
  725
  770
  817
  867
Total liabilities, $m
  333
  341
  350
  360
  371
  382
  395
  410
  425
  441
  459
  477
  497
  518
  540
  564
  589
  616
  644
  673
  704
  737
  772
  809
  847
  888
  930
  975
  1,022
  1,072
Total equity, $m
  235
  240
  246
  253
  261
  269
  278
  288
  299
  310
  323
  336
  350
  364
  380
  397
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  543
  569
  596
  624
  654
  686
  719
  754
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  568
  581
  596
  613
  632
  651
  673
  698
  724
  751
  782
  813
  847
  882
  920
  961
  1,003
  1,049
  1,097
  1,147
  1,200
  1,256
  1,315
  1,378
  1,443
  1,512
  1,584
  1,661
  1,741
  1,826
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.610
  0.630
  0.660
  0.680
  0.710
  0.730
  0.760
  0.780
  0.810
  0.830
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
  1.110
  1.120
  1.140
  1.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  151
  160
  170
  181
  192
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
Funds from operations, $m
  65
  66
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  219
  232
  246
  260
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  169
  179
  189
  200
  212
  224
  237
  251
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -81
Free cash flow, $m
  41
  41
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  150
  160
  170
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
  184
  195
  207
  219
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  43
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  145
  154
  163
  174
  184
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  41
  39
  38
  37
  36
  35
  34
  33
  31
  30
  29
  27
  25
  24
  22
  20
  18
  16
  15
  13
  11
  9
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

TPI Composites, Inc. manufactures composite wind blades. The Company operates through four segments. The United States segment includes the manufacturing of wind blades at its Newton, Iowa plant; the manufacturing of precision molding and assembly systems used for the manufacture of wind blades in its Warren, Rhode Island facility, and the manufacturing of composite solutions for the transportation industry, which it also conducts in its Rhode Island and Massachusetts facilities. The Asia segment includes the manufacturing of wind blades in facilities in Taicang Port, China and two in Dafeng, China; the manufacturing of precision molding and assembly systems in its Taicang City, China facility; the manufacturing of components in its second Taicang Port, China facility, and wind blade inspection and repair services. The Mexico segment manufactures wind blades from a facility in Juarez, Mexico. The Middle East and Africa segment manufactures wind blades from a facility in Izmir, Turkey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TPI Composites (TPIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 59.2
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 7.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 36
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 28.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 19.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 34.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 84.1%
Total Debt to Equity 116.8%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 7.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Equity 24.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 217%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
EBITDA Margin 6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Operating Margin 5.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Net Profit Margin 1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

TPIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TPIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $930.281 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TPI Composites. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of TPI Composites. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TPIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TPIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TPI Composites, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TPI Composites.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TPIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $84 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TPIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.1% for TPI Composites.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TPI Composites. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TPIC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TPIC are equal to 11.6%.

Life of production assets of 5.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TPI Composites operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TPIC is equal to 6.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $229.882 million for TPI Composites - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.097 million for TPI Composites is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TPI Composites at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ TPI Composites: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-08-18 05:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ What Does TPI Composites Incs (NASDAQ:TPIC) PE Ratio Tell You?   [Oct-05-18 09:11AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 3 Top Energy Stocks to Buy Right Now   [Sep-24-18 08:46PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 7 Tech Stocks Sporting Amazon-Like Growth   [Sep-13-18 01:35PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ 3 Top Growth Stocks to Buy Right Now   [Aug-15-18 06:04AM  Motley Fool]
▶ TPI Composites Has the Wind at Its Back   [Aug-13-18 04:57PM  Motley Fool]
▶ TPI Composites: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-07-18 05:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ TPI and Vestas Expand Relationship in Mexico   [Jul-09-18 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why TPI Composites Stock Just Popped 13%   [Jun-20-18 04:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ TPI and Vestas Expand Relationship in Mexico   [May-09-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ TPI Composites: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-04-18 05:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Edited Transcript of TPIC presentation 10-Apr-18 5:45pm GMT   [Apr-10-18 07:21PM  Thomson Reuters StreetEvents]
▶ TPI Composites misses 4Q profit forecasts   [Mar-08-18 05:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Forget Shopify, Here are 3 Better Growth Stocks   [Dec-22-17 04:10PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Roundtable: 1 Stock I Refuse to Sell   [Nov-14-17 03:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ TPI Composites tops 3Q profit forecasts   [05:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Stocks With Priceline-Like Return Potential   [Nov-02-17 02:28PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Jayshree Desai Joins TPI Composites Board of Directors   [Oct-02-17 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ TPI Composites beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-09-17 03:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TPI Composites, Inc. : June 9, 2017   [Jun-09-17 02:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ TPI Composites, Inc. Announces Pricing of Public Offering   [May-11-17 05:56PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ TPI Composites, Inc. Announces Launch of Public Offering   [May-09-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ TPI Composites beats 1Q profit forecasts   [04:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ TPI Composites Gears Up for Secondary Offering   [May-01-17 12:30PM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ 3 Stocks That Could Make You Rich Over the Long Term   [Apr-09-17 11:32AM  Motley Fool]

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