Intrinsic value of Tootsie Roll Industries - TR

Previous Close

$28.85

  Intrinsic Value

$23.61

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-18%

Previous close

$28.85

 
Intrinsic value

$23.61

 
Up/down potential

-18%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of TR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  530
  542
  556
  571
  589
  608
  628
  651
  675
  701
  729
  758
  790
  823
  859
  896
  936
  978
  1,023
  1,070
  1,119
  1,172
  1,227
  1,285
  1,346
  1,410
  1,478
  1,549
  1,624
  1,703
Variable operating expenses, $m
  435
  445
  456
  468
  481
  496
  512
  529
  548
  568
  565
  588
  612
  638
  666
  695
  726
  758
  793
  829
  868
  908
  951
  996
  1,043
  1,093
  1,146
  1,201
  1,259
  1,320
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  435
  445
  456
  468
  481
  496
  512
  529
  548
  568
  565
  588
  612
  638
  666
  695
  726
  758
  793
  829
  868
  908
  951
  996
  1,043
  1,093
  1,146
  1,201
  1,259
  1,320
Operating income, $m
  94
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  127
  133
  164
  170
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  220
  230
  240
  252
  263
  276
  289
  303
  317
  332
  348
  365
  383
EBITDA, $m
  133
  136
  139
  143
  148
  152
  158
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  225
  235
  245
  257
  268
  281
  294
  308
  322
  338
  354
  371
  389
  408
  427
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
Earnings before tax, $m
  94
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  160
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  286
  300
  314
  328
  344
  360
Tax expense, $m
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
Net income, $m
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  874
  894
  917
  943
  972
  1,003
  1,037
  1,074
  1,114
  1,157
  1,202
  1,251
  1,303
  1,358
  1,417
  1,479
  1,545
  1,614
  1,688
  1,765
  1,847
  1,933
  2,024
  2,120
  2,221
  2,327
  2,439
  2,557
  2,681
  2,811
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  874
  894
  917
  943
  972
  1,003
  1,037
  1,074
  1,114
  1,157
  1,202
  1,251
  1,303
  1,358
  1,417
  1,479
  1,545
  1,614
  1,688
  1,765
  1,847
  1,933
  2,024
  2,120
  2,221
  2,327
  2,439
  2,557
  2,681
  2,811
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
  0.606
Average production assets, $m
  310
  318
  326
  335
  345
  356
  368
  381
  396
  411
  427
  444
  463
  482
  503
  525
  549
  573
  599
  627
  656
  687
  719
  753
  789
  826
  866
  908
  952
  998
Working capital, $m
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
Total debt, $m
  12
  17
  22
  28
  35
  42
  50
  58
  67
  77
  88
  99
  111
  124
  137
  151
  167
  183
  199
  217
  236
  256
  277
  299
  322
  347
  372
  399
  428
  458
Total liabilities, $m
  201
  206
  211
  217
  223
  231
  239
  247
  256
  266
  277
  288
  300
  312
  326
  340
  355
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  511
  535
  561
  588
  617
  647
Total equity, $m
  673
  688
  706
  726
  748
  772
  799
  827
  858
  891
  926
  963
  1,003
  1,046
  1,091
  1,139
  1,189
  1,243
  1,299
  1,359
  1,422
  1,489
  1,559
  1,632
  1,710
  1,792
  1,878
  1,969
  2,064
  2,164
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  874
  894
  917
  943
  971
  1,003
  1,038
  1,074
  1,114
  1,157
  1,203
  1,251
  1,303
  1,358
  1,417
  1,479
  1,544
  1,614
  1,687
  1,765
  1,847
  1,934
  2,025
  2,120
  2,221
  2,327
  2,439
  2,557
  2,681
  2,811
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  39
  39
  40
  40
  41
  41
  42
  42
  43
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
Funds from operations, $m
  107
  109
  112
  114
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  137
  136
  141
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  196
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  106
  108
  110
  112
  115
  118
  122
  126
  130
  134
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  297
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
Free cash flow, $m
  86
  87
  88
  89
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  101
  97
  100
  104
  108
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  90
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  111
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  75
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  151
  76
  75
  75
  75
  75
  75
  76
  77
  78
  73
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  145
  69
  65
  62
  58
  54
  51
  48
  44
  41
  34
  32
  29
  26
  23
  21
  18
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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  100.0

Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. and its subsidiaries are engaged in the manufacture and sale of confectionery products. The Company offers a range of candy, chocolate and bubble gum brands. Its products are marketed in a range of packages designed to be suitable for display and sale in different types of retail outlets. The Company sells its products under the brand names TOOTSIE ROLL, TOOTSIE POPS, CHILD'S PLAY, CARAMEL APPLE POPS, CHARMS, BLOW-POP, CHARMS MINI POPS, CELLA'S, DOTS, JUNIOR MINTS, CHARLESTON CHEW, SUGAR DADDY, SUGAR BABIES, ANDES, FLUFFY STUFF, DUBBLE BUBBLE, RAZZLES, CRY BABY, NIK-L-NIP and TUTSI POP (Mexico). As of December 31, 2016, its products were sold through approximately 30 candy and grocery brokers and by the Company itself to customers throughout the United States. Its customers include wholesale distributors of candy and groceries, supermarkets, variety stores, dollar stores, chain grocers, drug chains, discount chains and cooperative grocery associations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tootsie Roll Industries (TR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 1.1%
Total Debt to Equity 1.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 9.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Equity 9.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.5%
EBITDA Margin 22.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Operating Margin 17.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.6%
Net Profit Margin 13.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Effective Tax Rate 31.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Payout Ratio 32.4%

TR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $519.289 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tootsie Roll Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Tootsie Roll Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tootsie Roll Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tootsie Roll Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Tootsie Roll Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tootsie Roll Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TR are equal to 58.6%.

Life of production assets of 22.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tootsie Roll Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TR is equal to 13.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $733.84 million for Tootsie Roll Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.557 million for Tootsie Roll Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tootsie Roll Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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