Intrinsic value of Tribune Media Cl A - TRCO

Previous Close

$39.07

  Intrinsic Value

$68.40

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+75%

Previous close

$39.07

 
Intrinsic value

$68.40

 
Up/down potential

+75%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of TRCO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
Revenue, $m
  1,927
  2,009
  2,097
  2,189
  2,287
  2,391
  2,500
  2,615
  2,737
  2,866
  3,001
  3,143
  3,293
  3,451
  3,618
  3,793
  3,977
  4,170
  4,374
  4,588
  4,812
  5,049
  5,297
  5,558
  5,833
  6,121
  6,424
  6,742
  7,077
  7,428
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,477
  1,519
  1,563
  1,609
  1,658
  1,710
  1,765
  1,823
  1,884
  1,949
  1,506
  1,578
  1,653
  1,732
  1,816
  1,903
  1,996
  2,093
  2,195
  2,302
  2,415
  2,534
  2,659
  2,790
  2,927
  3,072
  3,224
  3,384
  3,552
  3,728
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,477
  1,519
  1,563
  1,609
  1,658
  1,710
  1,765
  1,823
  1,884
  1,949
  1,506
  1,578
  1,653
  1,732
  1,816
  1,903
  1,996
  2,093
  2,195
  2,302
  2,415
  2,534
  2,659
  2,790
  2,927
  3,072
  3,224
  3,384
  3,552
  3,728
Operating income, $m
  449
  490
  534
  580
  629
  680
  735
  792
  853
  917
  1,495
  1,566
  1,641
  1,719
  1,802
  1,889
  1,981
  2,077
  2,179
  2,285
  2,397
  2,515
  2,639
  2,769
  2,906
  3,049
  3,200
  3,359
  3,525
  3,700
EBITDA, $m
  1,067
  1,113
  1,161
  1,213
  1,267
  1,324
  1,385
  1,449
  1,516
  1,588
  1,662
  1,741
  1,825
  1,912
  2,004
  2,101
  2,203
  2,310
  2,423
  2,541
  2,666
  2,797
  2,935
  3,079
  3,231
  3,391
  3,559
  3,735
  3,920
  4,115
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  158
  169
  181
  194
  207
  222
  237
  252
  269
  287
  305
  325
  346
  367
  390
  414
  440
  466
  494
  524
  555
  587
  622
  658
  695
  735
  777
  821
  867
  915
Earnings before tax, $m
  292
  321
  353
  386
  421
  459
  498
  540
  584
  630
  1,189
  1,241
  1,295
  1,352
  1,412
  1,475
  1,541
  1,611
  1,684
  1,761
  1,842
  1,928
  2,017
  2,111
  2,210
  2,314
  2,423
  2,538
  2,658
  2,785
Tax expense, $m
  79
  87
  95
  104
  114
  124
  135
  146
  158
  170
  321
  335
  350
  365
  381
  398
  416
  435
  455
  476
  497
  520
  545
  570
  597
  625
  654
  685
  718
  752
Net income, $m
  213
  234
  257
  282
  308
  335
  364
  394
  426
  460
  868
  906
  945
  987
  1,031
  1,077
  1,125
  1,176
  1,230
  1,286
  1,345
  1,407
  1,472
  1,541
  1,613
  1,689
  1,769
  1,852
  1,940
  2,033

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,487
  8,851
  9,236
  9,644
  10,075
  10,531
  11,013
  11,522
  12,058
  12,624
  13,220
  13,847
  14,508
  15,204
  15,937
  16,707
  17,518
  18,371
  19,267
  20,209
  21,200
  22,242
  23,336
  24,487
  25,695
  26,965
  28,300
  29,701
  31,174
  32,721
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,487
  8,851
  9,236
  9,644
  10,075
  10,531
  11,013
  11,522
  12,058
  12,624
  13,220
  13,847
  14,508
  15,204
  15,937
  16,707
  17,518
  18,371
  19,267
  20,209
  21,200
  22,242
  23,336
  24,487
  25,695
  26,965
  28,300
  29,701
  31,174
  32,721
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
Average production assets, $m
  3,229
  3,367
  3,514
  3,669
  3,833
  4,007
  4,190
  4,383
  4,588
  4,803
  5,029
  5,268
  5,520
  5,785
  6,063
  6,356
  6,665
  6,989
  7,330
  7,689
  8,066
  8,462
  8,878
  9,316
  9,776
  10,259
  10,767
  11,300
  11,860
  12,449
Working capital, $m
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
Total debt, $m
  3,136
  3,357
  3,592
  3,840
  4,103
  4,381
  4,674
  4,984
  5,310
  5,655
  6,018
  6,400
  6,803
  7,226
  7,672
  8,142
  8,635
  9,155
  9,701
  10,275
  10,878
  11,512
  12,179
  12,879
  13,615
  14,389
  15,201
  16,055
  16,952
  17,894
Total liabilities, $m
  5,169
  5,390
  5,625
  5,873
  6,136
  6,414
  6,707
  7,017
  7,343
  7,688
  8,051
  8,433
  8,836
  9,259
  9,706
  10,175
  10,668
  11,188
  11,734
  12,308
  12,911
  13,545
  14,212
  14,912
  15,648
  16,422
  17,234
  18,088
  18,985
  19,927
Total equity, $m
  3,319
  3,461
  3,611
  3,771
  3,939
  4,118
  4,306
  4,505
  4,715
  4,936
  5,169
  5,414
  5,673
  5,945
  6,231
  6,533
  6,850
  7,183
  7,533
  7,902
  8,289
  8,697
  9,125
  9,574
  10,047
  10,543
  11,065
  11,613
  12,189
  12,794
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,488
  8,851
  9,236
  9,644
  10,075
  10,532
  11,013
  11,522
  12,058
  12,624
  13,220
  13,847
  14,509
  15,204
  15,937
  16,708
  17,518
  18,371
  19,267
  20,210
  21,200
  22,242
  23,337
  24,486
  25,695
  26,965
  28,299
  29,701
  31,174
  32,721
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.940
  0.970
  0.990
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391
  0.391

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  213
  234
  257
  282
  308
  335
  364
  394
  426
  460
  868
  906
  945
  987
  1,031
  1,077
  1,125
  1,176
  1,230
  1,286
  1,345
  1,407
  1,472
  1,541
  1,613
  1,689
  1,769
  1,852
  1,940
  2,033
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  618
  623
  628
  633
  638
  644
  650
  657
  663
  671
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
  311
  326
  342
  359
  377
  395
  415
Funds from operations, $m
  831
  857
  885
  915
  946
  979
  1,014
  1,051
  1,090
  1,131
  1,036
  1,081
  1,129
  1,180
  1,233
  1,289
  1,347
  1,409
  1,474
  1,542
  1,614
  1,689
  1,768
  1,852
  1,939
  2,031
  2,128
  2,229
  2,336
  2,448
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  833
  859
  887
  917
  949
  982
  1,017
  1,054
  1,093
  1,134
  1,040
  1,085
  1,134
  1,184
  1,237
  1,293
  1,352
  1,414
  1,480
  1,548
  1,620
  1,696
  1,775
  1,859
  1,947
  2,039
  2,136
  2,238
  2,345
  2,458
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -311
  -326
  -342
  -359
  -377
  -395
New CAPEX, $m
  -131
  -138
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -204
  -215
  -227
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -324
  -341
  -359
  -377
  -396
  -416
  -438
  -460
  -483
  -508
  -533
  -560
  -589
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -234
  -246
  -259
  -272
  -286
  -302
  -317
  -333
  -350
  -368
  -387
  -407
  -428
  -449
  -472
  -495
  -520
  -546
  -574
  -603
  -633
  -665
  -698
  -734
  -771
  -809
  -850
  -892
  -937
  -984
Free cash flow, $m
  599
  614
  629
  645
  662
  681
  700
  721
  743
  766
  653
  679
  706
  735
  766
  798
  832
  868
  906
  945
  987
  1,031
  1,077
  1,125
  1,176
  1,230
  1,287
  1,346
  1,408
  1,474
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  217
  221
  235
  248
  263
  278
  293
  310
  327
  344
  363
  382
  403
  424
  446
  469
  494
  519
  546
  574
  603
  634
  667
  701
  736
  773
  813
  854
  897
  942
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  217
  221
  235
  248
  263
  278
  293
  310
  327
  344
  363
  382
  403
  424
  446
  469
  494
  519
  546
  574
  603
  634
  667
  701
  736
  773
  813
  854
  897
  942
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  816
  835
  863
  893
  925
  958
  994
  1,031
  1,070
  1,111
  1,016
  1,061
  1,109
  1,159
  1,212
  1,267
  1,326
  1,387
  1,451
  1,519
  1,590
  1,665
  1,743
  1,826
  1,913
  2,004
  2,099
  2,200
  2,305
  2,416
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -138
  -142
  -151
  -159
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -258
  -272
  -286
  -301
  -317
  -333
  -351
  -369
  -387
  -407
  -428
  -450
  -473
  -497
  -522
  -548
  -576
  -605
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  37
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  714
  693
  713
  734
  756
  780
  805
  832
  860
  889
  783
  816
  851
  887
  926
  966
  1,009
  1,054
  1,101
  1,151
  1,203
  1,258
  1,316
  1,376
  1,440
  1,507
  1,577
  1,651
  1,729
  1,811
Discount rate, %
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  665
  596
  563
  528
  492
  454
  415
  377
  338
  300
  224
  195
  168
  142
  119
  98
  79
  63
  49
  37
  28
  20
  15
  10
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Tribune Media Company is a diversified media and entertainment business. As of December 31, 2016, the Company consisted of 42 local television stations that were either owned by the Company or owned by others but to which it provides certain services, along with a national general entertainment cable network, a radio station, a production studio, a portfolio of real estate assets and investments in a range of media, Websites and other related assets. Its business consists of its Television and Entertainment operations and the management of certain of its real estate assets. The Television and Entertainment segment provides audiences across the country with news, entertainment and sports programming on Tribune Broadcasting local television stations and television series and movies on WGN America, including through content produced by Tribune Studios and its production partners, as well as news, entertainment and sports information via its Websites and other digital assets. _tck('aft');

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tribune Media Cl A (TRCO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 24.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 761
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity -0%
Total Debt to Equity -0.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Total Capital -5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.7%
Return On Equity -5.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.3%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48%
EBITDA Margin 18.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Operating Margin 12.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 13%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Net Profit Margin 13.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Effective Tax Rate -2.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

TRCO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TRCO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1848.959 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tribune Media Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Tribune Media Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TRCO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for TRCO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tribune Media Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tribune Media Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TRCO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TRCO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Tribune Media Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tribune Media Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TRCO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TRCO are equal to 167.6%.

Life of production assets of 101.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tribune Media Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TRCO is equal to -2.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3217.136 million for Tribune Media Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 87.626 million for Tribune Media Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tribune Media Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Tribune Media, Sinclair, Meredith, other media firms settle with DOJ   [Nov-14-18 01:22PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Six TV Station Owners Settle Justice Department Antitrust Allegations   [Nov-13-18 08:15PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Tribune Media: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:40AM  Associated Press]
▶ Channel 7's late news scores ratings victory as numbers grow   [02:13PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Bon-Ton Seeks to Join TV Ad Price-Fixing Suit   [Oct-09-18 07:49PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Bon-Ton Seeks to Join TV Ad Lawsuit   [07:08PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Sinclair Broadcast CEO eyes deal for Fox's regional sports networks   [01:14PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Sinclair Broadcast Group's sports platform to air Cayman Islands Classic   [Oct-01-18 03:38PM  American City Business Journals]

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