Intrinsic value of TripAdvisor - TRIP

Previous Close

$59.85

  Intrinsic Value

$18.16

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-70%

Previous close

$59.85

 
Intrinsic value

$18.16

 
Up/down potential

-70%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TRIP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  1,635
  1,719
  1,806
  1,898
  1,994
  2,095
  2,200
  2,311
  2,428
  2,550
  2,679
  2,814
  2,955
  3,103
  3,259
  3,423
  3,595
  3,775
  3,964
  4,163
  4,372
  4,591
  4,821
  5,062
  5,316
  5,582
  5,862
  6,155
  6,463
  6,787
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,448
  1,517
  1,589
  1,665
  1,745
  1,829
  1,917
  2,009
  2,106
  2,207
  2,224
  2,336
  2,453
  2,576
  2,706
  2,842
  2,984
  3,134
  3,291
  3,456
  3,629
  3,811
  4,002
  4,203
  4,413
  4,634
  4,866
  5,110
  5,365
  5,634
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,448
  1,517
  1,589
  1,665
  1,745
  1,829
  1,917
  2,009
  2,106
  2,207
  2,224
  2,336
  2,453
  2,576
  2,706
  2,842
  2,984
  3,134
  3,291
  3,456
  3,629
  3,811
  4,002
  4,203
  4,413
  4,634
  4,866
  5,110
  5,365
  5,634
Operating income, $m
  188
  202
  217
  232
  249
  266
  284
  303
  322
  343
  455
  478
  502
  527
  554
  581
  611
  641
  673
  707
  743
  780
  819
  860
  903
  948
  996
  1,045
  1,098
  1,153
EBITDA, $m
  400
  420
  442
  464
  488
  512
  538
  565
  594
  624
  655
  688
  723
  759
  797
  837
  879
  923
  969
  1,018
  1,069
  1,123
  1,179
  1,238
  1,300
  1,365
  1,433
  1,505
  1,580
  1,660
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  90
  97
  104
  112
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  178
  190
  202
  214
  227
Earnings before tax, $m
  171
  181
  193
  205
  217
  230
  244
  258
  273
  289
  395
  413
  431
  450
  470
  491
  513
  537
  561
  587
  614
  642
  672
  703
  735
  770
  806
  844
  883
  925
Tax expense, $m
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  107
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  158
  166
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  250
Net income, $m
  125
  132
  141
  149
  158
  168
  178
  188
  199
  211
  289
  301
  315
  329
  343
  359
  375
  392
  410
  428
  448
  469
  490
  513
  537
  562
  588
  616
  645
  675

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,034
  2,138
  2,246
  2,360
  2,480
  2,605
  2,737
  2,875
  3,020
  3,172
  3,332
  3,499
  3,675
  3,860
  4,054
  4,257
  4,471
  4,695
  4,931
  5,178
  5,438
  5,710
  5,996
  6,297
  6,612
  6,943
  7,291
  7,655
  8,039
  8,441
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,034
  2,138
  2,246
  2,360
  2,480
  2,605
  2,737
  2,875
  3,020
  3,172
  3,332
  3,499
  3,675
  3,860
  4,054
  4,257
  4,471
  4,695
  4,931
  5,178
  5,438
  5,710
  5,996
  6,297
  6,612
  6,943
  7,291
  7,655
  8,039
  8,441
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
  0.804
Average production assets, $m
  1,222
  1,284
  1,349
  1,417
  1,489
  1,565
  1,644
  1,727
  1,814
  1,905
  2,001
  2,102
  2,207
  2,318
  2,435
  2,557
  2,685
  2,820
  2,961
  3,110
  3,266
  3,429
  3,601
  3,782
  3,971
  4,170
  4,379
  4,598
  4,828
  5,070
Working capital, $m
  -172
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -255
  -268
  -281
  -295
  -310
  -326
  -342
  -359
  -377
  -396
  -416
  -437
  -459
  -482
  -506
  -532
  -558
  -586
  -615
  -646
  -679
  -713
Total debt, $m
  276
  324
  375
  428
  484
  542
  603
  668
  735
  806
  881
  959
  1,041
  1,127
  1,217
  1,312
  1,412
  1,516
  1,626
  1,741
  1,862
  1,989
  2,122
  2,262
  2,409
  2,563
  2,725
  2,895
  3,074
  3,261
Total liabilities, $m
  948
  996
  1,047
  1,100
  1,156
  1,214
  1,275
  1,340
  1,407
  1,478
  1,553
  1,631
  1,713
  1,799
  1,889
  1,984
  2,084
  2,188
  2,298
  2,413
  2,534
  2,661
  2,794
  2,934
  3,081
  3,235
  3,397
  3,567
  3,746
  3,933
Total equity, $m
  1,086
  1,141
  1,199
  1,260
  1,324
  1,391
  1,461
  1,535
  1,613
  1,694
  1,779
  1,869
  1,963
  2,061
  2,165
  2,273
  2,388
  2,507
  2,633
  2,765
  2,904
  3,049
  3,202
  3,362
  3,531
  3,708
  3,893
  4,088
  4,293
  4,507
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,034
  2,137
  2,246
  2,360
  2,480
  2,605
  2,736
  2,875
  3,020
  3,172
  3,332
  3,500
  3,676
  3,860
  4,054
  4,257
  4,472
  4,695
  4,931
  5,178
  5,438
  5,710
  5,996
  6,296
  6,612
  6,943
  7,290
  7,655
  8,039
  8,440
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.250
  0.280
  0.310
  0.340
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  125
  132
  141
  149
  158
  168
  178
  188
  199
  211
  289
  301
  315
  329
  343
  359
  375
  392
  410
  428
  448
  469
  490
  513
  537
  562
  588
  616
  645
  675
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  212
  218
  225
  232
  239
  246
  254
  263
  271
  281
  200
  210
  221
  232
  243
  256
  269
  282
  296
  311
  327
  343
  360
  378
  397
  417
  438
  460
  483
  507
Funds from operations, $m
  337
  351
  366
  381
  397
  414
  432
  451
  471
  491
  489
  511
  535
  560
  587
  614
  643
  674
  706
  739
  775
  812
  850
  891
  934
  979
  1,026
  1,076
  1,128
  1,182
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
Cash from operations, $m
  345
  360
  375
  391
  407
  425
  443
  463
  483
  504
  502
  526
  550
  576
  603
  632
  661
  693
  726
  760
  796
  835
  875
  917
  961
  1,007
  1,055
  1,106
  1,160
  1,216
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -181
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -311
  -327
  -343
  -360
  -378
  -397
  -417
  -438
  -460
  -483
New CAPEX, $m
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -242
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -260
  -272
  -287
  -301
  -316
  -332
  -348
  -365
  -384
  -404
  -423
  -444
  -467
  -491
  -515
  -540
  -567
  -596
  -626
  -657
  -690
  -725
Free cash flow, $m
  170
  175
  181
  187
  194
  201
  208
  215
  223
  231
  216
  225
  234
  244
  255
  266
  277
  289
  302
  316
  330
  344
  360
  376
  393
  411
  430
  449
  470
  492
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
  179
  187
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
  179
  187
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  216
  224
  232
  240
  250
  259
  269
  280
  291
  302
  290
  303
  316
  330
  345
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
  451
  471
  493
  516
  540
  565
  592
  620
  649
  679
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  329
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  151
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  285
  299
  314
  330
  346
  363
  382
  401
Cash available for distribution, $m
  493
  168
  174
  180
  186
  192
  199
  206
  213
  221
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  326
  340
  356
  372
  388
  406
  425
  444
  465
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  473
  154
  151
  148
  144
  139
  134
  129
  123
  116
  97
  91
  85
  78
  71
  64
  57
  51
  44
  38
  32
  27
  22
  18
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

TripAdvisor, Inc. owns and operates a portfolio of online travel brands. TripAdvisor, the Company's brand, is a travel site. The Company operates through two segments: Hotel and Non-Hotel. The Company's Hotel segment includes click-based advertising and transaction; display-based and subscription-based advertising, and other hotel operations. The Non-Hotel segment includes Attractions, Restaurants and Vacation Rentals businesses. The Company's platform also enables users to compare real-time pricing and availability for these experiences, as well as to book hotels, flights, cruises, vacation rentals, tours, activities and attractions, and restaurants, on either a TripAdvisor site or application, or a travel partner site or application. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's TripAdvisor-branded Websites included tripadvisor.com in the United States and localized versions of the TripAdvisor Website in 48 markets and 28 languages around the world.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TripAdvisor (TRIP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 71.9
Price to Sales 5.8
Price to Book 5.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 34.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 6.1%
Total Debt to Equity 11.4%
Interest Coverage 16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Total Capital 7.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 95.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 96%
EBITDA Margin 17.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Operating Margin 11.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Net Profit Margin 8.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Effective Tax Rate 20.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

TRIP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TRIP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1556 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TripAdvisor. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of TripAdvisor. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TRIP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TRIP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TripAdvisor, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TripAdvisor.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TRIP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TRIP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.4% for TripAdvisor.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TripAdvisor. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TRIP stock is equal to 6.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TRIP are equal to 74.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TripAdvisor operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TRIP is equal to -10.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1363 million for TripAdvisor - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 140 million for TripAdvisor is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TripAdvisor at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Market Open: July 11, 2018   [10:08AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Why TripAdvisor, Inc. Stock Has Soared 68% This Year   [Jul-09-18 09:03PM  Motley Fool]
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▶ Why TripAdvisor Stock Gained 39% in May   [Jun-06-18 11:27AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Yelp launches new campaign targeting Google employees   [May-24-18 10:21AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 7 Surprising Stocks to Buy Now for Peak Earnings   [May-18-18 10:27AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ 5 Things TripAdvisor Wants You to Know   [May-15-18 01:45PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Big Deals, Big Earnings, and Big Wins   [May-12-18 03:36PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Company News For May 10, 2018   [09:51AM  Zacks]
▶ Why Tripadvisor Inc Stock Surged Today   [01:22PM  Motley Fool]
▶ TripAdvisor gains $1B in market value as core business stabilizes   [11:46AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ How TripAdvisor Shocked Its Shareholders   [06:08AM  Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] TripAdvisor shares eye best day since 2015   [01:19AM  Financial Times]
▶ TripAdvisor: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ These 7 Best-Performing CEOs Guarantee High Returns   [May-03-18 03:05PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ TripAdvisor's CEO earned nearly 500 times as much as its median employee in 2017   [Apr-27-18 11:05AM  American City Business Journals]
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