Intrinsic value of Trinity Industries - TRN

Previous Close

$37.07

  Intrinsic Value

$9.68

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-74%

Previous close

$37.07

 
Intrinsic value

$9.68

 
Up/down potential

-74%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TRN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,736
  3,822
  3,920
  4,031
  4,153
  4,287
  4,433
  4,591
  4,761
  4,944
  5,139
  5,348
  5,570
  5,806
  6,057
  6,322
  6,603
  6,900
  7,214
  7,546
  7,895
  8,264
  8,653
  9,063
  9,494
  9,948
  10,426
  10,930
  11,459
  12,016
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,679
  2,740
  2,810
  2,888
  2,975
  3,071
  3,175
  3,287
  3,409
  3,539
  3,660
  3,809
  3,967
  4,135
  4,314
  4,503
  4,703
  4,914
  5,138
  5,374
  5,623
  5,886
  6,163
  6,455
  6,762
  7,085
  7,426
  7,784
  8,161
  8,558
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  602
  615
  629
  643
  657
  671
  686
  701
  716
  732
  748
  765
  782
  799
  816
  834
  853
  871
  891
  910
  930
  951
  972
  993
  1,015
  1,037
  1,060
  1,083
  1,107
  1,131
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,281
  3,355
  3,439
  3,531
  3,632
  3,742
  3,861
  3,988
  4,125
  4,271
  4,408
  4,574
  4,749
  4,934
  5,130
  5,337
  5,556
  5,785
  6,029
  6,284
  6,553
  6,837
  7,135
  7,448
  7,777
  8,122
  8,486
  8,867
  9,268
  9,689
Operating income, $m
  456
  467
  482
  500
  521
  545
  572
  603
  636
  673
  731
  774
  821
  872
  927
  985
  1,048
  1,114
  1,185
  1,261
  1,342
  1,428
  1,519
  1,615
  1,717
  1,826
  1,941
  2,062
  2,191
  2,326
EBITDA, $m
  1,442
  1,476
  1,516
  1,563
  1,616
  1,675
  1,740
  1,811
  1,889
  1,973
  2,064
  2,162
  2,266
  2,378
  2,498
  2,625
  2,760
  2,904
  3,057
  3,219
  3,390
  3,571
  3,763
  3,966
  4,180
  4,406
  4,645
  4,897
  5,163
  5,443
Interest expense (income), $m
  151
  246
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
  204
Earnings before tax, $m
  210
  263
  278
  296
  317
  341
  368
  398
  432
  469
  526
  570
  617
  668
  722
  781
  843
  910
  981
  1,057
  1,138
  1,223
  1,314
  1,411
  1,513
  1,621
  1,736
  1,858
  1,986
  2,122
Tax expense, $m
  57
  71
  75
  80
  85
  92
  99
  108
  117
  127
  142
  154
  167
  180
  195
  211
  228
  246
  265
  285
  307
  330
  355
  381
  409
  438
  469
  502
  536
  573
Net income, $m
  153
  192
  203
  216
  231
  249
  269
  291
  315
  342
  384
  416
  450
  487
  527
  570
  616
  664
  716
  772
  830
  893
  959
  1,030
  1,105
  1,184
  1,267
  1,356
  1,450
  1,549

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Average production assets, $m
  9,692
  9,915
  10,170
  10,456
  10,773
  11,120
  11,499
  11,909
  12,351
  12,825
  13,332
  13,873
  14,449
  15,061
  15,711
  16,400
  17,128
  17,899
  18,713
  19,573
  20,481
  21,437
  22,446
  23,508
  24,628
  25,806
  27,046
  28,351
  29,724
  31,169
Working capital, $m
  -3,983
  -4,074
  -4,179
  -4,297
  -4,427
  -4,570
  -4,726
  -4,894
  -5,076
  -5,270
  -5,479
  -5,701
  -5,938
  -6,189
  -6,456
  -6,739
  -7,039
  -7,356
  -7,690
  -8,044
  -8,416
  -8,810
  -9,224
  -9,661
  -10,121
  -10,605
  -11,115
  -11,651
  -12,215
  -12,809
Total debt, $m
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
  515
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  153
  192
  203
  216
  231
  249
  269
  291
  315
  342
  384
  416
  450
  487
  527
  570
  616
  664
  716
  772
  830
  893
  959
  1,030
  1,105
  1,184
  1,267
  1,356
  1,450
  1,549
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  987
  1,009
  1,034
  1,063
  1,095
  1,130
  1,167
  1,208
  1,253
  1,300
  1,333
  1,387
  1,445
  1,506
  1,571
  1,640
  1,713
  1,790
  1,871
  1,957
  2,048
  2,144
  2,245
  2,351
  2,463
  2,581
  2,705
  2,835
  2,972
  3,117
Funds from operations, $m
  1,140
  1,201
  1,237
  1,279
  1,326
  1,378
  1,436
  1,499
  1,568
  1,642
  1,717
  1,803
  1,895
  1,994
  2,098
  2,210
  2,328
  2,454
  2,588
  2,729
  2,878
  3,037
  3,204
  3,381
  3,567
  3,764
  3,972
  4,191
  4,422
  4,666
Change in working capital, $m
  -78
  -92
  -105
  -118
  -130
  -143
  -156
  -168
  -181
  -195
  -208
  -222
  -237
  -252
  -267
  -283
  -300
  -317
  -335
  -353
  -373
  -393
  -414
  -437
  -460
  -484
  -510
  -536
  -564
  -593
Cash from operations, $m
  1,218
  1,293
  1,342
  1,396
  1,456
  1,521
  1,592
  1,668
  1,749
  1,837
  1,926
  2,026
  2,132
  2,245
  2,365
  2,493
  2,628
  2,771
  2,922
  3,082
  3,251
  3,430
  3,618
  3,817
  4,027
  4,248
  4,482
  4,728
  4,987
  5,259
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -950
  -969
  -991
  -1,017
  -1,046
  -1,077
  -1,112
  -1,150
  -1,191
  -1,235
  -1,282
  -1,333
  -1,387
  -1,445
  -1,506
  -1,571
  -1,640
  -1,713
  -1,790
  -1,871
  -1,957
  -2,048
  -2,144
  -2,245
  -2,351
  -2,463
  -2,581
  -2,705
  -2,835
  -2,972
New CAPEX, $m
  -192
  -223
  -255
  -286
  -317
  -348
  -379
  -410
  -442
  -474
  -507
  -541
  -576
  -612
  -650
  -689
  -729
  -771
  -814
  -860
  -907
  -957
  -1,009
  -1,063
  -1,119
  -1,178
  -1,240
  -1,305
  -1,373
  -1,444
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,142
  -1,192
  -1,246
  -1,303
  -1,363
  -1,425
  -1,491
  -1,560
  -1,633
  -1,709
  -1,789
  -1,874
  -1,963
  -2,057
  -2,156
  -2,260
  -2,369
  -2,484
  -2,604
  -2,731
  -2,864
  -3,005
  -3,153
  -3,308
  -3,470
  -3,641
  -3,821
  -4,010
  -4,208
  -4,416
Free cash flow, $m
  76
  100
  96
  93
  94
  96
  101
  108
  117
  128
  136
  151
  169
  188
  210
  233
  259
  287
  318
  351
  387
  425
  466
  510
  557
  607
  661
  718
  778
  843
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -105
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -105
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -29
  100
  96
  93
  94
  96
  101
  108
  117
  128
  136
  151
  169
  188
  210
  233
  259
  287
  318
  351
  387
  425
  466
  510
  557
  607
  661
  718
  778
  843
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -105
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  105
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -29
  100
  96
  93
  94
  96
  101
  108
  117
  128
  136
  151
  169
  188
  210
  233
  259
  287
  318
  351
  387
  425
  466
  510
  557
  607
  661
  718
  778
  843
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -28
  92
  83
  77
  73
  70
  68
  67
  67
  67
  65
  65
  64
  63
  62
  59
  56
  53
  49
  45
  40
  35
  31
  26
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Trinity Industries, Inc. is a diversified industrial company that owns businesses providing products and services to the energy, chemical, agriculture, transportation and construction sectors. The Company's products and services include railcars and railcar parts; parts and steel components; the leasing, management and maintenance of railcars; highway products; construction aggregates; inland barges; structural wind towers; steel utility structures; storage and distribution containers, and trench shields and shoring products. The Company's segments include the Rail Group, Construction Products Group, Inland Barge Group, Energy Equipment Group, Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group, and All Other. Its All Other segment includes its captive insurance and transportation companies, and other peripheral businesses. It manufactures a line of railcars, including autorack cars, box cars, covered hopper cars, gondola cars, intermodal cars, open hopper cars and tank cars.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Trinity Industries (TRN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.4
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 35.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -28.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 78%
Total Debt to Equity 78%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Total Capital 5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Equity 9.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.7%
EBITDA Margin 21.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Operating Margin 16.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Net Profit Margin 7.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Effective Tax Rate 35.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
Payout Ratio 19.5%

TRN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TRN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3663 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Trinity Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Trinity Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TRN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TRN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Trinity Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Trinity Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TRN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $589 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TRN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 39.7% for Trinity Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Trinity Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TRN stock is equal to 0.8%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TRN are equal to 259.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Trinity Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TRN is equal to -106.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Trinity Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 149 million for Trinity Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Trinity Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Trinity Industries, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-08-18 04:15PM  Business Wire]
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▶ Heavy options activity in Trinity Industries   [Dec-04-17 01:44PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Fall back on HD, OIH, CME & TRN   [Nov-03-17 05:30PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Trinity Industries, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Oct-26-17 08:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Trinity Industries beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-25-17 05:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ US Rail Freight Traffic on the Elevated Track in Week 40   [Oct-13-17 01:43PM  Market Realist]
▶ Fifth Circuit reverses $663 million judgment against DFW company   [Oct-02-17 04:45PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Appeals court panel overturns verdict against guardrail firm   [Sep-29-17 08:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Trinity Industries, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-06-17 07:12PM  Business Wire]
▶ Why General Electrics Transportation Revenue Fell in 2Q17   [Jul-27-17 10:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ Trinity Industries tops 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-25-17 10:59PM  Associated Press]
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