Intrinsic value of TrovaGene - TROV

Previous Close

$0.74

  Intrinsic Value

$0.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$0.74

 
Intrinsic value

$0.09

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TROV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.35
  8.02
  7.72
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Variable operating expenses, $m
  59
  64
  70
  75
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  116
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  219
  231
  244
  257
  271
  286
  301
  317
  333
  350
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  59
  64
  70
  75
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  116
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  219
  231
  244
  257
  271
  286
  301
  317
  333
  350
Operating income, $m
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -155
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -195
  -206
  -217
  -229
  -242
  -255
  -269
  -283
  -298
  -314
  -330
  -347
EBITDA, $m
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -267
  -281
  -296
  -312
  -328
  -345
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Earnings before tax, $m
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -284
  -299
  -315
  -331
  -348
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -284
  -299
  -315
  -331
  -348

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.200
  0.200
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.143
  0.143
  0.125
  0.125
  0.111
  0.111
  0.100
  0.200
  0.182
  0.167
  0.167
  0.154
  0.143
  0.133
  0.133
  0.125
  0.176
  0.167
  0.158
  0.150
  0.143
  0.136
Average production assets, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
Total debt, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
Total liabilities, $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Total equity, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -0.530
  -0.320
  -0.130
  0.030
  0.180
  0.310
  0.420
  0.530
  0.620
  0.710
  0.790
  0.860
  0.930
  0.990
  1.050
  1.100
  1.150
  1.200
  1.240
  1.280
  1.320
  1.350
  1.390
  1.420
  1.450
  1.470
  1.500
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -284
  -299
  -315
  -331
  -348
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Funds from operations, $m
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -87
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -129
  -138
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -268
  -282
  -297
  -313
  -329
  -346
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -228
  -241
  -254
  -268
  -282
  -297
  -313
  -329
  -346
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
New CAPEX, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Free cash flow, $m
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -185
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -284
  -299
  -315
  -331
  -349
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  64
  69
  75
  81
  87
  94
  100
  107
  115
  122
  130
  139
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  315
  331
  349
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  64
  69
  75
  81
  87
  94
  100
  107
  115
  122
  130
  139
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  231
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  332
  350
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -57
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -185
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -284
  -299
  -315
  -331
  -349
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -255
  -269
  -283
  -298
  -314
  -331
  -348
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -63
  -63
  -62
  -60
  -58
  -55
  -53
  -49
  -46
  -42
  -38
  -34
  -30
  -26
  -23
  -19
  -16
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  3.8
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Trovagene, Inc. is a clinical-stage, precision medicine oncology therapeutics company. The Company’s lead drug candidate, PCM-075, is a Polo-like Kinase 1 (PLK1) selective adenosine triphosphate (ATP) competitive inhibitor. PCM-075 has shown preclinical antitumor activity as a single agent and in synergy combinations with more than ten different chemotherapeutics and targeted therapies, such as Zytiga (abiraterone acetate), Beleodaq (belinostat), Quizartinib (AC220), a development stage FLT3 inhibitor, and Velcade (bortezomib) in Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML), metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) and other liquid and solid tumor cancers. PCM-075 developed high selectivity to PLK1, to be administered orally, and to have a relatively short drug half-life of approximately 24 hours compared to other PLK inhibitors. PCM-075 has completed a safety study in patients with advanced metastatic solid tumors with a phase Ib/II clinical trial in patients with AML underway.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TrovaGene (TROV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.6
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 19
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 75%
Total Debt to Equity 85%
Interest Coverage -38
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -66.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -56%
Return On Total Capital -76.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -67.2%
Return On Equity -113%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -102.6%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

TROV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TROV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $0.505404 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TrovaGene. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of TrovaGene. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TROV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TROV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TrovaGene, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TrovaGene.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TROV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 10600%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TROV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.6% for TrovaGene.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TrovaGene. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TROV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TROV are equal to 312.7%.

Life of production assets of 2.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TrovaGene operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TROV is equal to -137.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6.506107 million for TrovaGene - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.689 million for TrovaGene is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TrovaGene at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Trovagene Announces Launch of New Company Website   [Nov-13-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Trovagene: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ Trovagene Presents Outlook for Second Half of 2018   [Jul-09-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ TrovaGene Enters Oversold Territor   [Jun-25-18 06:00AM  Zacks]
▶ Trovagene Announces Leadership Change   [Jun-22-18 05:19PM  PR Newswire]
▶ TrovaGene (TROV) Enters Oversold Territory   [Jun-08-18 07:49AM  Zacks]
▶ Trovagene, Inc. Announces Reverse Stock Split   [May-31-18 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Trovagene: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-08-18 06:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ Trovagene reports 4Q loss   [Feb-26-18 05:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Who Owns Most Of TrovaGene Inc (NASDAQ:TROV)?   [Jan-24-18 07:43PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Why TrovaGene Inc (TROV) Stock Tanked 40% Today   [Dec-15-17 11:40AM  SmarterAnalyst]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TrovaGene, Inc. : December 11, 2017   [Dec-11-17 02:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TrovaGene, Inc. : November 30, 2017   [Nov-30-17 02:30PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Trovagene reports 3Q loss   [Nov-09-17 10:41AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TrovaGene, Inc. : November 1, 2017   [Nov-01-17 12:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TrovaGene, Inc. : October 10, 2017   [Oct-10-17 11:52AM  Capital Cube]
▶ When Will TrovaGene Inc (TROV) Run Out Of Cash?   [Oct-04-17 10:26AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ What Does TrovaGene Incs (TROV) Share Price Indicate?   [Sep-19-17 08:09PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TrovaGene, Inc. : September 1, 2017   [Aug-31-17 09:42PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TrovaGene, Inc. : June 5, 2017   [Jun-05-17 02:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TrovaGene, Inc. : May 25, 2017   [May-25-17 12:49PM  Capital Cube]

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