Intrinsic value of Tractor Supply - TSCO

Previous Close

$96.19

  Intrinsic Value

$73.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-24%

Previous close

$96.19

 
Intrinsic value

$73.35

 
Up/down potential

-24%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TSCO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 11.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.43
  8.08
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  7,960
  8,695
  9,461
  10,258
  11,087
  11,949
  12,845
  13,776
  14,744
  15,749
  16,795
  17,882
  19,014
  20,192
  21,418
  22,697
  24,029
  25,419
  26,869
  28,383
  29,965
  31,617
  33,344
  35,150
  37,039
  39,016
  41,086
  43,252
  45,521
  47,898
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7,147
  7,806
  8,492
  9,206
  9,950
  10,722
  11,525
  12,360
  13,227
  14,128
  15,053
  16,028
  17,042
  18,097
  19,197
  20,343
  21,537
  22,783
  24,082
  25,439
  26,857
  28,338
  29,886
  31,504
  33,198
  34,970
  36,824
  38,766
  40,800
  42,930
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,147
  7,806
  8,492
  9,206
  9,950
  10,722
  11,525
  12,360
  13,227
  14,128
  15,053
  16,028
  17,042
  18,097
  19,197
  20,343
  21,537
  22,783
  24,082
  25,439
  26,857
  28,338
  29,886
  31,504
  33,198
  34,970
  36,824
  38,766
  40,800
  42,930
Operating income, $m
  813
  889
  969
  1,051
  1,137
  1,227
  1,320
  1,416
  1,517
  1,621
  1,742
  1,855
  1,972
  2,094
  2,221
  2,354
  2,492
  2,636
  2,787
  2,944
  3,108
  3,279
  3,458
  3,646
  3,842
  4,047
  4,261
  4,486
  4,721
  4,968
EBITDA, $m
  998
  1,090
  1,186
  1,286
  1,390
  1,498
  1,610
  1,727
  1,848
  1,974
  2,105
  2,241
  2,383
  2,531
  2,684
  2,845
  3,012
  3,186
  3,368
  3,557
  3,756
  3,963
  4,179
  4,405
  4,642
  4,890
  5,149
  5,421
  5,705
  6,003
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  25
  32
  40
  49
  57
  66
  76
  85
  95
  106
  116
  128
  139
  152
  164
  178
  191
  206
  221
  236
  253
  270
  288
  306
  326
  346
  367
  390
  413
  438
Earnings before tax, $m
  788
  857
  928
  1,003
  1,080
  1,161
  1,244
  1,331
  1,421
  1,515
  1,625
  1,727
  1,833
  1,943
  2,057
  2,176
  2,301
  2,431
  2,566
  2,707
  2,855
  3,009
  3,171
  3,339
  3,516
  3,701
  3,894
  4,096
  4,308
  4,530
Tax expense, $m
  213
  231
  251
  271
  292
  313
  336
  359
  384
  409
  439
  466
  495
  524
  555
  588
  621
  656
  693
  731
  771
  813
  856
  902
  949
  999
  1,051
  1,106
  1,163
  1,223
Net income, $m
  575
  626
  678
  732
  789
  847
  908
  972
  1,038
  1,106
  1,187
  1,261
  1,338
  1,418
  1,502
  1,589
  1,680
  1,774
  1,873
  1,976
  2,084
  2,197
  2,315
  2,438
  2,567
  2,701
  2,843
  2,990
  3,145
  3,307

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,148
  3,438
  3,741
  4,056
  4,384
  4,725
  5,079
  5,447
  5,830
  6,227
  6,641
  7,071
  7,518
  7,984
  8,469
  8,975
  9,501
  10,051
  10,624
  11,223
  11,848
  12,502
  13,185
  13,899
  14,646
  15,428
  16,246
  17,102
  18,000
  18,940
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,148
  3,438
  3,741
  4,056
  4,384
  4,725
  5,079
  5,447
  5,830
  6,227
  6,641
  7,071
  7,518
  7,984
  8,469
  8,975
  9,501
  10,051
  10,624
  11,223
  11,848
  12,502
  13,185
  13,899
  14,646
  15,428
  16,246
  17,102
  18,000
  18,940
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
  2.529
Average production assets, $m
  1,170
  1,278
  1,391
  1,508
  1,630
  1,757
  1,888
  2,025
  2,167
  2,315
  2,469
  2,629
  2,795
  2,968
  3,149
  3,336
  3,532
  3,737
  3,950
  4,172
  4,405
  4,648
  4,902
  5,167
  5,445
  5,735
  6,040
  6,358
  6,692
  7,041
Working capital, $m
  796
  869
  946
  1,026
  1,109
  1,195
  1,285
  1,378
  1,474
  1,575
  1,679
  1,788
  1,901
  2,019
  2,142
  2,270
  2,403
  2,542
  2,687
  2,838
  2,996
  3,162
  3,334
  3,515
  3,704
  3,902
  4,109
  4,325
  4,552
  4,790
Total debt, $m
  602
  748
  901
  1,060
  1,226
  1,398
  1,577
  1,763
  1,956
  2,157
  2,366
  2,583
  2,809
  3,044
  3,289
  3,544
  3,810
  4,088
  4,377
  4,680
  4,996
  5,325
  5,670
  6,031
  6,408
  6,803
  7,216
  7,649
  8,102
  8,577
Total liabilities, $m
  1,590
  1,736
  1,889
  2,048
  2,214
  2,386
  2,565
  2,751
  2,944
  3,145
  3,354
  3,571
  3,797
  4,032
  4,277
  4,532
  4,798
  5,076
  5,365
  5,668
  5,983
  6,313
  6,658
  7,019
  7,396
  7,791
  8,204
  8,637
  9,090
  9,564
Total equity, $m
  1,558
  1,702
  1,852
  2,008
  2,170
  2,339
  2,514
  2,696
  2,886
  3,083
  3,287
  3,500
  3,722
  3,952
  4,192
  4,442
  4,703
  4,975
  5,259
  5,555
  5,865
  6,188
  6,526
  6,880
  7,250
  7,637
  8,042
  8,466
  8,910
  9,375
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,148
  3,438
  3,741
  4,056
  4,384
  4,725
  5,079
  5,447
  5,830
  6,228
  6,641
  7,071
  7,519
  7,984
  8,469
  8,974
  9,501
  10,051
  10,624
  11,223
  11,848
  12,501
  13,184
  13,899
  14,646
  15,428
  16,246
  17,103
  18,000
  18,939
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.390
  0.440
  0.490
  0.530
  0.560
  0.600
  0.630
  0.650
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  575
  626
  678
  732
  789
  847
  908
  972
  1,038
  1,106
  1,187
  1,261
  1,338
  1,418
  1,502
  1,589
  1,680
  1,774
  1,873
  1,976
  2,084
  2,197
  2,315
  2,438
  2,567
  2,701
  2,843
  2,990
  3,145
  3,307
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  185
  200
  217
  234
  252
  271
  290
  310
  331
  353
  363
  387
  411
  436
  463
  491
  519
  549
  581
  614
  648
  683
  721
  760
  801
  843
  888
  935
  984
  1,035
Funds from operations, $m
  760
  826
  895
  966
  1,041
  1,118
  1,198
  1,282
  1,369
  1,459
  1,550
  1,647
  1,749
  1,855
  1,965
  2,079
  2,199
  2,324
  2,454
  2,590
  2,732
  2,880
  3,035
  3,198
  3,367
  3,545
  3,731
  3,925
  4,129
  4,343
Change in working capital, $m
  70
  73
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
Cash from operations, $m
  690
  752
  818
  887
  958
  1,032
  1,109
  1,189
  1,272
  1,359
  1,445
  1,538
  1,636
  1,737
  1,842
  1,952
  2,066
  2,185
  2,309
  2,439
  2,574
  2,715
  2,863
  3,017
  3,178
  3,347
  3,524
  3,709
  3,902
  4,105
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -157
  -172
  -188
  -205
  -222
  -240
  -258
  -278
  -298
  -319
  -340
  -363
  -387
  -411
  -436
  -463
  -491
  -519
  -549
  -581
  -614
  -648
  -683
  -721
  -760
  -801
  -843
  -888
  -935
  -984
New CAPEX, $m
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -213
  -223
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -265
  -278
  -291
  -304
  -318
  -334
  -349
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -261
  -280
  -301
  -322
  -344
  -367
  -390
  -415
  -440
  -467
  -494
  -523
  -553
  -584
  -616
  -651
  -687
  -723
  -762
  -804
  -846
  -891
  -937
  -986
  -1,038
  -1,092
  -1,147
  -1,206
  -1,269
  -1,333
Free cash flow, $m
  429
  472
  518
  565
  614
  665
  719
  774
  832
  892
  951
  1,016
  1,083
  1,153
  1,225
  1,301
  1,379
  1,461
  1,546
  1,635
  1,728
  1,824
  1,925
  2,031
  2,141
  2,256
  2,376
  2,502
  2,634
  2,771
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  139
  147
  153
  159
  166
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  278
  290
  302
  316
  330
  345
  361
  377
  395
  413
  433
  453
  475
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  139
  147
  153
  159
  166
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  278
  290
  302
  316
  330
  345
  361
  377
  395
  413
  433
  453
  475
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  568
  619
  670
  724
  780
  838
  898
  960
  1,025
  1,093
  1,160
  1,233
  1,309
  1,388
  1,470
  1,556
  1,645
  1,739
  1,836
  1,937
  2,044
  2,154
  2,270
  2,391
  2,518
  2,651
  2,789
  2,935
  3,087
  3,246
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -221
  -231
  -240
  -250
  -261
  -272
  -284
  -296
  -310
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -370
  -387
  -405
  -424
  -444
  -465
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  429
  475
  521
  568
  617
  669
  722
  778
  836
  896
  955
  1,020
  1,087
  1,157
  1,230
  1,306
  1,385
  1,467
  1,552
  1,641
  1,734
  1,831
  1,932
  2,038
  2,148
  2,264
  2,384
  2,511
  2,643
  2,781
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  411
  435
  453
  468
  479
  485
  488
  486
  480
  470
  454
  435
  413
  389
  361
  332
  301
  270
  239
  209
  179
  152
  127
  104
  84
  66
  51
  39
  29
  21
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Tractor Supply Company is an operator of rural lifestyle retail stores in the United States. The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers and ranchers and others, as well as tradesmen and small businesses. It is engaged in the retail sale of products that support the rural lifestyle. The Company operates retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply and Petsense, and operates Websites under the names TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com. The Company's selection of merchandise consists of various product categories, including equine, livestock, pet and small animal products; hardware, truck, towing and tool products; seasonal products, including heating, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts and toys; work/recreational clothing and footwear, and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use. Its brands include 4health, JobSmart, Bit & Bridle, Paws & Claws, Blue Mountain, Redstone, Dumor, Equistages and Royal Wing.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tractor Supply (TSCO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.8
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 8.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 30.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -4.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 20%
Total Debt to Equity 20.7%
Interest Coverage 116
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 17.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Return On Total Capital 26.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Return On Equity 30.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
EBITDA Margin 12.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Operating Margin 10.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Net Profit Margin 6.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Effective Tax Rate 36.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.7%
Payout Ratio 27.9%

TSCO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TSCO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7256.382 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tractor Supply. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Tractor Supply. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TSCO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TSCO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tractor Supply, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tractor Supply.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TSCO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TSCO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Tractor Supply.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tractor Supply. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TSCO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TSCO are equal to 14.7%.

Life of production assets of 6.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tractor Supply operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TSCO is equal to 10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1418.673 million for Tractor Supply - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 122.05 million for Tractor Supply is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tractor Supply at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $11.7 billion.

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