Intrinsic value of TIM Participacoes ADR - TSU

Previous Close

$15.70

  Intrinsic Value

$45.92

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+192%

Previous close

$15.70

 
Intrinsic value

$45.92

 
Up/down potential

+192%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of TSU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.20
  2.48
  2.73
  2.96
  3.16
  3.35
  3.51
  3.66
  3.79
  3.92
  4.02
  4.12
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  5,011
  5,135
  5,275
  5,432
  5,603
  5,791
  5,994
  6,214
  6,449
  6,702
  6,972
  7,259
  7,565
  7,889
  8,233
  8,597
  8,982
  9,389
  9,819
  10,273
  10,752
  11,257
  11,788
  12,349
  12,938
  13,559
  14,213
  14,900
  15,623
  16,384
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,547
  4,652
  4,769
  4,900
  5,045
  5,202
  5,373
  5,557
  5,755
  5,967
  5,851
  6,093
  6,349
  6,621
  6,910
  7,216
  7,539
  7,881
  8,242
  8,623
  9,024
  9,448
  9,894
  10,364
  10,859
  11,381
  11,929
  12,506
  13,113
  13,751
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,547
  4,652
  4,769
  4,900
  5,045
  5,202
  5,373
  5,557
  5,755
  5,967
  5,851
  6,093
  6,349
  6,621
  6,910
  7,216
  7,539
  7,881
  8,242
  8,623
  9,024
  9,448
  9,894
  10,364
  10,859
  11,381
  11,929
  12,506
  13,113
  13,751
Operating income, $m
  464
  483
  506
  531
  559
  589
  622
  657
  695
  735
  1,120
  1,166
  1,216
  1,268
  1,323
  1,381
  1,443
  1,509
  1,578
  1,651
  1,728
  1,809
  1,894
  1,984
  2,079
  2,179
  2,284
  2,394
  2,510
  2,633
EBITDA, $m
  1,736
  1,779
  1,828
  1,882
  1,942
  2,007
  2,077
  2,153
  2,235
  2,322
  2,416
  2,515
  2,621
  2,734
  2,853
  2,979
  3,112
  3,253
  3,402
  3,560
  3,726
  3,900
  4,085
  4,279
  4,483
  4,698
  4,925
  5,163
  5,414
  5,677
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  262
  275
  289
  306
  324
  344
  366
  390
  416
  444
  473
  505
  539
  574
  613
  653
  696
  741
  789
  839
  893
  949
  1,008
  1,070
  1,136
  1,205
  1,278
  1,355
  1,436
  1,521
Earnings before tax, $m
  201
  209
  217
  225
  235
  245
  255
  267
  279
  292
  647
  662
  677
  693
  710
  728
  748
  768
  789
  812
  835
  860
  886
  914
  943
  973
  1,005
  1,039
  1,075
  1,112
Tax expense, $m
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  175
  179
  183
  187
  192
  197
  202
  207
  213
  219
  225
  232
  239
  247
  255
  263
  271
  281
  290
  300
Net income, $m
  147
  152
  158
  165
  171
  179
  186
  195
  204
  213
  472
  483
  494
  506
  519
  532
  546
  561
  576
  592
  610
  628
  647
  667
  688
  711
  734
  759
  784
  812

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  10,062
  10,312
  10,593
  10,907
  11,252
  11,628
  12,037
  12,477
  12,951
  13,458
  13,999
  14,576
  15,190
  15,841
  16,532
  17,263
  18,037
  18,854
  19,718
  20,629
  21,590
  22,604
  23,671
  24,796
  25,981
  27,228
  28,540
  29,920
  31,372
  32,900
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  10,062
  10,312
  10,593
  10,907
  11,252
  11,628
  12,037
  12,477
  12,951
  13,458
  13,999
  14,576
  15,190
  15,841
  16,532
  17,263
  18,037
  18,854
  19,718
  20,629
  21,590
  22,604
  23,671
  24,796
  25,981
  27,228
  28,540
  29,920
  31,372
  32,900
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
Average production assets, $m
  5,121
  5,248
  5,392
  5,551
  5,727
  5,918
  6,126
  6,350
  6,591
  6,849
  7,125
  7,419
  7,731
  8,062
  8,414
  8,786
  9,180
  9,596
  10,035
  10,499
  10,988
  11,504
  12,048
  12,620
  13,223
  13,858
  14,525
  15,228
  15,967
  16,744
Working capital, $m
  -561
  -575
  -591
  -608
  -628
  -649
  -671
  -696
  -722
  -751
  -781
  -813
  -847
  -884
  -922
  -963
  -1,006
  -1,052
  -1,100
  -1,151
  -1,204
  -1,261
  -1,320
  -1,383
  -1,449
  -1,519
  -1,592
  -1,669
  -1,750
  -1,835
Total debt, $m
  2,080
  2,191
  2,316
  2,454
  2,607
  2,774
  2,955
  3,150
  3,360
  3,585
  3,824
  4,080
  4,352
  4,640
  4,946
  5,270
  5,613
  5,975
  6,358
  6,761
  7,187
  7,636
  8,109
  8,608
  9,132
  9,685
  10,266
  10,877
  11,521
  12,197
Total liabilities, $m
  4,457
  4,568
  4,693
  4,832
  4,985
  5,151
  5,332
  5,527
  5,737
  5,962
  6,202
  6,457
  6,729
  7,018
  7,324
  7,648
  7,990
  8,352
  8,735
  9,139
  9,564
  10,013
  10,486
  10,985
  11,509
  12,062
  12,643
  13,255
  13,898
  14,575
Total equity, $m
  5,605
  5,744
  5,900
  6,075
  6,267
  6,477
  6,704
  6,950
  7,214
  7,496
  7,798
  8,119
  8,461
  8,824
  9,208
  9,616
  10,046
  10,502
  10,983
  11,490
  12,026
  12,590
  13,185
  13,812
  14,471
  15,166
  15,897
  16,666
  17,474
  18,325
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  10,062
  10,312
  10,593
  10,907
  11,252
  11,628
  12,036
  12,477
  12,951
  13,458
  14,000
  14,576
  15,190
  15,842
  16,532
  17,264
  18,036
  18,854
  19,718
  20,629
  21,590
  22,603
  23,671
  24,797
  25,980
  27,228
  28,540
  29,921
  31,372
  32,900
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  147
  152
  158
  165
  171
  179
  186
  195
  204
  213
  472
  483
  494
  506
  519
  532
  546
  561
  576
  592
  610
  628
  647
  667
  688
  711
  734
  759
  784
  812
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,273
  1,296
  1,322
  1,351
  1,383
  1,418
  1,456
  1,496
  1,540
  1,587
  1,295
  1,349
  1,406
  1,466
  1,530
  1,597
  1,669
  1,745
  1,825
  1,909
  1,998
  2,092
  2,190
  2,295
  2,404
  2,520
  2,641
  2,769
  2,903
  3,044
Funds from operations, $m
  1,420
  1,448
  1,480
  1,516
  1,554
  1,596
  1,642
  1,691
  1,744
  1,800
  1,768
  1,832
  1,900
  1,972
  2,048
  2,129
  2,215
  2,305
  2,401
  2,501
  2,608
  2,720
  2,837
  2,962
  3,092
  3,230
  3,375
  3,527
  3,688
  3,856
Change in working capital, $m
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
Cash from operations, $m
  1,432
  1,462
  1,496
  1,533
  1,573
  1,617
  1,665
  1,716
  1,770
  1,828
  1,798
  1,864
  1,934
  2,008
  2,087
  2,170
  2,258
  2,351
  2,449
  2,552
  2,661
  2,776
  2,897
  3,024
  3,159
  3,300
  3,448
  3,604
  3,769
  3,941
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -911
  -931
  -954
  -980
  -1,009
  -1,041
  -1,076
  -1,114
  -1,155
  -1,198
  -1,245
  -1,295
  -1,349
  -1,406
  -1,466
  -1,530
  -1,597
  -1,669
  -1,745
  -1,825
  -1,909
  -1,998
  -2,092
  -2,190
  -2,295
  -2,404
  -2,520
  -2,641
  -2,769
  -2,903
New CAPEX, $m
  -112
  -127
  -143
  -160
  -176
  -192
  -208
  -224
  -241
  -258
  -276
  -294
  -312
  -332
  -351
  -372
  -394
  -416
  -439
  -464
  -489
  -516
  -543
  -572
  -603
  -635
  -668
  -703
  -739
  -777
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,023
  -1,058
  -1,097
  -1,140
  -1,185
  -1,233
  -1,284
  -1,338
  -1,396
  -1,456
  -1,521
  -1,589
  -1,661
  -1,738
  -1,817
  -1,902
  -1,991
  -2,085
  -2,184
  -2,289
  -2,398
  -2,514
  -2,635
  -2,762
  -2,898
  -3,039
  -3,188
  -3,344
  -3,508
  -3,680
Free cash flow, $m
  409
  404
  398
  393
  389
  384
  381
  377
  374
  372
  277
  275
  273
  271
  270
  268
  267
  266
  265
  264
  263
  262
  262
  261
  261
  261
  261
  261
  261
  261
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  93
  111
  125
  139
  153
  167
  181
  195
  210
  225
  240
  256
  272
  289
  306
  324
  343
  362
  383
  404
  426
  449
  473
  498
  525
  552
  581
  612
  643
  677
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  10
  21
  31
  41
  51
  60
  69
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  10
  24
  39
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  93
  111
  125
  149
  174
  198
  222
  246
  270
  294
  240
  256
  272
  289
  306
  324
  343
  362
  383
  404
  426
  449
  473
  498
  525
  552
  581
  622
  667
  716
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  503
  515
  523
  542
  562
  582
  603
  623
  644
  666
  517
  530
  545
  560
  575
  592
  609
  628
  647
  667
  689
  711
  735
  760
  786
  813
  842
  883
  928
  976
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -122
  -139
  -157
  -175
  -192
  -210
  -227
  -245
  -264
  -282
  -302
  -321
  -342
  -363
  -385
  -407
  -431
  -455
  -481
  -508
  -535
  -564
  -595
  -627
  -660
  -694
  -731
  -769
  -809
  -851
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  380
  376
  366
  367
  370
  373
  375
  378
  381
  383
  215
  209
  203
  197
  191
  185
  179
  172
  166
  160
  153
  147
  140
  133
  126
  119
  111
  114
  120
  126
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  365
  344
  319
  303
  287
  270
  254
  236
  219
  201
  102
  89
  77
  66
  56
  47
  39
  32
  26
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.8
  99.3
  98.6
  97.7
  96.6
  95.5
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.2
  94.1
  93.9
  93.6

TIM Participacoes S.A. (TIM) is a provider of mobile telecommunication services in Brazil. The Company, through its subsidiaries in various telecommunications markets, operates mobile, fixed and long distance telephony, data transmission and ultra-broadband services. Its direct subsidiaries include TIM Celular S.A., which provides landline telephone services (commuted fixed telephonic service (STFC))-domestic long distance and international long distance voice services, personal mobile service (SMP) and multimedia communication service (multimedia service of communication (SCM)) in all Brazilian states and in the Federal District, and Intelig Telecomunicacoes Ltda., which provides STFC-local voices services and SCM services in all Brazilian states and in the Federal District. Its consumer plans include prepaid plans, post-paid plans and controle plans. It offers value-added services, including short message services or text messaging, multimedia messaging services and push-mail.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TIM Participacoes ADR (TSU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 160.3
Price to Sales 7.7
Price to Book 7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 246.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -5.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 42.3%
Total Debt to Equity 49.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 4.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.2%
EBITDA Margin 30.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.2%
Operating Margin 9.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Net Profit Margin 4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Effective Tax Rate 25.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.6%
Payout Ratio 61.6%

TSU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TSU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4903.03805497 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TIM Participacoes ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of TIM Participacoes ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TSU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TSU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TIM Participacoes ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TIM Participacoes ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TSU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TSU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 13.2% for TIM Participacoes ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TIM Participacoes ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TSU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TSU are equal to 102.2%.

Life of production assets of 5.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TIM Participacoes ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TSU is equal to -11.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5482.08517064 million for TIM Participacoes ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 72.603 million for TIM Participacoes ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TIM Participacoes ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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