Intrinsic value of TIM Participacoes ADR - TSU

Previous Close

$17.27

  Intrinsic Value

$1.81

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$17.27

 
Intrinsic value

$1.81

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TSU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 41.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.50
  9.95
  9.45
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
Revenue, $m
  5,301
  5,828
  6,379
  6,954
  7,553
  8,175
  8,823
  9,496
  10,196
  10,923
  11,679
  12,464
  13,281
  14,131
  15,015
  15,936
  16,895
  17,895
  18,937
  20,025
  21,160
  22,345
  23,584
  24,878
  26,231
  27,646
  29,127
  30,676
  32,298
  33,997
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,259
  4,651
  5,059
  5,486
  5,930
  6,392
  6,873
  7,372
  7,891
  8,431
  8,665
  9,247
  9,853
  10,484
  11,140
  11,823
  12,535
  13,277
  14,050
  14,857
  15,699
  16,578
  17,497
  18,457
  19,461
  20,511
  21,609
  22,759
  23,963
  25,223
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,259
  4,651
  5,059
  5,486
  5,930
  6,392
  6,873
  7,372
  7,891
  8,431
  8,665
  9,247
  9,853
  10,484
  11,140
  11,823
  12,535
  13,277
  14,050
  14,857
  15,699
  16,578
  17,497
  18,457
  19,461
  20,511
  21,609
  22,759
  23,963
  25,223
Operating income, $m
  1,041
  1,178
  1,320
  1,468
  1,623
  1,783
  1,951
  2,124
  2,305
  2,492
  3,014
  3,217
  3,428
  3,647
  3,875
  4,113
  4,360
  4,618
  4,887
  5,168
  5,461
  5,767
  6,087
  6,421
  6,770
  7,135
  7,517
  7,917
  8,336
  8,774
EBITDA, $m
  2,025
  2,227
  2,437
  2,657
  2,886
  3,124
  3,371
  3,628
  3,896
  4,174
  4,462
  4,762
  5,074
  5,399
  5,737
  6,089
  6,455
  6,837
  7,236
  7,651
  8,085
  8,538
  9,011
  9,505
  10,022
  10,563
  11,129
  11,721
  12,341
  12,990
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  369
  448
  531
  618
  708
  803
  901
  1,003
  1,109
  1,219
  1,334
  1,453
  1,577
  1,705
  1,839
  1,979
  2,124
  2,275
  2,432
  2,597
  2,768
  2,947
  3,134
  3,329
  3,533
  3,746
  3,969
  4,202
  4,446
  4,702
Earnings before tax, $m
  672
  730
  789
  850
  914
  981
  1,050
  1,121
  1,196
  1,273
  1,680
  1,764
  1,851
  1,942
  2,036
  2,134
  2,237
  2,344
  2,455
  2,572
  2,693
  2,820
  2,953
  3,092
  3,237
  3,389
  3,548
  3,715
  3,889
  4,072
Tax expense, $m
  182
  197
  213
  230
  247
  265
  283
  303
  323
  344
  454
  476
  500
  524
  550
  576
  604
  633
  663
  694
  727
  761
  797
  835
  874
  915
  958
  1,003
  1,050
  1,099
Net income, $m
  491
  533
  576
  621
  667
  716
  766
  819
  873
  929
  1,227
  1,288
  1,351
  1,417
  1,486
  1,558
  1,633
  1,711
  1,792
  1,877
  1,966
  2,059
  2,156
  2,257
  2,363
  2,474
  2,590
  2,712
  2,839
  2,973

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  11,753
  12,923
  14,144
  15,419
  16,746
  18,127
  19,564
  21,056
  22,608
  24,220
  25,895
  27,637
  29,448
  31,332
  33,293
  35,335
  37,462
  39,678
  41,990
  44,401
  46,918
  49,546
  52,292
  55,162
  58,162
  61,299
  64,582
  68,018
  71,615
  75,381
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  11,753
  12,923
  14,144
  15,419
  16,746
  18,127
  19,564
  21,056
  22,608
  24,220
  25,895
  27,637
  29,448
  31,332
  33,293
  35,335
  37,462
  39,678
  41,990
  44,401
  46,918
  49,546
  52,292
  55,162
  58,162
  61,299
  64,582
  68,018
  71,615
  75,381
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
Average production assets, $m
  6,573
  7,227
  7,910
  8,623
  9,365
  10,138
  10,941
  11,776
  12,643
  13,545
  14,482
  15,456
  16,469
  17,522
  18,619
  19,761
  20,950
  22,190
  23,482
  24,831
  26,238
  27,708
  29,244
  30,849
  32,526
  34,281
  36,117
  38,038
  40,050
  42,156
Working capital, $m
  48
  52
  57
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  249
  262
  276
  291
  306
Total debt, $m
  3,176
  3,766
  4,381
  5,024
  5,693
  6,389
  7,113
  7,865
  8,647
  9,459
  10,304
  11,182
  12,095
  13,044
  14,032
  15,061
  16,133
  17,251
  18,416
  19,631
  20,899
  22,224
  23,608
  25,054
  26,566
  28,148
  29,802
  31,534
  33,346
  35,245
Total liabilities, $m
  5,924
  6,513
  7,129
  7,771
  8,440
  9,136
  9,860
  10,612
  11,394
  12,207
  13,051
  13,929
  14,842
  15,791
  16,780
  17,809
  18,881
  19,998
  21,163
  22,378
  23,647
  24,971
  26,355
  27,801
  29,313
  30,895
  32,549
  34,281
  36,094
  37,992
Total equity, $m
  5,830
  6,410
  7,016
  7,648
  8,306
  8,991
  9,704
  10,444
  11,213
  12,013
  12,844
  13,708
  14,606
  15,541
  16,513
  17,526
  18,581
  19,680
  20,827
  22,023
  23,271
  24,575
  25,937
  27,360
  28,848
  30,404
  32,033
  33,737
  35,521
  37,389
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  11,754
  12,923
  14,145
  15,419
  16,746
  18,127
  19,564
  21,056
  22,607
  24,220
  25,895
  27,637
  29,448
  31,332
  33,293
  35,335
  37,462
  39,678
  41,990
  44,401
  46,918
  49,546
  52,292
  55,161
  58,161
  61,299
  64,582
  68,018
  71,615
  75,381
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.540
  0.590
  0.620
  0.660
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  491
  533
  576
  621
  667
  716
  766
  819
  873
  929
  1,227
  1,288
  1,351
  1,417
  1,486
  1,558
  1,633
  1,711
  1,792
  1,877
  1,966
  2,059
  2,156
  2,257
  2,363
  2,474
  2,590
  2,712
  2,839
  2,973
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  984
  1,049
  1,118
  1,189
  1,263
  1,340
  1,421
  1,504
  1,591
  1,681
  1,448
  1,546
  1,647
  1,752
  1,862
  1,976
  2,095
  2,219
  2,348
  2,483
  2,624
  2,771
  2,924
  3,085
  3,253
  3,428
  3,612
  3,804
  4,005
  4,216
Funds from operations, $m
  1,475
  1,582
  1,693
  1,810
  1,931
  2,056
  2,187
  2,323
  2,464
  2,611
  2,675
  2,833
  2,998
  3,170
  3,348
  3,534
  3,728
  3,930
  4,140
  4,360
  4,590
  4,830
  5,080
  5,342
  5,616
  5,902
  6,202
  6,516
  6,844
  7,188
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
Cash from operations, $m
  1,470
  1,577
  1,688
  1,804
  1,925
  2,051
  2,181
  2,317
  2,458
  2,604
  2,668
  2,826
  2,991
  3,162
  3,340
  3,526
  3,719
  3,921
  4,131
  4,351
  4,580
  4,819
  5,069
  5,330
  5,604
  5,889
  6,189
  6,502
  6,830
  7,173
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -595
  -657
  -723
  -791
  -862
  -937
  -1,014
  -1,094
  -1,178
  -1,264
  -1,354
  -1,448
  -1,546
  -1,647
  -1,752
  -1,862
  -1,976
  -2,095
  -2,219
  -2,348
  -2,483
  -2,624
  -2,771
  -2,924
  -3,085
  -3,253
  -3,428
  -3,612
  -3,804
  -4,005
New CAPEX, $m
  -626
  -654
  -683
  -713
  -742
  -772
  -803
  -835
  -868
  -902
  -937
  -974
  -1,013
  -1,054
  -1,097
  -1,142
  -1,189
  -1,240
  -1,293
  -1,349
  -1,408
  -1,470
  -1,535
  -1,605
  -1,678
  -1,755
  -1,836
  -1,921
  -2,011
  -2,106
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,221
  -1,311
  -1,406
  -1,504
  -1,604
  -1,709
  -1,817
  -1,929
  -2,046
  -2,166
  -2,291
  -2,422
  -2,559
  -2,701
  -2,849
  -3,004
  -3,165
  -3,335
  -3,512
  -3,697
  -3,891
  -4,094
  -4,306
  -4,529
  -4,763
  -5,008
  -5,264
  -5,533
  -5,815
  -6,111
Free cash flow, $m
  250
  266
  282
  301
  321
  342
  364
  388
  412
  438
  377
  404
  432
  461
  491
  522
  554
  586
  619
  654
  689
  725
  763
  801
  841
  882
  925
  969
  1,014
  1,062
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  559
  589
  616
  642
  669
  696
  724
  752
  782
  813
  844
  878
  913
  950
  988
  1,029
  1,072
  1,117
  1,165
  1,215
  1,269
  1,325
  1,384
  1,446
  1,512
  1,581
  1,655
  1,732
  1,813
  1,898
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  60
  47
  30
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  619
  636
  646
  653
  669
  696
  724
  752
  782
  813
  844
  878
  913
  950
  988
  1,029
  1,072
  1,117
  1,165
  1,215
  1,269
  1,325
  1,384
  1,446
  1,512
  1,581
  1,655
  1,732
  1,813
  1,898
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  869
  903
  929
  954
  990
  1,038
  1,088
  1,140
  1,194
  1,251
  1,221
  1,282
  1,345
  1,411
  1,480
  1,551
  1,626
  1,703
  1,784
  1,869
  1,957
  2,050
  2,146
  2,247
  2,353
  2,464
  2,579
  2,700
  2,827
  2,960
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -551
  -580
  -606
  -632
  -658
  -685
  -712
  -740
  -769
  -800
  -831
  -864
  -898
  -935
  -973
  -1,013
  -1,055
  -1,099
  -1,146
  -1,196
  -1,248
  -1,304
  -1,362
  -1,423
  -1,488
  -1,556
  -1,628
  -1,704
  -1,784
  -1,868
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  318
  323
  322
  322
  331
  353
  376
  400
  425
  451
  390
  418
  447
  477
  507
  538
  571
  604
  638
  673
  709
  746
  785
  824
  865
  907
  951
  996
  1,043
  1,092
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  305
  295
  281
  265
  257
  256
  254
  250
  244
  236
  185
  178
  170
  160
  149
  137
  124
  111
  98
  86
  73
  62
  51
  42
  34
  26
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.9
  99.8
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7
  99.7

TIM Participacoes S.A. (TIM) is a provider of mobile telecommunication services in Brazil. The Company, through its subsidiaries in various telecommunications markets, operates mobile, fixed and long distance telephony, data transmission and ultra-broadband services. Its direct subsidiaries include TIM Celular S.A., which provides landline telephone services (commuted fixed telephonic service (STFC))-domestic long distance and international long distance voice services, personal mobile service (SMP) and multimedia communication service (multimedia service of communication (SCM)) in all Brazilian states and in the Federal District, and Intelig Telecomunicacoes Ltda., which provides STFC-local voices services and SCM services in all Brazilian states and in the Federal District. Its consumer plans include prepaid plans, post-paid plans and controle plans. It offers value-added services, including short message services or text messaging, multimedia messaging services and push-mail.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TIM Participacoes ADR (TSU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 176.4
Price to Sales 8.5
Price to Book 7.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 271.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -5.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 42.3%
Total Debt to Equity 49.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 4.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.2%
EBITDA Margin 30.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.2%
Operating Margin 9.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Net Profit Margin 4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Effective Tax Rate 25.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.6%
Payout Ratio 61.6%

TSU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TSU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4797 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TIM Participacoes ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of TIM Participacoes ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TSU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TSU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TIM Participacoes ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TIM Participacoes ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TSU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TSU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 14.1% for TIM Participacoes ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TIM Participacoes ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TSU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TSU are equal to 124%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TIM Participacoes ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TSU is equal to 0.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5279 million for TIM Participacoes ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 2421 million for TIM Participacoes ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TIM Participacoes ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $41.8 billion.

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