Intrinsic value of The Trade Desk, Inc. - TTD

Previous Close

$233.13

  Intrinsic Value

$472.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+103%

Previous close

$233.13

 
Intrinsic value

$472.30

 
Up/down potential

+103%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of TTD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 10.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  56.30
  51.17
  46.55
  42.40
  38.66
  35.29
  32.26
  29.54
  27.08
  24.87
  22.89
  21.10
  19.49
  18.04
  16.74
  15.56
  14.51
  13.56
  12.70
  11.93
  11.24
  10.61
  10.05
  9.55
  9.09
  8.68
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.42
Revenue, $m
  746
  1,127
  1,652
  2,352
  3,261
  4,412
  5,836
  7,559
  9,607
  11,996
  14,742
  17,852
  21,332
  25,180
  29,394
  33,968
  38,895
  44,168
  49,777
  55,715
  61,976
  68,554
  75,445
  82,647
  90,162
  97,990
  106,138
  114,611
  123,418
  132,571
Variable operating expenses, $m
  579
  875
  1,282
  1,825
  2,531
  3,424
  4,529
  5,866
  7,455
  9,309
  11,440
  13,853
  16,553
  19,539
  22,810
  26,359
  30,183
  34,274
  38,627
  43,235
  48,094
  53,198
  58,545
  64,134
  69,965
  76,040
  82,363
  88,938
  95,772
  102,875
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  579
  875
  1,282
  1,825
  2,531
  3,424
  4,529
  5,866
  7,455
  9,309
  11,440
  13,853
  16,553
  19,539
  22,810
  26,359
  30,183
  34,274
  38,627
  43,235
  48,094
  53,198
  58,545
  64,134
  69,965
  76,040
  82,363
  88,938
  95,772
  102,875
Operating income, $m
  167
  252
  370
  527
  731
  988
  1,307
  1,693
  2,152
  2,687
  3,302
  3,999
  4,778
  5,640
  6,584
  7,609
  8,713
  9,894
  11,150
  12,480
  13,883
  15,356
  16,900
  18,513
  20,196
  21,950
  23,775
  25,673
  27,646
  29,696
EBITDA, $m
  175
  264
  387
  552
  765
  1,035
  1,369
  1,773
  2,254
  2,814
  3,458
  4,188
  5,004
  5,907
  6,896
  7,969
  9,125
  10,362
  11,678
  13,071
  14,540
  16,083
  17,699
  19,389
  21,152
  22,988
  24,900
  26,888
  28,954
  31,101
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  0
  47
  113
  205
  327
  485
  686
  934
  1,234
  1,591
  2,007
  2,486
  3,028
  3,634
  4,304
  5,039
  5,836
  6,694
  7,613
  8,591
  9,625
  10,716
  11,862
  13,063
  14,318
  15,628
  16,992
  18,411
  19,888
  21,423
Earnings before tax, $m
  167
  206
  257
  322
  404
  503
  622
  760
  918
  1,096
  1,295
  1,513
  1,751
  2,006
  2,280
  2,570
  2,877
  3,199
  3,537
  3,890
  4,257
  4,640
  5,037
  5,450
  5,878
  6,322
  6,783
  7,261
  7,758
  8,273
Tax expense, $m
  45
  56
  69
  87
  109
  136
  168
  205
  248
  296
  350
  409
  473
  542
  616
  694
  777
  864
  955
  1,050
  1,149
  1,253
  1,360
  1,471
  1,587
  1,707
  1,831
  1,961
  2,095
  2,234
Net income, $m
  122
  150
  187
  235
  295
  367
  454
  555
  670
  800
  945
  1,105
  1,278
  1,465
  1,664
  1,876
  2,100
  2,335
  2,582
  2,840
  3,108
  3,387
  3,677
  3,978
  4,291
  4,615
  4,952
  5,301
  5,663
  6,040

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,746
  2,639
  3,868
  5,508
  7,638
  10,333
  13,667
  17,704
  22,498
  28,095
  34,525
  41,809
  49,957
  58,969
  68,838
  79,550
  91,090
  103,438
  116,574
  130,481
  145,143
  160,548
  176,686
  193,553
  211,151
  229,485
  248,566
  268,409
  289,035
  310,471
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,746
  2,639
  3,868
  5,508
  7,638
  10,333
  13,667
  17,704
  22,498
  28,095
  34,525
  41,809
  49,957
  58,969
  68,838
  79,550
  91,090
  103,438
  116,574
  130,481
  145,143
  160,548
  176,686
  193,553
  211,151
  229,485
  248,566
  268,409
  289,035
  310,471
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
  0.427
Average production assets, $m
  40
  60
  88
  125
  173
  234
  309
  401
  509
  636
  781
  946
  1,131
  1,335
  1,558
  1,800
  2,061
  2,341
  2,638
  2,953
  3,285
  3,633
  3,999
  4,380
  4,779
  5,193
  5,625
  6,074
  6,541
  7,026
Working capital, $m
  212
  320
  469
  668
  926
  1,253
  1,657
  2,147
  2,728
  3,407
  4,187
  5,070
  6,058
  7,151
  8,348
  9,647
  11,046
  12,544
  14,137
  15,823
  17,601
  19,469
  21,426
  23,472
  25,606
  27,829
  30,143
  32,549
  35,051
  37,650
Total debt, $m
  406
  984
  1,779
  2,841
  4,218
  5,962
  8,119
  10,731
  13,833
  17,454
  21,614
  26,327
  31,599
  37,430
  43,815
  50,746
  58,212
  66,201
  74,700
  83,698
  93,184
  103,151
  113,592
  124,506
  135,891
  147,754
  160,099
  172,937
  186,283
  200,152
Total liabilities, $m
  1,130
  1,708
  2,503
  3,564
  4,942
  6,686
  8,842
  11,454
  14,556
  18,177
  22,337
  27,050
  32,322
  38,153
  44,538
  51,469
  58,935
  66,924
  75,423
  84,421
  93,908
  103,874
  114,316
  125,229
  136,615
  148,477
  160,822
  173,661
  187,006
  200,875
Total equity, $m
  616
  932
  1,365
  1,944
  2,696
  3,648
  4,824
  6,249
  7,942
  9,917
  12,187
  14,759
  17,635
  20,816
  24,300
  28,081
  32,155
  36,513
  41,151
  46,060
  51,236
  56,673
  62,370
  68,324
  74,536
  81,008
  87,744
  94,748
  102,030
  109,596
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,746
  2,640
  3,868
  5,508
  7,638
  10,334
  13,666
  17,703
  22,498
  28,094
  34,524
  41,809
  49,957
  58,969
  68,838
  79,550
  91,090
  103,437
  116,574
  130,481
  145,144
  160,547
  176,686
  193,553
  211,151
  229,485
  248,566
  268,409
  289,036
  310,471
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.660
  1.060
  1.300
  1.460
  1.560
  1.630
  1.680
  1.720
  1.740
  1.760
  1.770
  1.780
  1.790
  1.800
  1.800
  1.810
  1.810
  1.810
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.820
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  122
  150
  187
  235
  295
  367
  454
  555
  670
  800
  945
  1,105
  1,278
  1,465
  1,664
  1,876
  2,100
  2,335
  2,582
  2,840
  3,108
  3,387
  3,677
  3,978
  4,291
  4,615
  4,952
  5,301
  5,663
  6,040
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  12
  18
  25
  35
  47
  62
  80
  102
  127
  156
  189
  226
  267
  312
  360
  412
  468
  528
  591
  657
  727
  800
  876
  956
  1,039
  1,125
  1,215
  1,308
  1,405
Funds from operations, $m
  130
  162
  205
  260
  329
  414
  516
  635
  772
  928
  1,102
  1,294
  1,504
  1,732
  1,976
  2,236
  2,512
  2,804
  3,110
  3,430
  3,765
  4,114
  4,477
  4,854
  5,247
  5,654
  6,077
  6,516
  6,971
  7,445
Change in working capital, $m
  76
  108
  149
  199
  258
  327
  404
  490
  581
  679
  780
  883
  988
  1,093
  1,197
  1,299
  1,399
  1,497
  1,593
  1,686
  1,778
  1,868
  1,957
  2,046
  2,134
  2,223
  2,314
  2,406
  2,501
  2,599
Cash from operations, $m
  54
  54
  56
  61
  71
  87
  111
  145
  190
  249
  322
  411
  516
  639
  779
  937
  1,113
  1,306
  1,517
  1,744
  1,987
  2,246
  2,520
  2,809
  3,113
  3,431
  3,763
  4,109
  4,470
  4,845
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -8
  -12
  -18
  -25
  -35
  -47
  -62
  -80
  -102
  -127
  -156
  -189
  -226
  -267
  -312
  -360
  -412
  -468
  -528
  -591
  -657
  -727
  -800
  -876
  -956
  -1,039
  -1,125
  -1,215
  -1,308
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -20
  -28
  -37
  -48
  -61
  -75
  -91
  -109
  -127
  -146
  -165
  -184
  -204
  -223
  -242
  -261
  -279
  -297
  -315
  -332
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -398
  -415
  -432
  -449
  -467
  -485
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -19
  -28
  -40
  -55
  -73
  -96
  -122
  -153
  -189
  -229
  -273
  -321
  -373
  -430
  -490
  -554
  -621
  -691
  -765
  -843
  -923
  -1,006
  -1,092
  -1,182
  -1,274
  -1,371
  -1,471
  -1,574
  -1,682
  -1,793
Free cash flow, $m
  34
  26
  16
  7
  -2
  -8
  -11
  -8
  2
  20
  49
  89
  142
  209
  289
  383
  492
  615
  751
  901
  1,064
  1,240
  1,428
  1,628
  1,838
  2,060
  2,292
  2,535
  2,788
  3,052
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  406
  578
  795
  1,061
  1,378
  1,744
  2,157
  2,612
  3,102
  3,621
  4,160
  4,713
  5,272
  5,831
  6,385
  6,931
  7,466
  7,989
  8,499
  8,998
  9,486
  9,967
  10,441
  10,913
  11,386
  11,862
  12,345
  12,839
  13,345
  13,869
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  100
  165
  246
  344
  457
  584
  723
  870
  1,022
  1,175
  1,324
  1,467
  1,598
  1,717
  1,819
  1,905
  1,973
  2,023
  2,055
  2,070
  2,068
  2,051
  2,020
  1,976
  1,921
  1,857
  1,784
  1,704
  1,618
  1,527
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  506
  743
  1,041
  1,405
  1,835
  2,328
  2,880
  3,482
  4,124
  4,796
  5,484
  6,180
  6,870
  7,548
  8,204
  8,836
  9,439
  10,012
  10,554
  11,068
  11,554
  12,018
  12,461
  12,889
  13,307
  13,719
  14,129
  14,543
  14,963
  15,396
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  540
  769
  1,057
  1,411
  1,833
  2,320
  2,869
  3,474
  4,126
  4,816
  5,534
  6,269
  7,012
  7,756
  8,493
  9,220
  9,931
  10,627
  11,306
  11,969
  12,619
  13,257
  13,889
  14,517
  15,145
  15,779
  16,421
  17,078
  17,752
  18,448
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -222
  -315
  -434
  -579
  -752
  -952
  -1,177
  -1,425
  -1,693
  -1,976
  -2,270
  -2,571
  -2,876
  -3,181
  -3,484
  -3,782
  -4,073
  -4,359
  -4,637
  -4,909
  -5,176
  -5,438
  -5,697
  -5,954
  -6,212
  -6,472
  -6,735
  -7,005
  -7,281
  -7,567
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  319
  454
  624
  833
  1,081
  1,368
  1,692
  2,049
  2,434
  2,841
  3,264
  3,698
  4,136
  4,575
  5,010
  5,438
  5,858
  6,268
  6,668
  7,060
  7,443
  7,820
  8,192
  8,562
  8,933
  9,307
  9,686
  10,073
  10,471
  10,881
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  306
  415
  543
  685
  838
  993
  1,143
  1,281
  1,398
  1,489
  1,550
  1,578
  1,573
  1,536
  1,471
  1,382
  1,275
  1,154
  1,027
  897
  770
  649
  537
  436
  348
  272
  208
  156
  114
  82
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.5
  95.0
  92.5
  90.3
  88.2
  86.3
  84.6
  83.1
  81.8
  80.6
  79.6
  78.6
  77.8
  77.0
  76.3
  75.8
  75.2
  74.8
  74.3
  74.0
  73.6
  73.3
  73.1
  72.8
  72.6
  72.5
  72.3
  72.2
  72.0
  71.9

The Trade Desk, Inc. is a technology company. The Company provides a self-service platform that enables clients to purchase and manage digital advertising campaigns across various advertising formats, including display, video and social, and on a range of devices, including computers, mobile devices and connected television. Its platform enables a media planner or buyer at an advertising agency to purchase digital media programmatically on various media exchanges and sell-side platforms; acquire and use third-party data to optimize and measure digital advertising campaigns; deploy their, or their client's, own first-party data in order to optimize campaign efficacy; link digital campaigns to offline sales results or other business objectives; access other services, such as its data management platform and publisher management platform marketplace, and use its user interface and application programming interfaces (APIs) to build their own technology on top of the Company's platform.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 456.1
Price to Sales 44.9
Price to Book 55.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 121.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 138.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 78.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 15.9%
Total Debt to Equity 15.9%
Interest Coverage 23
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 14.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Return On Equity 19.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 80.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 77.1%
EBITDA Margin 24.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Operating Margin 28.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Net Profit Margin 9.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Effective Tax Rate 54.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

TTD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TTD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $477 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by The Trade Desk, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of The Trade Desk, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TTD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 56.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TTD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of The Trade Desk, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of The Trade Desk, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TTD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TTD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.5% for The Trade Desk, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for The Trade Desk, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TTD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TTD are equal to 5.3%.

Life of production assets of 2.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in The Trade Desk, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TTD is equal to 28.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $394.567 million for The Trade Desk, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44.058 million for The Trade Desk, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of The Trade Desk, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.3 billion.

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