Intrinsic value of Titan International - TWI

Previous Close

$7.00

  Intrinsic Value

$3.02

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-57%

Previous close

$7.00

 
Intrinsic value

$3.02

 
Up/down potential

-57%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TWI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.70
  16.43
  15.29
  14.26
  13.33
  12.50
  11.75
  11.07
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.61
  7.35
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
Revenue, $m
  1,729
  2,013
  2,321
  2,652
  3,005
  3,381
  3,778
  4,196
  4,636
  5,095
  5,576
  6,077
  6,599
  7,142
  7,706
  8,293
  8,903
  9,536
  10,195
  10,880
  11,592
  12,332
  13,103
  13,906
  14,742
  15,614
  16,522
  17,471
  18,460
  19,494
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,627
  1,894
  2,184
  2,495
  2,828
  3,181
  3,555
  3,949
  4,362
  4,795
  5,247
  5,718
  6,209
  6,720
  7,252
  7,804
  8,378
  8,974
  9,594
  10,238
  10,908
  11,605
  12,330
  13,085
  13,872
  14,692
  15,548
  16,440
  17,371
  18,343
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  102
  104
  107
  109
  111
  114
  116
  119
  122
  124
  127
  130
  133
  136
  139
  142
  145
  148
  151
  155
  158
  161
  165
  169
  172
  176
  180
  184
  188
  192
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,729
  1,998
  2,291
  2,604
  2,939
  3,295
  3,671
  4,068
  4,484
  4,919
  5,374
  5,848
  6,342
  6,856
  7,391
  7,946
  8,523
  9,122
  9,745
  10,393
  11,066
  11,766
  12,495
  13,254
  14,044
  14,868
  15,728
  16,624
  17,559
  18,535
Operating income, $m
  0
  14
  30
  47
  66
  86
  106
  129
  152
  176
  202
  229
  257
  286
  316
  348
  380
  415
  450
  487
  526
  566
  608
  652
  697
  745
  795
  847
  901
  958
EBITDA, $m
  69
  95
  123
  153
  186
  221
  258
  296
  337
  380
  425
  472
  521
  571
  624
  679
  737
  796
  858
  923
  990
  1,060
  1,132
  1,208
  1,287
  1,370
  1,456
  1,546
  1,640
  1,738
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  28
  39
  51
  64
  77
  92
  108
  124
  142
  160
  179
  199
  220
  241
  264
  287
  312
  337
  363
  391
  419
  449
  480
  512
  545
  580
  616
  654
  693
  734
Earnings before tax, $m
  -29
  -25
  -21
  -16
  -12
  -7
  -1
  4
  10
  16
  23
  30
  37
  44
  52
  60
  69
  78
  87
  97
  107
  117
  129
  140
  153
  165
  179
  193
  208
  224
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
Net income, $m
  -29
  -25
  -21
  -16
  -12
  -7
  -1
  3
  7
  12
  17
  22
  27
  32
  38
  44
  50
  57
  63
  70
  78
  86
  94
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  152
  163

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,518
  1,767
  2,037
  2,328
  2,638
  2,968
  3,317
  3,684
  4,070
  4,474
  4,895
  5,335
  5,793
  6,270
  6,766
  7,281
  7,816
  8,373
  8,951
  9,552
  10,177
  10,827
  11,504
  12,209
  12,943
  13,708
  14,506
  15,338
  16,207
  17,115
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,518
  1,767
  2,037
  2,328
  2,638
  2,968
  3,317
  3,684
  4,070
  4,474
  4,895
  5,335
  5,793
  6,270
  6,766
  7,281
  7,816
  8,373
  8,951
  9,552
  10,177
  10,827
  11,504
  12,209
  12,943
  13,708
  14,506
  15,338
  16,207
  17,115
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
Average production assets, $m
  505
  588
  678
  774
  877
  987
  1,103
  1,225
  1,354
  1,488
  1,628
  1,774
  1,927
  2,085
  2,250
  2,422
  2,600
  2,785
  2,977
  3,177
  3,385
  3,601
  3,826
  4,061
  4,305
  4,559
  4,825
  5,101
  5,390
  5,692
Working capital, $m
  365
  425
  490
  559
  634
  713
  797
  885
  978
  1,075
  1,177
  1,282
  1,392
  1,507
  1,626
  1,750
  1,878
  2,012
  2,151
  2,296
  2,446
  2,602
  2,765
  2,934
  3,111
  3,294
  3,486
  3,686
  3,895
  4,113
Total debt, $m
  622
  809
  1,012
  1,230
  1,463
  1,711
  1,973
  2,248
  2,538
  2,841
  3,158
  3,488
  3,832
  4,190
  4,563
  4,950
  5,352
  5,770
  6,204
  6,655
  7,125
  7,613
  8,121
  8,651
  9,202
  9,776
  10,376
  11,001
  11,653
  12,335
Total liabilities, $m
  1,140
  1,327
  1,530
  1,748
  1,981
  2,229
  2,491
  2,767
  3,056
  3,360
  3,676
  4,007
  4,351
  4,709
  5,081
  5,468
  5,870
  6,288
  6,722
  7,174
  7,643
  8,131
  8,640
  9,169
  9,720
  10,295
  10,894
  11,519
  12,172
  12,853
Total equity, $m
  378
  440
  507
  580
  657
  739
  826
  917
  1,013
  1,114
  1,219
  1,328
  1,443
  1,561
  1,685
  1,813
  1,946
  2,085
  2,229
  2,378
  2,534
  2,696
  2,865
  3,040
  3,223
  3,413
  3,612
  3,819
  4,036
  4,262
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,518
  1,767
  2,037
  2,328
  2,638
  2,968
  3,317
  3,684
  4,069
  4,474
  4,895
  5,335
  5,794
  6,270
  6,766
  7,281
  7,816
  8,373
  8,951
  9,552
  10,177
  10,827
  11,505
  12,209
  12,943
  13,708
  14,506
  15,338
  16,208
  17,115
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.640
  1.840
  1.990
  2.120
  2.230
  2.310
  2.390
  2.450
  2.500
  2.550
  2.590
  2.630
  2.660
  2.680
  2.710
  2.730
  2.750
  2.770
  2.780
  2.800
  2.810
  2.820
  2.840
  2.850
  2.860
  2.860
  2.870
  2.880
  2.890
  2.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -29
  -25
  -21
  -16
  -12
  -7
  -1
  3
  7
  12
  17
  22
  27
  32
  38
  44
  50
  57
  63
  70
  78
  86
  94
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  152
  163
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  69
  81
  93
  106
  120
  135
  151
  168
  185
  204
  223
  243
  264
  286
  308
  332
  356
  381
  408
  435
  464
  493
  524
  556
  590
  625
  661
  699
  738
  780
Funds from operations, $m
  41
  56
  72
  90
  109
  129
  150
  171
  193
  216
  240
  265
  291
  318
  346
  376
  406
  438
  471
  506
  542
  579
  618
  659
  701
  745
  792
  840
  890
  943
Change in working capital, $m
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  163
  169
  176
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
Cash from operations, $m
  -14
  -4
  7
  20
  34
  49
  66
  83
  100
  119
  138
  159
  181
  203
  227
  252
  278
  304
  332
  361
  391
  423
  455
  489
  525
  561
  600
  640
  682
  725
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -59
  -69
  -81
  -93
  -106
  -120
  -135
  -151
  -168
  -185
  -204
  -223
  -243
  -264
  -286
  -308
  -332
  -356
  -381
  -408
  -435
  -464
  -493
  -524
  -556
  -590
  -625
  -661
  -699
  -738
New CAPEX, $m
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -254
  -265
  -277
  -289
  -302
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -135
  -152
  -171
  -190
  -209
  -230
  -251
  -273
  -296
  -319
  -344
  -369
  -395
  -423
  -451
  -479
  -510
  -541
  -573
  -608
  -643
  -680
  -718
  -758
  -800
  -844
  -890
  -938
  -988
  -1,040
Free cash flow, $m
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -175
  -181
  -185
  -191
  -196
  -201
  -206
  -210
  -215
  -219
  -223
  -228
  -232
  -237
  -242
  -247
  -252
  -257
  -263
  -269
  -276
  -283
  -290
  -298
  -306
  -315
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  171
  187
  203
  218
  233
  248
  262
  276
  290
  303
  317
  330
  344
  358
  372
  387
  402
  418
  434
  451
  469
  488
  508
  529
  551
  575
  599
  625
  653
  681
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  86
  87
  88
  89
  89
  89
  88
  88
  89
  89
  88
  88
  87
  86
  85
  84
  83
  82
  81
  79
  78
  76
  75
  73
  71
  70
  68
  66
  64
  63
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  257
  274
  291
  307
  322
  337
  350
  364
  379
  392
  405
  418
  431
  444
  457
  471
  485
  500
  515
  530
  547
  564
  583
  602
  622
  645
  667
  691
  717
  744
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  108
  118
  128
  137
  147
  156
  165
  174
  182
  191
  199
  208
  217
  225
  234
  244
  253
  263
  273
  284
  295
  307
  320
  333
  347
  362
  377
  393
  411
  429
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -86
  -87
  -88
  -89
  -89
  -89
  -88
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -226
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  22
  31
  40
  49
  58
  67
  77
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  115
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  151
  158
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
Discount rate, %
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  20
  26
  30
  33
  35
  36
  36
  33
  30
  26
  23
  19
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  83.0
  70.6
  61.2
  54.0
  48.3
  43.8
  40.1
  37.1
  34.5
  32.4
  30.5
  28.9
  27.5
  26.3
  25.3
  24.3
  23.5
  22.8
  22.1
  21.5
  21.0
  20.5
  20.1
  19.7
  19.4
  19.1
  18.8
  18.5
  18.3
  18.1

Titan International, Inc. is a wheel, tire, and undercarriage industrial manufacturer and supplier. The Company's segments are agricultural, earthmoving/construction, and consumer. The Company produces a range of products to meet the specifications of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and aftermarket customers in the agricultural, earthmoving/construction, and consumer markets. Its agricultural products include rims, wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems and components manufactured for use on various agricultural equipment. Its earthmoving/construction products include rims, wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems and components for various types of off-the-road (OTR) earthmoving, mining, military, construction, and forestry equipment. The Company's consumer products include, but are not limited to, bias truck tires in Latin America and light truck tires in Russia, as well as products for all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), turf, and golf cart applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Titan International (TWI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -11.2
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 189.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 137.7%
Total Debt to Equity 170.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Return On Total Capital -4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Return On Equity -10.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
EBITDA Margin 4.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Operating Margin -1.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.8%
Net Profit Margin -2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.1%
Effective Tax Rate -9.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.6%
Payout Ratio -2.9%

TWI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TWI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1468.922 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Titan International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Titan International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TWI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for TWI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Titan International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Titan International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TWI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $100 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TWI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.3% for Titan International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Titan International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TWI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TWI are equal to 29.2%.

Life of production assets of 7.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Titan International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TWI is equal to 21.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $320.929 million for Titan International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.898 million for Titan International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Titan International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Titan International: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:13AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Titan International Stock Just Dropped 30%   [Aug-03-18 02:17PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Titan International: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ A Preview Of Titan International's Earnings   [Aug-02-18 03:14PM  Benzinga]
▶ How Financially Strong Is Titan International Inc (NYSE:TWI)?   [Jun-27-18 12:51PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 4 Stocks to Buy As China Offers to Raise U.S. Imports   [Jun-07-18 01:03PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ The 3 Stocks on the MFM Team's Radar This Week   [May-09-18 08:59PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Titan International, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [May-04-18 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Titan International: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Titan ACT wheel now available in expanded size range   [Mar-27-18 06:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Titan International, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-23-18 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Titan International reports 4Q loss   [06:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ Titan International, Inc. Prices Senior Secured Notes   [Nov-09-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ The 3 Stocks on the MFM Team's Radar This Week   [Nov-06-17 07:27PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Titan International reports 3Q loss   [06:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Titan International Inc's Recovery Hits a Snag   [Aug-03-17 02:34PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Titan International reports 2Q loss   [06:20AM  Associated Press]

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