Intrinsic value of TherapeuticsMD, Inc. - TXMD

Previous Close

$2.44

  Intrinsic Value

$0.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

Previous close

$2.44

 
Intrinsic value

$0.08

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TXMD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.40
  21.56
  19.90
  18.41
  17.07
  15.87
  14.78
  13.80
  12.92
  12.13
  11.42
  10.77
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
Revenue, $m
  20
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  53
  60
  68
  76
  85
  94
  104
  114
  125
  135
  147
  159
  171
  184
  197
  211
  225
  240
  256
  272
  289
  306
  325
  344
Variable operating expenses, $m
  110
  134
  160
  189
  221
  255
  293
  333
  376
  421
  466
  517
  569
  624
  682
  742
  804
  869
  936
  1,007
  1,079
  1,155
  1,234
  1,316
  1,401
  1,489
  1,581
  1,677
  1,777
  1,882
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  110
  134
  160
  189
  221
  255
  293
  333
  376
  421
  466
  517
  569
  624
  682
  742
  804
  869
  936
  1,007
  1,079
  1,155
  1,234
  1,316
  1,401
  1,489
  1,581
  1,677
  1,777
  1,882
Operating income, $m
  -91
  -110
  -131
  -155
  -181
  -209
  -240
  -273
  -307
  -345
  -381
  -422
  -465
  -510
  -557
  -606
  -657
  -710
  -765
  -823
  -882
  -944
  -1,008
  -1,075
  -1,145
  -1,217
  -1,293
  -1,371
  -1,453
  -1,538
EBITDA, $m
  -88
  -107
  -128
  -152
  -178
  -206
  -237
  -269
  -304
  -341
  -380
  -421
  -464
  -509
  -555
  -604
  -655
  -708
  -763
  -820
  -879
  -941
  -1,005
  -1,072
  -1,141
  -1,213
  -1,288
  -1,366
  -1,448
  -1,533
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  9
  8
  10
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  34
  39
  45
  50
  56
  63
  69
  76
  83
  91
  98
  106
  115
  124
  133
  142
  152
  162
  172
  183
  195
  207
Earnings before tax, $m
  -100
  -117
  -142
  -168
  -198
  -230
  -265
  -302
  -342
  -384
  -426
  -473
  -522
  -573
  -627
  -682
  -741
  -801
  -864
  -929
  -997
  -1,068
  -1,141
  -1,217
  -1,297
  -1,379
  -1,465
  -1,554
  -1,648
  -1,745
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -100
  -117
  -142
  -168
  -198
  -230
  -265
  -302
  -342
  -384
  -426
  -473
  -522
  -573
  -627
  -682
  -741
  -801
  -864
  -929
  -997
  -1,068
  -1,141
  -1,217
  -1,297
  -1,379
  -1,465
  -1,554
  -1,648
  -1,745

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  113
  137
  164
  195
  228
  264
  303
  345
  390
  437
  487
  539
  594
  652
  712
  774
  839
  907
  977
  1,051
  1,127
  1,206
  1,288
  1,373
  1,462
  1,554
  1,651
  1,751
  1,855
  1,964
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  113
  137
  164
  195
  228
  264
  303
  345
  390
  437
  487
  539
  594
  652
  712
  774
  839
  907
  977
  1,051
  1,127
  1,206
  1,288
  1,373
  1,462
  1,554
  1,651
  1,751
  1,855
  1,964
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.177
  0.175
  0.177
  0.174
  0.175
  0.174
  0.175
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.175
  0.174
  0.175
  0.175
  0.176
  0.174
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
Average production assets, $m
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  61
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
  96
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  139
  147
  156
Working capital, $m
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -34
  -40
  -46
  -53
  -60
  -68
  -76
  -85
  -94
  -103
  -113
  -124
  -135
  -146
  -158
  -170
  -183
  -196
  -210
  -224
  -239
  -255
  -271
  -287
  -305
  -323
  -342
Total debt, $m
  60
  82
  107
  134
  164
  197
  232
  269
  310
  352
  397
  444
  494
  545
  599
  656
  714
  775
  839
  904
  973
  1,044
  1,118
  1,195
  1,275
  1,358
  1,444
  1,535
  1,628
  1,726
Total liabilities, $m
  102
  123
  148
  175
  205
  238
  273
  311
  351
  393
  438
  485
  535
  586
  640
  697
  755
  816
  880
  945
  1,014
  1,085
  1,159
  1,236
  1,316
  1,399
  1,485
  1,576
  1,670
  1,768
Total equity, $m
  11
  14
  16
  19
  23
  26
  30
  35
  39
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  186
  196
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  113
  137
  164
  194
  228
  264
  303
  346
  390
  437
  487
  539
  594
  651
  711
  774
  839
  907
  978
  1,050
  1,127
  1,206
  1,288
  1,373
  1,462
  1,554
  1,650
  1,751
  1,856
  1,964
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.360
  6.000
  6.500
  6.890
  7.200
  7.440
  7.650
  7.810
  7.950
  8.060
  8.160
  8.240
  8.310
  8.370
  8.420
  8.470
  8.510
  8.550
  8.580
  8.610
  8.640
  8.660
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.740
  8.750
  8.770
  8.780
  8.790
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -100
  -117
  -142
  -168
  -198
  -230
  -265
  -302
  -342
  -384
  -426
  -473
  -522
  -573
  -627
  -682
  -741
  -801
  -864
  -929
  -997
  -1,068
  -1,141
  -1,217
  -1,297
  -1,379
  -1,465
  -1,554
  -1,648
  -1,745
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Funds from operations, $m
  -97
  -115
  -139
  -166
  -195
  -227
  -262
  -299
  -338
  -380
  -425
  -471
  -520
  -571
  -625
  -680
  -738
  -799
  -861
  -926
  -994
  -1,064
  -1,138
  -1,214
  -1,293
  -1,375
  -1,461
  -1,550
  -1,643
  -1,740
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from operations, $m
  -94
  -110
  -134
  -160
  -189
  -221
  -255
  -291
  -331
  -372
  -416
  -462
  -511
  -561
  -614
  -669
  -727
  -787
  -849
  -914
  -981
  -1,051
  -1,123
  -1,199
  -1,277
  -1,359
  -1,444
  -1,532
  -1,625
  -1,721
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Free cash flow, $m
  -96
  -113
  -137
  -163
  -192
  -224
  -259
  -296
  -335
  -377
  -421
  -468
  -516
  -567
  -621
  -676
  -734
  -794
  -857
  -922
  -990
  -1,060
  -1,133
  -1,209
  -1,288
  -1,370
  -1,456
  -1,545
  -1,637
  -1,734
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -13
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  134
  120
  144
  172
  201
  234
  269
  306
  346
  389
  431
  478
  527
  579
  633
  689
  747
  808
  871
  937
  1,005
  1,076
  1,149
  1,226
  1,305
  1,388
  1,475
  1,564
  1,658
  1,756
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  121
  142
  169
  199
  231
  267
  304
  344
  386
  432
  476
  525
  576
  631
  687
  745
  806
  869
  934
  1,003
  1,073
  1,147
  1,223
  1,303
  1,385
  1,471
  1,562
  1,654
  1,752
  1,854
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  25
  29
  32
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  119
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -134
  -120
  -144
  -172
  -201
  -234
  -269
  -306
  -346
  -389
  -431
  -478
  -527
  -579
  -633
  -689
  -747
  -808
  -871
  -937
  -1,005
  -1,076
  -1,149
  -1,226
  -1,305
  -1,388
  -1,475
  -1,564
  -1,658
  -1,756
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  121
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  12
  -91
  -112
  -136
  -162
  -192
  -223
  -258
  -295
  -334
  -376
  -420
  -467
  -516
  -567
  -620
  -676
  -733
  -794
  -856
  -921
  -989
  -1,059
  -1,132
  -1,208
  -1,287
  -1,369
  -1,455
  -1,544
  -1,636
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  12
  -83
  -97
  -112
  -126
  -139
  -151
  -161
  -169
  -175
  -179
  -179
  -178
  -173
  -166
  -158
  -147
  -135
  -122
  -109
  -95
  -82
  -69
  -58
  -47
  -38
  -29
  -23
  -17
  -12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  18.1
  6.6
  2.4
  0.9
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

TherapeuticsMD, Inc. is a women's healthcare company engaged in creating and commercializing products for women. The Company is focused on pursuing regulatory approvals and pre-commercialization activities necessary for commercialization of its hormone therapy pharmaceutical products. Its drug candidates used in clinical trials are designed to alleviate symptoms of and reduce health risks resulting from menopause-related hormone deficiencies, including hot flashes, osteoporosis and vaginal discomfort. With its SYMBODA technology, it is developing hormone therapy pharmaceutical products to enable delivery of bio-identical hormones through dosage forms and administration routes. Its product line includes vitaTrue, vitaPearl, vitaMedMD Plus, vitaMedMD One Prenatal Multivitamin, vitaMedMD Plus Rx Prenatal Multivitamin, vitaMedMD One Rx Prenatal Multivitamin, vitaMedMD Iron 21/7, vitaMedMD Vitamin D3 50,000 IU, BocaGreenMD Prena1 Pearl and BocaGreenMD Prena1 Chew.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

TXMD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TXMD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $16 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TherapeuticsMD, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of TherapeuticsMD, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TXMD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TXMD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TherapeuticsMD, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TherapeuticsMD, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TXMD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 562.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TXMD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 12.7% for TherapeuticsMD, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TherapeuticsMD, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TXMD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TXMD are equal to 45.3%.

Life of production assets of 47.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TherapeuticsMD, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TXMD is equal to -99.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $97.524121 million for TherapeuticsMD, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 241.758 million for TherapeuticsMD, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TherapeuticsMD, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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