Intrinsic value of Tyler Technologies - TYL

Previous Close

$179.58

  Intrinsic Value

$64.88

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-64%

  Value-price divergence*

-52%

Previous close

$179.58

 
Intrinsic value

$64.88

 
Up/down potential

-64%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-52%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TYL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  27.92
  10.60
  10.04
  9.54
  9.08
  8.67
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
Revenue, $m
  756
  836
  920
  1,008
  1,099
  1,195
  1,294
  1,397
  1,504
  1,616
  1,732
  1,852
  1,977
  2,107
  2,243
  2,384
  2,530
  2,683
  2,842
  3,008
  3,182
  3,362
  3,551
  3,748
  3,954
  4,170
  4,395
  4,630
  4,877
  5,135
  5,406
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  676
  738
  802
  869
  938
  1,011
  1,086
  1,165
  1,246
  1,331
  1,354
  1,445
  1,541
  1,640
  1,743
  1,850
  1,961
  2,078
  2,199
  2,326
  2,458
  2,596
  2,740
  2,891
  3,048
  3,213
  3,385
  3,565
  3,754
  3,952
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  625
  676
  738
  802
  869
  938
  1,011
  1,086
  1,165
  1,246
  1,331
  1,354
  1,445
  1,541
  1,640
  1,743
  1,850
  1,961
  2,078
  2,199
  2,326
  2,458
  2,596
  2,740
  2,891
  3,048
  3,213
  3,385
  3,565
  3,754
  3,952
Operating income, $m
  131
  160
  182
  206
  231
  256
  283
  311
  340
  370
  401
  498
  532
  567
  603
  641
  681
  722
  765
  809
  856
  904
  955
  1,008
  1,064
  1,122
  1,182
  1,246
  1,312
  1,381
  1,454
EBITDA, $m
  181
  246
  270
  296
  323
  351
  380
  411
  442
  475
  509
  544
  581
  619
  659
  701
  744
  789
  835
  884
  935
  988
  1,044
  1,102
  1,162
  1,225
  1,292
  1,361
  1,433
  1,509
  1,589
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  90
Earnings before tax, $m
  129
  160
  181
  202
  225
  249
  274
  300
  326
  354
  383
  478
  509
  542
  575
  610
  647
  685
  725
  766
  809
  855
  902
  951
  1,002
  1,056
  1,112
  1,171
  1,232
  1,297
  1,364
Tax expense, $m
  19
  43
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  81
  88
  96
  103
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  219
  231
  243
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  333
  350
  368
Net income, $m
  110
  116
  132
  148
  164
  182
  200
  219
  238
  258
  280
  349
  372
  395
  420
  446
  472
  500
  529
  559
  591
  624
  658
  694
  732
  771
  812
  855
  900
  947
  996

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,358
  1,439
  1,584
  1,735
  1,892
  2,056
  2,227
  2,405
  2,589
  2,781
  2,981
  3,188
  3,403
  3,627
  3,860
  4,103
  4,355
  4,618
  4,892
  5,178
  5,476
  5,787
  6,112
  6,451
  6,806
  7,177
  7,564
  7,970
  8,394
  8,839
  9,304
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,302
  1,439
  1,584
  1,735
  1,892
  2,056
  2,227
  2,405
  2,589
  2,781
  2,981
  3,188
  3,403
  3,627
  3,860
  4,103
  4,355
  4,618
  4,892
  5,178
  5,476
  5,787
  6,112
  6,451
  6,806
  7,177
  7,564
  7,970
  8,394
  8,839
  9,304
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
Average production assets, $m
  394
  436
  479
  525
  573
  622
  674
  728
  784
  842
  902
  965
  1,030
  1,098
  1,169
  1,242
  1,318
  1,398
  1,481
  1,567
  1,658
  1,752
  1,850
  1,953
  2,060
  2,172
  2,290
  2,412
  2,541
  2,675
  2,816
Working capital, $m
  -79
  -150
  -165
  -180
  -197
  -214
  -232
  -250
  -269
  -289
  -310
  -332
  -354
  -377
  -401
  -427
  -453
  -480
  -509
  -539
  -570
  -602
  -636
  -671
  -708
  -746
  -787
  -829
  -873
  -919
  -968
Total debt, $m
  10
  56
  105
  156
  209
  265
  323
  383
  446
  511
  578
  649
  722
  798
  877
  959
  1,044
  1,134
  1,226
  1,323
  1,424
  1,530
  1,640
  1,755
  1,875
  2,001
  2,132
  2,270
  2,414
  2,564
  2,722
Total liabilities, $m
  442
  488
  537
  588
  641
  697
  755
  815
  878
  943
  1,010
  1,081
  1,154
  1,230
  1,309
  1,391
  1,476
  1,566
  1,658
  1,755
  1,856
  1,962
  2,072
  2,187
  2,307
  2,433
  2,564
  2,702
  2,846
  2,996
  3,154
Total equity, $m
  916
  951
  1,047
  1,147
  1,251
  1,359
  1,472
  1,590
  1,712
  1,838
  1,970
  2,107
  2,250
  2,398
  2,552
  2,712
  2,879
  3,053
  3,234
  3,423
  3,620
  3,825
  4,040
  4,264
  4,499
  4,744
  5,000
  5,268
  5,549
  5,842
  6,150
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,358
  1,439
  1,584
  1,735
  1,892
  2,056
  2,227
  2,405
  2,590
  2,781
  2,980
  3,188
  3,404
  3,628
  3,861
  4,103
  4,355
  4,619
  4,892
  5,178
  5,476
  5,787
  6,112
  6,451
  6,806
  7,177
  7,564
  7,970
  8,395
  8,838
  9,304
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.011
  0.060
  0.100
  0.140
  0.170
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  110
  116
  132
  148
  164
  182
  200
  219
  238
  258
  280
  349
  372
  395
  420
  446
  472
  500
  529
  559
  591
  624
  658
  694
  732
  771
  812
  855
  900
  947
  996
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  50
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  100
  103
  105
  108
  46
  49
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  93
  99
  104
  110
  115
  122
  128
  135
Funds from operations, $m
  218
  202
  220
  238
  257
  277
  297
  318
  341
  364
  388
  395
  421
  448
  476
  505
  535
  567
  600
  634
  670
  708
  747
  788
  830
  875
  921
  970
  1,021
  1,075
  1,131
Change in working capital, $m
  26
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
Cash from operations, $m
  192
  217
  235
  254
  273
  294
  315
  337
  360
  384
  408
  417
  443
  471
  500
  530
  562
  594
  629
  664
  701
  740
  780
  823
  867
  913
  962
  1,012
  1,065
  1,121
  1,179
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -122
  -128
New CAPEX, $m
  -38
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -141
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -51
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -200
  -211
  -221
  -233
  -243
  -256
  -269
Free cash flow, $m
  141
  156
  170
  185
  200
  217
  233
  251
  269
  288
  308
  311
  332
  354
  377
  401
  426
  452
  479
  507
  536
  567
  598
  632
  666
  703
  740
  780
  821
  865
  910
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -56
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -138
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  202
  219
  236
  254
  272
  291
  311
  332
  353
  375
  381
  405
  430
  456
  483
  511
  541
  572
  604
  637
  672
  708
  747
  786
  828
  872
  918
  965
  1,015
  1,068
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -57
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -234
  -245
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -294
  -308
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  166
  124
  136
  150
  164
  178
  194
  210
  226
  244
  244
  263
  282
  302
  323
  345
  367
  390
  415
  440
  466
  494
  522
  552
  583
  616
  649
  685
  722
  760
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  159
  113
  119
  123
  127
  129
  131
  131
  130
  128
  116
  112
  107
  101
  95
  88
  80
  72
  64
  56
  48
  41
  34
  28
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Tyler Technologies, Inc. is a provider of information management solutions and services for the public sector, with a focus on local governments. The Company operates through two segments: Enterprise Software (ES) segment and The Appraisal and Tax (A&T) segment. ES segment provides municipal and county governments and schools with software systems and services for information technology and automation needs that includes back-office functions, such as financial management, courts and justice processes, public safety, planning regulatory and maintenance, and land and vital records management. A&T segment provides systems and software that automate the appraisal and assessment of real and personal property, as well as property appraisal outsourcing services for local governments and taxing authorities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tyler Technologies (TYL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 60
Price to Sales 8.7
Price to Book 7.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 34.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 42.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 27.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 192.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 1.1%
Total Debt to Equity 1.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Return On Total Capital 11.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Return On Equity 12.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47%
EBITDA Margin 23.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
Operating Margin 17.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Net Profit Margin 14.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Effective Tax Rate 14.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

TYL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TYL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $756 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tyler Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Tyler Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TYL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TYL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tyler Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tyler Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TYL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TYL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Tyler Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tyler Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TYL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TYL are equal to 52.1%.

Life of production assets of 20.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tyler Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TYL is equal to -17.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $916 million for Tyler Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.352 million for Tyler Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tyler Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Santa Fe Selects Multiple Tyler Technologies Solutions   [Aug-08-17 09:17AM  Business Wire]
▶ Tyler Technologies Acquires Digital Health Department, Inc.   [Aug-02-17 11:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Tyler Technologies Reports Earnings for Second Quarter 2017   [Jul-26-17 04:17PM  Business Wire]
▶ A Deep Analysis of 6 Five-Star Companies   [Jun-02-17 06:11PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ [$$] Dispute Resolution Startup Modria Acquired by Tyler Technologies   [May-30-17 04:08PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Tyler Technologies Acquires Modria   [01:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Tyler Technologies tops 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-26-17 06:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ Weekly CFO Sells Highlights   [Feb-23-17 03:09PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Maines Largest City Selects Tyler Technologies Solutions   [Jan-24-17 09:17AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of TYL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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