Intrinsic value of Under Armour Cl C - UA

Previous Close

$12.85

  Intrinsic Value

$9.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-24%

Previous close

$12.85

 
Intrinsic value

$9.79

 
Up/down potential

-24%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of UA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.75
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,825
  4,922
  5,035
  5,164
  5,309
  5,470
  5,647
  5,839
  6,047
  6,272
  6,512
  6,770
  7,045
  7,337
  7,648
  7,978
  8,328
  8,698
  9,089
  9,503
  9,939
  10,400
  10,886
  11,398
  11,938
  12,506
  13,104
  13,734
  14,397
  15,094
  15,827
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,413
  4,514
  4,628
  4,757
  4,899
  5,056
  5,226
  5,410
  5,609
  5,822
  5,993
  6,237
  6,496
  6,771
  7,063
  7,373
  7,700
  8,047
  8,413
  8,799
  9,207
  9,637
  10,091
  10,568
  11,072
  11,601
  12,159
  12,746
  13,363
  14,012
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,408
  4,413
  4,514
  4,628
  4,757
  4,899
  5,056
  5,226
  5,410
  5,609
  5,822
  5,993
  6,237
  6,496
  6,771
  7,063
  7,373
  7,700
  8,047
  8,413
  8,799
  9,207
  9,637
  10,091
  10,568
  11,072
  11,601
  12,159
  12,746
  13,363
  14,012
Operating income, $m
  417
  508
  521
  536
  553
  571
  591
  613
  637
  663
  690
  776
  808
  841
  877
  915
  955
  998
  1,042
  1,090
  1,140
  1,193
  1,248
  1,307
  1,369
  1,434
  1,503
  1,575
  1,651
  1,731
  1,815
EBITDA, $m
  562
  648
  663
  680
  699
  720
  743
  769
  796
  825
  857
  891
  927
  966
  1,007
  1,050
  1,096
  1,145
  1,196
  1,251
  1,308
  1,369
  1,433
  1,500
  1,571
  1,646
  1,725
  1,808
  1,895
  1,987
  2,083
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
Earnings before tax, $m
  388
  480
  492
  506
  521
  538
  556
  576
  598
  621
  646
  729
  758
  788
  821
  855
  891
  930
  970
  1,013
  1,059
  1,106
  1,157
  1,210
  1,266
  1,325
  1,387
  1,452
  1,521
  1,593
  1,670
Tax expense, $m
  131
  130
  133
  137
  141
  145
  150
  156
  161
  168
  174
  197
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
  286
  299
  312
  327
  342
  358
  374
  392
  411
  430
  451
Net income, $m
  257
  351
  359
  369
  380
  393
  406
  421
  436
  454
  472
  532
  553
  576
  599
  624
  651
  679
  708
  740
  773
  808
  844
  883
  924
  967
  1,013
  1,060
  1,110
  1,163
  1,219

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  250
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,644
  3,461
  3,541
  3,632
  3,734
  3,847
  3,971
  4,106
  4,253
  4,410
  4,580
  4,761
  4,954
  5,160
  5,378
  5,610
  5,856
  6,117
  6,392
  6,683
  6,990
  7,314
  7,655
  8,015
  8,395
  8,795
  9,215
  9,658
  10,124
  10,615
  11,130
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,394
  3,461
  3,541
  3,632
  3,734
  3,847
  3,971
  4,106
  4,253
  4,410
  4,580
  4,761
  4,954
  5,160
  5,378
  5,610
  5,856
  6,117
  6,392
  6,683
  6,990
  7,314
  7,655
  8,015
  8,395
  8,795
  9,215
  9,658
  10,124
  10,615
  11,130
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
  1.422
Average production assets, $m
  742
  758
  775
  795
  818
  842
  870
  899
  931
  966
  1,003
  1,043
  1,085
  1,130
  1,178
  1,229
  1,282
  1,339
  1,400
  1,463
  1,531
  1,602
  1,676
  1,755
  1,838
  1,926
  2,018
  2,115
  2,217
  2,324
  2,437
Working capital, $m
  1,279
  1,078
  1,103
  1,131
  1,163
  1,198
  1,237
  1,279
  1,324
  1,374
  1,426
  1,483
  1,543
  1,607
  1,675
  1,747
  1,824
  1,905
  1,991
  2,081
  2,177
  2,278
  2,384
  2,496
  2,614
  2,739
  2,870
  3,008
  3,153
  3,306
  3,466
Total debt, $m
  817
  820
  857
  900
  948
  1,001
  1,059
  1,122
  1,190
  1,264
  1,343
  1,427
  1,518
  1,614
  1,716
  1,824
  1,939
  2,060
  2,189
  2,325
  2,468
  2,619
  2,779
  2,947
  3,124
  3,311
  3,508
  3,714
  3,932
  4,161
  4,402
Total liabilities, $m
  1,613
  1,616
  1,653
  1,696
  1,744
  1,797
  1,855
  1,918
  1,986
  2,060
  2,139
  2,223
  2,314
  2,410
  2,512
  2,620
  2,735
  2,856
  2,985
  3,121
  3,264
  3,415
  3,575
  3,743
  3,920
  4,107
  4,304
  4,510
  4,728
  4,957
  5,198
Total equity, $m
  2,031
  1,845
  1,887
  1,936
  1,990
  2,050
  2,117
  2,189
  2,267
  2,351
  2,441
  2,538
  2,641
  2,750
  2,867
  2,990
  3,121
  3,260
  3,407
  3,562
  3,725
  3,898
  4,080
  4,272
  4,474
  4,687
  4,912
  5,148
  5,396
  5,658
  5,932
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,644
  3,461
  3,540
  3,632
  3,734
  3,847
  3,972
  4,107
  4,253
  4,411
  4,580
  4,761
  4,955
  5,160
  5,379
  5,610
  5,856
  6,116
  6,392
  6,683
  6,989
  7,313
  7,655
  8,015
  8,394
  8,794
  9,216
  9,658
  10,124
  10,615
  11,130
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.402
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.525
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  257
  351
  359
  369
  380
  393
  406
  421
  436
  454
  472
  532
  553
  576
  599
  624
  651
  679
  708
  740
  773
  808
  844
  883
  924
  967
  1,013
  1,060
  1,110
  1,163
  1,219
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  145
  140
  142
  144
  146
  149
  152
  155
  159
  163
  167
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  232
  244
  255
  268
Funds from operations, $m
  119
  490
  501
  513
  527
  542
  558
  576
  595
  616
  638
  647
  673
  700
  729
  759
  792
  826
  862
  900
  941
  984
  1,029
  1,076
  1,126
  1,179
  1,234
  1,293
  1,354
  1,419
  1,487
Change in working capital, $m
  -185
  21
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
Cash from operations, $m
  304
  469
  476
  485
  495
  506
  519
  534
  550
  567
  586
  591
  612
  636
  660
  687
  715
  745
  776
  810
  845
  883
  922
  964
  1,008
  1,054
  1,103
  1,155
  1,209
  1,266
  1,326
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -244
  -255
New CAPEX, $m
  -388
  -16
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -381
  -97
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -334
  -351
  -368
Free cash flow, $m
  -77
  371
  375
  380
  385
  392
  400
  409
  419
  430
  442
  441
  455
  471
  488
  507
  526
  547
  569
  592
  617
  644
  671
  701
  732
  765
  799
  836
  874
  915
  958
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  157
  30
  37
  42
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  160
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  209
  30
  37
  42
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  160
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  124
  402
  413
  422
  433
  445
  458
  472
  487
  504
  522
  525
  546
  567
  590
  615
  641
  668
  697
  728
  761
  795
  831
  869
  909
  951
  996
  1,043
  1,092
  1,144
  1,199
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -363
  -37
  -42
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -66
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -261
  -275
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  223
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  588
  370
  374
  378
  384
  391
  400
  409
  420
  431
  429
  443
  458
  474
  491
  510
  530
  551
  573
  597
  622
  649
  677
  707
  738
  772
  807
  844
  883
  924
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  564
  339
  325
  311
  298
  284
  270
  256
  241
  226
  204
  189
  174
  159
  144
  130
  115
  101
  88
  76
  64
  54
  44
  36
  29
  23
  17
  13
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Under Armour, Inc. is engaged in the development, marketing and distribution of branded performance apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. The Company's segments include North America, consisting of the United States and Canada; Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA); Asia-Pacific; Latin America, and Connected Fitness. Its products are sold across the world and worn by athletes at all levels, from youth to professional, on playing fields around the globe, as well as by consumers with active lifestyles. The Company sells its branded apparel, footwear and accessories in North America through its wholesale and direct to consumer channels. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had approximately 151 factory house stores in North America primarily located in outlet centers throughout the United States. In addition, the Company distributes its products in North America through third-party logistics providers with primary locations in Canada, New Jersey and Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Under Armour Cl C (UA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.9
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -67.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 34.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 38.9%
Total Debt to Equity 40.2%
Interest Coverage 19
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Total Capital 9.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Return On Equity 13.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.9%
EBITDA Margin 11.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Operating Margin 8.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Net Profit Margin 5.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Effective Tax Rate 33.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.6%
Payout Ratio 1.2%

UA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4825 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Under Armour Cl C. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Under Armour Cl C. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Under Armour Cl C, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Under Armour Cl C.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Under Armour Cl C.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Under Armour Cl C. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UA are equal to 15.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Under Armour Cl C operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UA is equal to 21.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2031 million for Under Armour Cl C - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 490.991 million for Under Armour Cl C is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Under Armour Cl C at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Under Armour names European managing director, communications chief   [Dec-11-17 08:40PM  American City Business Journals]
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▶ Under Armour's chief digital officer is departing the company   [09:08AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Under Armour Taps Bergman to Be CFO   [Dec-04-17 06:52PM  The Wall Street Journal]
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Financial statements of UA
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