Intrinsic value of CVR Partners, LP - UAN

Previous Close

$3.57

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$3.57

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of UAN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.50
  23.45
  21.61
  19.94
  18.45
  17.11
  15.89
  14.81
  13.82
  12.94
  12.15
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
Revenue, $m
  441
  544
  661
  793
  940
  1,100
  1,275
  1,464
  1,666
  1,882
  2,111
  2,352
  2,606
  2,872
  3,150
  3,440
  3,743
  4,058
  4,386
  4,727
  5,081
  5,449
  5,831
  6,229
  6,642
  7,072
  7,519
  7,985
  8,470
  8,975
Variable operating expenses, $m
  452
  557
  676
  810
  959
  1,122
  1,300
  1,492
  1,698
  1,917
  2,145
  2,390
  2,648
  2,919
  3,201
  3,496
  3,804
  4,124
  4,458
  4,804
  5,164
  5,538
  5,926
  6,330
  6,750
  7,187
  7,642
  8,115
  8,608
  9,121
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  452
  557
  676
  810
  959
  1,122
  1,300
  1,492
  1,698
  1,917
  2,145
  2,390
  2,648
  2,919
  3,201
  3,496
  3,804
  4,124
  4,458
  4,804
  5,164
  5,538
  5,926
  6,330
  6,750
  7,187
  7,642
  8,115
  8,608
  9,121
Operating income, $m
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -34
  -38
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -146
EBITDA, $m
  81
  100
  122
  146
  173
  203
  235
  270
  307
  347
  389
  433
  480
  529
  580
  634
  690
  748
  808
  871
  936
  1,004
  1,075
  1,148
  1,224
  1,303
  1,386
  1,471
  1,561
  1,654
Interest expense (income), $m
  53
  63
  79
  112
  150
  192
  239
  291
  347
  408
  473
  542
  616
  693
  775
  860
  950
  1,043
  1,141
  1,242
  1,347
  1,457
  1,571
  1,689
  1,812
  1,940
  2,072
  2,211
  2,354
  2,504
  2,660
Earnings before tax, $m
  -74
  -92
  -127
  -167
  -212
  -262
  -316
  -375
  -439
  -508
  -577
  -654
  -736
  -822
  -912
  -1,006
  -1,104
  -1,207
  -1,313
  -1,424
  -1,540
  -1,660
  -1,784
  -1,913
  -2,048
  -2,188
  -2,333
  -2,485
  -2,642
  -2,806
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -74
  -92
  -127
  -167
  -212
  -262
  -316
  -375
  -439
  -508
  -577
  -654
  -736
  -822
  -912
  -1,006
  -1,104
  -1,207
  -1,313
  -1,424
  -1,540
  -1,660
  -1,784
  -1,913
  -2,048
  -2,188
  -2,333
  -2,485
  -2,642
  -2,806

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,573
  1,942
  2,362
  2,833
  3,355
  3,929
  4,554
  5,228
  5,951
  6,721
  7,538
  8,399
  9,306
  10,256
  11,250
  12,287
  13,368
  14,493
  15,664
  16,881
  18,146
  19,460
  20,826
  22,246
  23,722
  25,257
  26,854
  28,517
  30,249
  32,054
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,573
  1,942
  2,362
  2,833
  3,355
  3,929
  4,554
  5,228
  5,951
  6,721
  7,538
  8,399
  9,306
  10,256
  11,250
  12,287
  13,368
  14,493
  15,664
  16,881
  18,146
  19,460
  20,826
  22,246
  23,722
  25,257
  26,854
  28,517
  30,249
  32,054
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
Average production assets, $m
  1,334
  1,647
  2,003
  2,403
  2,846
  3,333
  3,862
  4,434
  5,047
  5,700
  6,393
  7,124
  7,892
  8,698
  9,541
  10,421
  11,338
  12,292
  13,285
  14,317
  15,390
  16,505
  17,663
  18,867
  20,119
  21,421
  22,776
  24,186
  25,655
  27,185
Working capital, $m
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  30
  34
  40
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  78
  85
  93
  101
  110
  118
  128
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
  191
  203
  216
  229
  242
Total debt, $m
  791
  1,123
  1,500
  1,924
  2,395
  2,911
  3,473
  4,080
  4,730
  5,424
  6,158
  6,934
  7,750
  8,605
  9,499
  10,433
  11,406
  12,419
  13,472
  14,568
  15,706
  16,889
  18,118
  19,396
  20,724
  22,106
  23,544
  25,040
  26,599
  28,223
Total liabilities, $m
  1,416
  1,748
  2,126
  2,550
  3,020
  3,536
  4,099
  4,705
  5,356
  6,049
  6,784
  7,559
  8,375
  9,230
  10,125
  11,058
  12,031
  13,044
  14,098
  15,193
  16,331
  17,514
  18,743
  20,021
  21,350
  22,731
  24,169
  25,665
  27,224
  28,848
Total equity, $m
  157
  194
  236
  283
  336
  393
  455
  523
  595
  672
  754
  840
  931
  1,026
  1,125
  1,229
  1,337
  1,449
  1,566
  1,688
  1,815
  1,946
  2,083
  2,225
  2,372
  2,526
  2,685
  2,852
  3,025
  3,205
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,573
  1,942
  2,362
  2,833
  3,356
  3,929
  4,554
  5,228
  5,951
  6,721
  7,538
  8,399
  9,306
  10,256
  11,250
  12,287
  13,368
  14,493
  15,664
  16,881
  18,146
  19,460
  20,826
  22,246
  23,722
  25,257
  26,854
  28,517
  30,249
  32,053
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.020
  5.780
  6.350
  6.790
  7.140
  7.410
  7.630
  7.800
  7.950
  8.070
  8.170
  8.260
  8.330
  8.390
  8.440
  8.490
  8.530
  8.570
  8.600
  8.630
  8.660
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.740
  8.750
  8.770
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -74
  -92
  -127
  -167
  -212
  -262
  -316
  -375
  -439
  -508
  -577
  -654
  -736
  -822
  -912
  -1,006
  -1,104
  -1,207
  -1,313
  -1,424
  -1,540
  -1,660
  -1,784
  -1,913
  -2,048
  -2,188
  -2,333
  -2,485
  -2,642
  -2,806
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  92
  113
  137
  163
  193
  225
  260
  298
  338
  382
  423
  472
  523
  576
  632
  690
  751
  814
  880
  948
  1,019
  1,093
  1,170
  1,249
  1,332
  1,419
  1,508
  1,602
  1,699
  1,800
Funds from operations, $m
  18
  21
  10
  -4
  -19
  -37
  -56
  -78
  -101
  -126
  -153
  -182
  -213
  -246
  -280
  -316
  -354
  -393
  -434
  -476
  -520
  -566
  -614
  -664
  -716
  -769
  -825
  -883
  -943
  -1,006
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  16
  18
  6
  -7
  -23
  -41
  -61
  -83
  -106
  -132
  -160
  -189
  -220
  -253
  -288
  -324
  -362
  -401
  -442
  -485
  -530
  -576
  -625
  -675
  -727
  -781
  -837
  -896
  -956
  -1,020
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -70
  -88
  -109
  -133
  -159
  -188
  -221
  -256
  -294
  -334
  -378
  -423
  -472
  -523
  -576
  -632
  -690
  -751
  -814
  -880
  -948
  -1,019
  -1,093
  -1,170
  -1,249
  -1,332
  -1,419
  -1,508
  -1,602
  -1,699
New CAPEX, $m
  -271
  -313
  -356
  -399
  -443
  -487
  -530
  -572
  -613
  -653
  -692
  -731
  -769
  -806
  -843
  -880
  -917
  -954
  -993
  -1,032
  -1,073
  -1,115
  -1,158
  -1,204
  -1,252
  -1,302
  -1,355
  -1,410
  -1,469
  -1,530
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -341
  -401
  -465
  -532
  -602
  -675
  -751
  -828
  -907
  -987
  -1,070
  -1,154
  -1,241
  -1,329
  -1,419
  -1,512
  -1,607
  -1,705
  -1,807
  -1,912
  -2,021
  -2,134
  -2,251
  -2,374
  -2,501
  -2,634
  -2,774
  -2,918
  -3,071
  -3,229
Free cash flow, $m
  -326
  -383
  -459
  -540
  -626
  -716
  -811
  -910
  -1,013
  -1,120
  -1,230
  -1,343
  -1,461
  -1,582
  -1,706
  -1,835
  -1,969
  -2,107
  -2,249
  -2,397
  -2,551
  -2,710
  -2,876
  -3,049
  -3,228
  -3,415
  -3,610
  -3,814
  -4,027
  -4,249
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  162
  332
  378
  424
  470
  517
  562
  607
  650
  693
  735
  776
  816
  855
  894
  934
  973
  1,013
  1,054
  1,095
  1,138
  1,183
  1,229
  1,278
  1,328
  1,382
  1,438
  1,497
  1,559
  1,624
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  232
  129
  169
  214
  264
  319
  378
  443
  512
  585
  658
  740
  827
  917
  1,011
  1,110
  1,212
  1,319
  1,431
  1,546
  1,666
  1,791
  1,921
  2,055
  2,196
  2,341
  2,493
  2,651
  2,815
  2,987
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  394
  461
  547
  638
  734
  836
  940
  1,050
  1,162
  1,278
  1,393
  1,516
  1,643
  1,772
  1,905
  2,044
  2,185
  2,332
  2,485
  2,641
  2,804
  2,974
  3,150
  3,333
  3,524
  3,723
  3,931
  4,148
  4,374
  4,611
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  68
  78
  88
  99
  109
  119
  129
  139
  149
  159
  164
  173
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  226
  235
  244
  254
  264
  274
  285
  296
  308
  320
  333
  347
  362
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -232
  -129
  -169
  -214
  -264
  -319
  -378
  -443
  -512
  -585
  -658
  -740
  -827
  -917
  -1,011
  -1,110
  -1,212
  -1,319
  -1,431
  -1,546
  -1,666
  -1,791
  -1,921
  -2,055
  -2,196
  -2,341
  -2,493
  -2,651
  -2,815
  -2,987
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -164
  -51
  -81
  -116
  -155
  -200
  -249
  -303
  -363
  -426
  -495
  -568
  -645
  -726
  -812
  -902
  -996
  -1,094
  -1,196
  -1,302
  -1,413
  -1,527
  -1,647
  -1,771
  -1,900
  -2,034
  -2,173
  -2,318
  -2,468
  -2,625
Discount rate, %
  13.60
  14.28
  14.99
  15.74
  16.53
  17.36
  18.23
  19.14
  20.09
  21.10
  22.15
  23.26
  24.42
  25.64
  26.93
  28.27
  29.69
  31.17
  32.73
  34.37
  36.08
  37.89
  39.78
  41.77
  43.86
  46.05
  48.36
  50.78
  53.31
  55.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -144
  -39
  -53
  -64
  -72
  -76
  -77
  -75
  -70
  -63
  -55
  -46
  -38
  -30
  -23
  -17
  -12
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  27.5
  14.7
  7.7
  4.0
  2.0
  1.0
  0.5
  0.3
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

CVR Partners, LP is a limited partnership formed by CVR Energy, Inc. (CVR Energy) to own, operate and grow its nitrogen fertilizer business. The Company produces and distributes nitrogen fertilizer products, which are used by farmers to manage the yield and quality of their crops. As of December 31, 2016, the Company produced its nitrogen fertilizer products at two manufacturing facilities, located in Coffeyville, Kansas and East Dubuque, Illinois. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's Coffeyville Facility included a 1,300 ton-per-day capacity ammonia unit, a 3,000 ton-per-day capacity urea-ammonium nitrate (UAN) unit, and a gasifier complex having a capacity of 89 million standard cubic feet per day of hydrogen. The gasifier is a dual-train facility, with each gasifier able to function independently of the other. The Coffeyville Facility utilizes a petroleum coke, or pet coke, gasification process to produce nitrogen fertilizer.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CVR Partners, LP (UAN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -15
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 35.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 99.7%
Total Debt to Equity 99.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Total Capital -3.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Return On Equity -5.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.6%
EBITDA Margin 23.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.1%
Operating Margin 6.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Net Profit Margin -7.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio -259.3%

UAN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UAN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $351 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CVR Partners, LP. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CVR Partners, LP. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UAN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.6%, whose default value for UAN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CVR Partners, LP, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CVR Partners, LP.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UAN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 102.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UAN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10% for CVR Partners, LP.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CVR Partners, LP. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UAN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UAN are equal to 302.9%.

Life of production assets of 15.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CVR Partners, LP operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UAN is equal to 2.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for CVR Partners, LP - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 113.284 million for CVR Partners, LP is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CVR Partners, LP at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
CF CF Industries 46.00 10.52  str.sell
CVI CVR Energy Inc 45.58 203.30  str.buy

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