Intrinsic value of Ubiquiti Networks - UBNT

Previous Close

$111.93

  Intrinsic Value

$91.02

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-19%

Previous close

$111.93

 
Intrinsic value

$91.02

 
Up/down potential

-19%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of UBNT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.70
  13.73
  12.86
  12.07
  11.36
  10.73
  10.15
  9.64
  9.18
  8.76
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
Revenue, $m
  992
  1,129
  1,274
  1,428
  1,590
  1,760
  1,939
  2,126
  2,321
  2,524
  2,736
  2,956
  3,185
  3,423
  3,670
  3,927
  4,194
  4,471
  4,760
  5,060
  5,373
  5,698
  6,038
  6,392
  6,761
  7,146
  7,548
  7,968
  8,407
  8,865
Variable operating expenses, $m
  632
  719
  811
  909
  1,013
  1,121
  1,235
  1,354
  1,479
  1,608
  1,743
  1,883
  2,029
  2,180
  2,338
  2,501
  2,671
  2,848
  3,032
  3,223
  3,422
  3,630
  3,846
  4,071
  4,306
  4,552
  4,808
  5,075
  5,355
  5,647
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  632
  719
  811
  909
  1,013
  1,121
  1,235
  1,354
  1,479
  1,608
  1,743
  1,883
  2,029
  2,180
  2,338
  2,501
  2,671
  2,848
  3,032
  3,223
  3,422
  3,630
  3,846
  4,071
  4,306
  4,552
  4,808
  5,075
  5,355
  5,647
Operating income, $m
  360
  410
  462
  518
  577
  639
  704
  772
  843
  916
  993
  1,073
  1,156
  1,242
  1,332
  1,425
  1,522
  1,623
  1,728
  1,837
  1,950
  2,069
  2,192
  2,320
  2,454
  2,594
  2,740
  2,892
  3,052
  3,218
EBITDA, $m
  363
  413
  466
  523
  582
  644
  710
  778
  850
  924
  1,001
  1,082
  1,166
  1,253
  1,343
  1,437
  1,535
  1,636
  1,742
  1,852
  1,966
  2,086
  2,210
  2,339
  2,474
  2,615
  2,762
  2,916
  3,077
  3,245
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  65
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
Earnings before tax, $m
  346
  393
  443
  495
  551
  609
  670
  734
  801
  870
  942
  1,018
  1,096
  1,177
  1,261
  1,349
  1,440
  1,535
  1,634
  1,736
  1,843
  1,954
  2,070
  2,191
  2,317
  2,449
  2,586
  2,730
  2,880
  3,036
Tax expense, $m
  94
  106
  120
  134
  149
  164
  181
  198
  216
  235
  254
  275
  296
  318
  341
  364
  389
  414
  441
  469
  498
  528
  559
  592
  626
  661
  698
  737
  778
  820
Net income, $m
  253
  287
  323
  362
  402
  445
  489
  536
  584
  635
  688
  743
  800
  859
  921
  985
  1,051
  1,121
  1,193
  1,268
  1,345
  1,427
  1,511
  1,600
  1,692
  1,788
  1,888
  1,993
  2,102
  2,217

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  519
  590
  666
  746
  831
  920
  1,014
  1,111
  1,213
  1,320
  1,430
  1,545
  1,665
  1,789
  1,918
  2,053
  2,192
  2,337
  2,488
  2,645
  2,809
  2,979
  3,156
  3,341
  3,534
  3,735
  3,945
  4,165
  4,394
  4,634
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  519
  590
  666
  746
  831
  920
  1,014
  1,111
  1,213
  1,320
  1,430
  1,545
  1,665
  1,789
  1,918
  2,053
  2,192
  2,337
  2,488
  2,645
  2,809
  2,979
  3,156
  3,341
  3,534
  3,735
  3,945
  4,165
  4,394
  4,634
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.911
  1.914
  1.913
  1.914
  1.913
  1.913
  1.912
  1.914
  1.913
  1.912
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
Average production assets, $m
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  85
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  120
  126
  133
Working capital, $m
  304
  345
  390
  437
  486
  539
  593
  651
  710
  772
  837
  905
  975
  1,047
  1,123
  1,202
  1,283
  1,368
  1,456
  1,548
  1,644
  1,744
  1,848
  1,956
  2,069
  2,187
  2,310
  2,438
  2,572
  2,713
Total debt, $m
  309
  365
  425
  488
  555
  626
  699
  776
  857
  940
  1,027
  1,118
  1,212
  1,310
  1,412
  1,518
  1,628
  1,742
  1,861
  1,985
  2,113
  2,248
  2,387
  2,533
  2,685
  2,844
  3,009
  3,182
  3,363
  3,552
Total liabilities, $m
  409
  465
  525
  588
  655
  725
  799
  876
  956
  1,040
  1,127
  1,218
  1,312
  1,410
  1,512
  1,617
  1,727
  1,842
  1,961
  2,084
  2,213
  2,347
  2,487
  2,633
  2,785
  2,943
  3,109
  3,282
  3,463
  3,652
Total equity, $m
  110
  125
  141
  158
  176
  195
  215
  236
  257
  280
  303
  328
  353
  379
  407
  435
  465
  495
  527
  561
  595
  631
  669
  708
  749
  792
  836
  883
  932
  982
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  519
  590
  666
  746
  831
  920
  1,014
  1,112
  1,213
  1,320
  1,430
  1,546
  1,665
  1,789
  1,919
  2,052
  2,192
  2,337
  2,488
  2,645
  2,808
  2,978
  3,156
  3,341
  3,534
  3,735
  3,945
  4,165
  4,395
  4,634
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.810
  2.920
  3.010
  3.090
  3.150
  3.210
  3.250
  3.290
  3.330
  3.360
  3.390
  3.410
  3.430
  3.450
  3.470
  3.490
  3.500
  3.520
  3.530
  3.540
  3.550
  3.560
  3.570
  3.580
  3.580
  3.590
  3.600
  3.600
  3.610
  3.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  253
  287
  323
  362
  402
  445
  489
  536
  584
  635
  688
  743
  800
  859
  921
  985
  1,051
  1,121
  1,193
  1,268
  1,345
  1,427
  1,511
  1,600
  1,692
  1,788
  1,888
  1,993
  2,102
  2,217
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
Funds from operations, $m
  256
  290
  327
  366
  407
  450
  495
  542
  591
  643
  696
  752
  809
  869
  932
  997
  1,064
  1,134
  1,207
  1,283
  1,362
  1,444
  1,529
  1,619
  1,712
  1,809
  1,911
  2,017
  2,127
  2,243
Change in working capital, $m
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
Cash from operations, $m
  217
  249
  283
  319
  357
  398
  440
  485
  532
  581
  631
  684
  739
  797
  856
  918
  982
  1,049
  1,119
  1,191
  1,266
  1,344
  1,426
  1,510
  1,599
  1,691
  1,788
  1,888
  1,993
  2,103
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
Free cash flow, $m
  212
  244
  277
  313
  350
  390
  432
  476
  522
  571
  621
  673
  727
  784
  842
  903
  967
  1,032
  1,101
  1,172
  1,246
  1,323
  1,403
  1,487
  1,574
  1,665
  1,760
  1,859
  1,963
  2,071
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  265
  300
  337
  376
  417
  461
  506
  553
  603
  654
  708
  764
  821
  882
  944
  1,009
  1,076
  1,147
  1,220
  1,296
  1,375
  1,457
  1,543
  1,633
  1,726
  1,824
  1,926
  2,032
  2,143
  2,260
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  506
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  757
  285
  321
  359
  399
  442
  486
  533
  581
  632
  684
  739
  796
  855
  917
  981
  1,047
  1,116
  1,188
  1,262
  1,340
  1,421
  1,506
  1,594
  1,685
  1,781
  1,881
  1,986
  2,095
  2,209
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  726
  261
  279
  296
  310
  321
  328
  333
  334
  331
  325
  315
  303
  287
  269
  249
  228
  206
  183
  160
  139
  118
  99
  81
  66
  52
  40
  31
  23
  17
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. develops performance networking technology for service providers and enterprises. The Company offers a portfolio of networking products and solutions. Its service provider product platforms provide carrier-class network infrastructure for fixed wireless broadband, wireless backhaul systems and routing. Its enterprise product platforms provide wireless local area network (WLAN) infrastructure, video surveillance products, switching and routing solutions, and machine-to-machine communication components. Its products and solutions include radios, antennas, software, communications protocols and management tools that are designed to deliver carrier and enterprise class wireless broadband access and other services primarily in the unlicensed radio frequency spectrum. Its service provider and carrier solutions include Base Station/Backhaul/Customer Premise Equipment (CPE)/Bridge-airMAX, Network Routing Platform-EdgeMAX and Point-to-point Wireless Backhaul-airFiber.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.8
Price to Sales 10.4
Price to Book 14.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 80.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 85.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 29.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 40
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 40.2%
Total Debt to Equity 42.7%
Interest Coverage 58
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 30.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Return On Total Capital 34.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
Return On Equity 49.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.2%
EBITDA Margin 34.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Operating Margin 33.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 32.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.2%
Net Profit Margin 29.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
Effective Tax Rate 9.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

UBNT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UBNT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $865.268 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ubiquiti Networks. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Ubiquiti Networks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UBNT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UBNT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ubiquiti Networks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ubiquiti Networks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UBNT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 63.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UBNT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ubiquiti Networks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ubiquiti Networks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UBNT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UBNT are equal to 1.5%.

Life of production assets of 1.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ubiquiti Networks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UBNT is equal to 30.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $601.764 million for Ubiquiti Networks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 74.069 million for Ubiquiti Networks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ubiquiti Networks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.3 billion.

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