Intrinsic value of Urban Edge Properties - UE

Previous Close

$25.20

  Intrinsic Value

$1.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-93%

  Value-price divergence*

-58%

Previous close

$25.20

 
Intrinsic value

$1.70

 
Up/down potential

-93%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-58%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as UE.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of UE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.93
  13.90
  13.01
  12.21
  11.49
  10.84
  10.26
  9.73
  9.26
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.04
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
Revenue, $m
  326
  371
  420
  471
  525
  582
  642
  704
  769
  837
  908
  981
  1,058
  1,137
  1,220
  1,306
  1,395
  1,488
  1,584
  1,684
  1,789
  1,898
  2,011
  2,129
  2,252
  2,381
  2,515
  2,656
  2,802
  2,955
  3,115
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  258
  292
  328
  365
  405
  446
  490
  535
  583
  632
  683
  736
  792
  849
  909
  971
  1,035
  1,103
  1,172
  1,245
  1,321
  1,400
  1,482
  1,568
  1,657
  1,751
  1,848
  1,950
  2,057
  2,168
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  193
  258
  292
  328
  365
  405
  446
  490
  535
  583
  632
  683
  736
  792
  849
  909
  971
  1,035
  1,103
  1,172
  1,245
  1,321
  1,400
  1,482
  1,568
  1,657
  1,751
  1,848
  1,950
  2,057
  2,168
Operating income, $m
  133
  113
  128
  143
  160
  177
  195
  214
  234
  254
  276
  298
  322
  346
  371
  397
  424
  452
  482
  512
  544
  577
  611
  647
  685
  724
  765
  807
  852
  898
  947
EBITDA, $m
  190
  178
  201
  225
  251
  279
  307
  337
  368
  401
  435
  470
  506
  544
  584
  625
  668
  712
  758
  806
  856
  908
  963
  1,019
  1,078
  1,140
  1,204
  1,271
  1,341
  1,415
  1,491
Interest expense (income), $m
  51
  50
  59
  68
  77
  87
  98
  109
  121
  133
  145
  159
  172
  186
  201
  217
  233
  249
  266
  284
  303
  322
  343
  364
  386
  409
  433
  458
  484
  511
  539
Earnings before tax, $m
  97
  63
  69
  75
  82
  90
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  140
  149
  159
  170
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  254
  269
  283
  299
  315
  332
  350
  368
  387
  408
Tax expense, $m
  0
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  105
  110
Net income, $m
  91
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  269
  283
  298

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  132
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,904
  2,018
  2,281
  2,559
  2,853
  3,162
  3,487
  3,826
  4,180
  4,549
  4,933
  5,333
  5,749
  6,181
  6,629
  7,096
  7,581
  8,085
  8,609
  9,154
  9,722
  10,314
  10,930
  11,572
  12,242
  12,941
  13,671
  14,433
  15,229
  16,061
  16,932
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,772
  2,018
  2,281
  2,559
  2,853
  3,162
  3,487
  3,826
  4,180
  4,549
  4,933
  5,333
  5,749
  6,181
  6,629
  7,096
  7,581
  8,085
  8,609
  9,154
  9,722
  10,314
  10,930
  11,572
  12,242
  12,941
  13,671
  14,433
  15,229
  16,061
  16,932
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
Average production assets, $m
  1,629
  1,855
  2,097
  2,353
  2,623
  2,907
  3,206
  3,518
  3,843
  4,183
  4,536
  4,903
  5,286
  5,683
  6,095
  6,524
  6,970
  7,434
  7,916
  8,417
  8,939
  9,483
  10,049
  10,640
  11,256
  11,898
  12,569
  13,270
  14,002
  14,768
  15,568
Working capital, $m
  0
  -150
  -170
  -191
  -213
  -236
  -260
  -285
  -311
  -339
  -368
  -397
  -428
  -461
  -494
  -529
  -565
  -602
  -642
  -682
  -725
  -769
  -814
  -862
  -912
  -964
  -1,019
  -1,076
  -1,135
  -1,197
  -1,262
Total debt, $m
  1,198
  1,399
  1,613
  1,840
  2,079
  2,331
  2,595
  2,872
  3,161
  3,461
  3,775
  4,100
  4,439
  4,791
  5,157
  5,537
  5,932
  6,343
  6,770
  7,215
  7,678
  8,160
  8,662
  9,185
  9,731
  10,301
  10,896
  11,517
  12,166
  12,844
  13,553
Total liabilities, $m
  1,444
  1,645
  1,859
  2,086
  2,325
  2,577
  2,841
  3,118
  3,407
  3,707
  4,021
  4,346
  4,685
  5,037
  5,403
  5,783
  6,178
  6,589
  7,016
  7,461
  7,924
  8,406
  8,908
  9,431
  9,977
  10,547
  11,142
  11,763
  12,412
  13,090
  13,799
Total equity, $m
  460
  373
  422
  473
  528
  585
  645
  708
  773
  842
  913
  987
  1,064
  1,143
  1,226
  1,313
  1,402
  1,496
  1,593
  1,694
  1,799
  1,908
  2,022
  2,141
  2,265
  2,394
  2,529
  2,670
  2,817
  2,971
  3,132
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,904
  2,018
  2,281
  2,559
  2,853
  3,162
  3,486
  3,826
  4,180
  4,549
  4,934
  5,333
  5,749
  6,180
  6,629
  7,096
  7,580
  8,085
  8,609
  9,155
  9,723
  10,314
  10,930
  11,572
  12,242
  12,941
  13,671
  14,433
  15,229
  16,061
  16,931
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.604
  3.750
  3.820
  3.890
  3.940
  3.980
  4.020
  4.060
  4.090
  4.110
  4.140
  4.160
  4.170
  4.190
  4.200
  4.220
  4.230
  4.240
  4.250
  4.260
  4.270
  4.280
  4.280
  4.290
  4.300
  4.300
  4.310
  4.310
  4.320
  4.320
  4.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  91
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  269
  283
  298
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  57
  65
  73
  82
  92
  102
  112
  123
  134
  146
  159
  171
  185
  199
  213
  228
  244
  260
  277
  294
  313
  332
  351
  372
  394
  416
  439
  464
  490
  516
  544
Funds from operations, $m
  134
  111
  124
  137
  152
  167
  183
  200
  217
  235
  254
  273
  294
  315
  337
  360
  383
  408
  434
  461
  488
  517
  547
  579
  612
  646
  682
  719
  758
  799
  842
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
Cash from operations, $m
  137
  129
  143
  158
  174
  190
  207
  225
  243
  263
  283
  303
  325
  347
  370
  395
  420
  446
  473
  501
  531
  561
  593
  627
  662
  698
  736
  776
  818
  861
  907
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -57
  -65
  -73
  -82
  -92
  -102
  -112
  -123
  -134
  -146
  -159
  -171
  -185
  -199
  -213
  -228
  -244
  -260
  -277
  -294
  -313
  -332
  -351
  -372
  -394
  -416
  -439
  -464
  -490
  -516
New CAPEX, $m
  -79
  -226
  -241
  -256
  -270
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -326
  -339
  -353
  -368
  -382
  -397
  -413
  -429
  -446
  -463
  -482
  -502
  -522
  -544
  -566
  -591
  -616
  -643
  -671
  -701
  -732
  -765
  -800
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -59
  -283
  -306
  -329
  -352
  -376
  -400
  -424
  -449
  -473
  -499
  -527
  -553
  -582
  -612
  -642
  -674
  -707
  -742
  -779
  -816
  -857
  -898
  -942
  -988
  -1,037
  -1,087
  -1,140
  -1,196
  -1,255
  -1,316
Free cash flow, $m
  78
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -199
  -205
  -211
  -217
  -223
  -229
  -235
  -241
  -247
  -254
  -261
  -269
  -277
  -286
  -295
  -305
  -315
  -326
  -338
  -351
  -364
  -378
  -394
  -410
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -38
  201
  214
  227
  240
  252
  264
  276
  289
  301
  313
  326
  339
  352
  366
  380
  395
  411
  427
  445
  463
  482
  502
  523
  546
  570
  595
  621
  649
  678
  709
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -35
  201
  214
  227
  240
  252
  264
  276
  289
  301
  313
  326
  339
  352
  366
  380
  395
  411
  427
  445
  463
  482
  502
  523
  546
  570
  595
  621
  649
  678
  709
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  43
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  77
  83
  90
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  132
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  133
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  138
Discount rate, %
 
  9.90
  10.40
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.64
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.83
  25.02
  26.27
  27.58
  28.96
  30.41
  31.93
  33.52
  35.20
  36.96
  38.81
  40.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  121
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Urban Edge Properties is a real estate investment trust. The Company is focused on managing, developing, redeveloping and acquiring retail real estate in urban communities, in the New York metropolitan region. Urban Edge Properties LP (UELP or the Operating Partnership) serves as its partnership subsidiary and owns, through affiliates, all of its real estate properties and other assets. As of December 31, 2016, its portfolio consisted of 79 shopping centers, three malls and a warehouse park adjacent to one of its centers totaling 14.8 million square feet. As of December 31, 2016, it leased 19 properties under ground and/or building leases. As of December 31, 2016, it had approximately 1,200 leases. Its shopping centers and malls are located at California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Virginia and Puerto Rico. Its shopping centers and malls include Signal Hill, Vallejo, Walnut Creek, Newington and others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Urban Edge Properties (UE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.6
Price to Sales 7.7
Price to Book 5.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 43.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 19.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 25.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 260.4%
Total Debt to Equity 260.4%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Total Capital 5.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 20.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 67.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.9%
EBITDA Margin 62.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.4%
Operating Margin 40.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 29.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.5%
Net Profit Margin 27.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Payout Ratio 89%

UE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $326 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Urban Edge Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Urban Edge Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.9%, whose default value for UE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Urban Edge Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Urban Edge Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Urban Edge Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Urban Edge Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UE are equal to 499.7%.

Life of production assets of 28.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Urban Edge Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UE is equal to -40.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $460 million for Urban Edge Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 115.856 million for Urban Edge Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Urban Edge Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Mall REITs: What's Up New Jersey?   [Sep-18-17 09:35AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Urban Edge Properties Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Urban Edge Properties reports 1Q results   [May-03-17 06:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Real-estate and construction sector lead S&P 500 gainers   [Apr-11-17 02:05PM  MarketWatch]
Financial statements of UE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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