Intrinsic value of Urban Edge Properties - UE

Previous Close

$22.05

  Intrinsic Value

$1.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-93%

Previous close

$22.05

 
Intrinsic value

$1.46

 
Up/down potential

-93%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as UE.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of UE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Urban Edge Properties (UE) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.93
  17.50
  16.25
  15.13
  14.11
  13.20
  12.38
  11.64
  10.98
  10.38
  9.84
  9.36
  8.92
  8.53
  8.18
  7.86
  7.57
  7.32
  7.08
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
Revenue, $m
  326
  383
  445
  513
  585
  662
  744
  831
  922
  1,018
  1,118
  1,223
  1,332
  1,445
  1,563
  1,686
  1,814
  1,947
  2,085
  2,228
  2,377
  2,532
  2,693
  2,861
  3,036
  3,218
  3,408
  3,606
  3,812
  4,028
  4,253
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  267
  310
  357
  407
  461
  518
  578
  642
  708
  778
  851
  927
  1,006
  1,088
  1,174
  1,263
  1,355
  1,451
  1,551
  1,654
  1,762
  1,875
  1,991
  2,113
  2,240
  2,372
  2,510
  2,653
  2,803
  2,960
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  193
  267
  310
  357
  407
  461
  518
  578
  642
  708
  778
  851
  927
  1,006
  1,088
  1,174
  1,263
  1,355
  1,451
  1,551
  1,654
  1,762
  1,875
  1,991
  2,113
  2,240
  2,372
  2,510
  2,653
  2,803
  2,960
Operating income, $m
  133
  116
  135
  156
  178
  201
  226
  253
  280
  309
  340
  372
  405
  439
  475
  513
  551
  592
  634
  677
  723
  770
  819
  870
  923
  978
  1,036
  1,096
  1,159
  1,224
  1,293
EBITDA, $m
  190
  183
  213
  245
  280
  317
  356
  398
  441
  487
  535
  585
  638
  692
  748
  807
  868
  932
  998
  1,067
  1,138
  1,212
  1,289
  1,370
  1,453
  1,540
  1,631
  1,726
  1,825
  1,928
  2,036
Interest expense (income), $m
  51
  50
  61
  73
  85
  98
  113
  128
  144
  161
  179
  198
  217
  237
  259
  281
  303
  327
  352
  377
  404
  432
  461
  491
  522
  554
  588
  624
  660
  699
  739
Earnings before tax, $m
  97
  66
  74
  83
  93
  103
  113
  124
  136
  148
  161
  174
  188
  202
  217
  232
  248
  265
  282
  300
  318
  338
  358
  379
  401
  424
  448
  472
  498
  526
  554
Tax expense, $m
  0
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
Net income, $m
  91
  48
  54
  61
  68
  75
  83
  91
  99
  108
  117
  127
  137
  147
  158
  169
  181
  193
  206
  219
  232
  247
  261
  277
  293
  309
  327
  345
  364
  384
  404

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  132
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,904
  2,082
  2,420
  2,786
  3,179
  3,599
  4,045
  4,516
  5,011
  5,532
  6,076
  6,645
  7,237
  7,855
  8,497
  9,165
  9,859
  10,580
  11,330
  12,109
  12,919
  13,761
  14,638
  15,550
  16,499
  17,489
  18,520
  19,596
  20,718
  21,889
  23,113
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,772
  2,082
  2,420
  2,786
  3,179
  3,599
  4,045
  4,516
  5,011
  5,532
  6,076
  6,645
  7,237
  7,855
  8,497
  9,165
  9,859
  10,580
  11,330
  12,109
  12,919
  13,761
  14,638
  15,550
  16,499
  17,489
  18,520
  19,596
  20,718
  21,889
  23,113
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
Average production assets, $m
  1,629
  1,914
  2,225
  2,562
  2,923
  3,309
  3,719
  4,152
  4,608
  5,086
  5,587
  6,109
  6,654
  7,222
  7,813
  8,427
  9,065
  9,728
  10,417
  11,134
  11,878
  12,653
  13,458
  14,297
  15,170
  16,080
  17,028
  18,017
  19,049
  20,126
  21,251
Working capital, $m
  0
  -155
  -180
  -208
  -237
  -268
  -301
  -336
  -373
  -412
  -453
  -495
  -539
  -585
  -633
  -683
  -735
  -788
  -844
  -902
  -963
  -1,025
  -1,091
  -1,159
  -1,230
  -1,303
  -1,380
  -1,460
  -1,544
  -1,631
  -1,722
Total debt, $m
  1,198
  1,451
  1,726
  2,025
  2,345
  2,687
  3,050
  3,434
  3,838
  4,262
  4,706
  5,169
  5,653
  6,156
  6,679
  7,223
  7,789
  8,377
  8,988
  9,623
  10,283
  10,969
  11,684
  12,427
  13,201
  14,007
  14,848
  15,725
  16,639
  17,594
  18,591
Total liabilities, $m
  1,444
  1,697
  1,972
  2,271
  2,591
  2,933
  3,296
  3,680
  4,084
  4,508
  4,952
  5,415
  5,899
  6,402
  6,925
  7,469
  8,035
  8,623
  9,234
  9,869
  10,529
  11,215
  11,930
  12,673
  13,447
  14,253
  15,094
  15,971
  16,885
  17,840
  18,837
Total equity, $m
  460
  385
  448
  515
  588
  666
  748
  835
  927
  1,023
  1,124
  1,229
  1,339
  1,453
  1,572
  1,696
  1,824
  1,957
  2,096
  2,240
  2,390
  2,546
  2,708
  2,877
  3,052
  3,235
  3,426
  3,625
  3,833
  4,050
  4,276
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,904
  2,082
  2,420
  2,786
  3,179
  3,599
  4,044
  4,515
  5,011
  5,531
  6,076
  6,644
  7,238
  7,855
  8,497
  9,165
  9,859
  10,580
  11,330
  12,109
  12,919
  13,761
  14,638
  15,550
  16,499
  17,488
  18,520
  19,596
  20,718
  21,890
  23,113
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.604
  3.770
  3.860
  3.930
  3.990
  4.040
  4.080
  4.110
  4.140
  4.170
  4.190
  4.210
  4.220
  4.240
  4.250
  4.260
  4.270
  4.280
  4.290
  4.300
  4.300
  4.310
  4.310
  4.320
  4.320
  4.330
  4.330
  4.340
  4.340
  4.340
  4.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  91
  48
  54
  61
  68
  75
  83
  91
  99
  108
  117
  127
  137
  147
  158
  169
  181
  193
  206
  219
  232
  247
  261
  277
  293
  309
  327
  345
  364
  384
  404
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  57
  67
  78
  90
  102
  116
  130
  145
  161
  178
  195
  214
  233
  253
  273
  295
  317
  340
  364
  389
  415
  442
  471
  500
  530
  562
  595
  630
  666
  704
  743
Funds from operations, $m
  134
  115
  132
  150
  170
  191
  213
  236
  260
  286
  313
  341
  370
  400
  431
  464
  498
  533
  570
  608
  648
  689
  732
  777
  823
  872
  922
  975
  1,030
  1,087
  1,147
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
Cash from operations, $m
  137
  138
  157
  178
  199
  222
  246
  271
  297
  325
  353
  383
  414
  446
  479
  514
  550
  587
  626
  666
  708
  752
  797
  845
  894
  945
  999
  1,055
  1,114
  1,175
  1,239
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -57
  -67
  -78
  -90
  -102
  -116
  -130
  -145
  -161
  -178
  -195
  -214
  -233
  -253
  -273
  -295
  -317
  -340
  -364
  -389
  -415
  -442
  -471
  -500
  -530
  -562
  -595
  -630
  -666
  -704
New CAPEX, $m
  -79
  -285
  -311
  -337
  -362
  -386
  -410
  -433
  -456
  -478
  -501
  -523
  -545
  -568
  -591
  -614
  -638
  -663
  -689
  -716
  -745
  -774
  -806
  -839
  -873
  -910
  -948
  -989
  -1,032
  -1,077
  -1,125
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -59
  -342
  -378
  -415
  -452
  -488
  -526
  -563
  -601
  -639
  -679
  -718
  -759
  -801
  -844
  -887
  -933
  -980
  -1,029
  -1,080
  -1,134
  -1,189
  -1,248
  -1,310
  -1,373
  -1,440
  -1,510
  -1,584
  -1,662
  -1,743
  -1,829
Free cash flow, $m
  78
  -204
  -221
  -237
  -252
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -304
  -315
  -325
  -335
  -345
  -354
  -364
  -373
  -383
  -393
  -403
  -414
  -426
  -438
  -451
  -465
  -479
  -495
  -512
  -529
  -548
  -568
  -590
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -38
  253
  276
  298
  320
  342
  363
  384
  404
  424
  444
  463
  483
  503
  523
  544
  566
  588
  611
  635
  660
  686
  714
  743
  774
  806
  841
  877
  915
  955
  997
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  9
  8
  7
  5
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -35
  262
  284
  305
  325
  345
  363
  384
  404
  424
  444
  463
  483
  503
  523
  544
  566
  588
  611
  635
  660
  686
  714
  743
  774
  806
  841
  877
  915
  955
  997
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  43
  58
  63
  69
  74
  79
  84
  92
  100
  109
  119
  128
  138
  149
  160
  171
  183
  195
  207
  221
  234
  249
  263
  279
  295
  312
  329
  347
  366
  386
  407
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -57
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -226
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  132
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  133
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  5
  9
  13
  18
  23
  29
  35
  41
  47
  54
  61
  69
  76
  84
  93
  101
  110
  119
  129
  138
  148
  159
  170
  181
Discount rate, %
 
  9.90
  10.40
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.64
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.83
  25.02
  26.27
  27.58
  28.96
  30.41
  31.93
  33.52
  35.20
  36.96
  38.81
  40.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  121
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.5
  99.1
  98.8
  98.7
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6
  98.6

Urban Edge Properties is a real estate investment trust. The Company is focused on managing, developing, redeveloping and acquiring retail real estate in urban communities, in the New York metropolitan region. Urban Edge Properties LP (UELP or the Operating Partnership) serves as its partnership subsidiary and owns, through affiliates, all of its real estate properties and other assets. As of December 31, 2016, its portfolio consisted of 79 shopping centers, three malls and a warehouse park adjacent to one of its centers totaling 14.8 million square feet. As of December 31, 2016, it leased 19 properties under ground and/or building leases. As of December 31, 2016, it had approximately 1,200 leases. Its shopping centers and malls are located at California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Virginia and Puerto Rico. Its shopping centers and malls include Signal Hill, Vallejo, Walnut Creek, Newington and others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Urban Edge Properties (UE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.2
Price to Sales 6.7
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 37.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 19.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 25.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 260.4%
Total Debt to Equity 260.4%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Total Capital 5.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 20.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 67.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.9%
EBITDA Margin 62.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.4%
Operating Margin 40.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 29.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.5%
Net Profit Margin 27.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Payout Ratio 89%

UE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $326 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Urban Edge Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Urban Edge Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.9%, whose default value for UE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Urban Edge Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Urban Edge Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Urban Edge Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Urban Edge Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UE are equal to 499.7%.

Life of production assets of 28.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Urban Edge Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UE is equal to -40.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $460 million for Urban Edge Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 113.77 million for Urban Edge Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Urban Edge Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Montco real estate company buys Pa. shopping complex for $55.3M   [Feb-16-18 02:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Urban Edge Properties reports 4Q results   [Feb-14-18 06:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Urban Edge Properties reports 3Q results   [Nov-02-17 05:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ Urban Edge Properties Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-01-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Mall REITs: What's Up New Jersey?   [Sep-18-17 09:35AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Urban Edge Properties Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Urban Edge Properties reports 1Q results   [May-03-17 06:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Real-estate and construction sector lead S&P 500 gainers   [Apr-11-17 02:05PM  MarketWatch]
Financial statements of UE
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