Intrinsic value of Universal Forest Products - UFPI

Previous Close

$28.18

  Intrinsic Value

$10.58

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-62%

Previous close

$28.18

 
Intrinsic value

$10.58

 
Up/down potential

-62%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of UFPI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.70
  19.13
  17.72
  16.45
  15.30
  14.27
  13.34
  12.51
  11.76
  11.08
  10.47
  9.93
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
Revenue, $m
  4,757
  5,667
  6,671
  7,768
  8,957
  10,235
  11,601
  13,052
  14,586
  16,203
  17,900
  19,677
  21,533
  23,469
  25,486
  27,584
  29,766
  32,033
  34,390
  36,839
  39,384
  42,029
  44,781
  47,643
  50,622
  53,723
  56,954
  60,322
  63,834
  67,497
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,509
  5,367
  6,313
  7,347
  8,467
  9,672
  10,959
  12,327
  13,774
  15,297
  16,871
  18,546
  20,296
  22,121
  24,021
  25,999
  28,055
  30,192
  32,413
  34,721
  37,120
  39,614
  42,207
  44,905
  47,712
  50,636
  53,681
  56,855
  60,165
  63,618
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,509
  5,367
  6,313
  7,347
  8,467
  9,672
  10,959
  12,327
  13,774
  15,297
  16,871
  18,546
  20,296
  22,121
  24,021
  25,999
  28,055
  30,192
  32,413
  34,721
  37,120
  39,614
  42,207
  44,905
  47,712
  50,636
  53,681
  56,855
  60,165
  63,618
Operating income, $m
  248
  300
  358
  421
  489
  563
  641
  725
  813
  906
  1,029
  1,131
  1,238
  1,349
  1,465
  1,585
  1,711
  1,841
  1,976
  2,117
  2,263
  2,415
  2,574
  2,738
  2,909
  3,087
  3,273
  3,467
  3,668
  3,879
EBITDA, $m
  324
  386
  454
  529
  609
  696
  789
  888
  993
  1,103
  1,218
  1,339
  1,465
  1,597
  1,734
  1,877
  2,025
  2,180
  2,340
  2,507
  2,680
  2,860
  3,047
  3,242
  3,445
  3,656
  3,876
  4,105
  4,344
  4,593
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  9
  15
  21
  28
  36
  44
  53
  62
  72
  83
  94
  106
  118
  131
  144
  158
  173
  188
  204
  220
  237
  255
  273
  292
  312
  332
  354
  376
  400
  424
Earnings before tax, $m
  239
  285
  337
  393
  453
  519
  588
  662
  740
  823
  935
  1,025
  1,119
  1,218
  1,320
  1,427
  1,538
  1,653
  1,773
  1,897
  2,026
  2,161
  2,301
  2,446
  2,597
  2,755
  2,919
  3,090
  3,269
  3,455
Tax expense, $m
  64
  77
  91
  106
  122
  140
  159
  179
  200
  222
  252
  277
  302
  329
  356
  385
  415
  446
  479
  512
  547
  583
  621
  660
  701
  744
  788
  834
  883
  933
Net income, $m
  174
  208
  246
  287
  331
  379
  429
  483
  541
  601
  682
  748
  817
  889
  964
  1,042
  1,122
  1,207
  1,294
  1,385
  1,479
  1,577
  1,679
  1,786
  1,896
  2,011
  2,131
  2,256
  2,386
  2,522

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,768
  2,106
  2,479
  2,887
  3,328
  3,803
  4,311
  4,850
  5,420
  6,021
  6,652
  7,312
  8,002
  8,721
  9,471
  10,250
  11,061
  11,904
  12,780
  13,690
  14,635
  15,618
  16,641
  17,704
  18,811
  19,964
  21,165
  22,416
  23,721
  25,083
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,768
  2,106
  2,479
  2,887
  3,328
  3,803
  4,311
  4,850
  5,420
  6,021
  6,652
  7,312
  8,002
  8,721
  9,471
  10,250
  11,061
  11,904
  12,780
  13,690
  14,635
  15,618
  16,641
  17,704
  18,811
  19,964
  21,165
  22,416
  23,721
  25,083
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
  2.691
Average production assets, $m
  523
  623
  734
  854
  985
  1,126
  1,276
  1,436
  1,605
  1,782
  1,969
  2,164
  2,369
  2,582
  2,803
  3,034
  3,274
  3,524
  3,783
  4,052
  4,332
  4,623
  4,926
  5,241
  5,568
  5,910
  6,265
  6,635
  7,022
  7,425
Working capital, $m
  661
  788
  927
  1,080
  1,245
  1,423
  1,612
  1,814
  2,028
  2,252
  2,488
  2,735
  2,993
  3,262
  3,543
  3,834
  4,137
  4,453
  4,780
  5,121
  5,474
  5,842
  6,225
  6,622
  7,036
  7,468
  7,917
  8,385
  8,873
  9,382
Total debt, $m
  277
  393
  522
  663
  815
  979
  1,154
  1,340
  1,537
  1,744
  1,962
  2,189
  2,427
  2,676
  2,934
  3,203
  3,483
  3,773
  4,076
  4,390
  4,716
  5,055
  5,408
  5,775
  6,157
  6,554
  6,968
  7,400
  7,850
  8,320
Total liabilities, $m
  610
  727
  855
  996
  1,148
  1,312
  1,487
  1,673
  1,870
  2,077
  2,295
  2,523
  2,761
  3,009
  3,267
  3,536
  3,816
  4,107
  4,409
  4,723
  5,049
  5,388
  5,741
  6,108
  6,490
  6,888
  7,302
  7,734
  8,184
  8,654
Total equity, $m
  1,158
  1,379
  1,624
  1,891
  2,180
  2,491
  2,824
  3,177
  3,550
  3,944
  4,357
  4,789
  5,241
  5,713
  6,203
  6,714
  7,245
  7,797
  8,371
  8,967
  9,586
  10,230
  10,900
  11,596
  12,321
  13,076
  13,863
  14,683
  15,537
  16,429
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,768
  2,106
  2,479
  2,887
  3,328
  3,803
  4,311
  4,850
  5,420
  6,021
  6,652
  7,312
  8,002
  8,722
  9,470
  10,250
  11,061
  11,904
  12,780
  13,690
  14,635
  15,618
  16,641
  17,704
  18,811
  19,964
  21,165
  22,417
  23,721
  25,083
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.240
  0.290
  0.320
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  174
  208
  246
  287
  331
  379
  429
  483
  541
  601
  682
  748
  817
  889
  964
  1,042
  1,122
  1,207
  1,294
  1,385
  1,479
  1,577
  1,679
  1,786
  1,896
  2,011
  2,131
  2,256
  2,386
  2,522
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  76
  85
  96
  108
  120
  134
  148
  164
  180
  197
  189
  208
  228
  248
  270
  292
  315
  339
  364
  390
  417
  445
  474
  504
  535
  568
  602
  638
  675
  714
Funds from operations, $m
  250
  294
  342
  394
  451
  512
  578
  647
  720
  797
  872
  956
  1,045
  1,137
  1,233
  1,333
  1,437
  1,545
  1,658
  1,774
  1,896
  2,022
  2,153
  2,289
  2,431
  2,579
  2,733
  2,894
  3,061
  3,236
Change in working capital, $m
  113
  126
  140
  152
  165
  178
  190
  202
  213
  225
  236
  247
  258
  269
  280
  292
  303
  315
  328
  340
  354
  368
  382
  398
  414
  431
  449
  468
  488
  509
Cash from operations, $m
  137
  167
  202
  242
  286
  335
  388
  445
  507
  573
  636
  709
  787
  868
  953
  1,042
  1,134
  1,230
  1,330
  1,434
  1,542
  1,654
  1,771
  1,892
  2,017
  2,148
  2,284
  2,426
  2,573
  2,727
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -50
  -60
  -71
  -82
  -95
  -108
  -123
  -138
  -154
  -171
  -189
  -208
  -228
  -248
  -270
  -292
  -315
  -339
  -364
  -390
  -417
  -445
  -474
  -504
  -535
  -568
  -602
  -638
  -675
New CAPEX, $m
  -89
  -100
  -110
  -121
  -131
  -141
  -150
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -213
  -222
  -231
  -240
  -249
  -259
  -269
  -280
  -291
  -303
  -315
  -328
  -341
  -355
  -370
  -386
  -403
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -131
  -150
  -170
  -192
  -213
  -236
  -258
  -283
  -307
  -332
  -358
  -384
  -412
  -441
  -470
  -501
  -532
  -564
  -598
  -633
  -670
  -708
  -748
  -789
  -832
  -876
  -923
  -972
  -1,024
  -1,078
Free cash flow, $m
  5
  17
  32
  51
  73
  99
  129
  163
  200
  241
  278
  325
  374
  427
  483
  541
  602
  666
  732
  801
  872
  947
  1,023
  1,103
  1,186
  1,272
  1,361
  1,453
  1,549
  1,649
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  105
  117
  129
  141
  152
  164
  175
  186
  197
  207
  218
  228
  238
  248
  259
  269
  280
  291
  302
  314
  326
  339
  353
  367
  382
  398
  414
  432
  450
  470
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  24
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  129
  130
  129
  141
  152
  164
  175
  186
  197
  207
  218
  228
  238
  248
  259
  269
  280
  291
  302
  314
  326
  339
  353
  367
  382
  398
  414
  432
  450
  470
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  134
  147
  161
  191
  226
  263
  304
  349
  397
  448
  495
  552
  612
  676
  741
  810
  882
  957
  1,034
  1,115
  1,199
  1,286
  1,376
  1,470
  1,568
  1,669
  1,775
  1,885
  1,999
  2,118
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -198
  -222
  -244
  -267
  -289
  -311
  -332
  -353
  -374
  -393
  -413
  -433
  -452
  -471
  -491
  -511
  -531
  -552
  -574
  -596
  -619
  -644
  -670
  -697
  -725
  -755
  -786
  -820
  -855
  -892
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -64
  -75
  -84
  -76
  -64
  -48
  -28
  -4
  23
  54
  82
  120
  161
  204
  251
  300
  351
  405
  461
  519
  579
  642
  706
  773
  843
  914
  988
  1,065
  1,144
  1,227
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -61
  -68
  -73
  -62
  -49
  -35
  -19
  -3
  13
  29
  39
  51
  61
  69
  74
  76
  76
  75
  71
  66
  60
  53
  46
  39
  33
  27
  21
  16
  12
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.6
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0

Universal Forest Products, Inc. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, supplies wood, wood composite and other products to three primary markets, such as retail, construction and industrial. Its segments include North, South, West, Alternative Materials, International, idX Holdings, Inc. (idX) and Corporate divisions. idX is a designer, manufacturer and installer of in-store environments. It designs, manufactures and markets wood and wood-alternative products for national home centers and other retailers; structural lumber and other products for the manufactured housing industry; engineered wood components for residential and commercial construction; specialty wood packaging, components and packing materials for various industries, and customized interior fixtures used in a range of retail stores, commercial and other structures. Its customers comprising retail market are national home center retailers and retail-oriented regional lumberyards, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Universal Forest Products (UFPI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 22.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 12.7%
Total Debt to Equity 15.4%
Interest Coverage 33
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 11.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Equity 12.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
EBITDA Margin 6.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Operating Margin 5.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 34.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Payout Ratio 17.8%

UFPI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UFPI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3941.182 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Universal Forest Products. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Universal Forest Products. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UFPI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UFPI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Universal Forest Products, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Universal Forest Products.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UFPI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UFPI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Universal Forest Products.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Universal Forest Products. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UFPI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UFPI are equal to 11%.

Life of production assets of 10.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Universal Forest Products operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UFPI is equal to 13.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $959.476 million for Universal Forest Products - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 61.632 million for Universal Forest Products is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Universal Forest Products at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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▶ UFPI Board Approves Increased Semiannual Dividend   [Apr-19-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Universal Forest: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-18-18 04:19PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Universal Forest posts 4Q profit   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
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