Intrinsic value of Domtar - UFS

Previous Close

$44.81

  Intrinsic Value

$7.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-84%

Previous close

$44.81

 
Intrinsic value

$7.35

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of UFS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.80
  10.22
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
Revenue, $m
  5,714
  6,298
  6,909
  7,546
  8,211
  8,902
  9,622
  10,370
  11,147
  11,955
  12,795
  13,667
  14,575
  15,518
  16,500
  17,522
  18,587
  19,696
  20,852
  22,058
  23,316
  24,630
  26,002
  27,436
  28,935
  30,502
  32,141
  33,857
  35,653
  37,533
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,456
  6,007
  6,583
  7,185
  7,812
  8,465
  9,144
  9,850
  10,583
  11,346
  12,075
  12,898
  13,755
  14,645
  15,572
  16,536
  17,541
  18,587
  19,679
  20,817
  22,004
  23,244
  24,539
  25,892
  27,307
  28,786
  30,333
  31,952
  33,646
  35,420
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,456
  6,007
  6,583
  7,185
  7,812
  8,465
  9,144
  9,850
  10,583
  11,346
  12,075
  12,898
  13,755
  14,645
  15,572
  16,536
  17,541
  18,587
  19,679
  20,817
  22,004
  23,244
  24,539
  25,892
  27,307
  28,786
  30,333
  31,952
  33,646
  35,420
Operating income, $m
  258
  291
  325
  361
  399
  438
  478
  520
  564
  609
  720
  769
  820
  873
  929
  986
  1,046
  1,108
  1,173
  1,241
  1,312
  1,386
  1,463
  1,544
  1,628
  1,716
  1,809
  1,905
  2,006
  2,112
EBITDA, $m
  634
  699
  767
  837
  911
  988
  1,068
  1,151
  1,237
  1,327
  1,420
  1,517
  1,617
  1,722
  1,831
  1,944
  2,063
  2,186
  2,314
  2,448
  2,587
  2,733
  2,885
  3,045
  3,211
  3,385
  3,567
  3,757
  3,956
  4,165
Interest expense (income), $m
  64
  61
  77
  94
  111
  130
  149
  168
  189
  210
  233
  256
  280
  305
  331
  358
  386
  415
  445
  477
  510
  545
  581
  618
  658
  699
  742
  786
  833
  882
  934
Earnings before tax, $m
  197
  214
  232
  250
  269
  289
  310
  331
  354
  377
  464
  489
  515
  543
  571
  600
  631
  663
  696
  731
  767
  805
  845
  886
  930
  975
  1,022
  1,072
  1,124
  1,178
Tax expense, $m
  53
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  102
  125
  132
  139
  147
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
Net income, $m
  144
  156
  169
  183
  197
  211
  226
  242
  258
  275
  339
  357
  376
  396
  417
  438
  461
  484
  508
  534
  560
  588
  617
  647
  679
  712
  746
  783
  821
  860

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,778
  6,368
  6,986
  7,630
  8,302
  9,001
  9,729
  10,485
  11,271
  12,088
  12,937
  13,819
  14,737
  15,691
  16,684
  17,717
  18,793
  19,915
  21,084
  22,303
  23,576
  24,904
  26,292
  27,741
  29,257
  30,841
  32,499
  34,234
  36,049
  37,950
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,778
  6,368
  6,986
  7,630
  8,302
  9,001
  9,729
  10,485
  11,271
  12,088
  12,937
  13,819
  14,737
  15,691
  16,684
  17,717
  18,793
  19,915
  21,084
  22,303
  23,576
  24,904
  26,292
  27,741
  29,257
  30,841
  32,499
  34,234
  36,049
  37,950
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
  0.989
Average production assets, $m
  3,594
  3,961
  4,346
  4,747
  5,165
  5,600
  6,052
  6,523
  7,012
  7,520
  8,048
  8,597
  9,167
  9,761
  10,379
  11,021
  11,691
  12,389
  13,116
  13,874
  14,666
  15,492
  16,355
  17,257
  18,200
  19,186
  20,217
  21,296
  22,425
  23,608
Working capital, $m
  863
  951
  1,043
  1,139
  1,240
  1,344
  1,453
  1,566
  1,683
  1,805
  1,932
  2,064
  2,201
  2,343
  2,492
  2,646
  2,807
  2,974
  3,149
  3,331
  3,521
  3,719
  3,926
  4,143
  4,369
  4,606
  4,853
  5,112
  5,384
  5,667
Total debt, $m
  1,428
  1,738
  2,061
  2,399
  2,751
  3,118
  3,499
  3,895
  4,307
  4,735
  5,180
  5,642
  6,123
  6,623
  7,143
  7,685
  8,249
  8,836
  9,449
  10,088
  10,755
  11,451
  12,178
  12,937
  13,732
  14,562
  15,430
  16,339
  17,291
  18,287
Total liabilities, $m
  3,027
  3,337
  3,660
  3,998
  4,350
  4,717
  5,098
  5,494
  5,906
  6,334
  6,779
  7,241
  7,722
  8,222
  8,742
  9,284
  9,848
  10,435
  11,048
  11,687
  12,354
  13,050
  13,777
  14,536
  15,331
  16,161
  17,029
  17,938
  18,890
  19,886
Total equity, $m
  2,750
  3,031
  3,325
  3,632
  3,952
  4,285
  4,631
  4,991
  5,365
  5,754
  6,158
  6,578
  7,015
  7,469
  7,941
  8,433
  8,946
  9,479
  10,036
  10,616
  11,222
  11,854
  12,515
  13,205
  13,926
  14,680
  15,470
  16,295
  17,159
  18,064
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,777
  6,368
  6,985
  7,630
  8,302
  9,002
  9,729
  10,485
  11,271
  12,088
  12,937
  13,819
  14,737
  15,691
  16,683
  17,717
  18,794
  19,914
  21,084
  22,303
  23,576
  24,904
  26,292
  27,741
  29,257
  30,841
  32,499
  34,233
  36,049
  37,950
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.520
  0.570
  0.620
  0.660
  0.700
  0.730
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.870
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476
  0.476

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  144
  156
  169
  183
  197
  211
  226
  242
  258
  275
  339
  357
  376
  396
  417
  438
  461
  484
  508
  534
  560
  588
  617
  647
  679
  712
  746
  783
  821
  860
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  376
  408
  441
  476
  512
  550
  590
  630
  673
  717
  700
  748
  797
  849
  902
  958
  1,017
  1,077
  1,141
  1,206
  1,275
  1,347
  1,422
  1,501
  1,583
  1,668
  1,758
  1,852
  1,950
  2,053
Funds from operations, $m
  520
  564
  610
  659
  709
  761
  816
  872
  931
  992
  1,039
  1,105
  1,173
  1,245
  1,319
  1,397
  1,477
  1,561
  1,649
  1,740
  1,835
  1,935
  2,039
  2,148
  2,261
  2,380
  2,504
  2,634
  2,771
  2,913
Change in working capital, $m
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  161
  167
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  226
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
Cash from operations, $m
  436
  476
  518
  562
  609
  657
  707
  759
  814
  870
  912
  973
  1,036
  1,102
  1,171
  1,242
  1,316
  1,394
  1,474
  1,558
  1,645
  1,737
  1,832
  1,931
  2,035
  2,143
  2,257
  2,375
  2,499
  2,629
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -282
  -313
  -344
  -378
  -413
  -449
  -487
  -526
  -567
  -610
  -654
  -700
  -748
  -797
  -849
  -902
  -958
  -1,017
  -1,077
  -1,141
  -1,206
  -1,275
  -1,347
  -1,422
  -1,501
  -1,583
  -1,668
  -1,758
  -1,852
  -1,950
New CAPEX, $m
  -351
  -367
  -384
  -401
  -418
  -435
  -453
  -471
  -489
  -508
  -528
  -549
  -571
  -594
  -618
  -643
  -670
  -698
  -727
  -759
  -792
  -826
  -863
  -902
  -943
  -986
  -1,031
  -1,079
  -1,129
  -1,183
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -633
  -680
  -728
  -779
  -831
  -884
  -940
  -997
  -1,056
  -1,118
  -1,182
  -1,249
  -1,319
  -1,391
  -1,467
  -1,545
  -1,628
  -1,715
  -1,804
  -1,900
  -1,998
  -2,101
  -2,210
  -2,324
  -2,444
  -2,569
  -2,699
  -2,837
  -2,981
  -3,133
Free cash flow, $m
  -198
  -204
  -211
  -217
  -222
  -227
  -232
  -237
  -242
  -248
  -270
  -276
  -282
  -288
  -295
  -303
  -311
  -321
  -330
  -341
  -353
  -365
  -378
  -393
  -408
  -425
  -443
  -462
  -482
  -503
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  298
  309
  324
  338
  352
  367
  381
  396
  412
  428
  445
  462
  481
  500
  520
  542
  564
  588
  613
  639
  667
  696
  727
  760
  794
  830
  869
  909
  951
  996
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  123
  125
  125
  124
  123
  122
  120
  118
  116
  114
  65
  63
  60
  58
  56
  54
  52
  50
  48
  47
  45
  44
  44
  43
  43
  43
  43
  43
  44
  45
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  421
  434
  449
  462
  475
  489
  501
  514
  528
  542
  510
  525
  541
  558
  576
  596
  616
  638
  661
  686
  712
  740
  771
  803
  837
  873
  912
  952
  995
  1,041
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  224
  230
  238
  246
  253
  261
  269
  277
  285
  294
  240
  249
  259
  270
  281
  292
  304
  317
  330
  345
  360
  376
  392
  410
  428
  448
  469
  490
  513
  537
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -267
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -320
  -333
  -346
  -360
  -374
  -389
  -404
  -420
  -437
  -454
  -473
  -492
  -512
  -534
  -556
  -580
  -606
  -632
  -660
  -690
  -721
  -754
  -789
  -826
  -864
  -905
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -43
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -164
  -171
  -177
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -217
  -226
  -236
  -246
  -257
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -320
  -335
  -351
  -368
Discount rate, %
  4.70
  4.94
  5.18
  5.44
  5.71
  6.00
  6.30
  6.61
  6.94
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.77
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.09
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.71
  17.55
  18.42
  19.35
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -41
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -50
  -51
  -50
  -50
  -48
  -47
  -73
  -67
  -62
  -56
  -51
  -45
  -40
  -34
  -30
  -25
  -21
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.8
  92.1
  88.9
  86.1
  83.6
  81.4
  79.4
  77.7
  76.1
  74.7
  74.0
  73.3
  72.7
  72.2
  71.7
  71.3
  70.9
  70.6
  70.2
  70.0
  69.7
  69.5
  69.2
  69.0
  68.8
  68.6
  68.5
  68.3
  68.1
  68.0

Domtar Corporation designs, manufactures, markets and distributes a range of fiber-based products, including communication papers, specialty and packaging papers and absorbent hygiene products. The Company segments include Pulp and Paper and Personal Care. The Pulp and Paper segment consists of the design, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of communication, specialty and packaging papers, as well as softwood, fluff and hardwood market pulp. The Personal Care segment consists of the design, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of absorbent hygiene products. The Company is a marketer of uncoated freesheet paper in North America serving a range of customers, including merchants, retail outlets, stationers, printers, publishers, converters and end users. It is also a marketer and producer of a line of incontinence care products, as well as infant diapers. It has a network of wood fiber converting assets that produce paper grade, fluff and specialty pulp.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Domtar (UFS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.9
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.5%
Total Debt to Equity 48.3%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Total Capital 3.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Equity 4.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21%
EBITDA Margin 11.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Operating Margin 4.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Effective Tax Rate 18.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.6%
Payout Ratio 79.7%

UFS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UFS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5157 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Domtar. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Domtar. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UFS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.7%, whose default value for UFS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Domtar, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Domtar.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UFS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UFS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Domtar.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Domtar. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UFS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UFS are equal to 62.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Domtar operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UFS is equal to 15.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2483 million for Domtar - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.895 million for Domtar is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Domtar at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Domtar Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-08-18 09:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Domtar Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-01-18 08:55AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Domtar: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ 7 Valuable Low Price-to-Sales Stocks Worth Betting on Now   [Jul-30-18 02:05PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ 5 Great Basic Materials Stocks to Buy Ahead of Q2 Earnings   [Jul-23-18 11:00AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ 7 Low Price-to-Sales Stocks to Craft a Standout Portfolio   [Jul-19-18 01:33PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ How Domtar is taking the lead on hiring, training veterans   [May-24-18 07:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Top Ranked Income Stocks to Buy for May 21st   [May-21-18 09:15AM  Zacks]
▶ Domtar Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [May-09-18 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Calculating The Fair Value Of Domtar Corporation (NYSE:UFS)   [May-01-18 08:26AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Domtar: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:21AM  Associated Press]

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