Intrinsic value of Ultrapar Participacoes ADR - UGP

Previous Close

$10.22

  Intrinsic Value

$149.99

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  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$10.22

 
Intrinsic value

$149.99

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of UGP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  24,647
  25,214
  25,862
  26,590
  27,396
  28,280
  29,244
  30,286
  31,409
  32,615
  33,904
  35,280
  36,745
  38,302
  39,955
  41,706
  43,559
  45,519
  47,590
  49,777
  52,084
  54,517
  57,082
  59,784
  62,631
  65,627
  68,781
  72,100
  75,592
  79,265
Variable operating expenses, $m
  23,659
  24,201
  24,820
  25,515
  26,285
  27,130
  28,050
  29,046
  30,119
  31,271
  32,390
  33,705
  35,104
  36,592
  38,170
  39,843
  41,614
  43,486
  45,465
  47,554
  49,758
  52,083
  54,533
  57,115
  59,834
  62,696
  65,710
  68,881
  72,216
  75,725
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  23,659
  24,201
  24,820
  25,515
  26,285
  27,130
  28,050
  29,046
  30,119
  31,271
  32,390
  33,705
  35,104
  36,592
  38,170
  39,843
  41,614
  43,486
  45,465
  47,554
  49,758
  52,083
  54,533
  57,115
  59,834
  62,696
  65,710
  68,881
  72,216
  75,725
Operating income, $m
  988
  1,013
  1,042
  1,075
  1,111
  1,150
  1,193
  1,240
  1,290
  1,344
  1,514
  1,576
  1,641
  1,711
  1,784
  1,863
  1,945
  2,033
  2,125
  2,223
  2,326
  2,435
  2,549
  2,670
  2,797
  2,931
  3,072
  3,220
  3,376
  3,540
EBITDA, $m
  1,394
  1,426
  1,463
  1,504
  1,550
  1,600
  1,654
  1,713
  1,777
  1,845
  1,918
  1,996
  2,078
  2,167
  2,260
  2,359
  2,464
  2,575
  2,692
  2,816
  2,946
  3,084
  3,229
  3,382
  3,543
  3,712
  3,891
  4,078
  4,276
  4,484
Interest expense (income), $m
  334
  425
  454
  488
  526
  569
  616
  668
  725
  787
  853
  924
  1,000
  1,081
  1,168
  1,260
  1,357
  1,461
  1,570
  1,686
  1,808
  1,937
  2,073
  2,217
  2,368
  2,527
  2,695
  2,872
  3,058
  3,254
  3,460
Earnings before tax, $m
  563
  559
  555
  549
  542
  534
  525
  515
  503
  491
  590
  575
  560
  543
  525
  505
  485
  463
  440
  415
  389
  362
  333
  302
  270
  235
  199
  162
  122
  80
Tax expense, $m
  152
  151
  150
  148
  146
  144
  142
  139
  136
  133
  159
  155
  151
  147
  142
  136
  131
  125
  119
  112
  105
  98
  90
  82
  73
  64
  54
  44
  33
  22
Net income, $m
  411
  408
  405
  401
  396
  390
  383
  376
  367
  358
  431
  420
  408
  396
  383
  369
  354
  338
  321
  303
  284
  264
  243
  220
  197
  172
  146
  118
  89
  58

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,731
  8,932
  9,161
  9,419
  9,705
  10,018
  10,359
  10,728
  11,126
  11,553
  12,010
  12,497
  13,016
  13,568
  14,153
  14,774
  15,430
  16,124
  16,858
  17,633
  18,450
  19,312
  20,220
  21,178
  22,186
  23,247
  24,365
  25,540
  26,777
  28,078
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,731
  8,932
  9,161
  9,419
  9,705
  10,018
  10,359
  10,728
  11,126
  11,553
  12,010
  12,497
  13,016
  13,568
  14,153
  14,774
  15,430
  16,124
  16,858
  17,633
  18,450
  19,312
  20,220
  21,178
  22,186
  23,247
  24,365
  25,540
  26,777
  28,078
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
  2.823
Average production assets, $m
  2,465
  2,521
  2,586
  2,659
  2,740
  2,828
  2,924
  3,029
  3,141
  3,261
  3,390
  3,528
  3,675
  3,830
  3,995
  4,171
  4,356
  4,552
  4,759
  4,978
  5,208
  5,452
  5,708
  5,978
  6,263
  6,563
  6,878
  7,210
  7,559
  7,927
Working capital, $m
  1,503
  1,538
  1,578
  1,622
  1,671
  1,725
  1,784
  1,847
  1,916
  1,989
  2,068
  2,152
  2,241
  2,336
  2,437
  2,544
  2,657
  2,777
  2,903
  3,036
  3,177
  3,326
  3,482
  3,647
  3,820
  4,003
  4,196
  4,398
  4,611
  4,835
Total debt, $m
  1,824
  1,958
  2,111
  2,284
  2,475
  2,684
  2,913
  3,160
  3,426
  3,712
  4,017
  4,343
  4,691
  5,060
  5,451
  5,866
  6,305
  6,770
  7,261
  7,779
  8,326
  8,902
  9,510
  10,150
  10,825
  11,535
  12,282
  13,069
  13,897
  14,767
Total liabilities, $m
  5,841
  5,975
  6,129
  6,301
  6,492
  6,702
  6,930
  7,177
  7,443
  7,729
  8,035
  8,361
  8,708
  9,077
  9,469
  9,883
  10,323
  10,787
  11,278
  11,796
  12,343
  12,920
  13,527
  14,168
  14,842
  15,552
  16,300
  17,087
  17,914
  18,784
Total equity, $m
  2,890
  2,956
  3,032
  3,118
  3,212
  3,316
  3,429
  3,551
  3,683
  3,824
  3,975
  4,137
  4,308
  4,491
  4,685
  4,890
  5,107
  5,337
  5,580
  5,836
  6,107
  6,392
  6,693
  7,010
  7,344
  7,695
  8,065
  8,454
  8,863
  9,294
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,731
  8,931
  9,161
  9,419
  9,704
  10,018
  10,359
  10,728
  11,126
  11,553
  12,010
  12,498
  13,016
  13,568
  14,154
  14,773
  15,430
  16,124
  16,858
  17,632
  18,450
  19,312
  20,220
  21,178
  22,186
  23,247
  24,365
  25,541
  26,777
  28,078
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.630
  0.660
  0.700
  0.730
  0.770
  0.810
  0.850
  0.890
  0.930
  0.970
  1.010
  1.050
  1.090
  1.130
  1.160
  1.200
  1.230
  1.270
  1.300
  1.330
  1.360
  1.390
  1.420
  1.450
  1.470
  1.500
  1.520
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331
  0.331

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  411
  408
  405
  401
  396
  390
  383
  376
  367
  358
  431
  420
  408
  396
  383
  369
  354
  338
  321
  303
  284
  264
  243
  220
  197
  172
  146
  118
  89
  58
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  406
  413
  420
  429
  439
  449
  461
  473
  486
  501
  404
  420
  437
  456
  476
  496
  519
  542
  567
  593
  620
  649
  680
  712
  746
  781
  819
  858
  900
  944
Funds from operations, $m
  817
  821
  826
  830
  835
  839
  844
  849
  854
  859
  834
  840
  846
  852
  859
  865
  872
  880
  887
  896
  904
  913
  922
  932
  942
  953
  964
  976
  989
  1,002
Change in working capital, $m
  29
  35
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  126
  133
  141
  148
  156
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
Cash from operations, $m
  787
  787
  786
  786
  785
  785
  785
  785
  785
  786
  756
  756
  757
  757
  758
  758
  759
  760
  761
  762
  763
  765
  766
  767
  769
  770
  772
  774
  776
  778
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -289
  -293
  -300
  -308
  -317
  -326
  -337
  -348
  -361
  -374
  -388
  -404
  -420
  -437
  -456
  -476
  -496
  -519
  -542
  -567
  -593
  -620
  -649
  -680
  -712
  -746
  -781
  -819
  -858
  -900
New CAPEX, $m
  -38
  -57
  -65
  -73
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -121
  -129
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -185
  -196
  -207
  -219
  -231
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -315
  -332
  -349
  -367
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -327
  -350
  -365
  -381
  -398
  -414
  -433
  -452
  -473
  -495
  -517
  -542
  -567
  -593
  -621
  -651
  -681
  -715
  -749
  -786
  -824
  -863
  -905
  -950
  -997
  -1,046
  -1,096
  -1,151
  -1,207
  -1,267
Free cash flow, $m
  461
  436
  421
  405
  388
  371
  352
  333
  313
  291
  238
  215
  190
  164
  137
  108
  77
  46
  12
  -23
  -60
  -99
  -140
  -183
  -228
  -275
  -325
  -377
  -432
  -489
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  115
  134
  154
  172
  191
  210
  228
  247
  266
  286
  306
  326
  347
  369
  392
  415
  439
  464
  491
  518
  547
  577
  608
  640
  674
  710
  747
  787
  827
  870
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  21
  58
  96
  137
  179
  224
  271
  321
  372
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  115
  134
  154
  172
  191
  210
  228
  247
  266
  286
  306
  326
  347
  369
  392
  415
  439
  464
  491
  518
  547
  598
  666
  736
  811
  889
  971
  1,058
  1,148
  1,242
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  576
  571
  575
  577
  579
  580
  580
  580
  579
  577
  544
  541
  537
  533
  528
  523
  517
  510
  503
  495
  487
  499
  526
  554
  584
  615
  647
  681
  716
  753
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -57
  -66
  -76
  -85
  -95
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -132
  -141
  -151
  -161
  -172
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -271
  -285
  -301
  -317
  -334
  -351
  -370
  -389
  -409
  -431
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  519
  504
  499
  492
  485
  477
  468
  458
  447
  436
  393
  380
  365
  350
  334
  317
  299
  280
  260
  239
  216
  214
  225
  237
  250
  263
  277
  292
  307
  323
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  498
  462
  434
  405
  376
  346
  316
  286
  257
  228
  187
  162
  139
  118
  98
  81
  65
  52
  40
  30
  22
  18
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.5
  98.2
  96.3
  93.6
  90.5
  86.9
  82.9
  78.6
  74.2

Ultrapar Participacoes SA is a Brazil-based company primarily engaged in the automotive fuel retail. The Company operates in five segments: Gas distribution (Ultragaz), which distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to residential, commercial and industrial consumers in the South, Southeast and Northeast regions of Brazil; Fuel distribution (Ipiranga), which operates the distribution and marketing of gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles and lubricants, as well as provides related activities across the Brazilian territory; Chemicals (Oxiteno), which produces ethylene oxide, as well as its primary derivatives and fatty alcohols; Storage (Ultracargo), which operates liquid bulk terminals, primarily in the Southeast and Northeast regions of Brazil, and Drugstores (Extrafarma), which trades pharmaceutical, hygiene and beauty products through its drugstore chain in the states of Para and Piaui, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ultrapar Participacoes ADR (UGP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.2
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 17.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 104.9%
Total Debt to Equity 133.9%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Return On Total Capital 8.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Equity 19%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Asset Turnover 3.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 9.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
EBITDA Margin 5.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Operating Margin 4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Effective Tax Rate 30.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.6%
Payout Ratio 55.9%

UGP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UGP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $24164.1262458 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ultrapar Participacoes ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Ultrapar Participacoes ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UGP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UGP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ultrapar Participacoes ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ultrapar Participacoes ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UGP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UGP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 24.9% for Ultrapar Participacoes ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ultrapar Participacoes ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UGP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UGP are equal to 10%.

Life of production assets of 8.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ultrapar Participacoes ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UGP is equal to 6.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2833.36182422 million for Ultrapar Participacoes ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.178 million for Ultrapar Participacoes ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ultrapar Participacoes ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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