Intrinsic value of Universal Health Services Cl B - UHS

Previous Close

$131.27

  Intrinsic Value

$120.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-8%

Previous close

$131.27

 
Intrinsic value

$120.24

 
Up/down potential

-8%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of UHS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 11.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.60
  2.84
  3.06
  3.25
  3.43
  3.58
  3.72
  3.85
  3.97
  4.07
  4.16
  4.25
  4.32
  4.39
  4.45
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
Revenue, $m
  10,681
  10,984
  11,320
  11,687
  12,088
  12,521
  12,987
  13,487
  14,023
  14,593
  15,201
  15,846
  16,531
  17,257
  18,025
  18,837
  19,695
  20,601
  21,557
  22,565
  23,628
  24,747
  25,926
  27,167
  28,473
  29,848
  31,294
  32,815
  34,414
  36,096
Variable operating expenses, $m
  9,271
  9,524
  9,803
  10,109
  10,443
  10,803
  11,191
  11,608
  12,053
  12,528
  12,651
  13,188
  13,758
  14,362
  15,001
  15,677
  16,392
  17,146
  17,941
  18,780
  19,664
  20,596
  21,577
  22,610
  23,697
  24,841
  26,044
  27,310
  28,642
  30,041
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  9,271
  9,524
  9,803
  10,109
  10,443
  10,803
  11,191
  11,608
  12,053
  12,528
  12,651
  13,188
  13,758
  14,362
  15,001
  15,677
  16,392
  17,146
  17,941
  18,780
  19,664
  20,596
  21,577
  22,610
  23,697
  24,841
  26,044
  27,310
  28,642
  30,041
Operating income, $m
  1,409
  1,460
  1,516
  1,578
  1,645
  1,718
  1,796
  1,880
  1,970
  2,065
  2,550
  2,658
  2,773
  2,895
  3,024
  3,160
  3,304
  3,456
  3,616
  3,785
  3,963
  4,151
  4,349
  4,557
  4,776
  5,007
  5,249
  5,505
  5,773
  6,055
EBITDA, $m
  2,146
  2,207
  2,274
  2,348
  2,428
  2,515
  2,609
  2,710
  2,817
  2,932
  3,054
  3,183
  3,321
  3,467
  3,621
  3,784
  3,957
  4,139
  4,331
  4,533
  4,747
  4,972
  5,208
  5,458
  5,720
  5,996
  6,287
  6,592
  6,914
  7,252
Interest expense (income), $m
  107
  218
  226
  235
  245
  256
  268
  281
  295
  310
  326
  343
  361
  381
  401
  423
  446
  470
  496
  523
  552
  582
  614
  647
  682
  720
  759
  800
  843
  889
  937
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,191
  1,234
  1,281
  1,333
  1,389
  1,450
  1,515
  1,585
  1,660
  1,739
  2,207
  2,297
  2,392
  2,494
  2,601
  2,714
  2,834
  2,960
  3,093
  3,233
  3,382
  3,538
  3,702
  3,875
  4,057
  4,248
  4,450
  4,661
  4,884
  5,118
Tax expense, $m
  322
  333
  346
  360
  375
  391
  409
  428
  448
  470
  596
  620
  646
  673
  702
  733
  765
  799
  835
  873
  913
  955
  999
  1,046
  1,095
  1,147
  1,201
  1,259
  1,319
  1,382
Net income, $m
  869
  901
  935
  973
  1,014
  1,058
  1,106
  1,157
  1,211
  1,270
  1,611
  1,677
  1,746
  1,820
  1,898
  1,981
  2,068
  2,161
  2,258
  2,360
  2,469
  2,582
  2,702
  2,829
  2,961
  3,101
  3,248
  3,403
  3,565
  3,736

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  11,045
  11,359
  11,706
  12,086
  12,500
  12,948
  13,430
  13,948
  14,501
  15,091
  15,720
  16,387
  17,095
  17,846
  18,640
  19,480
  20,367
  21,304
  22,293
  23,335
  24,434
  25,591
  26,810
  28,094
  29,445
  30,866
  32,362
  33,935
  35,589
  37,328
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  11,045
  11,359
  11,706
  12,086
  12,500
  12,948
  13,430
  13,948
  14,501
  15,091
  15,720
  16,387
  17,095
  17,846
  18,640
  19,480
  20,367
  21,304
  22,293
  23,335
  24,434
  25,591
  26,810
  28,094
  29,445
  30,866
  32,362
  33,935
  35,589
  37,328
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
Average production assets, $m
  6,515
  6,700
  6,905
  7,129
  7,374
  7,638
  7,922
  8,227
  8,554
  8,902
  9,272
  9,666
  10,084
  10,527
  10,995
  11,491
  12,014
  12,567
  13,150
  13,765
  14,413
  15,096
  15,815
  16,572
  17,369
  18,207
  19,089
  20,017
  20,993
  22,019
Working capital, $m
  427
  439
  453
  467
  484
  501
  519
  539
  561
  584
  608
  634
  661
  690
  721
  753
  788
  824
  862
  903
  945
  990
  1,037
  1,087
  1,139
  1,194
  1,252
  1,313
  1,377
  1,444
Total debt, $m
  4,188
  4,356
  4,542
  4,746
  4,968
  5,208
  5,466
  5,744
  6,040
  6,357
  6,693
  7,051
  7,431
  7,833
  8,259
  8,709
  9,185
  9,687
  10,217
  10,775
  11,364
  11,985
  12,638
  13,326
  14,050
  14,812
  15,614
  16,457
  17,343
  18,276
Total liabilities, $m
  5,920
  6,088
  6,274
  6,478
  6,700
  6,940
  7,199
  7,476
  7,773
  8,089
  8,426
  8,784
  9,163
  9,565
  9,991
  10,441
  10,917
  11,419
  11,949
  12,508
  13,097
  13,717
  14,370
  15,058
  15,782
  16,544
  17,346
  18,189
  19,076
  20,008
Total equity, $m
  5,125
  5,270
  5,431
  5,608
  5,800
  6,008
  6,232
  6,472
  6,728
  7,002
  7,294
  7,604
  7,932
  8,280
  8,649
  9,039
  9,451
  9,885
  10,344
  10,828
  11,337
  11,874
  12,440
  13,036
  13,662
  14,322
  15,016
  15,746
  16,513
  17,320
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  11,045
  11,358
  11,705
  12,086
  12,500
  12,948
  13,431
  13,948
  14,501
  15,091
  15,720
  16,388
  17,095
  17,845
  18,640
  19,480
  20,368
  21,304
  22,293
  23,336
  24,434
  25,591
  26,810
  28,094
  29,444
  30,866
  32,362
  33,935
  35,589
  37,328
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  869
  901
  935
  973
  1,014
  1,058
  1,106
  1,157
  1,211
  1,270
  1,611
  1,677
  1,746
  1,820
  1,898
  1,981
  2,068
  2,161
  2,258
  2,360
  2,469
  2,582
  2,702
  2,829
  2,961
  3,101
  3,248
  3,403
  3,565
  3,736
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  737
  747
  758
  770
  783
  798
  813
  830
  847
  866
  504
  525
  548
  572
  598
  624
  653
  683
  715
  748
  783
  820
  859
  901
  944
  990
  1,037
  1,088
  1,141
  1,197
Funds from operations, $m
  1,606
  1,647
  1,693
  1,743
  1,797
  1,856
  1,919
  1,987
  2,059
  2,136
  2,115
  2,202
  2,294
  2,392
  2,496
  2,606
  2,721
  2,844
  2,973
  3,109
  3,252
  3,403
  3,562
  3,729
  3,905
  4,091
  4,286
  4,491
  4,706
  4,933
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
Cash from operations, $m
  1,595
  1,635
  1,680
  1,728
  1,781
  1,838
  1,900
  1,967
  2,037
  2,113
  2,090
  2,176
  2,267
  2,363
  2,465
  2,573
  2,687
  2,807
  2,934
  3,068
  3,209
  3,358
  3,515
  3,679
  3,853
  4,036
  4,228
  4,430
  4,642
  4,866
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -345
  -354
  -364
  -375
  -387
  -401
  -415
  -431
  -447
  -465
  -484
  -504
  -525
  -548
  -572
  -598
  -624
  -653
  -683
  -715
  -748
  -783
  -820
  -859
  -901
  -944
  -990
  -1,037
  -1,088
  -1,141
New CAPEX, $m
  -161
  -185
  -205
  -224
  -244
  -264
  -284
  -305
  -326
  -348
  -371
  -394
  -418
  -443
  -469
  -495
  -523
  -553
  -583
  -615
  -648
  -683
  -719
  -757
  -797
  -839
  -882
  -928
  -976
  -1,026
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -506
  -539
  -569
  -599
  -631
  -665
  -699
  -736
  -773
  -813
  -855
  -898
  -943
  -991
  -1,041
  -1,093
  -1,147
  -1,206
  -1,266
  -1,330
  -1,396
  -1,466
  -1,539
  -1,616
  -1,698
  -1,783
  -1,872
  -1,965
  -2,064
  -2,167
Free cash flow, $m
  1,088
  1,096
  1,111
  1,128
  1,149
  1,174
  1,201
  1,231
  1,264
  1,300
  1,236
  1,278
  1,324
  1,373
  1,425
  1,480
  1,539
  1,602
  1,668
  1,739
  1,813
  1,892
  1,975
  2,063
  2,156
  2,253
  2,356
  2,465
  2,579
  2,699
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  148
  168
  186
  204
  222
  240
  258
  277
  297
  316
  337
  358
  380
  402
  426
  450
  476
  502
  530
  559
  589
  620
  653
  688
  724
  762
  802
  843
  887
  932
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  148
  168
  186
  204
  222
  240
  258
  277
  297
  316
  337
  358
  380
  402
  426
  450
  476
  502
  530
  559
  589
  620
  653
  688
  724
  762
  802
  843
  887
  932
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,236
  1,264
  1,297
  1,332
  1,371
  1,414
  1,459
  1,508
  1,561
  1,616
  1,573
  1,636
  1,704
  1,775
  1,850
  1,930
  2,015
  2,104
  2,198
  2,297
  2,402
  2,512
  2,629
  2,751
  2,880
  3,015
  3,158
  3,308
  3,465
  3,631
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -135
  -146
  -161
  -177
  -192
  -208
  -224
  -240
  -257
  -274
  -292
  -310
  -329
  -348
  -369
  -390
  -412
  -435
  -459
  -484
  -510
  -537
  -566
  -596
  -627
  -660
  -694
  -730
  -768
  -807
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,101
  1,119
  1,136
  1,156
  1,179
  1,206
  1,235
  1,268
  1,304
  1,343
  1,281
  1,326
  1,375
  1,427
  1,482
  1,541
  1,603
  1,669
  1,739
  1,814
  1,892
  1,975
  2,063
  2,155
  2,253
  2,356
  2,464
  2,578
  2,698
  2,824
Discount rate, %
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.52
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,034
  980
  923
  865
  806
  747
  688
  630
  571
  514
  424
  374
  327
  283
  241
  203
  168
  137
  110
  87
  67
  51
  38
  27
  19
  13
  9
  6
  4
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Universal Health Services, Inc. is a holding company. The Company's principal business is owning and operating, through its subsidiaries, acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities, and behavioral healthcare facilities. The Company's segments include Acute Care Hospital Services, Behavioral Health Services and Other. As of February 28, 2017, the Company owned and/or operated 319 inpatient facilities, and 33 outpatient and other facilities, located in 37 states, Washington, District of Columbia, the United Kingdom, Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands. The Company's hospitals provide a range of services, such as oncology, diagnostic care, coronary care, pediatric services, pharmacy services and/or behavioral health services. As of February 28, 2017, its acute care facilities located in the United States included 26 inpatient acute care hospitals; four free-standing emergency departments, and four outpatient surgery/cancer care centers and one surgical hospital.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Universal Health Services Cl B (UHS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.1
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 17
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 42.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 88.9%
Total Debt to Equity 91.2%
Interest Coverage 12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Return On Total Capital 8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Equity 16%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 17.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Operating Margin 13.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Net Profit Margin 7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Effective Tax Rate 35.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Payout Ratio 5.6%

UHS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UHS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $10409.865 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Universal Health Services Cl B. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Universal Health Services Cl B. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UHS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.5%, whose default value for UHS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Universal Health Services Cl B, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Universal Health Services Cl B.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UHS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UHS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Universal Health Services Cl B.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Universal Health Services Cl B. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UHS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UHS are equal to 61%.

Life of production assets of 18.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Universal Health Services Cl B operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UHS is equal to 4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4989.514 million for Universal Health Services Cl B - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 86.088 million for Universal Health Services Cl B is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Universal Health Services Cl B at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $11.3 billion.

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