Intrinsic value of Unisys - UIS

Previous Close

$15.32

  Intrinsic Value

$9.27

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-40%

Previous close

$15.32

 
Intrinsic value

$9.27

 
Up/down potential

-40%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of UIS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,797
  2,861
  2,934
  3,017
  3,108
  3,209
  3,318
  3,436
  3,564
  3,701
  3,847
  4,003
  4,169
  4,346
  4,533
  4,732
  4,942
  5,165
  5,400
  5,648
  5,910
  6,186
  6,477
  6,783
  7,106
  7,446
  7,804
  8,181
  8,577
  8,994
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,275
  1,304
  1,337
  1,374
  1,415
  1,460
  1,509
  1,562
  1,620
  1,681
  1,729
  1,799
  1,874
  1,953
  2,037
  2,127
  2,221
  2,321
  2,427
  2,538
  2,656
  2,780
  2,911
  3,049
  3,194
  3,346
  3,507
  3,677
  3,855
  4,042
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  1,552
  1,587
  1,621
  1,657
  1,694
  1,731
  1,769
  1,808
  1,848
  1,888
  1,930
  1,972
  2,016
  2,060
  2,105
  2,152
  2,199
  2,247
  2,297
  2,347
  2,399
  2,452
  2,506
  2,561
  2,617
  2,675
  2,734
  2,794
  2,855
  2,918
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,827
  2,891
  2,958
  3,031
  3,109
  3,191
  3,278
  3,370
  3,468
  3,569
  3,659
  3,771
  3,890
  4,013
  4,142
  4,279
  4,420
  4,568
  4,724
  4,885
  5,055
  5,232
  5,417
  5,610
  5,811
  6,021
  6,241
  6,471
  6,710
  6,960
Operating income, $m
  -31
  -29
  -24
  -14
  0
  18
  40
  66
  97
  131
  188
  232
  280
  333
  391
  454
  522
  596
  676
  762
  855
  954
  1,060
  1,174
  1,296
  1,425
  1,563
  1,711
  1,867
  2,034
EBITDA, $m
  66
  69
  76
  88
  105
  126
  151
  180
  214
  253
  296
  344
  397
  455
  518
  586
  661
  741
  828
  921
  1,020
  1,127
  1,242
  1,364
  1,495
  1,634
  1,782
  1,940
  2,107
  2,286
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  72
  -103
  -97
  -90
  -82
  -74
  -64
  -54
  -43
  -31
  -19
  -5
  10
  25
  42
  59
  78
  97
  118
  140
  163
  188
  214
  241
  269
  300
  331
  365
  400
  437
Earnings before tax, $m
  -103
  74
  73
  76
  82
  92
  104
  120
  140
  163
  207
  237
  270
  308
  349
  395
  444
  499
  558
  622
  692
  766
  847
  933
  1,026
  1,126
  1,232
  1,346
  1,467
  1,597
Tax expense, $m
  0
  20
  20
  21
  22
  25
  28
  33
  38
  44
  56
  64
  73
  83
  94
  107
  120
  135
  151
  168
  187
  207
  229
  252
  277
  304
  333
  363
  396
  431
Net income, $m
  -103
  54
  53
  56
  60
  67
  76
  88
  102
  119
  151
  173
  197
  225
  255
  288
  324
  364
  407
  454
  505
  559
  618
  681
  749
  822
  899
  982
  1,071
  1,166

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,592
  2,651
  2,720
  2,796
  2,881
  2,974
  3,075
  3,185
  3,303
  3,430
  3,565
  3,710
  3,864
  4,028
  4,202
  4,386
  4,581
  4,787
  5,004
  5,234
  5,477
  5,733
  6,003
  6,287
  6,586
  6,901
  7,233
  7,582
  7,949
  8,335
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,592
  2,651
  2,720
  2,796
  2,881
  2,974
  3,075
  3,185
  3,303
  3,430
  3,565
  3,710
  3,864
  4,028
  4,202
  4,386
  4,581
  4,787
  5,004
  5,234
  5,477
  5,733
  6,003
  6,287
  6,586
  6,901
  7,233
  7,582
  7,949
  8,335
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
Average production assets, $m
  431
  441
  452
  465
  479
  494
  511
  529
  549
  570
  592
  616
  642
  669
  698
  729
  761
  795
  832
  870
  910
  953
  997
  1,045
  1,094
  1,147
  1,202
  1,260
  1,321
  1,385
Working capital, $m
  -341
  -349
  -358
  -368
  -379
  -391
  -405
  -419
  -435
  -451
  -469
  -488
  -509
  -530
  -553
  -577
  -603
  -630
  -659
  -689
  -721
  -755
  -790
  -828
  -867
  -908
  -952
  -998
  -1,046
  -1,097
Total debt, $m
  -920
  -866
  -805
  -736
  -660
  -576
  -485
  -386
  -280
  -166
  -44
  87
  225
  373
  529
  695
  870
  1,056
  1,252
  1,459
  1,677
  1,907
  2,150
  2,406
  2,675
  2,959
  3,257
  3,571
  3,902
  4,249
Total liabilities, $m
  2,333
  2,386
  2,448
  2,517
  2,593
  2,677
  2,768
  2,866
  2,973
  3,087
  3,209
  3,339
  3,478
  3,625
  3,781
  3,947
  4,123
  4,308
  4,504
  4,711
  4,929
  5,160
  5,402
  5,658
  5,928
  6,211
  6,510
  6,824
  7,154
  7,502
Total equity, $m
  259
  265
  272
  280
  288
  297
  308
  318
  330
  343
  357
  371
  386
  403
  420
  439
  458
  479
  500
  523
  548
  573
  600
  629
  659
  690
  723
  758
  795
  834
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,592
  2,651
  2,720
  2,797
  2,881
  2,974
  3,076
  3,184
  3,303
  3,430
  3,566
  3,710
  3,864
  4,028
  4,201
  4,386
  4,581
  4,787
  5,004
  5,234
  5,477
  5,733
  6,002
  6,287
  6,587
  6,901
  7,233
  7,582
  7,949
  8,336
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -3.550
  -3.270
  -2.960
  -2.630
  -2.290
  -1.940
  -1.580
  -1.210
  -0.850
  -0.480
  -0.120
  0.230
  0.580
  0.930
  1.260
  1.580
  1.900
  2.210
  2.500
  2.790
  3.060
  3.330
  3.580
  3.830
  4.060
  4.290
  4.500
  4.710
  4.910
  5.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -103
  54
  53
  56
  60
  67
  76
  88
  102
  119
  151
  173
  197
  225
  255
  288
  324
  364
  407
  454
  505
  559
  618
  681
  749
  822
  899
  982
  1,071
  1,166
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  96
  98
  100
  103
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  138
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
Funds from operations, $m
  -7
  152
  154
  158
  165
  175
  187
  202
  220
  240
  259
  285
  314
  346
  382
  421
  463
  509
  559
  612
  670
  733
  800
  871
  948
  1,030
  1,118
  1,212
  1,311
  1,418
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  160
  163
  168
  176
  187
  201
  217
  235
  257
  277
  304
  334
  368
  405
  445
  489
  536
  587
  643
  702
  766
  835
  909
  987
  1,072
  1,162
  1,257
  1,360
  1,468
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -77
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -138
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -240
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -87
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -240
  -251
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -304
Free cash flow, $m
  -86
  72
  71
  73
  78
  85
  94
  106
  120
  136
  150
  172
  197
  224
  254
  287
  324
  363
  406
  453
  504
  558
  617
  680
  748
  820
  898
  981
  1,070
  1,164
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,564
  54
  61
  69
  76
  84
  91
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
  147
  156
  166
  175
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  269
  284
  299
  314
  330
  348
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1,717
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  153
  54
  61
  69
  76
  84
  91
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
  147
  156
  166
  175
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  269
  284
  299
  314
  330
  348
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  66
  125
  133
  142
  154
  168
  185
  204
  226
  250
  272
  302
  335
  371
  410
  453
  499
  549
  602
  660
  722
  789
  860
  936
  1,017
  1,104
  1,196
  1,295
  1,400
  1,512
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,717
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -1,650
  119
  126
  134
  146
  159
  175
  193
  214
  238
  259
  288
  320
  355
  393
  435
  480
  528
  581
  637
  698
  763
  833
  907
  987
  1,072
  1,163
  1,260
  1,363
  1,473
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -1,582
  109
  109
  111
  113
  115
  118
  121
  123
  125
  123
  123
  122
  119
  115
  110
  104
  97
  89
  81
  72
  63
  55
  46
  38
  31
  25
  19
  15
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Unisys Corporation (Unisys) is an information technology (IT) company. The Company operates through two segments: Services and Technology. The Company offers services, which include cloud and infrastructure services, application services and business process outsourcing services. In technology segment, the Company designs and develops software, servers and related products. The Company provides a range of data center, infrastructure management and cloud computing offerings to help clients virtualize and automate their data-center environments. Its technology offerings include ClearPath Forward software operating system, the Unisys Stealth family of security software and industry-focused software such as Digital Investigator, middleware and servers. Unisys Stealth consists of six solutions: Stealth(core), Stealth(analytics), Stealth(aware), Stealth(cloud), Stealth(identity) and Stealth(mobile). Digital Investigator is a browser-based application for total information management.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Unisys (UIS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -16
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book -0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -11.9%
Total Debt to Equity -18.4%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -4.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Equity 3.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
EBITDA Margin 7.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Operating Margin 1.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Net Profit Margin -1.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 276.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 87.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

UIS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UIS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2741.8 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Unisys. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Unisys. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UIS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UIS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Unisys, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Unisys.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UIS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 45.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1519 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UIS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.2% for Unisys.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Unisys. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UIS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UIS are equal to 15.4%.

Life of production assets of 5.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Unisys operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UIS is equal to -12.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1354.7 million for Unisys - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.1 million for Unisys is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Unisys at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Could Red Hat deal be a 'distraction' for IBM? Unisys CEO hopes so   [Nov-13-18 08:27AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Unisys: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for November 5th   [Nov-05-18 10:34AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for November 2nd   [Nov-02-18 10:37AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for October 5th   [Oct-05-18 11:24AM  Zacks]
▶ Game on: Navy releases RFP for part of NGEN-R contract   [Sep-18-18 02:04PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Why Shares of Unisys Corp. Jumped Today   [Aug-29-18 12:46PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Unisys Corp. Stock Closed 13.2% Higher Today   [Aug-01-18 06:11PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Unisys: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Unisys Corporation (NYSE:UIS) Could Be A Buy   [Jun-27-18 11:01AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Invent, reinvent, repeat: How Unisys evolved from typewriters to machine learning   [May-30-18 07:24AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Unisys: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-01-18 07:10PM  Associated Press]

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