Intrinsic value of United Natural Foods - UNFI

Previous Close

$33.30

  Intrinsic Value

$13.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

Previous close

$33.30

 
Intrinsic value

$13.43

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of UNFI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.02
  8.61
  8.25
  7.93
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
Revenue, $m
  10,369
  11,522
  12,733
  14,000
  15,325
  16,707
  18,146
  19,643
  21,200
  22,819
  24,501
  26,249
  28,065
  29,954
  31,917
  33,960
  36,086
  38,299
  40,605
  43,009
  45,515
  48,129
  50,858
  53,707
  56,684
  59,795
  63,047
  66,449
  70,008
  73,732
Variable operating expenses, $m
  10,092
  11,208
  12,380
  13,607
  14,889
  16,226
  17,619
  19,068
  20,575
  22,141
  23,711
  25,402
  27,160
  28,988
  30,888
  32,865
  34,922
  37,064
  39,296
  41,622
  44,047
  46,577
  49,218
  51,975
  54,856
  57,866
  61,014
  64,306
  67,750
  71,355
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  10,092
  11,208
  12,380
  13,607
  14,889
  16,226
  17,619
  19,068
  20,575
  22,141
  23,711
  25,402
  27,160
  28,988
  30,888
  32,865
  34,922
  37,064
  39,296
  41,622
  44,047
  46,577
  49,218
  51,975
  54,856
  57,866
  61,014
  64,306
  67,750
  71,355
Operating income, $m
  276
  314
  353
  394
  436
  481
  527
  576
  626
  678
  790
  846
  905
  966
  1,029
  1,095
  1,164
  1,235
  1,309
  1,387
  1,468
  1,552
  1,640
  1,732
  1,828
  1,928
  2,033
  2,143
  2,258
  2,378
EBITDA, $m
  407
  452
  499
  549
  601
  655
  712
  771
  832
  895
  961
  1,030
  1,101
  1,175
  1,252
  1,332
  1,416
  1,502
  1,593
  1,687
  1,785
  1,888
  1,995
  2,107
  2,224
  2,346
  2,473
  2,607
  2,746
  2,892
Interest expense (income), $m
  17
  21
  28
  37
  45
  54
  63
  73
  83
  93
  104
  116
  127
  140
  152
  166
  179
  194
  209
  224
  240
  257
  275
  293
  312
  332
  353
  375
  398
  421
  446
Earnings before tax, $m
  256
  285
  316
  349
  382
  418
  454
  493
  532
  574
  674
  719
  765
  814
  864
  916
  970
  1,026
  1,085
  1,147
  1,211
  1,277
  1,347
  1,420
  1,496
  1,575
  1,658
  1,745
  1,836
  1,931
Tax expense, $m
  69
  77
  85
  94
  103
  113
  123
  133
  144
  155
  182
  194
  207
  220
  233
  247
  262
  277
  293
  310
  327
  345
  364
  383
  404
  425
  448
  471
  496
  521
Net income, $m
  187
  208
  231
  254
  279
  305
  332
  360
  389
  419
  492
  525
  559
  594
  630
  668
  708
  749
  792
  837
  884
  932
  983
  1,036
  1,092
  1,150
  1,211
  1,274
  1,340
  1,410

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,227
  3,586
  3,963
  4,357
  4,770
  5,200
  5,648
  6,114
  6,598
  7,102
  7,626
  8,170
  8,735
  9,323
  9,934
  10,570
  11,231
  11,920
  12,638
  13,386
  14,166
  14,979
  15,829
  16,716
  17,642
  18,610
  19,623
  20,681
  21,789
  22,948
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,227
  3,586
  3,963
  4,357
  4,770
  5,200
  5,648
  6,114
  6,598
  7,102
  7,626
  8,170
  8,735
  9,323
  9,934
  10,570
  11,231
  11,920
  12,638
  13,386
  14,166
  14,979
  15,829
  16,716
  17,642
  18,610
  19,623
  20,681
  21,789
  22,948
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
Average production assets, $m
  1,006
  1,118
  1,235
  1,358
  1,487
  1,621
  1,760
  1,905
  2,056
  2,213
  2,377
  2,546
  2,722
  2,906
  3,096
  3,294
  3,500
  3,715
  3,939
  4,172
  4,415
  4,669
  4,933
  5,210
  5,498
  5,800
  6,116
  6,446
  6,791
  7,152
Working capital, $m
  1,068
  1,187
  1,311
  1,442
  1,578
  1,721
  1,869
  2,023
  2,184
  2,350
  2,524
  2,704
  2,891
  3,085
  3,287
  3,498
  3,717
  3,945
  4,182
  4,430
  4,688
  4,957
  5,238
  5,532
  5,838
  6,159
  6,494
  6,844
  7,211
  7,594
Total debt, $m
  527
  676
  833
  998
  1,170
  1,349
  1,536
  1,730
  1,932
  2,143
  2,361
  2,588
  2,823
  3,069
  3,323
  3,588
  3,864
  4,152
  4,451
  4,763
  5,088
  5,427
  5,782
  6,151
  6,538
  6,941
  7,364
  7,805
  8,267
  8,750
Total liabilities, $m
  1,346
  1,495
  1,653
  1,817
  1,989
  2,168
  2,355
  2,549
  2,751
  2,962
  3,180
  3,407
  3,642
  3,888
  4,142
  4,408
  4,683
  4,971
  5,270
  5,582
  5,907
  6,246
  6,601
  6,970
  7,357
  7,760
  8,183
  8,624
  9,086
  9,569
Total equity, $m
  1,881
  2,091
  2,310
  2,540
  2,781
  3,031
  3,293
  3,564
  3,847
  4,140
  4,446
  4,763
  5,092
  5,435
  5,791
  6,162
  6,548
  6,949
  7,368
  7,804
  8,259
  8,733
  9,228
  9,745
  10,285
  10,850
  11,440
  12,057
  12,703
  13,379
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,227
  3,586
  3,963
  4,357
  4,770
  5,199
  5,648
  6,113
  6,598
  7,102
  7,626
  8,170
  8,734
  9,323
  9,933
  10,570
  11,231
  11,920
  12,638
  13,386
  14,166
  14,979
  15,829
  16,715
  17,642
  18,610
  19,623
  20,681
  21,789
  22,948
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.280
  0.320
  0.360
  0.390
  0.420
  0.450
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  187
  208
  231
  254
  279
  305
  332
  360
  389
  419
  492
  525
  559
  594
  630
  668
  708
  749
  792
  837
  884
  932
  983
  1,036
  1,092
  1,150
  1,211
  1,274
  1,340
  1,410
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  130
  138
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  195
  206
  217
  171
  183
  196
  209
  223
  237
  252
  267
  283
  300
  318
  336
  355
  375
  396
  417
  440
  464
  489
  515
Funds from operations, $m
  317
  347
  378
  410
  444
  479
  516
  555
  594
  636
  663
  708
  755
  803
  853
  905
  960
  1,017
  1,076
  1,137
  1,201
  1,268
  1,338
  1,411
  1,488
  1,567
  1,651
  1,738
  1,829
  1,924
Change in working capital, $m
  113
  119
  125
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  173
  180
  187
  195
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  248
  258
  269
  281
  293
  307
  320
  335
  350
  367
  384
Cash from operations, $m
  204
  228
  253
  280
  308
  337
  368
  400
  434
  469
  490
  528
  567
  608
  651
  695
  741
  789
  838
  890
  943
  999
  1,057
  1,118
  1,181
  1,247
  1,316
  1,387
  1,462
  1,541
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -65
  -72
  -80
  -89
  -98
  -107
  -117
  -127
  -137
  -148
  -159
  -171
  -183
  -196
  -209
  -223
  -237
  -252
  -267
  -283
  -300
  -318
  -336
  -355
  -375
  -396
  -417
  -440
  -464
  -489
New CAPEX, $m
  -104
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -243
  -254
  -265
  -276
  -289
  -302
  -315
  -330
  -345
  -361
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -169
  -184
  -197
  -212
  -226
  -241
  -257
  -272
  -288
  -305
  -322
  -341
  -359
  -379
  -399
  -421
  -443
  -467
  -491
  -516
  -543
  -572
  -601
  -631
  -664
  -698
  -732
  -770
  -809
  -850
Free cash flow, $m
  35
  44
  55
  68
  81
  96
  112
  128
  146
  164
  168
  187
  208
  229
  251
  274
  298
  322
  347
  373
  400
  428
  457
  486
  517
  549
  583
  617
  653
  691
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  141
  150
  157
  165
  172
  179
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  299
  312
  325
  339
  354
  370
  386
  404
  422
  441
  462
  483
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  13
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  154
  151
  157
  165
  172
  179
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  299
  312
  325
  339
  354
  370
  386
  404
  422
  441
  462
  483
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  189
  194
  212
  232
  253
  275
  299
  323
  348
  374
  386
  414
  444
  474
  506
  539
  574
  609
  646
  685
  725
  767
  811
  856
  904
  953
  1,005
  1,059
  1,115
  1,174
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -200
  -209
  -220
  -230
  -240
  -251
  -261
  -272
  -283
  -294
  -305
  -317
  -330
  -343
  -356
  -371
  -386
  -402
  -418
  -436
  -455
  -474
  -495
  -517
  -540
  -564
  -590
  -617
  -646
  -676
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -11
  -15
  -8
  2
  13
  25
  38
  51
  66
  81
  81
  97
  114
  132
  150
  169
  188
  208
  228
  249
  271
  293
  316
  339
  364
  389
  415
  442
  470
  499
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -10
  -14
  -7
  2
  10
  18
  25
  32
  38
  42
  38
  41
  43
  44
  44
  43
  41
  38
  35
  32
  28
  24
  21
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2

United Natural Foods, Inc. is a distributor and retailer of natural, organic and specialty products. The Company's segments include Wholesale and Other. The Wholesale segment is engaged in the national distribution of natural, organic and specialty foods, produce and related products in the United States and Canada. The Other segment includes a retail division, which engages in the sale of natural foods and related products to the general public through retail storefronts on the east coast of the United States; a manufacturing division, which engages in importing, roasting and packaging of nuts, seeds, dried fruit and snack items, and its branded product lines. Its operations consist of three operating divisions: Wholesale Division, Retail Division, and Manufacturing and Branded Products divisions. As of July 30, 2016, the Company had offered 100,000 natural, organic and specialty foods, and non-food products, consisting of national, regional and private-label brands.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  United Natural Foods (UNFI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 36.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -17.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 22.2%
Total Debt to Equity 22.9%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Equity 8.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 3.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
EBITDA Margin 3.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Operating Margin 2.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Effective Tax Rate 39.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

UNFI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UNFI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $9274.471 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by United Natural Foods. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of United Natural Foods. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UNFI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UNFI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of United Natural Foods, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of United Natural Foods.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UNFI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UNFI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for United Natural Foods.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for United Natural Foods. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UNFI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UNFI are equal to 9.7%.

Life of production assets of 13.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in United Natural Foods operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UNFI is equal to 10.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1681.921 million for United Natural Foods - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.593 million for United Natural Foods is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of United Natural Foods at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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