Intrinsic value of United Natural Foods - UNFI

Previous Close

$43.21

  Intrinsic Value

$25.90

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-40%

Previous close

$43.21

 
Intrinsic value

$25.90

 
Up/down potential

-40%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of UNFI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
Revenue, $m
  10,155
  11,074
  12,031
  13,028
  14,064
  15,141
  16,260
  17,423
  18,631
  19,888
  21,194
  22,553
  23,967
  25,440
  26,974
  28,572
  30,239
  31,978
  33,793
  35,688
  37,668
  39,737
  41,900
  44,162
  46,528
  49,005
  51,598
  54,313
  57,156
  60,135
Variable operating expenses, $m
  9,885
  10,775
  11,701
  12,665
  13,668
  14,710
  15,793
  16,919
  18,088
  19,304
  20,510
  21,826
  23,194
  24,619
  26,104
  27,651
  29,264
  30,947
  32,703
  34,537
  36,453
  38,455
  40,548
  42,737
  45,027
  47,424
  49,933
  52,561
  55,313
  58,195
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  9,885
  10,775
  11,701
  12,665
  13,668
  14,710
  15,793
  16,919
  18,088
  19,304
  20,510
  21,826
  23,194
  24,619
  26,104
  27,651
  29,264
  30,947
  32,703
  34,537
  36,453
  38,455
  40,548
  42,737
  45,027
  47,424
  49,933
  52,561
  55,313
  58,195
Operating income, $m
  270
  299
  330
  362
  396
  430
  466
  504
  543
  583
  684
  727
  773
  821
  870
  922
  975
  1,031
  1,090
  1,151
  1,215
  1,282
  1,351
  1,424
  1,501
  1,581
  1,664
  1,752
  1,844
  1,940
EBITDA, $m
  459
  500
  543
  588
  635
  684
  734
  787
  841
  898
  957
  1,018
  1,082
  1,149
  1,218
  1,290
  1,365
  1,444
  1,526
  1,611
  1,701
  1,794
  1,892
  1,994
  2,101
  2,213
  2,330
  2,452
  2,581
  2,715
Interest expense (income), $m
  17
  21
  27
  33
  40
  47
  54
  62
  70
  78
  86
  95
  104
  114
  124
  134
  145
  156
  168
  180
  193
  206
  220
  234
  249
  265
  282
  299
  317
  336
  356
Earnings before tax, $m
  249
  272
  297
  322
  349
  376
  405
  434
  465
  497
  588
  623
  659
  697
  736
  777
  819
  864
  910
  958
  1,009
  1,062
  1,117
  1,175
  1,235
  1,299
  1,365
  1,434
  1,507
  1,583
Tax expense, $m
  67
  74
  80
  87
  94
  102
  109
  117
  126
  134
  159
  168
  178
  188
  199
  210
  221
  233
  246
  259
  272
  287
  302
  317
  334
  351
  369
  387
  407
  427
Net income, $m
  182
  199
  217
  235
  254
  274
  295
  317
  339
  363
  430
  455
  481
  509
  537
  567
  598
  631
  664
  700
  737
  775
  816
  858
  902
  948
  996
  1,047
  1,100
  1,156

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,161
  3,447
  3,745
  4,055
  4,377
  4,712
  5,061
  5,423
  5,799
  6,190
  6,596
  7,019
  7,459
  7,918
  8,395
  8,893
  9,412
  9,953
  10,518
  11,107
  11,724
  12,367
  13,041
  13,745
  14,481
  15,252
  16,059
  16,904
  17,789
  18,716
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,161
  3,447
  3,745
  4,055
  4,377
  4,712
  5,061
  5,423
  5,799
  6,190
  6,596
  7,019
  7,459
  7,918
  8,395
  8,893
  9,412
  9,953
  10,518
  11,107
  11,724
  12,367
  13,041
  13,745
  14,481
  15,252
  16,059
  16,904
  17,789
  18,716
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
  3.213
Average production assets, $m
  1,310
  1,429
  1,552
  1,681
  1,814
  1,953
  2,098
  2,248
  2,403
  2,566
  2,734
  2,909
  3,092
  3,282
  3,480
  3,686
  3,901
  4,125
  4,359
  4,604
  4,859
  5,126
  5,405
  5,697
  6,002
  6,322
  6,656
  7,006
  7,373
  7,757
Working capital, $m
  548
  598
  650
  703
  759
  818
  878
  941
  1,006
  1,074
  1,144
  1,218
  1,294
  1,374
  1,457
  1,543
  1,633
  1,727
  1,825
  1,927
  2,034
  2,146
  2,263
  2,385
  2,513
  2,646
  2,786
  2,933
  3,086
  3,247
Total debt, $m
  499
  618
  743
  872
  1,006
  1,146
  1,291
  1,442
  1,599
  1,762
  1,932
  2,108
  2,292
  2,483
  2,682
  2,889
  3,106
  3,331
  3,567
  3,813
  4,070
  4,338
  4,619
  4,913
  5,220
  5,541
  5,878
  6,230
  6,599
  6,986
Total liabilities, $m
  1,318
  1,437
  1,561
  1,691
  1,825
  1,965
  2,110
  2,261
  2,418
  2,581
  2,751
  2,927
  3,111
  3,302
  3,501
  3,708
  3,925
  4,150
  4,386
  4,632
  4,889
  5,157
  5,438
  5,732
  6,039
  6,360
  6,697
  7,049
  7,418
  7,805
Total equity, $m
  1,843
  2,009
  2,183
  2,364
  2,552
  2,747
  2,950
  3,161
  3,381
  3,609
  3,846
  4,092
  4,349
  4,616
  4,894
  5,184
  5,487
  5,802
  6,132
  6,476
  6,835
  7,210
  7,603
  8,013
  8,443
  8,892
  9,362
  9,855
  10,371
  10,912
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,161
  3,446
  3,744
  4,055
  4,377
  4,712
  5,060
  5,422
  5,799
  6,190
  6,597
  7,019
  7,460
  7,918
  8,395
  8,892
  9,412
  9,952
  10,518
  11,108
  11,724
  12,367
  13,041
  13,745
  14,482
  15,252
  16,059
  16,904
  17,789
  18,717
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.270
  0.310
  0.340
  0.370
  0.390
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583
  0.583

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  182
  199
  217
  235
  254
  274
  295
  317
  339
  363
  430
  455
  481
  509
  537
  567
  598
  631
  664
  700
  737
  775
  816
  858
  902
  948
  996
  1,047
  1,100
  1,156
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  189
  201
  213
  226
  239
  253
  268
  283
  298
  315
  273
  291
  309
  328
  348
  369
  390
  413
  436
  460
  486
  513
  541
  570
  600
  632
  666
  701
  737
  776
Funds from operations, $m
  371
  400
  430
  461
  494
  528
  563
  600
  638
  677
  703
  746
  790
  837
  885
  936
  988
  1,043
  1,100
  1,160
  1,223
  1,288
  1,356
  1,427
  1,502
  1,580
  1,662
  1,748
  1,837
  1,932
Change in working capital, $m
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  73
  76
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
Cash from operations, $m
  323
  350
  378
  407
  438
  470
  503
  537
  573
  610
  632
  672
  714
  757
  802
  849
  898
  949
  1,002
  1,058
  1,116
  1,176
  1,239
  1,305
  1,374
  1,447
  1,522
  1,601
  1,684
  1,771
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -119
  -131
  -143
  -155
  -168
  -181
  -195
  -210
  -225
  -240
  -257
  -273
  -291
  -309
  -328
  -348
  -369
  -390
  -413
  -436
  -460
  -486
  -513
  -541
  -570
  -600
  -632
  -666
  -701
  -737
New CAPEX, $m
  -117
  -119
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -175
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -234
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -279
  -292
  -305
  -319
  -334
  -350
  -367
  -384
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -236
  -250
  -266
  -284
  -302
  -320
  -339
  -360
  -381
  -402
  -426
  -448
  -473
  -499
  -526
  -554
  -584
  -614
  -647
  -680
  -715
  -753
  -792
  -833
  -875
  -919
  -966
  -1,016
  -1,068
  -1,121
Free cash flow, $m
  87
  100
  112
  124
  136
  149
  163
  177
  192
  207
  207
  224
  241
  258
  276
  295
  315
  335
  356
  377
  400
  423
  448
  473
  499
  527
  555
  585
  616
  649
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  113
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  176
  184
  191
  199
  207
  216
  226
  236
  246
  257
  269
  281
  294
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  113
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  176
  184
  191
  199
  207
  216
  226
  236
  246
  257
  269
  281
  294
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  200
  220
  236
  253
  271
  289
  308
  328
  349
  370
  377
  400
  424
  449
  475
  503
  531
  560
  591
  623
  657
  692
  728
  767
  806
  848
  892
  938
  986
  1,036
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -316
  -329
  -344
  -359
  -375
  -392
  -410
  -429
  -449
  -470
  -493
  -516
  -541
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  140
  147
  155
  163
  171
Cash available for distribution, $m
  40
  53
  62
  72
  83
  94
  105
  117
  129
  142
  140
  153
  168
  182
  197
  213
  228
  245
  262
  279
  298
  316
  336
  356
  377
  399
  421
  445
  470
  495
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  38
  48
  54
  59
  64
  68
  71
  73
  74
  75
  66
  66
  64
  61
  58
  54
  50
  45
  40
  36
  31
  26
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

United Natural Foods, Inc. is a distributor and retailer of natural, organic and specialty products. The Company's segments include Wholesale and Other. The Wholesale segment is engaged in the national distribution of natural, organic and specialty foods, produce and related products in the United States and Canada. The Other segment includes a retail division, which engages in the sale of natural foods and related products to the general public through retail storefronts on the east coast of the United States; a manufacturing division, which engages in importing, roasting and packaging of nuts, seeds, dried fruit and snack items, and its branded product lines. Its operations consist of three operating divisions: Wholesale Division, Retail Division, and Manufacturing and Branded Products divisions. As of July 30, 2016, the Company had offered 100,000 natural, organic and specialty foods, and non-food products, consisting of national, regional and private-label brands.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  United Natural Foods (UNFI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.8
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 36.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -17.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 22.2%
Total Debt to Equity 22.9%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Equity 8.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 3.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
EBITDA Margin 3.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Operating Margin 2.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Effective Tax Rate 39.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

UNFI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UNFI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $9274 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by United Natural Foods. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of United Natural Foods. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UNFI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UNFI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of United Natural Foods, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of United Natural Foods.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UNFI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UNFI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for United Natural Foods.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for United Natural Foods. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UNFI stock is equal to 0.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UNFI are equal to 12.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in United Natural Foods operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UNFI is equal to 5.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1682 million for United Natural Foods - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51 million for United Natural Foods is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of United Natural Foods at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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