Intrinsic value of UQM Technologies - UQM

Previous Close

$1.17

  Intrinsic Value

$4.27

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+265%

Previous close

$1.17

 
Intrinsic value

$4.27

 
Up/down potential

+265%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of UQM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  51.00
  46.40
  42.26
  38.53
  35.18
  32.16
  29.45
  27.00
  24.80
  22.82
  21.04
  19.44
  17.99
  16.69
  15.52
  14.47
  13.52
  12.67
  11.90
  11.21
  10.59
  10.03
  9.53
  9.08
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
Revenue, $m
  12
  17
  24
  34
  46
  61
  78
  100
  124
  153
  185
  221
  260
  304
  351
  402
  456
  514
  575
  639
  707
  778
  852
  929
  1,010
  1,094
  1,181
  1,272
  1,366
  1,464
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6
  9
  12
  17
  23
  30
  39
  49
  62
  76
  92
  109
  129
  151
  174
  199
  226
  255
  285
  317
  351
  386
  423
  461
  501
  543
  586
  631
  677
  726
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
Total operating expenses, $m
  16
  19
  23
  28
  34
  41
  51
  61
  74
  88
  105
  122
  142
  165
  188
  213
  240
  270
  300
  332
  367
  402
  439
  478
  518
  561
  604
  649
  696
  745
Operating income, $m
  -4
  -2
  2
  6
  12
  19
  28
  38
  50
  64
  80
  98
  118
  140
  163
  188
  215
  244
  275
  307
  341
  376
  413
  452
  492
  534
  577
  623
  670
  719
EBITDA, $m
  -4
  -1
  3
  8
  14
  22
  32
  43
  57
  72
  89
  109
  131
  154
  180
  208
  238
  269
  303
  338
  375
  414
  455
  497
  541
  587
  635
  685
  736
  790
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  24
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  50
  54
  59
  63
Earnings before tax, $m
  -5
  -2
  1
  5
  10
  17
  25
  35
  46
  59
  73
  90
  108
  128
  149
  172
  197
  223
  251
  280
  311
  343
  377
  412
  449
  487
  527
  568
  611
  656
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  16
  20
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  53
  60
  68
  76
  84
  93
  102
  111
  121
  132
  142
  153
  165
  177
Net income, $m
  -5
  -2
  1
  4
  8
  13
  18
  25
  34
  43
  54
  66
  79
  93
  109
  126
  144
  163
  183
  205
  227
  251
  275
  301
  328
  356
  385
  415
  446
  479

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  15
  22
  32
  44
  60
  79
  102
  130
  162
  199
  241
  288
  340
  396
  458
  524
  595
  671
  750
  835
  923
  1,016
  1,112
  1,213
  1,319
  1,428
  1,542
  1,660
  1,783
  1,911
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  15
  22
  32
  44
  60
  79
  102
  130
  162
  199
  241
  288
  340
  396
  458
  524
  595
  671
  750
  835
  923
  1,016
  1,112
  1,213
  1,319
  1,428
  1,542
  1,660
  1,783
  1,911
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.800
  0.773
  0.750
  0.773
  0.767
  0.772
  0.765
  0.769
  0.765
  0.769
  0.768
  0.767
  0.765
  0.768
  0.766
  0.767
  0.766
  0.766
  0.767
  0.765
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
Average production assets, $m
  8
  12
  17
  23
  31
  42
  54
  68
  85
  105
  127
  152
  179
  209
  241
  276
  313
  353
  395
  439
  486
  534
  585
  639
  694
  751
  811
  874
  938
  1,006
Working capital, $m
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  42
  48
  54
  61
  68
  76
  84
  93
  101
  111
  120
  130
  141
  151
  163
  174
Total debt, $m
  6
  9
  14
  20
  28
  38
  50
  64
  81
  100
  121
  145
  172
  201
  233
  267
  303
  342
  383
  426
  471
  519
  568
  620
  674
  730
  789
  849
  913
  978
Total liabilities, $m
  8
  12
  16
  23
  31
  41
  52
  67
  83
  102
  124
  148
  174
  203
  235
  269
  305
  344
  385
  428
  474
  521
  571
  622
  676
  733
  791
  852
  915
  980
Total equity, $m
  7
  11
  16
  22
  29
  38
  50
  63
  79
  97
  117
  140
  165
  193
  223
  255
  290
  327
  365
  406
  450
  495
  542
  591
  642
  695
  751
  809
  868
  931
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  15
  23
  32
  45
  60
  79
  102
  130
  162
  199
  241
  288
  339
  396
  458
  524
  595
  671
  750
  834
  924
  1,016
  1,113
  1,213
  1,318
  1,428
  1,542
  1,661
  1,783
  1,911
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.750
  0.850
  0.910
  0.950
  0.980
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -5
  -2
  1
  4
  8
  13
  18
  25
  34
  43
  54
  66
  79
  93
  109
  126
  144
  163
  183
  205
  227
  251
  275
  301
  328
  356
  385
  415
  446
  479
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  71
Funds from operations, $m
  -4
  -1
  2
  5
  10
  15
  22
  30
  40
  50
  63
  76
  91
  108
  126
  145
  166
  188
  211
  236
  262
  289
  317
  346
  377
  409
  442
  477
  513
  550
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  -4
  -2
  1
  4
  9
  14
  20
  28
  37
  47
  59
  72
  87
  103
  120
  139
  159
  181
  204
  228
  254
  280
  308
  337
  367
  399
  432
  466
  501
  538
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -62
  -67
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -38
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -134
Free cash flow, $m
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -1
  1
  5
  9
  15
  22
  29
  38
  49
  60
  73
  87
  103
  119
  137
  156
  176
  197
  219
  242
  267
  292
  319
  346
  375
  404
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  21
  24
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  7
  6
  4
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  10
  10
  9
  8
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  21
  24
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  11
  17
  24
  31
  41
  51
  62
  75
  89
  105
  121
  139
  158
  178
  199
  221
  245
  269
  294
  321
  348
  377
  407
  438
  470
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -62
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  0
  -3
  -1
  -1
  -1
  2
  6
  10
  16
  22
  30
  40
  50
  62
  75
  89
  104
  121
  139
  158
  178
  199
  222
  245
  270
  295
  322
  349
  378
  408
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  0
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  1
  4
  6
  9
  12
  14
  17
  19
  21
  22
  23
  23
  22
  21
  20
  18
  17
  15
  12
  10
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  82.6
  74.0
  70.1
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6

UQM Technologies, Inc., (UQM) develops, manufactures and sells electric motors, generators, power electronic controllers and fuel cell compressors for the commercial truck, bus, automotive, marine, military and industrial markets. The Company's focus is incorporating its technology as propulsion systems for electric, hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric and fuel cell electric vehicles, delivering the heart of the electric vehicle. UQM's principal products include propulsion motors and generators with power ratings from 50 kilowatts to 250 kilowatts, auxiliary motors and electronic controls and direct current (DC)-to-DC converters. The Company has developed two basic frame size propulsion systems: the PowerPhase Pro for passenger car, light commercial applications, light duty marine and other lighter duty applications, and the PowerPhase HD lineup of products for heavier commercial bus and truck applications and heavier duty marine and other applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  UQM Technologies (UQM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.4
Price to Sales 14.2
Price to Book 6.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -11.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -11.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -20%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -76.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -42.5%
Return On Total Capital -83.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -46.6%
Return On Equity -83.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -46.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -150%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -35%
EBITDA Margin -325%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -190%
Operating Margin -325%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -213.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -325%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -205%
Net Profit Margin -325%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -205%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

UQM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the UQM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7.778749 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by UQM Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of UQM Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our UQM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 51% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for UQM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of UQM Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of UQM Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of UQM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $10 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for UQM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for UQM Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for UQM Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the UQM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for UQM are equal to 68.7%.

Life of production assets of 14.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in UQM Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for UQM is equal to 11.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $9.771241 million for UQM Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 54.188 million for UQM Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of UQM Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ UQM Technologies Inc (NYSEMKT:UQM): Are Analysts Optimistic?   [Nov-15-18 11:10AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ UQM Technologies Reports Third Quarter Financial Results   [Oct-31-18 04:03PM  Business Wire]
▶ UQM Technologies, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-02-18 08:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ High Growth AMEX Stocks For The Day   [May-12-18 12:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ UQM Technologies Reports First Quarter Operating Results   [May-10-18 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ UQM Technologies Provides Update on CFIUS Status   [May-09-18 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Beyond Broadcom: U.S. Scrutiny Frustrates Other Foreign Deals   [Mar-06-18 06:36PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ The alphaDIRECT EnergyTech Monitor: January In Review   [Feb-06-18 09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ UQM Technologies Reports Second Quarter Results   [Aug-07-17 04:02PM  Business Wire]
▶ UQM Technologies Reports First Quarter Results   [May-11-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ UQM Technologies Reports Shareholder Meeting Actions   [Nov-22-16 12:21PM  Business Wire]

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