Intrinsic value of Universal Stainless&Alloy Products - USAP

Previous Close

$21.12

  Intrinsic Value

$5.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-74%

Previous close

$21.12

 
Intrinsic value

$5.52

 
Up/down potential

-74%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of USAP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.60
  23.54
  21.69
  20.02
  18.52
  17.16
  15.95
  14.85
  13.87
  12.98
  12.18
  11.46
  10.82
  10.24
  9.71
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.83
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
Revenue, $m
  255
  314
  383
  459
  544
  638
  739
  849
  967
  1,092
  1,226
  1,366
  1,514
  1,669
  1,831
  2,000
  2,176
  2,360
  2,551
  2,749
  2,956
  3,170
  3,393
  3,625
  3,865
  4,116
  4,376
  4,648
  4,930
  5,224
Variable operating expenses, $m
  209
  259
  315
  378
  448
  525
  608
  699
  796
  899
  1,009
  1,124
  1,246
  1,373
  1,507
  1,646
  1,791
  1,942
  2,099
  2,263
  2,433
  2,609
  2,792
  2,983
  3,181
  3,387
  3,602
  3,825
  4,058
  4,300
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  60
  61
Total operating expenses, $m
  242
  292
  349
  413
  484
  561
  645
  737
  835
  939
  1,050
  1,166
  1,288
  1,416
  1,551
  1,691
  1,837
  1,989
  2,147
  2,312
  2,484
  2,661
  2,845
  3,037
  3,236
  3,443
  3,660
  3,884
  4,118
  4,361
Operating income, $m
  12
  22
  34
  46
  61
  76
  94
  112
  132
  154
  176
  200
  225
  252
  280
  309
  339
  370
  403
  437
  473
  509
  548
  588
  629
  672
  717
  764
  812
  863
EBITDA, $m
  36
  51
  69
  89
  111
  135
  162
  191
  222
  255
  290
  327
  366
  406
  449
  494
  540
  589
  639
  692
  746
  803
  862
  923
  987
  1,053
  1,122
  1,194
  1,269
  1,347
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  103
  110
  118
  127
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
Earnings before tax, $m
  8
  16
  25
  35
  47
  60
  74
  89
  105
  122
  140
  159
  179
  201
  223
  246
  270
  295
  322
  349
  377
  407
  437
  469
  502
  537
  573
  610
  649
  690
Tax expense, $m
  2
  4
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  43
  48
  54
  60
  66
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  145
  155
  165
  175
  186
Net income, $m
  6
  12
  18
  26
  34
  44
  54
  65
  76
  89
  102
  116
  131
  147
  163
  180
  197
  216
  235
  255
  275
  297
  319
  343
  367
  392
  418
  446
  474
  504

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  403
  498
  605
  727
  861
  1,009
  1,170
  1,344
  1,530
  1,729
  1,939
  2,161
  2,395
  2,640
  2,897
  3,165
  3,444
  3,734
  4,036
  4,350
  4,677
  5,016
  5,369
  5,735
  6,116
  6,512
  6,925
  7,354
  7,801
  8,267
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  403
  498
  605
  727
  861
  1,009
  1,170
  1,344
  1,530
  1,729
  1,939
  2,161
  2,395
  2,640
  2,897
  3,165
  3,444
  3,734
  4,036
  4,350
  4,677
  5,016
  5,369
  5,735
  6,116
  6,512
  6,925
  7,354
  7,801
  8,267
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.633
  0.631
  0.633
  0.631
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
  0.632
Average production assets, $m
  224
  276
  336
  404
  478
  560
  650
  746
  850
  960
  1,077
  1,201
  1,331
  1,467
  1,609
  1,758
  1,913
  2,074
  2,242
  2,417
  2,598
  2,787
  2,982
  3,186
  3,398
  3,618
  3,847
  4,085
  4,334
  4,592
Working capital, $m
  127
  157
  191
  230
  272
  319
  370
  425
  483
  546
  613
  683
  757
  834
  915
  1,000
  1,088
  1,180
  1,275
  1,375
  1,478
  1,585
  1,697
  1,812
  1,933
  2,058
  2,188
  2,324
  2,465
  2,612
Total debt, $m
  112
  151
  194
  243
  297
  357
  422
  492
  567
  647
  732
  821
  915
  1,014
  1,118
  1,225
  1,338
  1,455
  1,577
  1,703
  1,835
  1,972
  2,114
  2,261
  2,415
  2,575
  2,741
  2,914
  3,094
  3,282
Total liabilities, $m
  162
  201
  244
  293
  347
  407
  471
  541
  617
  697
  781
  871
  965
  1,064
  1,167
  1,275
  1,388
  1,505
  1,627
  1,753
  1,885
  2,022
  2,164
  2,311
  2,465
  2,625
  2,791
  2,964
  3,144
  3,331
Total equity, $m
  240
  297
  361
  434
  514
  602
  698
  802
  913
  1,032
  1,158
  1,290
  1,430
  1,576
  1,729
  1,889
  2,056
  2,229
  2,410
  2,597
  2,792
  2,995
  3,205
  3,424
  3,651
  3,888
  4,134
  4,390
  4,657
  4,935
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  402
  498
  605
  727
  861
  1,009
  1,169
  1,343
  1,530
  1,729
  1,939
  2,161
  2,395
  2,640
  2,896
  3,164
  3,444
  3,734
  4,037
  4,350
  4,677
  5,017
  5,369
  5,735
  6,116
  6,513
  6,925
  7,354
  7,801
  8,266
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.470
  0.510
  0.540
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  12
  18
  26
  34
  44
  54
  65
  76
  89
  102
  116
  131
  147
  163
  180
  197
  216
  235
  255
  275
  297
  319
  343
  367
  392
  418
  446
  474
  504
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  29
  35
  42
  50
  59
  68
  79
  89
  101
  113
  126
  140
  154
  169
  185
  201
  218
  236
  254
  273
  293
  314
  335
  358
  381
  405
  430
  456
  483
Funds from operations, $m
  29
  41
  54
  68
  85
  103
  122
  143
  166
  190
  216
  243
  271
  301
  332
  365
  399
  434
  471
  509
  549
  590
  633
  678
  724
  773
  823
  876
  930
  987
Change in working capital, $m
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
Cash from operations, $m
  3
  11
  20
  30
  42
  56
  71
  88
  107
  127
  149
  172
  197
  223
  251
  280
  310
  342
  375
  410
  446
  483
  522
  562
  604
  648
  693
  740
  789
  840
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -42
  -50
  -59
  -68
  -79
  -89
  -101
  -113
  -126
  -140
  -154
  -169
  -185
  -201
  -218
  -236
  -254
  -273
  -293
  -314
  -335
  -358
  -381
  -405
  -430
  -456
New CAPEX, $m
  -45
  -53
  -60
  -67
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -97
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -248
  -259
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -64
  -77
  -89
  -102
  -117
  -132
  -148
  -165
  -183
  -199
  -218
  -236
  -256
  -276
  -296
  -318
  -340
  -362
  -386
  -411
  -435
  -461
  -489
  -518
  -547
  -578
  -610
  -643
  -678
  -715
Free cash flow, $m
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -77
  -77
  -75
  -73
  -69
  -64
  -59
  -53
  -46
  -38
  -30
  -21
  -11
  -1
  10
  21
  33
  45
  57
  70
  83
  97
  111
  125
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  33
  38
  43
  49
  54
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  188
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  43
  45
  46
  46
  46
  45
  42
  39
  35
  30
  23
  16
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  76
  83
  89
  95
  100
  105
  107
  109
  110
  110
  108
  106
  103
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  188
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  58
  70
  83
  97
  111
  126
  142
  158
  175
  192
  211
  229
  249
  270
  291
  313
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -49
  -57
  -64
  -72
  -80
  -88
  -96
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -195
  -203
  -210
  -219
  -227
  -237
  -246
  -256
  -267
  -278
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -55
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -96
  -90
  -84
  -77
  -69
  -62
  -53
  -45
  -36
  -26
  -17
  -7
  3
  13
  24
  35
Discount rate, %
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -35
  -34
  -32
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -19
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  81.0
  67.8
  58.3
  51.4
  46.3
  42.5
  39.6
  37.4
  35.7
  34.6
  33.8
  33.3
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1
  33.1

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc. manufactures and markets semi-finished and finished specialty steel products, including stainless steel, nickel alloys, tool steel and certain other alloyed steels. The Company's manufacturing process involves melting, remelting, heat treating, hot and cold rolling, forging, machining and cold drawing of semi-finished and finished specialty steels. The Company also performs conversion services on materials supplied by customers. The Company's manufacturing locations include Bridgeville and Titusville, Pennsylvania; Dunkirk, New York, and North Jackson, Ohio. The Company produce a range of specialty steel grades using several manufacturing processes, including argon oxygen decarburization (AOD), electro-slag remelted (ESR), vacuum induction melting (VIM) and vacuum-arc remelted (VAR). It manufactures its products within the product lines, including Stainless Steel, High-Strength Low Alloy Steel, Tool Steel and High-Temperature Alloy Steel.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Universal Stainless&Alloy Products (USAP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -30.5
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 38.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 37.6%
Total Debt to Equity 40.3%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Return On Total Capital -1.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Return On Equity -2.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 9.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
EBITDA Margin 8.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Operating Margin -2.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.9%
Net Profit Margin -3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
Effective Tax Rate 44.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

USAP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the USAP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $202.643 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Universal Stainless&Alloy Products. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Universal Stainless&Alloy Products. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our USAP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for USAP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Universal Stainless&Alloy Products, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Universal Stainless&Alloy Products.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of USAP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $32 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for USAP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Universal Stainless&Alloy Products.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Universal Stainless&Alloy Products. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the USAP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for USAP are equal to 87.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Universal Stainless&Alloy Products operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for USAP is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $191.668 million for Universal Stainless&Alloy Products - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.689 million for Universal Stainless&Alloy Products is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Universal Stainless&Alloy Products at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Universal Stainless: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for September 13th   [Sep-13-18 11:06AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for August 31st   [Aug-31-18 10:45AM  Zacks]
▶ Universal Stainless: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-25-18 08:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ CEO-to-median employee pay ratios leave analysts scratching heads   [Jun-27-18 07:54AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ As Trade and Price Fears Grow, So Do Reasons for Caution   [Jun-26-18 12:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Universal Stainless Set to Join Russell 3000® Index   [Jun-11-18 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Universal Stainless Announces Common Stock Offering   [May-24-18 04:02PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Universal Stainless: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-25-18 07:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Universal Stainless posts 4Q profit   [Jan-24-18 07:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Universal Stainless reports 3Q loss   [06:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ Universal Stainless posts 2Q profit   [Jul-26-17 09:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Universal Stainless rejects unsolicited offer   [Jun-29-17 06:05PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Universal Stainless reports 1Q loss   [Apr-26-17 08:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Universal Stainless Announces Stainless Base Price Increase   [Mar-20-17 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]

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