Intrinsic value of U.S. Cellular - USM

Previous Close

$54.80

  Intrinsic Value

$16.88

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-69%

Previous close

$54.80

 
Intrinsic value

$16.88

 
Up/down potential

-69%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of USM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,968
  4,059
  4,163
  4,280
  4,410
  4,553
  4,708
  4,876
  5,056
  5,250
  5,458
  5,680
  5,915
  6,166
  6,432
  6,714
  7,012
  7,328
  7,661
  8,013
  8,385
  8,776
  9,189
  9,624
  10,082
  10,565
  11,073
  11,607
  12,169
  12,760
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,916
  4,001
  4,098
  4,207
  4,328
  4,460
  4,604
  4,761
  4,929
  5,110
  5,081
  5,287
  5,506
  5,740
  5,987
  6,250
  6,527
  6,821
  7,131
  7,459
  7,805
  8,169
  8,554
  8,959
  9,385
  9,834
  10,307
  10,804
  11,328
  11,878
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,916
  4,001
  4,098
  4,207
  4,328
  4,460
  4,604
  4,761
  4,929
  5,110
  5,081
  5,287
  5,506
  5,740
  5,987
  6,250
  6,527
  6,821
  7,131
  7,459
  7,805
  8,169
  8,554
  8,959
  9,385
  9,834
  10,307
  10,804
  11,328
  11,878
Operating income, $m
  52
  58
  66
  74
  83
  93
  103
  115
  127
  141
  377
  393
  409
  426
  445
  464
  485
  507
  530
  554
  580
  607
  635
  665
  697
  731
  766
  803
  841
  882
EBITDA, $m
  747
  765
  784
  806
  831
  858
  887
  918
  952
  989
  1,028
  1,070
  1,114
  1,161
  1,212
  1,265
  1,321
  1,380
  1,443
  1,509
  1,579
  1,653
  1,731
  1,813
  1,899
  1,990
  2,086
  2,186
  2,292
  2,403
Interest expense (income), $m
  113
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  150
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  214
  227
  241
  256
  272
  289
  306
  325
  345
  366
  388
  411
  435
  461
  488
  517
  547
  578
Earnings before tax, $m
  -61
  -59
  -57
  -55
  -53
  -50
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -38
  188
  191
  195
  199
  204
  208
  213
  218
  223
  229
  235
  241
  248
  255
  262
  270
  278
  286
  295
  304
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
Net income, $m
  -61
  -59
  -57
  -55
  -53
  -50
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -38
  137
  140
  143
  146
  149
  152
  156
  159
  163
  167
  172
  176
  181
  186
  191
  197
  203
  209
  215
  222

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,973
  7,134
  7,317
  7,523
  7,751
  8,001
  8,274
  8,569
  8,886
  9,227
  9,592
  9,982
  10,396
  10,837
  11,304
  11,799
  12,324
  12,878
  13,464
  14,083
  14,736
  15,424
  16,150
  16,914
  17,720
  18,567
  19,460
  20,399
  21,387
  22,426
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,973
  7,134
  7,317
  7,523
  7,751
  8,001
  8,274
  8,569
  8,886
  9,227
  9,592
  9,982
  10,396
  10,837
  11,304
  11,799
  12,324
  12,878
  13,464
  14,083
  14,736
  15,424
  16,150
  16,914
  17,720
  18,567
  19,460
  20,399
  21,387
  22,426
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
  0.569
Average production assets, $m
  3,595
  3,678
  3,772
  3,878
  3,996
  4,125
  4,265
  4,417
  4,581
  4,757
  4,945
  5,146
  5,359
  5,586
  5,827
  6,083
  6,353
  6,639
  6,941
  7,260
  7,596
  7,951
  8,325
  8,720
  9,135
  9,572
  10,032
  10,516
  11,025
  11,561
Working capital, $m
  373
  382
  391
  402
  415
  428
  443
  458
  475
  494
  513
  534
  556
  580
  605
  631
  659
  689
  720
  753
  788
  825
  864
  905
  948
  993
  1,041
  1,091
  1,144
  1,199
Total debt, $m
  1,705
  1,779
  1,864
  1,959
  2,065
  2,181
  2,307
  2,443
  2,590
  2,748
  2,917
  3,097
  3,289
  3,493
  3,710
  3,939
  4,182
  4,439
  4,710
  4,996
  5,299
  5,617
  5,953
  6,307
  6,680
  7,073
  7,486
  7,921
  8,378
  8,859
Total liabilities, $m
  3,229
  3,303
  3,388
  3,483
  3,589
  3,705
  3,831
  3,967
  4,114
  4,272
  4,441
  4,621
  4,813
  5,017
  5,234
  5,463
  5,706
  5,963
  6,234
  6,520
  6,823
  7,141
  7,477
  7,831
  8,204
  8,597
  9,010
  9,445
  9,902
  10,383
Total equity, $m
  3,745
  3,831
  3,929
  4,040
  4,162
  4,297
  4,443
  4,601
  4,772
  4,955
  5,151
  5,360
  5,583
  5,819
  6,070
  6,336
  6,618
  6,916
  7,230
  7,563
  7,913
  8,283
  8,672
  9,083
  9,515
  9,971
  10,450
  10,954
  11,485
  12,043
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,974
  7,134
  7,317
  7,523
  7,751
  8,002
  8,274
  8,568
  8,886
  9,227
  9,592
  9,981
  10,396
  10,836
  11,304
  11,799
  12,324
  12,879
  13,464
  14,083
  14,736
  15,424
  16,149
  16,914
  17,719
  18,568
  19,460
  20,399
  21,387
  22,426
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -61
  -59
  -57
  -55
  -53
  -50
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -38
  137
  140
  143
  146
  149
  152
  156
  159
  163
  167
  172
  176
  181
  186
  191
  197
  203
  209
  215
  222
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  695
  706
  719
  733
  748
  765
  784
  804
  825
  848
  651
  677
  705
  735
  767
  800
  836
  874
  913
  955
  1,000
  1,046
  1,095
  1,147
  1,202
  1,259
  1,320
  1,384
  1,451
  1,521
Funds from operations, $m
  634
  647
  661
  678
  696
  715
  736
  759
  784
  810
  788
  817
  848
  881
  915
  952
  991
  1,033
  1,076
  1,122
  1,171
  1,222
  1,276
  1,333
  1,393
  1,456
  1,523
  1,592
  1,666
  1,743
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
Cash from operations, $m
  627
  638
  652
  667
  683
  702
  722
  743
  767
  792
  768
  796
  826
  857
  890
  926
  963
  1,003
  1,045
  1,089
  1,136
  1,186
  1,238
  1,292
  1,350
  1,411
  1,475
  1,542
  1,613
  1,688
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -464
  -473
  -484
  -496
  -510
  -526
  -543
  -561
  -581
  -603
  -626
  -651
  -677
  -705
  -735
  -767
  -800
  -836
  -874
  -913
  -955
  -1,000
  -1,046
  -1,095
  -1,147
  -1,202
  -1,259
  -1,320
  -1,384
  -1,451
New CAPEX, $m
  -71
  -83
  -95
  -106
  -118
  -129
  -140
  -152
  -164
  -176
  -188
  -201
  -214
  -227
  -241
  -255
  -270
  -286
  -302
  -319
  -337
  -355
  -374
  -394
  -415
  -437
  -460
  -484
  -509
  -536
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -535
  -556
  -579
  -602
  -628
  -655
  -683
  -713
  -745
  -779
  -814
  -852
  -891
  -932
  -976
  -1,022
  -1,070
  -1,122
  -1,176
  -1,232
  -1,292
  -1,355
  -1,420
  -1,489
  -1,562
  -1,639
  -1,719
  -1,804
  -1,893
  -1,987
Free cash flow, $m
  92
  83
  73
  64
  55
  47
  38
  30
  22
  13
  -46
  -55
  -65
  -75
  -86
  -96
  -107
  -119
  -131
  -143
  -156
  -169
  -183
  -197
  -212
  -228
  -245
  -262
  -280
  -299
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  65
  74
  85
  95
  106
  116
  126
  137
  147
  158
  169
  180
  192
  204
  216
  229
  243
  257
  271
  286
  302
  319
  336
  354
  373
  393
  413
  435
  457
  481
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  129
  145
  156
  165
  175
  184
  194
  203
  212
  221
  59
  69
  80
  91
  102
  114
  126
  139
  152
  165
  179
  194
  209
  225
  241
  258
  277
  295
  315
  336
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  194
  219
  241
  260
  281
  300
  320
  340
  359
  379
  228
  249
  272
  295
  318
  343
  369
  396
  423
  451
  481
  513
  545
  579
  614
  651
  690
  730
  772
  817
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  286
  302
  314
  325
  336
  347
  358
  369
  381
  392
  182
  194
  207
  220
  233
  247
  262
  277
  292
  309
  326
  343
  362
  381
  402
  423
  445
  468
  493
  518
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -129
  -145
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -221
  -196
  -209
  -223
  -237
  -251
  -266
  -282
  -298
  -315
  -332
  -351
  -370
  -390
  -411
  -432
  -455
  -479
  -504
  -531
  -558
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  157
  157
  158
  160
  161
  163
  165
  167
  169
  171
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
Discount rate, %
  4.80
  5.04
  5.29
  5.56
  5.83
  6.13
  6.43
  6.75
  7.09
  7.45
  7.82
  8.21
  8.62
  9.05
  9.50
  9.98
  10.48
  11.00
  11.55
  12.13
  12.74
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.48
  16.25
  17.07
  17.92
  18.82
  19.76
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  150
  142
  135
  128
  121
  114
  106
  99
  91
  84
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.8
  91.3
  86.8
  82.4
  78.1
  74.0
  70.0
  66.2
  62.5
  59.1
  58.2
  57.2
  56.1
  55.0
  53.8
  52.6
  51.3
  49.9
  48.6
  47.2
  45.9
  44.5
  43.1
  41.7
  40.4
  39.0
  37.7
  36.4
  35.1
  33.9

United States Cellular Corporation (U.S. Cellular) is a provider of wireless telecommunication services. The Company's wireless operating markets are in the United States. U.S. Cellular provides service to postpaid and prepaid customers from a range of demographic segments. The Company focuses on retail consumers, government and small-to-mid-size business customers in industries, such as construction, retail, professional services and real estate. The Company offers a range of wireless devices, such as handsets, modems, mobile hotspots, home phones and tablets for use by its customers. U.S. Cellular offers wireless devices that are compatible with fourth generation long term evolution (4G LTE) and third generation (3G) networks. U.S. Cellular offers a range of accessories, such as carrying cases, hands-free devices, batteries, battery chargers, and memory cards to related consumer electronics, such as headphones, speakers and Bluetooth keyboards.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  U.S. Cellular (USM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 97
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 80.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -23.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 53
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 44.5%
Total Debt to Equity 44.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 0.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.4%
EBITDA Margin 20.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Operating Margin -0.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Net Profit Margin 1.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Effective Tax Rate 40.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

USM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the USM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3890 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by U.S. Cellular. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of U.S. Cellular. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our USM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.8%, whose default value for USM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of U.S. Cellular, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of U.S. Cellular.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of USM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for USM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for U.S. Cellular.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for U.S. Cellular. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the USM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for USM are equal to 90.6%.

Life of production assets of 7.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in U.S. Cellular operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for USM is equal to 9.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3677 million for U.S. Cellular - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53 million for U.S. Cellular is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of U.S. Cellular at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ U.S. Cellular: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ iPhone XR arrives at U.S. Cellular on Friday, Oct. 26   [Oct-17-18 02:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Grab These 8 Stocks for Their Strong Numbers   [Aug-24-18 07:19PM  Zacks]
▶ U.S. Cellular Introduces New Unlimited with Payback Plan   [Aug-23-18 09:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Company News For Aug 7, 2018   [Aug-07-18 10:17AM  Zacks]
▶ U.S. Cellular: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-03-18 08:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ iPhone 8 for $0 at U.S. Cellular No Trade-in Required   [Jun-01-18 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ U.S. Cellular: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-01-18 09:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ March Madness ETF Prediction and Sweet 16 Picks   [Mar-22-18 10:40AM  Zacks]
▶ U.S. Cellular beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-23-18 08:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ 10 Awful Stocks to Kick to the Curb   [Jan-05-18 12:54PM  InvestorPlace]

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