Intrinsic value of U.S. Cellular - USM

Previous Close

$35.51

  Intrinsic Value

$12.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-66%

Previous close

$35.51

 
Intrinsic value

$12.00

 
Up/down potential

-66%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of USM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.45
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,939
  4,018
  4,110
  4,216
  4,334
  4,466
  4,610
  4,767
  4,937
  5,120
  5,317
  5,527
  5,751
  5,990
  6,244
  6,513
  6,798
  7,101
  7,420
  7,758
  8,114
  8,490
  8,887
  9,305
  9,745
  10,209
  10,698
  11,212
  11,753
  12,322
  12,921
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,704
  3,788
  3,884
  3,993
  4,113
  4,244
  4,387
  4,542
  4,710
  4,889
  5,044
  5,248
  5,466
  5,698
  5,944
  6,204
  6,480
  6,772
  7,080
  7,405
  7,748
  8,110
  8,492
  8,894
  9,317
  9,763
  10,232
  10,726
  11,245
  11,792
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,942
  3,704
  3,788
  3,884
  3,993
  4,113
  4,244
  4,387
  4,542
  4,710
  4,889
  5,044
  5,248
  5,466
  5,698
  5,944
  6,204
  6,480
  6,772
  7,080
  7,405
  7,748
  8,110
  8,492
  8,894
  9,317
  9,763
  10,232
  10,726
  11,245
  11,792
Operating income, $m
  -3
  314
  322
  331
  342
  353
  366
  380
  394
  410
  428
  483
  503
  523
  546
  569
  594
  621
  648
  678
  709
  742
  777
  813
  852
  892
  935
  980
  1,027
  1,077
  1,129
EBITDA, $m
  615
  929
  950
  975
  1,002
  1,033
  1,066
  1,102
  1,142
  1,184
  1,229
  1,278
  1,330
  1,385
  1,444
  1,506
  1,572
  1,642
  1,716
  1,794
  1,876
  1,963
  2,055
  2,152
  2,254
  2,361
  2,474
  2,593
  2,718
  2,849
  2,988
Interest expense (income), $m
  113
  112
  116
  122
  128
  135
  143
  152
  162
  172
  183
  195
  208
  221
  236
  251
  268
  285
  303
  323
  343
  365
  388
  412
  437
  464
  492
  521
  553
  586
  620
Earnings before tax, $m
  82
  202
  206
  210
  214
  218
  222
  227
  233
  238
  244
  288
  295
  302
  310
  318
  326
  336
  345
  355
  366
  377
  389
  402
  415
  429
  443
  458
  474
  491
  509
Tax expense, $m
  33
  55
  56
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  120
  124
  128
  133
  137
Net income, $m
  48
  148
  150
  153
  156
  159
  162
  166
  170
  174
  178
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  245
  252
  259
  267
  275
  284
  293
  303
  313
  323
  335
  346
  359
  372

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  586
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,110
  6,652
  6,805
  6,980
  7,176
  7,394
  7,632
  7,892
  8,174
  8,477
  8,802
  9,150
  9,522
  9,917
  10,337
  10,783
  11,256
  11,756
  12,285
  12,844
  13,434
  14,057
  14,713
  15,406
  16,135
  16,903
  17,712
  18,563
  19,459
  20,401
  21,392
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,524
  6,652
  6,805
  6,980
  7,176
  7,394
  7,632
  7,892
  8,174
  8,477
  8,802
  9,150
  9,522
  9,917
  10,337
  10,783
  11,256
  11,756
  12,285
  12,844
  13,434
  14,057
  14,713
  15,406
  16,135
  16,903
  17,712
  18,563
  19,459
  20,401
  21,392
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
Average production assets, $m
  4,420
  4,508
  4,612
  4,730
  4,863
  5,011
  5,172
  5,349
  5,539
  5,745
  5,965
  6,201
  6,453
  6,721
  7,005
  7,308
  7,628
  7,967
  8,325
  8,704
  9,104
  9,526
  9,971
  10,440
  10,934
  11,455
  12,003
  12,580
  13,187
  13,826
  14,497
Working capital, $m
  840
  269
  275
  282
  290
  299
  309
  319
  331
  343
  356
  370
  385
  401
  418
  436
  455
  476
  497
  520
  544
  569
  595
  623
  653
  684
  717
  751
  787
  826
  866
Total debt, $m
  1,629
  1,685
  1,766
  1,859
  1,964
  2,079
  2,206
  2,344
  2,493
  2,654
  2,827
  3,012
  3,209
  3,419
  3,642
  3,879
  4,130
  4,395
  4,676
  4,973
  5,286
  5,617
  5,966
  6,333
  6,721
  7,129
  7,558
  8,010
  8,486
  8,986
  9,512
Total liabilities, $m
  3,476
  3,532
  3,613
  3,706
  3,811
  3,926
  4,053
  4,191
  4,340
  4,501
  4,674
  4,859
  5,056
  5,266
  5,489
  5,726
  5,977
  6,242
  6,523
  6,820
  7,133
  7,464
  7,813
  8,180
  8,568
  8,976
  9,405
  9,857
  10,333
  10,833
  11,359
Total equity, $m
  3,634
  3,120
  3,192
  3,274
  3,366
  3,468
  3,580
  3,702
  3,833
  3,976
  4,128
  4,291
  4,466
  4,651
  4,848
  5,057
  5,279
  5,514
  5,762
  6,024
  6,301
  6,593
  6,901
  7,225
  7,567
  7,928
  8,307
  8,706
  9,126
  9,568
  10,033
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,110
  6,652
  6,805
  6,980
  7,177
  7,394
  7,633
  7,893
  8,173
  8,477
  8,802
  9,150
  9,522
  9,917
  10,337
  10,783
  11,256
  11,756
  12,285
  12,844
  13,434
  14,057
  14,714
  15,405
  16,135
  16,904
  17,712
  18,563
  19,459
  20,401
  21,392
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.448
  0.540
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.670
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.800
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.467
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469
  0.469

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  48
  148
  150
  153
  156
  159
  162
  166
  170
  174
  178
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  245
  252
  259
  267
  275
  284
  293
  303
  313
  323
  335
  346
  359
  372
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  618
  615
  628
  643
  660
  679
  700
  723
  747
  773
  802
  795
  827
  862
  898
  937
  978
  1,021
  1,067
  1,116
  1,167
  1,221
  1,278
  1,338
  1,402
  1,469
  1,539
  1,613
  1,691
  1,773
  1,859
Funds from operations, $m
  251
  763
  779
  796
  816
  838
  863
  889
  917
  948
  980
  1,005
  1,042
  1,082
  1,124
  1,169
  1,216
  1,266
  1,319
  1,375
  1,434
  1,497
  1,562
  1,632
  1,705
  1,781
  1,862
  1,947
  2,037
  2,131
  2,230
Change in working capital, $m
  -250
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
Cash from operations, $m
  501
  757
  772
  789
  808
  830
  853
  878
  906
  935
  967
  991
  1,027
  1,066
  1,107
  1,151
  1,197
  1,246
  1,298
  1,353
  1,410
  1,471
  1,536
  1,604
  1,675
  1,750
  1,830
  1,913
  2,001
  2,093
  2,190
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -567
  -578
  -591
  -606
  -623
  -642
  -663
  -686
  -710
  -736
  -765
  -795
  -827
  -862
  -898
  -937
  -978
  -1,021
  -1,067
  -1,116
  -1,167
  -1,221
  -1,278
  -1,338
  -1,402
  -1,469
  -1,539
  -1,613
  -1,691
  -1,773
New CAPEX, $m
  -443
  -88
  -104
  -119
  -133
  -147
  -162
  -176
  -191
  -205
  -220
  -236
  -252
  -268
  -285
  -302
  -320
  -339
  -358
  -379
  -400
  -422
  -445
  -469
  -494
  -521
  -548
  -577
  -607
  -639
  -672
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -618
  -655
  -682
  -710
  -739
  -770
  -804
  -839
  -877
  -915
  -956
  -1,001
  -1,047
  -1,095
  -1,147
  -1,200
  -1,257
  -1,317
  -1,379
  -1,446
  -1,516
  -1,589
  -1,666
  -1,747
  -1,832
  -1,923
  -2,017
  -2,116
  -2,220
  -2,330
  -2,445
Free cash flow, $m
  -117
  102
  91
  80
  69
  59
  49
  39
  29
  20
  10
  -10
  -19
  -29
  -39
  -49
  -60
  -71
  -82
  -93
  -105
  -118
  -131
  -144
  -158
  -172
  -187
  -203
  -219
  -236
  -254
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -11
  67
  81
  93
  104
  116
  127
  138
  149
  161
  173
  185
  197
  210
  223
  237
  251
  266
  281
  297
  313
  331
  349
  368
  387
  408
  429
  452
  476
  500
  526
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  10
  17
  24
  32
  39
  47
  56
  65
  74
  83
  93
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -12
  67
  81
  93
  104
  116
  127
  138
  149
  161
  173
  185
  197
  210
  223
  237
  251
  266
  281
  300
  323
  348
  373
  400
  426
  455
  485
  517
  550
  583
  619
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -129
  170
  172
  172
  173
  174
  175
  177
  179
  181
  183
  175
  178
  181
  184
  187
  191
  195
  199
  206
  218
  230
  242
  255
  269
  283
  298
  314
  330
  347
  365
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -73
  -61
  -72
  -82
  -92
  -102
  -112
  -122
  -132
  -142
  -153
  -163
  -174
  -185
  -197
  -209
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -262
  -277
  -292
  -308
  -325
  -342
  -360
  -379
  -399
  -420
  -442
  -465
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  575
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  684
  100
  90
  81
  72
  63
  55
  47
  38
  30
  12
  4
  -5
  -13
  -22
  -31
  -40
  -49
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  656
  92
  79
  67
  56
  46
  37
  29
  22
  16
  6
  2
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.8
  99.4
  99.0
  98.5
  97.8
  97.1
  96.3
  95.4
  94.4
  93.4
  92.3

United States Cellular Corporation (U.S. Cellular) is a provider of wireless telecommunication services. The Company's wireless operating markets are in the United States. U.S. Cellular provides service to postpaid and prepaid customers from a range of demographic segments. The Company focuses on retail consumers, government and small-to-mid-size business customers in industries, such as construction, retail, professional services and real estate. The Company offers a range of wireless devices, such as handsets, modems, mobile hotspots, home phones and tablets for use by its customers. U.S. Cellular offers wireless devices that are compatible with fourth generation long term evolution (4G LTE) and third generation (3G) networks. U.S. Cellular offers a range of accessories, such as carrying cases, hands-free devices, batteries, battery chargers, and memory cards to related consumer electronics, such as headphones, speakers and Bluetooth keyboards.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  U.S. Cellular (USM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 62.9
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6
Price to Free Cash Flow 52
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -23.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 53
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 44.5%
Total Debt to Equity 44.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 0.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.4%
EBITDA Margin 20.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Operating Margin -0.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Net Profit Margin 1.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Effective Tax Rate 40.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

USM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the USM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3939 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by U.S. Cellular. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of U.S. Cellular. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our USM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for USM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of U.S. Cellular, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of U.S. Cellular.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of USM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for USM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for U.S. Cellular.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for U.S. Cellular. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the USM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for USM are equal to 112.2%.

Life of production assets of 7.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in U.S. Cellular operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for USM is equal to 6.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3634 million for U.S. Cellular - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 85.101 million for U.S. Cellular is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of U.S. Cellular at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ U.S. Cellular reports 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 07:59AM  Associated Press]
▶ iPhone¬†X Arrives at U.S. Cellular¬†on Friday, Nov. 3   [Oct-24-17 11:54AM  Business Wire]
▶ U.S. Cellular meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-04-17 11:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ U.S. Cellular beats 1Q profit forecasts   [08:00AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of USM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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