Intrinsic value of Visteon - VC

Previous Close

$79.28

  Intrinsic Value

$62.53

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-21%

Previous close

$79.28

 
Intrinsic value

$62.53

 
Up/down potential

-21%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of VC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,209
  3,283
  3,367
  3,462
  3,567
  3,682
  3,807
  3,943
  4,089
  4,246
  4,414
  4,593
  4,784
  4,987
  5,202
  5,430
  5,671
  5,926
  6,196
  6,481
  6,781
  7,098
  7,432
  7,784
  8,154
  8,544
  8,955
  9,387
  9,842
  10,320
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,035
  3,105
  3,184
  3,274
  3,372
  3,481
  3,599
  3,727
  3,864
  4,012
  4,157
  4,326
  4,506
  4,697
  4,899
  5,114
  5,341
  5,581
  5,835
  6,103
  6,386
  6,685
  6,999
  7,331
  7,680
  8,047
  8,434
  8,841
  9,269
  9,719
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,035
  3,105
  3,184
  3,274
  3,372
  3,481
  3,599
  3,727
  3,864
  4,012
  4,157
  4,326
  4,506
  4,697
  4,899
  5,114
  5,341
  5,581
  5,835
  6,103
  6,386
  6,685
  6,999
  7,331
  7,680
  8,047
  8,434
  8,841
  9,269
  9,719
Operating income, $m
  174
  178
  183
  188
  194
  201
  208
  216
  225
  234
  257
  267
  278
  290
  303
  316
  330
  345
  361
  377
  395
  413
  432
  453
  475
  497
  521
  546
  573
  601
EBITDA, $m
  264
  270
  277
  285
  294
  303
  313
  325
  337
  349
  363
  378
  394
  410
  428
  447
  467
  488
  510
  533
  558
  584
  612
  641
  671
  703
  737
  773
  810
  849
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  87
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  134
  144
  154
  165
  176
  188
  200
  213
Earnings before tax, $m
  152
  155
  158
  161
  164
  168
  172
  176
  181
  186
  204
  210
  216
  222
  229
  236
  243
  251
  260
  268
  278
  288
  298
  309
  320
  332
  345
  359
  373
  387
Tax expense, $m
  41
  42
  43
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  78
  80
  83
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
Net income, $m
  111
  113
  115
  117
  120
  122
  125
  128
  132
  135
  149
  153
  157
  162
  167
  172
  178
  183
  190
  196
  203
  210
  218
  226
  234
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,351
  2,405
  2,467
  2,536
  2,613
  2,697
  2,789
  2,889
  2,996
  3,111
  3,234
  3,365
  3,505
  3,653
  3,811
  3,978
  4,155
  4,342
  4,539
  4,748
  4,968
  5,200
  5,444
  5,702
  5,974
  6,259
  6,560
  6,877
  7,210
  7,560
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,351
  2,405
  2,467
  2,536
  2,613
  2,697
  2,789
  2,889
  2,996
  3,111
  3,234
  3,365
  3,505
  3,653
  3,811
  3,978
  4,155
  4,342
  4,539
  4,748
  4,968
  5,200
  5,444
  5,702
  5,974
  6,259
  6,560
  6,877
  7,210
  7,560
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
Average production assets, $m
  433
  443
  455
  467
  482
  497
  514
  532
  552
  573
  596
  620
  646
  673
  702
  733
  766
  800
  836
  875
  915
  958
  1,003
  1,051
  1,101
  1,153
  1,209
  1,267
  1,329
  1,393
Working capital, $m
  141
  144
  148
  152
  157
  162
  168
  173
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  327
  342
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
Total debt, $m
  428
  467
  512
  562
  618
  679
  745
  817
  895
  978
  1,067
  1,162
  1,263
  1,371
  1,485
  1,606
  1,734
  1,869
  2,012
  2,163
  2,323
  2,491
  2,668
  2,854
  3,051
  3,258
  3,476
  3,705
  3,946
  4,200
Total liabilities, $m
  1,702
  1,741
  1,786
  1,836
  1,892
  1,953
  2,019
  2,091
  2,169
  2,252
  2,341
  2,436
  2,537
  2,645
  2,759
  2,880
  3,008
  3,143
  3,286
  3,437
  3,597
  3,765
  3,942
  4,128
  4,325
  4,532
  4,750
  4,979
  5,220
  5,474
Total equity, $m
  649
  664
  681
  700
  721
  744
  770
  797
  827
  859
  893
  929
  967
  1,008
  1,052
  1,098
  1,147
  1,198
  1,253
  1,310
  1,371
  1,435
  1,503
  1,574
  1,649
  1,728
  1,811
  1,898
  1,990
  2,087
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,351
  2,405
  2,467
  2,536
  2,613
  2,697
  2,789
  2,888
  2,996
  3,111
  3,234
  3,365
  3,504
  3,653
  3,811
  3,978
  4,155
  4,341
  4,539
  4,747
  4,968
  5,200
  5,445
  5,702
  5,974
  6,260
  6,561
  6,877
  7,210
  7,561
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.660
  0.700
  0.750
  0.800
  0.860
  0.910
  0.970
  1.030
  1.080
  1.140
  1.200
  1.250
  1.310
  1.360
  1.410
  1.460
  1.510
  1.560
  1.610
  1.650
  1.690
  1.740
  1.780
  1.810
  1.850
  1.890
  1.920
  1.950
  1.980
  2.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  111
  113
  115
  117
  120
  122
  125
  128
  132
  135
  149
  153
  157
  162
  167
  172
  178
  183
  190
  196
  203
  210
  218
  226
  234
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  91
  92
  94
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  106
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  249
Funds from operations, $m
  202
  205
  209
  214
  219
  224
  230
  237
  244
  251
  255
  264
  273
  282
  292
  303
  314
  326
  339
  352
  366
  381
  397
  413
  430
  449
  468
  488
  509
  532
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Cash from operations, $m
  199
  202
  206
  210
  214
  219
  225
  231
  237
  244
  248
  256
  264
  273
  283
  293
  304
  315
  327
  340
  353
  367
  382
  398
  414
  432
  450
  469
  489
  511
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -76
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -237
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -137
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -238
  -250
  -261
  -274
  -287
  -302
Free cash flow, $m
  116
  115
  115
  116
  117
  118
  119
  121
  122
  124
  123
  125
  128
  131
  134
  137
  140
  144
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  171
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
  209
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  35
  39
  45
  50
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  35
  39
  45
  50
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  151
  154
  160
  166
  172
  179
  186
  193
  200
  208
  212
  220
  229
  238
  248
  258
  268
  279
  291
  303
  316
  329
  343
  358
  373
  389
  406
  424
  443
  462
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  139
  139
  143
  147
  151
  156
  160
  165
  170
  176
  178
  184
  190
  197
  204
  212
  219
  228
  236
  245
  255
  265
  275
  286
  298
  310
  323
  337
  351
  366
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  133
  127
  124
  121
  117
  113
  108
  103
  98
  92
  85
  79
  72
  66
  60
  54
  48
  42
  36
  31
  26
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Visteon Corporation is a global automotive supplier that designs, engineers and manufactures electronics products for original equipment vehicle manufacturer (OEM), including Ford, Mazda, Nissan/Renault, General Motors, Honda BMW and Daimler. The Company operates through Electronics segment. The Electronics segment provides vehicle cockpit electronics products to customers, including instrument clusters, information displays, infotainment, audio systems, telematics solutions and head up displays. It designs and manufacturers vehicle cockpit electronics components, modules and systems. It offers a range of information displays incorporating a sleek profile, craftsmanship and touch sensors, designed to deliver high performance for the automotive market. It offers a range of audio products, including audio head units, and analog and digital radios, which deliver consumer device connectivity. It offers an automotive-grade, integrated domain controller approach, called Smartcore.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Visteon (VC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.9
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 4.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 58.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -59.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 59%
Total Debt to Equity 65.2%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.4%
Return On Equity 9.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.2%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
EBITDA Margin 8.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Operating Margin 5.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Effective Tax Rate 18.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.6%
Payout Ratio 2314.7%

VC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3146 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Visteon. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Visteon. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Visteon, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Visteon.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Visteon.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Visteon. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VC are equal to 13.5%.

Life of production assets of 5.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Visteon operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VC is equal to 4.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $637 million for Visteon - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.365 million for Visteon is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Visteon at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Wipro Earns Supplier Recognition from Visteon Corporation   [Nov-14-18 08:26AM  Business Wire]
▶ Auto-Parts Insiders Are Buying Up Stock   [07:00AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Visteon: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [09:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ Visteon Announces Third-Quarter 2018 Results   [06:55AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Estimating The Fair Value Of Visteon Corporation (NASDAQ:VC)   [Oct-04-18 08:41AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 7 Self-Driving Car Stocks Veering Off the Road   [Sep-14-18 12:21PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ What Does Visteon Corporations (NASDAQ:VC) PE Ratio Tell You?   [Aug-20-18 11:48AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Visteon: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-26-18 09:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Visteon's Earnings Preview   [Jul-25-18 03:51PM  Benzinga]
▶ Visteon (VC) in Focus: Stock Moves 5.9% Higher   [Jul-09-18 08:54AM  Zacks]
▶ Stocks Open Mixed On Payrolls Data, Trade War; This Big Biotech Spikes   [Jul-06-18 09:39AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Visteon Set to Join S&P MidCap 400   [Jul-05-18 06:04PM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] 4 Stocks to Play the Electric-Vehicle Revolution   [Jun-29-18 04:13PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Report: Visteon executive ousted over porn, prostitutes   [Jun-05-18 10:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Visteon: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-26-18 09:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Visteon Announces First-Quarter 2018 Results   [06:55AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 Auto Stocks That Can Lead the Pack   [Apr-19-18 11:44AM  Investopedia]
▶ Auto Suppliers Get It in Gear on Bullish Note   [Apr-16-18 02:32PM  Barrons.com]
▶ In Car Makers Digital Dash, Little Room for Error   [Mar-28-18 12:34AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ The Latest Technology Is Awesome, Just Not Always in Your Car   [Mar-27-18 08:00AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Visteon misses Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-22-18 08:05AM  Associated Press]

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