Intrinsic value of Viacom Inc. - VIAB

Previous Close

$29.39

  Intrinsic Value

$65.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+122%

Previous close

$29.39

 
Intrinsic value

$65.39

 
Up/down potential

+122%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of VIAB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 10.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  13,202
  13,506
  13,853
  14,242
  14,674
  15,148
  15,664
  16,222
  16,824
  17,469
  18,160
  18,897
  19,682
  20,516
  21,401
  22,339
  23,332
  24,381
  25,491
  26,662
  27,898
  29,201
  30,575
  32,022
  33,547
  35,152
  36,841
  38,619
  40,489
  42,457
Variable operating expenses, $m
  10,722
  10,942
  11,192
  11,474
  11,785
  12,127
  12,500
  12,903
  13,337
  13,803
  13,110
  13,642
  14,208
  14,810
  15,449
  16,126
  16,843
  17,601
  18,401
  19,247
  20,139
  21,080
  22,072
  23,117
  24,217
  25,376
  26,595
  27,879
  29,229
  30,649
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  10,722
  10,942
  11,192
  11,474
  11,785
  12,127
  12,500
  12,903
  13,337
  13,803
  13,110
  13,642
  14,208
  14,810
  15,449
  16,126
  16,843
  17,601
  18,401
  19,247
  20,139
  21,080
  22,072
  23,117
  24,217
  25,376
  26,595
  27,879
  29,229
  30,649
Operating income, $m
  2,479
  2,564
  2,660
  2,769
  2,889
  3,021
  3,164
  3,319
  3,487
  3,666
  5,051
  5,256
  5,474
  5,706
  5,952
  6,213
  6,489
  6,781
  7,089
  7,415
  7,759
  8,121
  8,503
  8,906
  9,330
  9,776
  10,246
  10,740
  11,261
  11,808
EBITDA, $m
  3,907
  3,997
  4,100
  4,215
  4,343
  4,483
  4,636
  4,801
  4,979
  5,170
  5,374
  5,593
  5,825
  6,072
  6,333
  6,611
  6,905
  7,216
  7,544
  7,890
  8,256
  8,642
  9,048
  9,477
  9,928
  10,403
  10,903
  11,429
  11,983
  12,565
Interest expense (income), $m
  635
  544
  563
  584
  608
  634
  664
  696
  731
  770
  811
  855
  902
  953
  1,006
  1,063
  1,124
  1,188
  1,256
  1,328
  1,404
  1,484
  1,568
  1,657
  1,751
  1,850
  1,954
  2,064
  2,180
  2,301
  2,429
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,935
  2,001
  2,077
  2,161
  2,255
  2,357
  2,468
  2,588
  2,717
  2,855
  4,196
  4,353
  4,521
  4,699
  4,889
  5,089
  5,301
  5,525
  5,762
  6,011
  6,275
  6,553
  6,846
  7,155
  7,480
  7,822
  8,182
  8,561
  8,959
  9,378
Tax expense, $m
  522
  540
  561
  584
  609
  636
  666
  699
  734
  771
  1,133
  1,175
  1,221
  1,269
  1,320
  1,374
  1,431
  1,492
  1,556
  1,623
  1,694
  1,769
  1,848
  1,932
  2,019
  2,112
  2,209
  2,311
  2,419
  2,532
Net income, $m
  1,413
  1,461
  1,516
  1,578
  1,646
  1,720
  1,802
  1,889
  1,983
  2,085
  3,063
  3,178
  3,300
  3,431
  3,569
  3,715
  3,870
  4,033
  4,206
  4,388
  4,581
  4,784
  4,998
  5,223
  5,460
  5,710
  5,973
  6,249
  6,540
  6,846

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  24,268
  24,826
  25,464
  26,181
  26,974
  27,845
  28,794
  29,820
  30,926
  32,113
  33,383
  34,737
  36,180
  37,713
  39,340
  41,064
  42,889
  44,819
  46,858
  49,011
  51,283
  53,678
  56,204
  58,864
  61,667
  64,617
  67,723
  70,991
  74,429
  78,045
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  24,268
  24,826
  25,464
  26,181
  26,974
  27,845
  28,794
  29,820
  30,926
  32,113
  33,383
  34,737
  36,180
  37,713
  39,340
  41,064
  42,889
  44,819
  46,858
  49,011
  51,283
  53,678
  56,204
  58,864
  61,667
  64,617
  67,723
  70,991
  74,429
  78,045
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
Average production assets, $m
  7,063
  7,225
  7,411
  7,620
  7,851
  8,104
  8,380
  8,679
  9,001
  9,346
  9,716
  10,110
  10,530
  10,976
  11,449
  11,951
  12,482
  13,044
  13,637
  14,264
  14,925
  15,623
  16,358
  17,132
  17,948
  18,806
  19,710
  20,661
  21,662
  22,714
Working capital, $m
  1,056
  1,080
  1,108
  1,139
  1,174
  1,212
  1,253
  1,298
  1,346
  1,398
  1,453
  1,512
  1,575
  1,641
  1,712
  1,787
  1,867
  1,951
  2,039
  2,133
  2,232
  2,336
  2,446
  2,562
  2,684
  2,812
  2,947
  3,090
  3,239
  3,397
Total debt, $m
  10,427
  10,811
  11,251
  11,744
  12,291
  12,891
  13,545
  14,252
  15,014
  15,832
  16,707
  17,640
  18,634
  19,690
  20,811
  21,999
  23,256
  24,586
  25,991
  27,474
  29,040
  30,690
  32,430
  34,264
  36,194
  38,227
  40,367
  42,619
  44,988
  47,479
Total liabilities, $m
  16,721
  17,105
  17,545
  18,038
  18,585
  19,185
  19,839
  20,546
  21,308
  22,126
  23,001
  23,934
  24,928
  25,984
  27,105
  28,293
  29,550
  30,880
  32,285
  33,768
  35,334
  36,984
  38,724
  40,558
  42,488
  44,521
  46,661
  48,913
  51,282
  53,773
Total equity, $m
  7,547
  7,721
  7,919
  8,142
  8,389
  8,660
  8,955
  9,274
  9,618
  9,987
  10,382
  10,803
  11,252
  11,729
  12,235
  12,771
  13,338
  13,939
  14,573
  15,242
  15,949
  16,694
  17,479
  18,307
  19,178
  20,096
  21,062
  22,078
  23,147
  24,272
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  24,268
  24,826
  25,464
  26,180
  26,974
  27,845
  28,794
  29,820
  30,926
  32,113
  33,383
  34,737
  36,180
  37,713
  39,340
  41,064
  42,888
  44,819
  46,858
  49,010
  51,283
  53,678
  56,203
  58,865
  61,666
  64,617
  67,723
  70,991
  74,429
  78,045
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
  1.440
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
  1.540
  1.560
  1.590
  1.610
  1.630
  1.660
  1.680
  1.700
  1.720
  1.740
  1.760
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.860
  1.870
  1.890
  1.900
  1.920
  1.930
  1.940
  1.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,413
  1,461
  1,516
  1,578
  1,646
  1,720
  1,802
  1,889
  1,983
  2,085
  3,063
  3,178
  3,300
  3,431
  3,569
  3,715
  3,870
  4,033
  4,206
  4,388
  4,581
  4,784
  4,998
  5,223
  5,460
  5,710
  5,973
  6,249
  6,540
  6,846
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,428
  1,433
  1,439
  1,446
  1,454
  1,462
  1,472
  1,481
  1,492
  1,504
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  398
  416
  435
  455
  475
  498
  521
  545
  571
  598
  627
  657
  689
  722
  757
Funds from operations, $m
  2,840
  2,894
  2,955
  3,024
  3,100
  3,183
  3,273
  3,371
  3,476
  3,588
  3,387
  3,515
  3,651
  3,796
  3,950
  4,113
  4,286
  4,468
  4,661
  4,864
  5,078
  5,304
  5,543
  5,794
  6,058
  6,337
  6,630
  6,938
  7,262
  7,603
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  150
  157
Cash from operations, $m
  2,819
  2,869
  2,927
  2,993
  3,065
  3,145
  3,232
  3,326
  3,428
  3,537
  3,331
  3,456
  3,589
  3,730
  3,880
  4,038
  4,206
  4,384
  4,572
  4,770
  4,979
  5,200
  5,433
  5,678
  5,936
  6,208
  6,494
  6,796
  7,113
  7,446
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -231
  -235
  -241
  -247
  -254
  -262
  -270
  -279
  -289
  -300
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -351
  -366
  -382
  -398
  -416
  -435
  -455
  -475
  -498
  -521
  -545
  -571
  -598
  -627
  -657
  -689
  -722
New CAPEX, $m
  -139
  -162
  -186
  -208
  -231
  -253
  -276
  -299
  -322
  -345
  -370
  -394
  -420
  -446
  -473
  -502
  -531
  -562
  -593
  -627
  -661
  -697
  -735
  -774
  -816
  -859
  -904
  -951
  -1,001
  -1,052
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -370
  -397
  -427
  -455
  -485
  -515
  -546
  -578
  -611
  -645
  -682
  -718
  -757
  -797
  -839
  -884
  -929
  -978
  -1,028
  -1,082
  -1,136
  -1,195
  -1,256
  -1,319
  -1,387
  -1,457
  -1,531
  -1,608
  -1,690
  -1,774
Free cash flow, $m
  2,449
  2,471
  2,501
  2,537
  2,580
  2,630
  2,686
  2,748
  2,816
  2,891
  2,650
  2,738
  2,832
  2,933
  3,040
  3,155
  3,277
  3,406
  3,544
  3,689
  3,843
  4,005
  4,177
  4,358
  4,550
  4,751
  4,964
  5,188
  5,423
  5,671
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  345
  385
  440
  494
  547
  600
  653
  707
  762
  818
  875
  933
  994
  1,056
  1,121
  1,188
  1,257
  1,330
  1,405
  1,483
  1,565
  1,651
  1,740
  1,833
  1,931
  2,033
  2,140
  2,252
  2,369
  2,492
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  345
  385
  440
  494
  547
  600
  653
  707
  762
  818
  875
  933
  994
  1,056
  1,121
  1,188
  1,257
  1,330
  1,405
  1,483
  1,565
  1,651
  1,740
  1,833
  1,931
  2,033
  2,140
  2,252
  2,369
  2,492
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2,794
  2,856
  2,940
  3,031
  3,127
  3,230
  3,339
  3,455
  3,578
  3,709
  3,525
  3,671
  3,826
  3,989
  4,161
  4,343
  4,534
  4,736
  4,948
  5,172
  5,408
  5,656
  5,917
  6,192
  6,480
  6,784
  7,104
  7,439
  7,792
  8,163
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -140
  -174
  -198
  -223
  -247
  -271
  -295
  -319
  -344
  -369
  -395
  -421
  -449
  -477
  -506
  -536
  -568
  -600
  -634
  -670
  -707
  -745
  -785
  -827
  -872
  -918
  -966
  -1,016
  -1,069
  -1,125
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2,654
  2,682
  2,742
  2,808
  2,880
  2,959
  3,044
  3,136
  3,234
  3,340
  3,130
  3,250
  3,377
  3,512
  3,655
  3,806
  3,967
  4,136
  4,314
  4,503
  4,702
  4,911
  5,132
  5,364
  5,609
  5,867
  6,138
  6,423
  6,723
  7,038
Discount rate, %
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2,468
  2,305
  2,161
  2,013
  1,862
  1,710
  1,557
  1,405
  1,256
  1,111
  881
  764
  653
  551
  458
  375
  301
  238
  184
  140
  104
  76
  54
  37
  25
  16
  10
  6
  4
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Viacom Inc. offers global media brands that create television programs, motion pictures, short-form content, applications, games, consumer products, social media experiences and other entertainment content. As of September 30, 2016, the Company offered its services for audiences in more than 180 countries. The Company operates through two segments: Media Networks and Filmed Entertainment. The Media Networks segment creates, acquires and distributes programming and other content for audiences The Media Networks segment provides entertainment content and related branded products for advertisers, content distributors and retailers. The Filmed Entertainment segment produces, finances, acquires and distributes motion pictures, television programming and other entertainment content under the Paramount Pictures, Paramount Vantage, Paramount Classics, Paramount Animation, Insurge Pictures, Nickelodeon Movies, MTV Films and Paramount Television brands.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Viacom Inc. (VIAB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 6.3
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 13.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 73
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 183.9%
Total Debt to Equity 184.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Return On Total Capital 11.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Return On Equity 36.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 42%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.2%
EBITDA Margin 23.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.7%
Operating Margin 20.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
Net Profit Margin 14.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Effective Tax Rate 13.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Payout Ratio 17%

VIAB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VIAB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $12943 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Viacom Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Viacom Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VIAB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for VIAB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Viacom Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Viacom Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VIAB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VIAB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Viacom Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Viacom Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VIAB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VIAB are equal to 53.5%.

Life of production assets of 60.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Viacom Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VIAB is equal to 8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $7407 million for Viacom Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 347.624 million for Viacom Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Viacom Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.2 billion.

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