Intrinsic value of Viavi Solutions Inc. - VIAV

Previous Close

$14.11

  Intrinsic Value

$42.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+202%

Previous close

$14.11

 
Intrinsic value

$42.67

 
Up/down potential

+202%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of VIAV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  49.40
  44.96
  40.96
  37.37
  34.13
  31.22
  28.60
  26.24
  24.11
  22.20
  20.48
  18.93
  17.54
  16.29
  15.16
  14.14
  13.23
  12.40
  11.66
  11.00
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.94
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
Revenue, $m
  1,315
  1,906
  2,687
  3,690
  4,950
  6,495
  8,353
  10,544
  13,087
  15,992
  19,267
  22,915
  26,934
  31,321
  36,068
  41,169
  46,615
  52,397
  58,509
  64,943
  71,696
  78,764
  86,146
  93,843
  101,859
  110,199
  118,870
  127,883
  137,248
  146,981
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,264
  1,807
  2,524
  3,445
  4,602
  6,020
  7,726
  9,738
  12,072
  14,739
  17,690
  21,039
  24,729
  28,756
  33,115
  37,798
  42,797
  48,106
  53,718
  59,625
  65,825
  72,314
  79,092
  86,159
  93,518
  101,175
  109,136
  117,411
  126,010
  134,945
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,264
  1,807
  2,524
  3,445
  4,602
  6,020
  7,726
  9,738
  12,072
  14,739
  17,690
  21,039
  24,729
  28,756
  33,115
  37,798
  42,797
  48,106
  53,718
  59,625
  65,825
  72,314
  79,092
  86,159
  93,518
  101,175
  109,136
  117,411
  126,010
  134,945
Operating income, $m
  51
  99
  163
  245
  348
  475
  627
  806
  1,015
  1,252
  1,578
  1,876
  2,206
  2,565
  2,954
  3,371
  3,817
  4,291
  4,791
  5,318
  5,871
  6,450
  7,054
  7,684
  8,341
  9,024
  9,734
  10,472
  11,239
  12,036
EBITDA, $m
  142
  206
  290
  399
  535
  701
  902
  1,139
  1,413
  1,727
  2,081
  2,475
  2,909
  3,382
  3,895
  4,446
  5,034
  5,659
  6,319
  7,013
  7,743
  8,506
  9,303
  10,135
  11,000
  11,901
  12,837
  13,811
  14,822
  15,873
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  45
  72
  109
  158
  220
  299
  395
  511
  648
  806
  988
  1,192
  1,420
  1,670
  1,944
  2,240
  2,558
  2,898
  3,259
  3,640
  4,041
  4,462
  4,903
  5,364
  5,844
  6,344
  6,864
  7,405
  7,967
  8,552
Earnings before tax, $m
  6
  27
  54
  87
  128
  176
  232
  295
  367
  446
  590
  684
  786
  895
  1,010
  1,131
  1,259
  1,393
  1,532
  1,678
  1,830
  1,987
  2,151
  2,321
  2,497
  2,680
  2,870
  3,067
  3,271
  3,484
Tax expense, $m
  2
  7
  15
  24
  35
  47
  63
  80
  99
  120
  159
  185
  212
  242
  273
  305
  340
  376
  414
  453
  494
  537
  581
  627
  674
  724
  775
  828
  883
  941
Net income, $m
  4
  20
  39
  64
  93
  128
  169
  215
  268
  326
  431
  500
  574
  653
  737
  826
  919
  1,017
  1,119
  1,225
  1,336
  1,451
  1,570
  1,694
  1,823
  1,956
  2,095
  2,239
  2,388
  2,543

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,267
  3,286
  4,632
  6,363
  8,534
  11,199
  14,401
  18,179
  22,563
  27,572
  33,219
  39,509
  46,439
  54,002
  62,187
  70,981
  80,370
  90,340
  100,877
  111,971
  123,614
  135,800
  148,528
  161,799
  175,619
  189,998
  204,948
  220,487
  236,635
  253,416
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,267
  3,286
  4,632
  6,363
  8,534
  11,199
  14,401
  18,179
  22,563
  27,572
  33,219
  39,509
  46,439
  54,002
  62,187
  70,981
  80,370
  90,340
  100,877
  111,971
  123,614
  135,800
  148,528
  161,799
  175,619
  189,998
  204,948
  220,487
  236,635
  253,416
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
Average production assets, $m
  511
  741
  1,045
  1,436
  1,926
  2,527
  3,249
  4,102
  5,091
  6,221
  7,495
  8,914
  10,477
  12,184
  14,031
  16,015
  18,133
  20,382
  22,760
  25,263
  27,890
  30,639
  33,511
  36,505
  39,623
  42,867
  46,240
  49,746
  53,390
  57,176
Working capital, $m
  133
  192
  271
  373
  500
  656
  844
  1,065
  1,322
  1,615
  1,946
  2,314
  2,720
  3,163
  3,643
  4,158
  4,708
  5,292
  5,909
  6,559
  7,241
  7,955
  8,701
  9,478
  10,288
  11,130
  12,006
  12,916
  13,862
  14,845
Total debt, $m
  1,335
  2,018
  2,920
  4,080
  5,535
  7,320
  9,465
  11,997
  14,934
  18,290
  22,074
  26,288
  30,931
  35,998
  41,482
  47,374
  53,664
  60,344
  67,404
  74,837
  82,638
  90,803
  99,330
  108,222
  117,482
  127,115
  137,132
  147,543
  158,362
  169,605
Total liabilities, $m
  1,519
  2,202
  3,103
  4,263
  5,718
  7,503
  9,649
  12,180
  15,117
  18,473
  22,257
  26,471
  31,114
  36,181
  41,665
  47,557
  53,848
  60,528
  67,588
  75,021
  82,821
  90,986
  99,514
  108,405
  117,665
  127,299
  137,315
  147,727
  158,546
  169,788
Total equity, $m
  748
  1,084
  1,529
  2,100
  2,816
  3,696
  4,752
  5,999
  7,446
  9,099
  10,962
  13,038
  15,325
  17,821
  20,522
  23,424
  26,522
  29,812
  33,289
  36,951
  40,793
  44,814
  49,014
  53,394
  57,954
  62,699
  67,633
  72,761
  78,090
  83,627
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,267
  3,286
  4,632
  6,363
  8,534
  11,199
  14,401
  18,179
  22,563
  27,572
  33,219
  39,509
  46,439
  54,002
  62,187
  70,981
  80,370
  90,340
  100,877
  111,972
  123,614
  135,800
  148,528
  161,799
  175,619
  189,998
  204,948
  220,488
  236,636
  253,415
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.790
  1.860
  1.910
  1.940
  1.970
  1.980
  1.990
  2.000
  2.010
  2.010
  2.010
  2.020
  2.020
  2.020
  2.020
  2.020
  2.020
  2.020
  2.020
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  20
  39
  64
  93
  128
  169
  215
  268
  326
  431
  500
  574
  653
  737
  826
  919
  1,017
  1,119
  1,225
  1,336
  1,451
  1,570
  1,694
  1,823
  1,956
  2,095
  2,239
  2,388
  2,543
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  91
  107
  127
  153
  186
  227
  275
  332
  399
  475
  503
  598
  703
  818
  942
  1,075
  1,217
  1,368
  1,528
  1,695
  1,872
  2,056
  2,249
  2,450
  2,659
  2,877
  3,103
  3,339
  3,583
  3,837
Funds from operations, $m
  95
  126
  167
  217
  280
  355
  444
  548
  666
  800
  934
  1,098
  1,277
  1,471
  1,679
  1,901
  2,136
  2,385
  2,646
  2,921
  3,207
  3,507
  3,819
  4,144
  4,482
  4,833
  5,198
  5,577
  5,971
  6,381
Change in working capital, $m
  44
  60
  79
  101
  127
  156
  188
  221
  257
  293
  331
  368
  406
  443
  479
  515
  550
  584
  617
  650
  682
  714
  746
  777
  810
  842
  876
  910
  946
  983
Cash from operations, $m
  52
  67
  88
  116
  153
  199
  257
  327
  410
  507
  603
  729
  871
  1,028
  1,199
  1,385
  1,586
  1,801
  2,029
  2,271
  2,525
  2,793
  3,074
  3,367
  3,672
  3,991
  4,322
  4,667
  5,025
  5,398
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -34
  -50
  -70
  -96
  -129
  -170
  -218
  -275
  -342
  -418
  -503
  -598
  -703
  -818
  -942
  -1,075
  -1,217
  -1,368
  -1,528
  -1,695
  -1,872
  -2,056
  -2,249
  -2,450
  -2,659
  -2,877
  -3,103
  -3,339
  -3,583
New CAPEX, $m
  -169
  -230
  -304
  -391
  -490
  -601
  -723
  -852
  -989
  -1,130
  -1,274
  -1,419
  -1,564
  -1,706
  -1,847
  -1,984
  -2,118
  -2,249
  -2,377
  -2,503
  -2,627
  -2,749
  -2,872
  -2,994
  -3,118
  -3,244
  -3,373
  -3,506
  -3,643
  -3,786
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -192
  -264
  -354
  -461
  -586
  -730
  -893
  -1,070
  -1,264
  -1,472
  -1,692
  -1,922
  -2,162
  -2,409
  -2,665
  -2,926
  -3,193
  -3,466
  -3,745
  -4,031
  -4,322
  -4,621
  -4,928
  -5,243
  -5,568
  -5,903
  -6,250
  -6,609
  -6,982
  -7,369
Free cash flow, $m
  -141
  -198
  -266
  -345
  -434
  -531
  -635
  -744
  -855
  -965
  -1,089
  -1,193
  -1,291
  -1,382
  -1,465
  -1,540
  -1,607
  -1,666
  -1,716
  -1,760
  -1,797
  -1,828
  -1,854
  -1,877
  -1,896
  -1,912
  -1,928
  -1,942
  -1,957
  -1,971
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  502
  683
  902
  1,160
  1,455
  1,785
  2,146
  2,531
  2,937
  3,356
  3,784
  4,214
  4,643
  5,067
  5,484
  5,892
  6,291
  6,680
  7,060
  7,433
  7,801
  8,165
  8,528
  8,892
  9,260
  9,634
  10,017
  10,411
  10,819
  11,243
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  244
  317
  405
  507
  623
  751
  888
  1,031
  1,179
  1,327
  1,433
  1,576
  1,713
  1,843
  1,964
  2,076
  2,179
  2,273
  2,359
  2,436
  2,506
  2,571
  2,630
  2,685
  2,738
  2,789
  2,839
  2,889
  2,941
  2,994
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  746
  1,000
  1,307
  1,667
  2,078
  2,536
  3,034
  3,562
  4,116
  4,683
  5,217
  5,790
  6,356
  6,910
  7,448
  7,968
  8,470
  8,953
  9,419
  9,869
  10,307
  10,736
  11,158
  11,577
  11,998
  12,423
  12,856
  13,300
  13,760
  14,237
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  605
  802
  1,041
  1,322
  1,644
  2,005
  2,398
  2,819
  3,261
  3,719
  4,128
  4,597
  5,065
  5,528
  5,983
  6,428
  6,863
  7,287
  7,702
  8,109
  8,510
  8,907
  9,303
  9,700
  10,102
  10,510
  10,928
  11,358
  11,803
  12,266
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -248
  -336
  -444
  -571
  -717
  -879
  -1,057
  -1,247
  -1,447
  -1,653
  -1,864
  -2,076
  -2,287
  -2,496
  -2,701
  -2,902
  -3,098
  -3,290
  -3,477
  -3,661
  -3,842
  -4,021
  -4,200
  -4,379
  -4,561
  -4,745
  -4,934
  -5,128
  -5,329
  -5,538
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  235
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  592
  466
  597
  751
  928
  1,125
  1,341
  1,572
  1,815
  2,066
  2,264
  2,522
  2,778
  3,032
  3,282
  3,526
  3,764
  3,997
  4,225
  4,448
  4,668
  4,886
  5,103
  5,321
  5,541
  5,765
  5,994
  6,230
  6,474
  6,728
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  568
  426
  519
  618
  719
  817
  906
  983
  1,042
  1,083
  1,075
  1,076
  1,056
  1,018
  963
  896
  819
  736
  651
  565
  483
  405
  334
  271
  216
  168
  129
  96
  71
  51
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  90.0
  82.1
  75.6
  70.3
  65.8
  62.0
  58.8
  56.0
  53.6
  51.5
  49.7
  48.2
  46.8
  45.5
  44.4
  43.4
  42.5
  41.7
  40.9
  40.3
  39.7
  39.1
  38.6
  38.1
  37.7
  37.2
  36.9
  36.5
  36.2
  35.9

Viavi Solutions Inc. (Viavi) is a provider of network test, monitoring and assurance solutions to communications service providers, enterprises and their ecosystems. The Company also offers thin film optical coatings, providing light management solutions to anti-counterfeiting, consumer and industrial, government and healthcare and other markets. The Company's segments include Network Enablement (NE), Service Enablement (SE), and Optical Security and Performance Products (OSP). The NE segment provides testing solutions that access the network to perform build-out and maintenance tasks. The SE segment offers solutions, which are embedded systems that yield network, service and application performance data. The OSP segment provides optical security solutions. The OSP segment's security offerings for the currency market include Optically Variable Pigment (OVP), Optically Variable Magnetic Pigment (OVMP) and banknote thread substrates.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Viavi Solutions Inc. (VIAV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.3
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 40.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 78.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 8.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -17.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1437
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 122%
Total Debt to Equity 122.1%
Interest Coverage 28
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Total Capital 11%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Return On Equity 22.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60%
EBITDA Margin 30.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Operating Margin 1.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Net Profit Margin 20.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Effective Tax Rate 11.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

VIAV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VIAV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $880 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Viavi Solutions Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Viavi Solutions Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VIAV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 49.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VIAV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Viavi Solutions Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Viavi Solutions Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VIAV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VIAV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Viavi Solutions Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Viavi Solutions Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VIAV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VIAV are equal to 38.9%.

Life of production assets of 14.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Viavi Solutions Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VIAV is equal to 10.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $734.9 million for Viavi Solutions Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 228.128 million for Viavi Solutions Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Viavi Solutions Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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