Intrinsic value of Viavi Solutions - VIAV

Previous Close

$11.22

  Intrinsic Value

$1.18

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

Previous close

$11.22

 
Intrinsic value

$1.18

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of VIAV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.90
  11.21
  10.59
  10.03
  9.53
  9.07
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
Revenue, $m
  908
  1,010
  1,117
  1,229
  1,346
  1,468
  1,595
  1,727
  1,865
  2,008
  2,157
  2,312
  2,472
  2,639
  2,813
  2,993
  3,181
  3,377
  3,581
  3,793
  4,015
  4,246
  4,487
  4,739
  5,002
  5,276
  5,564
  5,864
  6,179
  6,508
Variable operating expenses, $m
  989
  1,098
  1,213
  1,332
  1,457
  1,588
  1,724
  1,866
  2,013
  2,166
  2,307
  2,472
  2,644
  2,822
  3,008
  3,201
  3,402
  3,612
  3,830
  4,057
  4,294
  4,541
  4,799
  5,068
  5,349
  5,643
  5,950
  6,272
  6,608
  6,960
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  989
  1,098
  1,213
  1,332
  1,457
  1,588
  1,724
  1,866
  2,013
  2,166
  2,307
  2,472
  2,644
  2,822
  3,008
  3,201
  3,402
  3,612
  3,830
  4,057
  4,294
  4,541
  4,799
  5,068
  5,349
  5,643
  5,950
  6,272
  6,608
  6,960
Operating income, $m
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -148
  -158
  -150
  -161
  -172
  -183
  -195
  -208
  -221
  -235
  -249
  -264
  -279
  -295
  -312
  -329
  -348
  -367
  -387
  -407
  -429
  -452
EBITDA, $m
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -208
  -220
  -232
  -245
  -258
  -272
  -286
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  53
  29
  35
  41
  47
  53
  60
  68
  75
  83
  91
  99
  108
  117
  126
  136
  146
  157
  168
  179
  191
  204
  217
  231
  245
  260
  275
  291
  308
  326
Earnings before tax, $m
  -134
  -117
  -130
  -144
  -159
  -174
  -189
  -206
  -223
  -241
  -241
  -260
  -280
  -300
  -322
  -344
  -367
  -392
  -417
  -443
  -470
  -499
  -529
  -560
  -592
  -626
  -662
  -699
  -738
  -778
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -134
  -117
  -130
  -144
  -159
  -174
  -189
  -206
  -223
  -241
  -241
  -260
  -280
  -300
  -322
  -344
  -367
  -392
  -417
  -443
  -470
  -499
  -529
  -560
  -592
  -626
  -662
  -699
  -738
  -778

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  998
  1,110
  1,227
  1,350
  1,479
  1,613
  1,753
  1,898
  2,050
  2,207
  2,370
  2,540
  2,717
  2,900
  3,091
  3,289
  3,496
  3,711
  3,935
  4,168
  4,412
  4,666
  4,931
  5,207
  5,496
  5,798
  6,114
  6,444
  6,790
  7,151
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  998
  1,110
  1,227
  1,350
  1,479
  1,613
  1,753
  1,898
  2,050
  2,207
  2,370
  2,540
  2,717
  2,900
  3,091
  3,289
  3,496
  3,711
  3,935
  4,168
  4,412
  4,666
  4,931
  5,207
  5,496
  5,798
  6,114
  6,444
  6,790
  7,151
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
Average production assets, $m
  261
  291
  322
  354
  388
  423
  459
  498
  537
  578
  621
  666
  712
  760
  810
  862
  916
  973
  1,031
  1,092
  1,156
  1,223
  1,292
  1,365
  1,440
  1,520
  1,602
  1,689
  1,779
  1,874
Working capital, $m
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
Total debt, $m
  505
  606
  712
  822
  938
  1,059
  1,185
  1,316
  1,452
  1,593
  1,741
  1,893
  2,052
  2,217
  2,389
  2,568
  2,754
  2,947
  3,149
  3,359
  3,578
  3,806
  4,045
  4,294
  4,554
  4,826
  5,110
  5,407
  5,718
  6,044
Total liabilities, $m
  898
  999
  1,104
  1,215
  1,331
  1,452
  1,578
  1,708
  1,845
  1,986
  2,133
  2,286
  2,445
  2,610
  2,782
  2,960
  3,146
  3,340
  3,541
  3,751
  3,971
  4,199
  4,438
  4,687
  4,947
  5,218
  5,503
  5,800
  6,111
  6,436
Total equity, $m
  100
  111
  123
  135
  148
  161
  175
  190
  205
  221
  237
  254
  272
  290
  309
  329
  350
  371
  393
  417
  441
  467
  493
  521
  550
  580
  611
  644
  679
  715
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  998
  1,110
  1,227
  1,350
  1,479
  1,613
  1,753
  1,898
  2,050
  2,207
  2,370
  2,540
  2,717
  2,900
  3,091
  3,289
  3,496
  3,711
  3,934
  4,168
  4,412
  4,666
  4,931
  5,208
  5,497
  5,798
  6,114
  6,444
  6,790
  7,151
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.060
  5.460
  5.800
  6.090
  6.340
  6.570
  6.760
  6.930
  7.080
  7.220
  7.340
  7.450
  7.550
  7.650
  7.730
  7.810
  7.880
  7.940
  8.000
  8.060
  8.110
  8.160
  8.200
  8.250
  8.290
  8.320
  8.360
  8.390
  8.420
  8.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -134
  -117
  -130
  -144
  -159
  -174
  -189
  -206
  -223
  -241
  -241
  -260
  -280
  -300
  -322
  -344
  -367
  -392
  -417
  -443
  -470
  -499
  -529
  -560
  -592
  -626
  -662
  -699
  -738
  -778
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  127
  134
  142
  149
  157
  166
Funds from operations, $m
  -93
  -73
  -84
  -95
  -106
  -118
  -131
  -144
  -157
  -171
  -186
  -201
  -217
  -233
  -250
  -268
  -286
  -306
  -326
  -346
  -368
  -391
  -414
  -439
  -465
  -492
  -520
  -549
  -580
  -612
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  -92
  -72
  -82
  -93
  -105
  -117
  -129
  -142
  -155
  -169
  -184
  -199
  -215
  -231
  -248
  -266
  -284
  -303
  -323
  -344
  -365
  -388
  -411
  -436
  -462
  -488
  -516
  -546
  -576
  -608
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -157
New CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -49
  -52
  -57
  -60
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -152
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -206
  -217
  -229
  -240
  -252
Free cash flow, $m
  -140
  -124
  -139
  -154
  -170
  -186
  -203
  -221
  -239
  -258
  -278
  -299
  -320
  -342
  -365
  -389
  -414
  -441
  -468
  -496
  -526
  -557
  -589
  -623
  -658
  -695
  -734
  -774
  -816
  -861
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -426
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  667
  128
  142
  157
  172
  187
  203
  220
  238
  256
  257
  277
  297
  319
  341
  364
  388
  413
  439
  466
  495
  524
  555
  587
  621
  656
  693
  732
  772
  814
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  241
  229
  248
  268
  288
  308
  329
  351
  374
  398
  404
  430
  456
  484
  513
  543
  574
  607
  641
  676
  714
  753
  793
  836
  881
  928
  977
  1,029
  1,083
  1,139
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  100
  105
  109
  113
  118
  122
  126
  131
  135
  140
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  279
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -667
  -128
  -142
  -157
  -172
  -187
  -203
  -220
  -238
  -256
  -257
  -277
  -297
  -319
  -341
  -364
  -388
  -413
  -439
  -466
  -495
  -524
  -555
  -587
  -621
  -656
  -693
  -732
  -772
  -814
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,219
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  652
  -24
  -33
  -43
  -54
  -65
  -77
  -90
  -103
  -117
  -131
  -146
  -161
  -177
  -194
  -211
  -229
  -247
  -266
  -286
  -307
  -328
  -351
  -374
  -398
  -423
  -449
  -477
  -505
  -535
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  626
  -22
  -29
  -36
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -62
  -61
  -59
  -57
  -54
  -50
  -46
  -41
  -36
  -32
  -27
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -7
  -6
  -4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  35.8
  25.6
  18.3
  13.2
  9.5
  6.8
  4.9
  3.5
  2.5
  1.9
  1.4
  1.0
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Viavi Solutions Inc. (Viavi) is a provider of network test, monitoring and assurance solutions to communications service providers, enterprises and their ecosystems. The Company also offers thin film optical coatings, providing light management solutions to anti-counterfeiting, consumer and industrial, government and healthcare and other markets. The Company's segments include Network Enablement (NE), Service Enablement (SE), and Optical Security and Performance Products (OSP). The NE segment provides testing solutions that access the network to perform build-out and maintenance tasks. The SE segment offers solutions, which are embedded systems that yield network, service and application performance data. The OSP segment provides optical security solutions. The OSP segment's security offerings for the currency market include Optically Variable Pigment (OVP), Optically Variable Magnetic Pigment (OVMP) and banknote thread substrates.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Viavi Solutions (VIAV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.3
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 32
Price to Free Cash Flow 62.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 8.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -17.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1437
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 122%
Total Debt to Equity 122.1%
Interest Coverage 28
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Total Capital 11%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Return On Equity 22.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60%
EBITDA Margin 30.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Operating Margin 1.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Net Profit Margin 20.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Effective Tax Rate 11.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

VIAV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VIAV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $811.4 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Viavi Solutions. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Viavi Solutions. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VIAV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VIAV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Viavi Solutions, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Viavi Solutions.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VIAV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 109.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VIAV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for Viavi Solutions.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Viavi Solutions. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VIAV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VIAV are equal to 28.8%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Viavi Solutions operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VIAV is equal to -1.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $786.4 million for Viavi Solutions - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 226.315 million for Viavi Solutions is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Viavi Solutions at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Stocks - Cisco Gains Midday, Lifting Telecom Shares   [Aug-16-18 02:31PM  Investing.com]
▶ Viav Solutions: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Viavi Solutions Q4 Earnings Preview   [07:50AM  Benzinga]
▶ VIAVI Launches New Cellular IoT Testing Capabilities   [Jun-20-18 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ VIAVI To Participate At Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Jun-04-18 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Viav Solutions: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 05:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ VIAVI Announces Velocity Partner Program Award Winners   [Apr-03-18 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10 Stocks That Are Ready to Change Direction   [02:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Viavi shares soar as analysts praise $455M acquisition, earnings that top expectations   [Feb-02-18 03:25PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 3 Winning Stocks on Friday   [02:43PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Viav Solutions reports 2Q loss   [Feb-01-18 04:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Tech Companies Gurus Are Buying   [Dec-28-17 10:45AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ What Is Viavi Solutions Incs (NASDAQ:VIAV) Share Price Doing?   [Dec-19-17 02:45PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Viav Solutions reports 1Q loss   [05:01PM  Associated Press]

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