Intrinsic value of Valmont Industries - VMI

Previous Close

$139.35

  Intrinsic Value

$112.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-19%

Previous close

$139.35

 
Intrinsic value

$112.96

 
Up/down potential

-19%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of VMI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,801
  2,865
  2,939
  3,022
  3,113
  3,214
  3,323
  3,442
  3,569
  3,706
  3,853
  4,009
  4,176
  4,353
  4,540
  4,739
  4,950
  5,173
  5,408
  5,657
  5,919
  6,195
  6,487
  6,794
  7,117
  7,458
  7,816
  8,193
  8,590
  9,008
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,514
  2,571
  2,636
  2,709
  2,789
  2,878
  2,974
  3,079
  3,191
  3,312
  3,393
  3,531
  3,677
  3,833
  3,999
  4,174
  4,359
  4,555
  4,763
  4,981
  5,212
  5,456
  5,713
  5,983
  6,268
  6,568
  6,883
  7,216
  7,565
  7,933
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,528
  2,586
  2,651
  2,724
  2,805
  2,894
  2,990
  3,096
  3,208
  3,329
  3,411
  3,549
  3,696
  3,852
  4,018
  4,194
  4,379
  4,576
  4,784
  5,003
  5,234
  5,479
  5,736
  6,007
  6,292
  6,593
  6,908
  7,242
  7,591
  7,960
Operating income, $m
  272
  280
  288
  298
  308
  320
  333
  346
  361
  377
  442
  460
  480
  500
  522
  546
  570
  597
  624
  653
  684
  717
  751
  787
  825
  865
  908
  952
  999
  1,048
EBITDA, $m
  386
  395
  405
  417
  430
  444
  459
  476
  494
  513
  533
  555
  579
  604
  630
  658
  688
  719
  752
  788
  825
  864
  905
  948
  994
  1,042
  1,093
  1,146
  1,203
  1,262
Interest expense (income), $m
  46
  45
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  185
  195
  207
  219
  232
Earnings before tax, $m
  228
  233
  240
  247
  255
  264
  273
  283
  294
  306
  367
  380
  395
  410
  426
  444
  462
  481
  502
  524
  546
  571
  596
  623
  651
  681
  712
  745
  780
  816
Tax expense, $m
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  79
  83
  99
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  141
  148
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  211
  220
Net income, $m
  166
  170
  175
  180
  186
  192
  199
  207
  215
  224
  268
  278
  288
  299
  311
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  399
  417
  435
  455
  475
  497
  520
  544
  569
  596

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,563
  2,622
  2,689
  2,765
  2,848
  2,940
  3,040
  3,149
  3,266
  3,391
  3,525
  3,668
  3,820
  3,982
  4,154
  4,336
  4,529
  4,733
  4,948
  5,175
  5,415
  5,668
  5,935
  6,216
  6,512
  6,823
  7,151
  7,496
  7,859
  8,241
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,563
  2,622
  2,689
  2,765
  2,848
  2,940
  3,040
  3,149
  3,266
  3,391
  3,525
  3,668
  3,820
  3,982
  4,154
  4,336
  4,529
  4,733
  4,948
  5,175
  5,415
  5,668
  5,935
  6,216
  6,512
  6,823
  7,151
  7,496
  7,859
  8,241
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
  1.093
Average production assets, $m
  770
  788
  808
  831
  856
  884
  914
  946
  982
  1,019
  1,060
  1,103
  1,148
  1,197
  1,249
  1,303
  1,361
  1,422
  1,487
  1,556
  1,628
  1,704
  1,784
  1,868
  1,957
  2,051
  2,149
  2,253
  2,362
  2,477
Working capital, $m
  588
  602
  617
  635
  654
  675
  698
  723
  750
  778
  809
  842
  877
  914
  953
  995
  1,039
  1,086
  1,136
  1,188
  1,243
  1,301
  1,362
  1,427
  1,495
  1,566
  1,641
  1,721
  1,804
  1,892
Total debt, $m
  786
  821
  861
  906
  956
  1,010
  1,070
  1,134
  1,203
  1,278
  1,357
  1,442
  1,532
  1,628
  1,730
  1,838
  1,952
  2,073
  2,201
  2,336
  2,478
  2,628
  2,786
  2,953
  3,128
  3,313
  3,507
  3,712
  3,927
  4,154
Total liabilities, $m
  1,520
  1,555
  1,595
  1,639
  1,689
  1,744
  1,803
  1,867
  1,936
  2,011
  2,090
  2,175
  2,265
  2,361
  2,463
  2,571
  2,686
  2,806
  2,934
  3,069
  3,211
  3,361
  3,519
  3,686
  3,861
  4,046
  4,241
  4,445
  4,661
  4,887
Total equity, $m
  1,043
  1,067
  1,094
  1,125
  1,159
  1,197
  1,237
  1,282
  1,329
  1,380
  1,435
  1,493
  1,555
  1,621
  1,691
  1,765
  1,843
  1,926
  2,014
  2,106
  2,204
  2,307
  2,415
  2,530
  2,650
  2,777
  2,911
  3,051
  3,199
  3,354
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,563
  2,622
  2,689
  2,764
  2,848
  2,941
  3,040
  3,149
  3,265
  3,391
  3,525
  3,668
  3,820
  3,982
  4,154
  4,336
  4,529
  4,732
  4,948
  5,175
  5,415
  5,668
  5,934
  6,216
  6,511
  6,823
  7,152
  7,496
  7,860
  8,241
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.000
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
  1.110
  1.120
  1.140
  1.150
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  166
  170
  175
  180
  186
  192
  199
  207
  215
  224
  268
  278
  288
  299
  311
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  399
  417
  435
  455
  475
  497
  520
  544
  569
  596
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  114
  116
  117
  119
  121
  124
  126
  129
  132
  135
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
  214
Funds from operations, $m
  280
  286
  292
  300
  307
  316
  326
  336
  347
  359
  359
  373
  387
  403
  419
  436
  455
  474
  495
  516
  539
  563
  589
  616
  644
  674
  705
  738
  773
  810
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  88
Cash from operations, $m
  269
  272
  277
  282
  288
  295
  303
  311
  320
  330
  328
  340
  352
  365
  379
  394
  410
  427
  445
  464
  484
  505
  528
  551
  576
  602
  630
  659
  690
  722
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -204
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -188
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -289
  -303
  -319
Free cash flow, $m
  188
  188
  189
  190
  191
  194
  196
  200
  204
  208
  200
  205
  211
  218
  225
  232
  240
  249
  258
  268
  278
  289
  301
  313
  326
  340
  355
  370
  386
  403
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  175
  185
  194
  205
  215
  226
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  167
  175
  185
  194
  205
  215
  226
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  219
  223
  229
  235
  241
  248
  256
  264
  273
  282
  280
  290
  302
  314
  327
  340
  354
  370
  386
  402
  420
  439
  459
  480
  502
  525
  549
  575
  602
  630
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -155
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  90
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  289
  199
  201
  204
  207
  211
  215
  220
  225
  231
  225
  232
  240
  248
  257
  266
  276
  287
  298
  310
  323
  336
  350
  365
  381
  398
  416
  434
  454
  474
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  277
  182
  175
  168
  160
  153
  145
  137
  129
  121
  107
  99
  91
  83
  75
  68
  60
  53
  46
  39
  33
  28
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Valmont Industries, Inc. is a producer of fabricated metal products, and steel, aluminum and composite pole, tower and other structures, and mechanized irrigation systems. The Company's segments are Engineered Support Structures (ESS); Utility Support Structures; Energy and Mining; Coatings; Irrigation, and Other. The ESS segment manufactures steel, aluminum, and composite poles and structures. The Utility Support Structures Segment manufactures steel and concrete pole structures for electrical transmission, substation and distribution applications. The Energy and Mining Segment produces access systems, which are engineered structures and components that allow people to move safely in an industrial, infrastructure or commercial facility. The Coatings Segment consists of galvanizing, anodizing and powder coating services on a global basis. The Irrigation Segment manufactures and distributes mechanical irrigation equipment and related service parts under the Valley brand name.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Valmont Industries (VMI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.1
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 200
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 80%
Total Debt to Equity 80.2%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Total Capital 10.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Equity 18.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
EBITDA Margin 13.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Operating Margin 9.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 6.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 19.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
Payout Ratio 19.7%

VMI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VMI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2745.967 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Valmont Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Valmont Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VMI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VMI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Valmont Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Valmont Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VMI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $14 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VMI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Valmont Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Valmont Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VMI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VMI are equal to 27.5%.

Life of production assets of 11.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Valmont Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VMI is equal to 21%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1112.836 million for Valmont Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 22.408 million for Valmont Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Valmont Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Valmont Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-04-18 05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Rock Gate Partners Sells Walpar to Valmont Industries   [Aug-09-18 04:06PM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Valmont Industries Acquires Rock Gate's Walpar   [Aug-07-18 12:48PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Valmont: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-23-18 06:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 17th   [Jul-17-18 08:06AM  Zacks]
▶ Valmont Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-04-18 11:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Valmont Completes Divestiture of Donhad Pty. Ltd.   [Apr-30-18 05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Valmont: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-18-18 06:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Gabelli & Companys 12th Annual Omaha Research Trip   [Apr-09-18 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Valmont Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-05-18 11:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Valmont reports 4Q loss   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Valmont Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-04-17 11:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Valmont misses 3Q profit forecasts   [07:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Valmont Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Oct-18-17 05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Valmont Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-05-17 11:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Valmont Announces Sale of Mining Consumables Business   [Aug-24-17 11:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Valmont beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-19-17 10:56PM  Associated Press]

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