Intrinsic value of VOXX International - VOXX

Previous Close

$5.07

  Intrinsic Value

$2.86

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-44%

Previous close

$5.07

 
Intrinsic value

$2.86

 
Up/down potential

-44%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of VOXX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  517
  529
  543
  558
  575
  593
  614
  636
  659
  684
  711
  740
  771
  804
  838
  875
  914
  955
  999
  1,045
  1,093
  1,144
  1,198
  1,255
  1,314
  1,377
  1,443
  1,513
  1,586
  1,663
Variable operating expenses, $m
  525
  537
  550
  565
  581
  599
  619
  641
  664
  688
  694
  722
  752
  784
  818
  854
  892
  932
  974
  1,019
  1,066
  1,116
  1,169
  1,224
  1,282
  1,344
  1,408
  1,476
  1,548
  1,623
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  525
  537
  550
  565
  581
  599
  619
  641
  664
  688
  694
  722
  752
  784
  818
  854
  892
  932
  974
  1,019
  1,066
  1,116
  1,169
  1,224
  1,282
  1,344
  1,408
  1,476
  1,548
  1,623
Operating income, $m
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
EBITDA, $m
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
Earnings before tax, $m
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Net income, $m
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  587
  601
  616
  633
  653
  674
  697
  721
  748
  777
  808
  840
  875
  912
  952
  993
  1,038
  1,084
  1,134
  1,186
  1,241
  1,299
  1,360
  1,424
  1,492
  1,563
  1,638
  1,717
  1,801
  1,888
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  587
  601
  616
  633
  653
  674
  697
  721
  748
  777
  808
  840
  875
  912
  952
  993
  1,038
  1,084
  1,134
  1,186
  1,241
  1,299
  1,360
  1,424
  1,492
  1,563
  1,638
  1,717
  1,801
  1,888
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.881
  0.880
  0.881
  0.882
  0.881
  0.880
  0.881
  0.882
  0.881
  0.880
  0.880
  0.881
  0.881
  0.882
  0.880
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
Average production assets, $m
  172
  176
  181
  186
  191
  198
  204
  212
  219
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
Working capital, $m
  129
  132
  135
  139
  143
  148
  153
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  285
  298
  312
  327
  343
  359
  377
  395
  414
Total debt, $m
  19
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  53
  59
  65
  72
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  123
  133
  144
  155
  167
  180
  193
  208
  222
  238
  254
  272
  290
Total liabilities, $m
  122
  125
  128
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  341
  357
  375
  393
Total equity, $m
  465
  476
  488
  502
  517
  534
  552
  571
  593
  615
  640
  666
  693
  723
  754
  787
  822
  859
  898
  939
  983
  1,028
  1,077
  1,128
  1,182
  1,238
  1,298
  1,360
  1,426
  1,495
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  587
  601
  616
  634
  653
  674
  697
  721
  749
  777
  808
  841
  875
  913
  952
  994
  1,038
  1,085
  1,134
  1,186
  1,241
  1,298
  1,360
  1,424
  1,492
  1,563
  1,639
  1,717
  1,801
  1,888
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  30
  31
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  33
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
Funds from operations, $m
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
Cash from operations, $m
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
Free cash flow, $m
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  21
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  22
  24
  26
  29
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  52
  54
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  77
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  8
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  94.5
  89.0
  83.6
  78.3
  73.2
  68.3
  63.7
  59.3
  55.1
  51.2
  49.4
  47.6
  45.7
  43.9
  42.0
  40.2
  38.4
  36.6
  34.9
  33.2
  31.5
  30.0
  28.4
  27.0
  25.5
  24.2
  22.9
  21.6
  20.4
  19.3

VOXX International Corporation is an international manufacturer and distributor in the automotive, audio and consumer accessories industries. The Company's segments include Automotive, Premium Audio and Consumer Accessories. The Automotive segment designs, manufactures, distributes and markets rear-seat entertainment devices, satellite radio products, remote start systems, digital television tuners, mobile antennas, mobile multimedia devices, car link-smartphone telematics application, collision avoidance systems and others. The Premium Audio segment designs, manufactures, distributes and markets home theater systems, outdoor speakers, iPod/computer speakers, business music systems, cinema speakers, flat panel speakers, Bluetooth speakers and others. The Consumer Accessories segment designs and markets remote controls, rechargeable battery packs, wireless and Bluetooth speakers, Singtrix karaoke products, 360 Fly Action Cameras, personal sound amplifiers and others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  VOXX International (VOXX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.6
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -61.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -8.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 25.4%
Total Debt to Equity 27.7%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Total Capital 0.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Return On Equity 1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
EBITDA Margin 3.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate -200%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

VOXX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VOXX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $507.092 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by VOXX International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of VOXX International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VOXX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for VOXX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of VOXX International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of VOXX International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VOXX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VOXX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.6% for VOXX International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for VOXX International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VOXX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VOXX are equal to 33.3%.

Life of production assets of 18 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in VOXX International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VOXX is equal to 24.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $455.948 million for VOXX International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.938 million for VOXX International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of VOXX International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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