Intrinsic value of ViaSat - VSAT

Previous Close

$76.44

  Intrinsic Value

$6.93

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$76.44

 
Intrinsic value

$6.93

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of VSAT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.02
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,559
  1,590
  1,627
  1,669
  1,715
  1,768
  1,825
  1,887
  1,954
  2,026
  2,104
  2,187
  2,276
  2,371
  2,471
  2,578
  2,691
  2,810
  2,937
  3,070
  3,211
  3,360
  3,517
  3,683
  3,857
  4,041
  4,234
  4,438
  4,652
  4,877
  5,114
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,544
  1,579
  1,619
  1,665
  1,715
  1,770
  1,829
  1,894
  1,964
  2,039
  2,107
  2,193
  2,284
  2,380
  2,483
  2,592
  2,707
  2,829
  2,958
  3,094
  3,237
  3,388
  3,548
  3,716
  3,892
  4,079
  4,275
  4,481
  4,698
  4,926
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,523
  1,544
  1,579
  1,619
  1,665
  1,715
  1,770
  1,829
  1,894
  1,964
  2,039
  2,107
  2,193
  2,284
  2,380
  2,483
  2,592
  2,707
  2,829
  2,958
  3,094
  3,237
  3,388
  3,548
  3,716
  3,892
  4,079
  4,275
  4,481
  4,698
  4,926
Operating income, $m
  36
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
EBITDA, $m
  282
  294
  300
  308
  317
  327
  337
  349
  361
  374
  389
  404
  420
  438
  456
  476
  497
  519
  542
  567
  593
  621
  650
  680
  713
  746
  782
  820
  859
  901
  945
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  121
Earnings before tax, $m
  25
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
Tax expense, $m
  3
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
Net income, $m
  24
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  130
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,955
  2,881
  2,947
  3,023
  3,108
  3,202
  3,305
  3,418
  3,540
  3,671
  3,812
  3,963
  4,124
  4,295
  4,477
  4,670
  4,875
  5,091
  5,320
  5,562
  5,818
  6,088
  6,372
  6,672
  6,988
  7,320
  7,670
  8,039
  8,427
  8,835
  9,264
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,825
  2,881
  2,947
  3,023
  3,108
  3,202
  3,305
  3,418
  3,540
  3,671
  3,812
  3,963
  4,124
  4,295
  4,477
  4,670
  4,875
  5,091
  5,320
  5,562
  5,818
  6,088
  6,372
  6,672
  6,988
  7,320
  7,670
  8,039
  8,427
  8,835
  9,264
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
Average production assets, $m
  1,755
  1,789
  1,830
  1,877
  1,930
  1,988
  2,053
  2,123
  2,198
  2,280
  2,367
  2,461
  2,561
  2,667
  2,780
  2,900
  3,027
  3,162
  3,304
  3,454
  3,613
  3,780
  3,957
  4,143
  4,339
  4,546
  4,763
  4,992
  5,233
  5,487
  5,753
Working capital, $m
  289
  162
  166
  170
  175
  180
  186
  192
  199
  207
  215
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  274
  287
  300
  313
  328
  343
  359
  376
  393
  412
  432
  453
  474
  497
  522
Total debt, $m
  849
  873
  902
  935
  972
  1,012
  1,057
  1,106
  1,158
  1,215
  1,276
  1,341
  1,410
  1,484
  1,563
  1,646
  1,735
  1,828
  1,927
  2,032
  2,142
  2,259
  2,382
  2,511
  2,648
  2,791
  2,943
  3,102
  3,269
  3,446
  3,631
Total liabilities, $m
  1,220
  1,244
  1,273
  1,306
  1,343
  1,383
  1,428
  1,477
  1,529
  1,586
  1,647
  1,712
  1,781
  1,855
  1,934
  2,017
  2,106
  2,199
  2,298
  2,403
  2,513
  2,630
  2,753
  2,882
  3,019
  3,162
  3,314
  3,473
  3,640
  3,817
  4,002
Total equity, $m
  1,735
  1,636
  1,674
  1,717
  1,765
  1,819
  1,877
  1,941
  2,011
  2,085
  2,165
  2,251
  2,342
  2,439
  2,543
  2,652
  2,769
  2,892
  3,022
  3,159
  3,305
  3,458
  3,619
  3,790
  3,969
  4,158
  4,357
  4,566
  4,787
  5,018
  5,262
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,955
  2,880
  2,947
  3,023
  3,108
  3,202
  3,305
  3,418
  3,540
  3,671
  3,812
  3,963
  4,123
  4,294
  4,477
  4,669
  4,875
  5,091
  5,320
  5,562
  5,818
  6,088
  6,372
  6,672
  6,988
  7,320
  7,671
  8,039
  8,427
  8,835
  9,264
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.489
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  246
  247
  253
  259
  266
  274
  282
  291
  301
  312
  323
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  398
  416
  435
  454
  475
  497
  521
  545
  571
  598
  627
  657
  689
  722
  757
Funds from operations, $m
  454
  260
  265
  272
  279
  287
  296
  306
  317
  328
  340
  350
  364
  378
  394
  411
  428
  447
  467
  488
  509
  533
  557
  583
  610
  639
  669
  701
  734
  769
  806
Change in working capital, $m
  43
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Cash from operations, $m
  411
  256
  262
  268
  274
  282
  291
  300
  310
  321
  332
  341
  355
  369
  384
  400
  417
  435
  454
  474
  495
  518
  541
  566
  592
  620
  649
  680
  712
  746
  782
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -231
  -235
  -241
  -247
  -254
  -262
  -270
  -279
  -289
  -300
  -311
  -324
  -337
  -351
  -366
  -382
  -398
  -416
  -435
  -454
  -475
  -497
  -521
  -545
  -571
  -598
  -627
  -657
  -689
  -722
New CAPEX, $m
  -586
  -34
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -159
  -167
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -267
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -715
  -265
  -276
  -288
  -300
  -313
  -326
  -340
  -355
  -371
  -387
  -405
  -424
  -443
  -464
  -486
  -509
  -533
  -558
  -585
  -613
  -642
  -674
  -707
  -741
  -778
  -816
  -856
  -898
  -942
  -989
Free cash flow, $m
  -304
  -9
  -15
  -20
  -25
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -207
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -103
  24
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  123
  130
  136
  144
  151
  159
  168
  176
  185
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  504
  19
  25
  30
  35
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  63
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  175
  185
  195
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  393
  43
  54
  63
  72
  81
  89
  98
  107
  116
  124
  125
  134
  144
  154
  164
  174
  186
  197
  209
  221
  234
  248
  262
  276
  292
  308
  325
  343
  361
  380
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  88
  35
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -606
  -31
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -232
  -244
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  130
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  133
  1
  0
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
Discount rate, %
 
  4.80
  5.04
  5.29
  5.56
  5.83
  6.13
  6.43
  6.75
  7.09
  7.45
  7.82
  8.21
  8.62
  9.05
  9.50
  9.98
  10.48
  11.00
  11.55
  12.13
  12.74
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.48
  16.25
  17.07
  17.92
  18.82
  19.76
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  127
  1
  0
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.5
  98.9
  98.3
  97.5
  96.6
  95.7
  94.8
  93.7
  92.7
  91.6
  90.6
  89.6
  88.6
  87.5
  86.5
  85.4
  84.3
  83.2
  82.1
  81.0
  79.9
  78.8
  77.7
  76.6
  75.5
  74.4
  73.3
  72.2
  71.1
  70.1

ViaSat, Inc. is engaged in broadband technologies and services. The Company operates through three segments: satellite services, commercial networks and government systems. The satellite services segment provides satellite-based broadband services to consumers, enterprises, commercial airlines and mobile broadband customers primarily in the United States. The commercial networks segment develops and produces a range of end-to-end satellite and wireless communication systems, ground networking equipment and space-to-earth connectivity systems. The government systems segment develops and produces network-centric Internet Protocol (IP)-based fixed and mobile secure government communications systems, products, services and solutions, which are designed to enable the collection and dissemination of real-time digital information between command centers, communications nodes and air defense systems.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ViaSat (VSAT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 183.5
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -25.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 48.9%
Total Debt to Equity 48.9%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Total Capital 1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Equity 1.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.2%
EBITDA Margin 18%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
Operating Margin 2.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Net Profit Margin 1.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Effective Tax Rate 12%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

VSAT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VSAT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1559 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ViaSat. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of ViaSat. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VSAT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.8%, whose default value for VSAT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ViaSat, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ViaSat.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VSAT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VSAT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ViaSat.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ViaSat. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VSAT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VSAT are equal to 112.5%.

Life of production assets of 7.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ViaSat operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VSAT is equal to 10.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1735 million for ViaSat - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.25 million for ViaSat is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ViaSat at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Viasat Appoints Sean Pak to Board of Directors   [Jan-11-18 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: Viasat   [Dec-26-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Viasat Unveils New Global Brand Identity   [Nov-30-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ViaSat (VSAT) in Focus: Stock Moves 5.4% Higher   [Nov-13-17 08:46AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ViaSat, Inc. : November 9, 2017   [Nov-09-17 01:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ViaSat reports 2Q loss   [Nov-08-17 05:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ You Won't Guess Seth Klarman's Biggest Position   [Sep-29-17 05:49PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ViaSat, Inc. : September 6, 2017   [Sep-05-17 10:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ViaSat Opens New Asia-Pacific Headquarters in Melbourne   [Aug-28-17 09:22PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ViaSat reports 1Q loss   [Aug-08-17 05:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ ViaSat Welcomes Varsha Rao to Board of Directors   [Jul-12-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Inmarsat Aims High on In-Flight Wi-Fi   [Jun-30-17 12:18AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Inmarsat Aims High on In-Flight Wi-Fi   [Jun-29-17 03:34AM  The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of VSAT
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