Intrinsic value of VSE - VSEC

Previous Close

$30.10

  Intrinsic Value

$49.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+65%

Previous close

$30.10

 
Intrinsic value

$49.57

 
Up/down potential

+65%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of VSEC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  775
  793
  814
  836
  862
  890
  920
  953
  988
  1,026
  1,067
  1,110
  1,156
  1,205
  1,257
  1,312
  1,370
  1,432
  1,497
  1,566
  1,638
  1,715
  1,796
  1,881
  1,970
  2,064
  2,164
  2,268
  2,378
  2,493
Variable operating expenses, $m
  717
  732
  750
  771
  793
  818
  844
  873
  905
  938
  943
  981
  1,022
  1,065
  1,111
  1,160
  1,212
  1,266
  1,324
  1,385
  1,449
  1,516
  1,588
  1,663
  1,742
  1,825
  1,913
  2,006
  2,103
  2,205
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  717
  732
  750
  771
  793
  818
  844
  873
  905
  938
  943
  981
  1,022
  1,065
  1,111
  1,160
  1,212
  1,266
  1,324
  1,385
  1,449
  1,516
  1,588
  1,663
  1,742
  1,825
  1,913
  2,006
  2,103
  2,205
Operating income, $m
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  88
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  190
  198
  208
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
  289
EBITDA, $m
  105
  107
  110
  113
  117
  120
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
Earnings before tax, $m
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  107
  111
  115
  120
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  239
Tax expense, $m
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
Net income, $m
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  152
  160
  167
  175

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  642
  657
  673
  692
  713
  736
  762
  789
  818
  849
  883
  919
  957
  997
  1,040
  1,086
  1,134
  1,185
  1,239
  1,296
  1,356
  1,420
  1,486
  1,557
  1,631
  1,709
  1,791
  1,877
  1,968
  2,064
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  642
  657
  673
  692
  713
  736
  762
  789
  818
  849
  883
  919
  957
  997
  1,040
  1,086
  1,134
  1,185
  1,239
  1,296
  1,356
  1,420
  1,486
  1,557
  1,631
  1,709
  1,791
  1,877
  1,968
  2,064
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.207
  1.207
  1.210
  1.208
  1.209
  1.209
  1.207
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.209
  1.209
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.209
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
Average production assets, $m
  222
  227
  233
  239
  246
  254
  263
  272
  283
  293
  305
  317
  331
  345
  359
  375
  392
  410
  428
  448
  469
  490
  514
  538
  563
  590
  619
  649
  680
  713
Working capital, $m
  143
  147
  151
  155
  159
  165
  170
  176
  183
  190
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  253
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  364
  382
  400
  420
  440
  461
Total debt, $m
  200
  208
  217
  227
  238
  250
  264
  278
  294
  311
  329
  348
  368
  390
  413
  437
  463
  490
  519
  549
  581
  615
  651
  689
  728
  770
  814
  860
  908
  959
Total liabilities, $m
  343
  351
  360
  370
  381
  393
  407
  421
  437
  454
  471
  491
  511
  533
  556
  580
  606
  633
  662
  692
  724
  758
  794
  831
  871
  913
  956
  1,003
  1,051
  1,102
Total equity, $m
  299
  306
  314
  323
  332
  343
  355
  368
  381
  396
  411
  428
  446
  465
  485
  506
  529
  552
  577
  604
  632
  662
  693
  725
  760
  796
  835
  875
  917
  962
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  642
  657
  674
  693
  713
  736
  762
  789
  818
  850
  882
  919
  957
  998
  1,041
  1,086
  1,135
  1,185
  1,239
  1,296
  1,356
  1,420
  1,487
  1,556
  1,631
  1,709
  1,791
  1,878
  1,968
  2,064
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  152
  160
  167
  175
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  46
  47
  47
  47
  48
  48
  49
  50
  50
  51
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
Funds from operations, $m
  82
  83
  85
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  100
  104
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Cash from operations, $m
  79
  80
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  97
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
Free cash flow, $m
  59
  59
  60
  60
  61
  62
  63
  64
  65
  66
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  77
  80
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  60
  60
  61
  61
  62
  63
  64
  65
  67
  68
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
Discount rate, %
  6.40
  6.72
  7.06
  7.41
  7.78
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.93
  10.42
  10.95
  11.49
  12.07
  12.67
  13.31
  13.97
  14.67
  15.40
  16.17
  16.98
  17.83
  18.72
  19.66
  20.64
  21.67
  22.76
  23.89
  25.09
  26.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  57
  53
  50
  46
  43
  39
  36
  33
  30
  27
  21
  18
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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VSE Corporation is a services and supply chain management company. The Company's segments include Supply Chain Management Group, Aviation Group, Federal Services Group, and IT, Energy and Management Consulting Group. The Company provides logistics and distribution services for legacy systems and equipment and professional and technical services to the United States Government, including the United States Department of Defense (DoD), the United States Postal Service (USPS), federal civilian agencies, and commercial and other customers. The Company's service offerings include supply chain and inventory management services; vehicle fleet sustainment programs; vehicle fleet parts supply and distribution; maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) of aircraft engines and engine components; aircraft engine parts supply and distribution; engineering support for military vehicles; military equipment refurbishment and modification, and ship MRO and follow-on technical support.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  VSE (VSEC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 29.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 84.7%
Total Debt to Equity 92.9%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 5.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Equity 11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
EBITDA Margin 11%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Operating Margin 7.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 35.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
Payout Ratio 7.4%

VSEC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VSEC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $760.113 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by VSE. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of VSE. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VSEC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.4%, whose default value for VSEC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of VSE, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of VSE.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VSEC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VSEC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for VSE.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for VSE. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VSEC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VSEC are equal to 28.6%.

Life of production assets of 14.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in VSE operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VSEC is equal to 18.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $293.095 million for VSE - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.881 million for VSE is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of VSE at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ VSE: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Oct-30-18 04:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ VSE Corporation Receives $46.3M in New Awards   [Oct-11-18 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is VSE Corporation (NASDAQ:VSEC) A Financially Sound Company?   [Oct-05-18 02:51PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ VSE: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-26-18 05:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Stocks Wall Street Hasn't Heard of Yet   [Jun-27-18 09:16AM  Motley Fool]
▶ VSE Declares a $0.08 per Share Cash Dividend   [May-01-18 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-30-18 06:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Cheap Stocks This Week   [Apr-04-18 10:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ VSE Awarded $28.5M Aircraft Fleet Maintenance Task Order   [Mar-19-18 05:39PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE posts 4Q profit   [Mar-01-18 07:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ Three Stocks Trading At A Massive Discount   [Jan-23-18 09:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ November Undervalued Opportunities Socket Mobile And More   [Nov-28-17 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to VSE Corp. : November 13, 2017   [Nov-13-17 01:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to VSE Corp. : October 31, 2017   [Oct-31-17 11:56AM  Capital Cube]
▶ VSE posts 3Q profit   [Oct-26-17 05:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ VSE Celebrates 35th Nasdaq Listing Anniversary   [Oct-23-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Corporation Awarded $35.6M in New Delivery Order Awards   [Oct-18-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Corporation Awarded $57.4M in FMS Delivery Orders   [Sep-05-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Reports Financial Results for Second Quarter 2017   [Jul-27-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Corporation Receives $46.2M in New Awards   [Jul-18-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Awarded $22.3M Air Force Ground Equipment Task Order   [Jun-14-17 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE Declares a $0.07 Per Share Cash Dividend   [May-03-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ VSE posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 07:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ VSE posts 4Q profit   [Feb-27-17 07:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to VSE Corp. : January 17, 2017   [Jan-17-17 01:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ VSE Corporation Awarded $53.4M in FMS Delivery Orders   [Oct-11-16 05:00PM  Business Wire]

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