Intrinsic value of Versum Materials - VSM

Previous Close

$33.57

  Intrinsic Value

$22.11

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-34%

Previous close

$33.57

 
Intrinsic value

$22.11

 
Up/down potential

-34%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of VSM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.40
  18.86
  17.47
  16.23
  15.10
  14.09
  13.18
  12.37
  11.63
  10.97
  10.37
  9.83
  9.35
  8.91
  8.52
  8.17
  7.85
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.69
  6.52
  6.36
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
Revenue, $m
  1,357
  1,613
  1,894
  2,202
  2,534
  2,892
  3,273
  3,678
  4,105
  4,555
  5,028
  5,522
  6,039
  6,577
  7,137
  7,721
  8,327
  8,957
  9,612
  10,293
  11,000
  11,735
  12,500
  13,296
  14,124
  14,986
  15,884
  16,821
  17,798
  18,817
Variable operating expenses, $m
  965
  1,142
  1,337
  1,550
  1,780
  2,028
  2,292
  2,572
  2,868
  3,180
  3,482
  3,824
  4,182
  4,555
  4,943
  5,347
  5,767
  6,203
  6,656
  7,128
  7,618
  8,127
  8,656
  9,207
  9,781
  10,378
  11,000
  11,649
  12,325
  13,031
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  965
  1,142
  1,337
  1,550
  1,780
  2,028
  2,292
  2,572
  2,868
  3,180
  3,482
  3,824
  4,182
  4,555
  4,943
  5,347
  5,767
  6,203
  6,656
  7,128
  7,618
  8,127
  8,656
  9,207
  9,781
  10,378
  11,000
  11,649
  12,325
  13,031
Operating income, $m
  392
  471
  557
  652
  754
  864
  981
  1,105
  1,237
  1,375
  1,546
  1,698
  1,857
  2,022
  2,195
  2,374
  2,560
  2,754
  2,956
  3,165
  3,382
  3,608
  3,844
  4,088
  4,343
  4,608
  4,884
  5,172
  5,473
  5,786
EBITDA, $m
  460
  547
  643
  747
  860
  981
  1,110
  1,248
  1,393
  1,546
  1,706
  1,874
  2,049
  2,231
  2,422
  2,619
  2,825
  3,039
  3,261
  3,492
  3,732
  3,981
  4,241
  4,511
  4,792
  5,084
  5,389
  5,707
  6,038
  6,384
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  53
  52
  64
  78
  93
  109
  126
  145
  164
  185
  207
  230
  254
  279
  305
  333
  361
  391
  421
  453
  486
  521
  556
  594
  632
  673
  715
  758
  804
  851
Earnings before tax, $m
  339
  419
  493
  574
  661
  755
  855
  961
  1,073
  1,190
  1,339
  1,468
  1,603
  1,743
  1,889
  2,041
  2,199
  2,364
  2,534
  2,712
  2,896
  3,088
  3,287
  3,495
  3,711
  3,935
  4,170
  4,414
  4,669
  4,934
Tax expense, $m
  91
  113
  133
  155
  179
  204
  231
  259
  290
  321
  361
  396
  433
  471
  510
  551
  594
  638
  684
  732
  782
  834
  888
  944
  1,002
  1,063
  1,126
  1,192
  1,261
  1,332
Net income, $m
  247
  306
  360
  419
  483
  551
  624
  701
  783
  869
  977
  1,072
  1,170
  1,272
  1,379
  1,490
  1,605
  1,725
  1,850
  1,980
  2,114
  2,254
  2,400
  2,551
  2,709
  2,873
  3,044
  3,222
  3,408
  3,602

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,358
  1,614
  1,896
  2,204
  2,537
  2,895
  3,276
  3,681
  4,109
  4,560
  5,033
  5,528
  6,045
  6,583
  7,145
  7,728
  8,335
  8,966
  9,622
  10,303
  11,011
  11,747
  12,513
  13,309
  14,138
  15,001
  15,900
  16,838
  17,815
  18,835
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,358
  1,614
  1,896
  2,204
  2,537
  2,895
  3,276
  3,681
  4,109
  4,560
  5,033
  5,528
  6,045
  6,583
  7,145
  7,728
  8,335
  8,966
  9,622
  10,303
  11,011
  11,747
  12,513
  13,309
  14,138
  15,001
  15,900
  16,838
  17,815
  18,835
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
  0.999
Average production assets, $m
  531
  631
  741
  861
  991
  1,131
  1,280
  1,438
  1,605
  1,781
  1,966
  2,159
  2,361
  2,572
  2,791
  3,019
  3,256
  3,502
  3,758
  4,024
  4,301
  4,588
  4,888
  5,199
  5,522
  5,860
  6,211
  6,577
  6,959
  7,357
Working capital, $m
  221
  263
  309
  359
  413
  471
  533
  599
  669
  743
  820
  900
  984
  1,072
  1,163
  1,258
  1,357
  1,460
  1,567
  1,678
  1,793
  1,913
  2,038
  2,167
  2,302
  2,443
  2,589
  2,742
  2,901
  3,067
Total debt, $m
  954
  1,185
  1,439
  1,715
  2,015
  2,337
  2,680
  3,045
  3,430
  3,836
  4,261
  4,707
  5,172
  5,657
  6,162
  6,687
  7,234
  7,801
  8,391
  9,004
  9,642
  10,304
  10,993
  11,710
  12,456
  13,233
  14,042
  14,886
  15,766
  16,684
Total liabilities, $m
  1,222
  1,453
  1,707
  1,984
  2,283
  2,605
  2,949
  3,313
  3,698
  4,104
  4,530
  4,975
  5,440
  5,925
  6,430
  6,955
  7,502
  8,069
  8,659
  9,273
  9,910
  10,572
  11,261
  11,978
  12,724
  13,501
  14,310
  15,154
  16,034
  16,952
Total equity, $m
  136
  161
  190
  220
  254
  289
  328
  368
  411
  456
  503
  553
  604
  658
  714
  773
  834
  897
  962
  1,030
  1,101
  1,175
  1,251
  1,331
  1,414
  1,500
  1,590
  1,684
  1,782
  1,884
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,358
  1,614
  1,897
  2,204
  2,537
  2,894
  3,277
  3,681
  4,109
  4,560
  5,033
  5,528
  6,044
  6,583
  7,144
  7,728
  8,336
  8,966
  9,621
  10,303
  11,011
  11,747
  12,512
  13,309
  14,138
  15,001
  15,900
  16,838
  17,816
  18,836
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.030
  7.340
  7.590
  7.780
  7.940
  8.070
  8.180
  8.270
  8.350
  8.410
  8.470
  8.510
  8.560
  8.590
  8.620
  8.650
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.740
  8.760
  8.770
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
  8.820
  8.830
  8.840
  8.850
  8.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  247
  306
  360
  419
  483
  551
  624
  701
  783
  869
  977
  1,072
  1,170
  1,272
  1,379
  1,490
  1,605
  1,725
  1,850
  1,980
  2,114
  2,254
  2,400
  2,551
  2,709
  2,873
  3,044
  3,222
  3,408
  3,602
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  68
  77
  86
  95
  106
  117
  129
  142
  156
  170
  160
  176
  192
  209
  227
  245
  265
  285
  306
  327
  350
  373
  397
  423
  449
  476
  505
  535
  566
  598
Funds from operations, $m
  316
  382
  446
  514
  589
  668
  753
  844
  939
  1,039
  1,137
  1,247
  1,362
  1,481
  1,606
  1,736
  1,870
  2,010
  2,156
  2,307
  2,464
  2,627
  2,797
  2,974
  3,158
  3,349
  3,549
  3,757
  3,974
  4,200
Change in working capital, $m
  37
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  153
  159
  166
Cash from operations, $m
  278
  341
  400
  464
  534
  610
  691
  778
  869
  966
  1,060
  1,167
  1,278
  1,394
  1,515
  1,640
  1,771
  1,907
  2,049
  2,196
  2,349
  2,507
  2,672
  2,844
  3,023
  3,209
  3,402
  3,604
  3,815
  4,034
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -43
  -51
  -60
  -70
  -81
  -92
  -104
  -117
  -131
  -145
  -160
  -176
  -192
  -209
  -227
  -245
  -265
  -285
  -306
  -327
  -350
  -373
  -397
  -423
  -449
  -476
  -505
  -535
  -566
New CAPEX, $m
  -90
  -100
  -110
  -120
  -130
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -256
  -266
  -277
  -288
  -299
  -311
  -324
  -337
  -351
  -366
  -382
  -398
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -126
  -143
  -161
  -180
  -200
  -221
  -241
  -262
  -284
  -307
  -330
  -353
  -378
  -402
  -428
  -455
  -482
  -511
  -541
  -572
  -604
  -638
  -672
  -708
  -747
  -786
  -827
  -871
  -917
  -964
Free cash flow, $m
  152
  198
  238
  284
  334
  390
  450
  515
  585
  659
  731
  813
  900
  991
  1,086
  1,186
  1,289
  1,396
  1,508
  1,624
  1,745
  1,870
  2,000
  2,136
  2,276
  2,423
  2,575
  2,733
  2,898
  3,070
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -29
  231
  254
  277
  300
  322
  343
  365
  385
  406
  426
  445
  465
  485
  505
  525
  546
  568
  590
  613
  637
  662
  689
  717
  746
  777
  809
  844
  880
  918
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -17
  231
  254
  277
  300
  322
  343
  365
  385
  406
  426
  445
  465
  485
  505
  525
  546
  568
  590
  613
  637
  662
  689
  717
  746
  777
  809
  844
  880
  918
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  136
  428
  492
  561
  634
  712
  794
  880
  970
  1,065
  1,156
  1,259
  1,365
  1,476
  1,591
  1,711
  1,835
  1,964
  2,098
  2,237
  2,382
  2,533
  2,689
  2,852
  3,022
  3,199
  3,384
  3,577
  3,778
  3,988
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -259
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  113
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -10
  403
  464
  530
  601
  676
  756
  839
  927
  1,020
  1,109
  1,209
  1,314
  1,422
  1,535
  1,653
  1,774
  1,901
  2,032
  2,169
  2,311
  2,459
  2,613
  2,773
  2,939
  3,113
  3,294
  3,483
  3,680
  3,886
Discount rate, %
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -9
  341
  358
  369
  374
  372
  364
  350
  331
  308
  279
  250
  220
  190
  161
  133
  108
  86
  66
  50
  37
  27
  19
  13
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Versum Materials, Inc. is a provider of solutions to the semiconductor and display industries. The Company is engaged in the development, manufacturing, transportation and handling of specialty materials. Its segments include Materials; Delivery Systems and Services (DS&S), and Corporate. The Materials segment is an integrated provider of specialty materials for the electronics industry, focusing on the integrated circuit and flat-panel display markets. The DS&S segment designs, manufactures, installs, operates, and maintains chemical and gas delivery and distribution systems for specialty gases and chemicals delivered directly to its customers' manufacturing tools. The Company is engaged in molecular design and synthesis, purification, advanced analytics, formulation development and containers and delivery systems for the handling of high purity materials.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Versum Materials (VSM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.9
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book -365.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 77.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 21.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 45
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity -9770%
Total Debt to Equity -9830%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Return On Total Capital 21.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Return On Equity -262.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -54.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.3%
EBITDA Margin 26.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
Operating Margin 26.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 22.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Net Profit Margin 17.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Effective Tax Rate 20.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Payout Ratio 5.7%

VSM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VSM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1126.9 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Versum Materials. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Versum Materials. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VSM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for VSM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Versum Materials, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Versum Materials.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VSM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VSM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Versum Materials.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Versum Materials. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VSM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VSM are equal to 39.1%.

Life of production assets of 12.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Versum Materials operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VSM is equal to 16.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-10 million for Versum Materials - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 108.949 million for Versum Materials is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Versum Materials at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Versum Materials Increases Dividend 33%   [Oct-31-18 08:26AM  Business Wire]
▶ Versum Materials, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-07-18 09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Versum Materials Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jul-31-18 08:56PM  Business Wire]
▶ Versum Materials Declares 20% Dividend Increase   [May-02-18 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Versum Materials, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-06-18 08:45AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Versum Materials Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jan-30-18 06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Versum Materials Completes Repricing of Term Loan   [Oct-10-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Versum Materials Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jul-27-17 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Versum Materials: Cramer's Top Takeaways   [May-20-17 06:34AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Versum Materials meets 2Q profit forecasts   [06:41AM  Associated Press]

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