Intrinsic value of Versum Materials - VSM

Previous Close

$36.72

  Intrinsic Value

$8.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-77%

Previous close

$36.72

 
Intrinsic value

$8.35

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of VSM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.87
  19.80
  18.32
  16.99
  15.79
  14.71
  13.74
  12.87
  12.08
  11.37
  10.73
  10.16
  9.64
  9.18
  8.76
  8.39
  8.05
  7.74
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
Revenue, $m
  970
  1,162
  1,375
  1,609
  1,862
  2,136
  2,430
  2,743
  3,074
  3,423
  3,791
  4,176
  4,579
  4,999
  5,437
  5,893
  6,367
  6,860
  7,373
  7,905
  8,458
  9,034
  9,632
  10,254
  10,901
  11,574
  12,276
  13,007
  13,770
  14,565
  15,395
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  903
  1,065
  1,243
  1,436
  1,645
  1,868
  2,106
  2,359
  2,625
  2,905
  3,180
  3,487
  3,807
  4,140
  4,487
  4,848
  5,224
  5,614
  6,019
  6,441
  6,879
  7,334
  7,807
  8,300
  8,813
  9,348
  9,904
  10,485
  11,090
  11,722
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  691
  903
  1,065
  1,243
  1,436
  1,645
  1,868
  2,106
  2,359
  2,625
  2,905
  3,180
  3,487
  3,807
  4,140
  4,487
  4,848
  5,224
  5,614
  6,019
  6,441
  6,879
  7,334
  7,807
  8,300
  8,813
  9,348
  9,904
  10,485
  11,090
  11,722
Operating income, $m
  279
  259
  310
  366
  426
  492
  562
  636
  715
  799
  886
  996
  1,092
  1,193
  1,297
  1,406
  1,519
  1,637
  1,759
  1,886
  2,018
  2,155
  2,298
  2,446
  2,600
  2,761
  2,929
  3,103
  3,285
  3,475
  3,672
EBITDA, $m
  326
  316
  374
  437
  506
  581
  660
  745
  836
  931
  1,030
  1,135
  1,245
  1,359
  1,478
  1,602
  1,731
  1,865
  2,004
  2,149
  2,299
  2,455
  2,618
  2,787
  2,963
  3,146
  3,337
  3,535
  3,743
  3,959
  4,184
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  34
  29
  35
  42
  50
  58
  67
  77
  87
  97
  109
  120
  133
  145
  159
  173
  187
  202
  218
  234
  251
  268
  287
  306
  325
  346
  367
  389
  413
  437
Earnings before tax, $m
  279
  225
  281
  331
  384
  442
  503
  569
  639
  712
  789
  888
  972
  1,060
  1,152
  1,247
  1,346
  1,449
  1,557
  1,668
  1,784
  1,904
  2,029
  2,159
  2,295
  2,436
  2,583
  2,736
  2,895
  3,062
  3,236
Tax expense, $m
  59
  61
  76
  89
  104
  119
  136
  154
  172
  192
  213
  240
  262
  286
  311
  337
  363
  391
  420
  450
  482
  514
  548
  583
  620
  658
  697
  739
  782
  827
  874
Net income, $m
  212
  164
  205
  241
  280
  322
  368
  415
  466
  520
  576
  648
  710
  774
  841
  910
  983
  1,058
  1,136
  1,218
  1,302
  1,390
  1,481
  1,576
  1,675
  1,778
  1,885
  1,997
  2,114
  2,235
  2,362

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  106
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,044
  1,124
  1,330
  1,556
  1,801
  2,066
  2,350
  2,652
  2,973
  3,311
  3,666
  4,039
  4,428
  4,835
  5,258
  5,699
  6,158
  6,635
  7,130
  7,645
  8,180
  8,737
  9,315
  9,916
  10,542
  11,194
  11,872
  12,580
  13,317
  14,086
  14,888
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  938
  1,124
  1,330
  1,556
  1,801
  2,066
  2,350
  2,652
  2,973
  3,311
  3,666
  4,039
  4,428
  4,835
  5,258
  5,699
  6,158
  6,635
  7,130
  7,645
  8,180
  8,737
  9,315
  9,916
  10,542
  11,194
  11,872
  12,580
  13,317
  14,086
  14,888
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
Average production assets, $m
  378
  452
  535
  626
  725
  831
  945
  1,067
  1,196
  1,332
  1,475
  1,625
  1,781
  1,945
  2,115
  2,292
  2,477
  2,669
  2,868
  3,075
  3,290
  3,514
  3,747
  3,989
  4,240
  4,502
  4,775
  5,060
  5,356
  5,666
  5,988
Working capital, $m
  364
  316
  374
  438
  507
  581
  661
  746
  836
  931
  1,031
  1,136
  1,245
  1,360
  1,479
  1,603
  1,732
  1,866
  2,005
  2,150
  2,301
  2,457
  2,620
  2,789
  2,965
  3,148
  3,339
  3,538
  3,745
  3,962
  4,187
Total debt, $m
  986
  816
  1,002
  1,205
  1,426
  1,665
  1,920
  2,192
  2,481
  2,785
  3,105
  3,440
  3,790
  4,156
  4,538
  4,934
  5,347
  5,776
  6,222
  6,686
  7,167
  7,668
  8,188
  8,730
  9,293
  9,879
  10,490
  11,127
  11,790
  12,482
  13,204
Total liabilities, $m
  1,181
  1,011
  1,197
  1,400
  1,621
  1,860
  2,115
  2,387
  2,676
  2,980
  3,300
  3,635
  3,985
  4,351
  4,733
  5,129
  5,542
  5,971
  6,417
  6,881
  7,362
  7,863
  8,383
  8,925
  9,488
  10,074
  10,685
  11,322
  11,985
  12,677
  13,399
Total equity, $m
  -137
  112
  133
  156
  180
  207
  235
  265
  297
  331
  367
  404
  443
  483
  526
  570
  616
  663
  713
  765
  818
  874
  931
  992
  1,054
  1,119
  1,187
  1,258
  1,332
  1,409
  1,489
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,044
  1,123
  1,330
  1,556
  1,801
  2,067
  2,350
  2,652
  2,973
  3,311
  3,667
  4,039
  4,428
  4,834
  5,259
  5,699
  6,158
  6,634
  7,130
  7,646
  8,180
  8,737
  9,314
  9,917
  10,542
  11,193
  11,872
  12,580
  13,317
  14,086
  14,888
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -7.197
  7.260
  7.530
  7.750
  7.920
  8.060
  8.170
  8.260
  8.340
  8.410
  8.470
  8.520
  8.560
  8.600
  8.630
  8.660
  8.680
  8.710
  8.730
  8.740
  8.760
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
  8.820
  8.830
  8.840
  8.840
  8.850
  8.860
  8.870
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.259
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  212
  164
  205
  241
  280
  322
  368
  415
  466
  520
  576
  648
  710
  774
  841
  910
  983
  1,058
  1,136
  1,218
  1,302
  1,390
  1,481
  1,576
  1,675
  1,778
  1,885
  1,997
  2,114
  2,235
  2,362
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  57
  64
  71
  80
  89
  99
  109
  120
  132
  144
  139
  152
  166
  181
  196
  212
  228
  245
  263
  281
  300
  320
  341
  362
  385
  408
  432
  458
  484
  512
Funds from operations, $m
  246
  221
  269
  313
  360
  412
  466
  525
  586
  651
  720
  787
  862
  940
  1,021
  1,106
  1,194
  1,286
  1,381
  1,481
  1,583
  1,690
  1,802
  1,917
  2,038
  2,163
  2,294
  2,430
  2,571
  2,719
  2,874
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  52
  58
  64
  69
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  156
  163
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  216
  226
Cash from operations, $m
  253
  169
  211
  249
  291
  337
  386
  440
  496
  556
  620
  682
  752
  826
  902
  982
  1,065
  1,152
  1,242
  1,336
  1,433
  1,534
  1,639
  1,748
  1,862
  1,980
  2,103
  2,231
  2,364
  2,503
  2,648
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -39
  -46
  -53
  -62
  -71
  -81
  -91
  -102
  -114
  -126
  -139
  -152
  -166
  -181
  -196
  -212
  -228
  -245
  -263
  -281
  -300
  -320
  -341
  -362
  -385
  -408
  -432
  -458
  -484
New CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -75
  -83
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -297
  -309
  -323
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -62
  -107
  -122
  -137
  -152
  -169
  -185
  -203
  -220
  -238
  -257
  -276
  -296
  -316
  -336
  -358
  -380
  -404
  -427
  -452
  -478
  -505
  -533
  -562
  -593
  -624
  -658
  -692
  -729
  -767
  -807
Free cash flow, $m
  191
  62
  90
  113
  139
  168
  201
  237
  276
  318
  363
  406
  457
  510
  566
  624
  685
  749
  815
  883
  955
  1,029
  1,106
  1,186
  1,269
  1,355
  1,445
  1,538
  1,635
  1,736
  1,841
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  572
  -164
  185
  203
  221
  238
  255
  272
  288
  304
  320
  335
  351
  366
  381
  397
  413
  429
  446
  463
  482
  501
  520
  541
  563
  586
  611
  636
  664
  692
  722
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  185
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -106
  21
  185
  203
  221
  238
  255
  272
  288
  304
  320
  335
  351
  366
  381
  397
  413
  429
  446
  463
  482
  501
  520
  541
  563
  586
  611
  636
  664
  692
  722
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  88
  83
  275
  316
  360
  407
  457
  509
  565
  622
  683
  741
  807
  876
  947
  1,021
  1,098
  1,178
  1,261
  1,347
  1,436
  1,530
  1,626
  1,727
  1,832
  1,942
  2,056
  2,175
  2,299
  2,428
  2,563
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  846
  -349
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  100
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -166
  255
  293
  335
  380
  428
  479
  533
  589
  648
  704
  768
  835
  905
  977
  1,052
  1,130
  1,211
  1,295
  1,383
  1,474
  1,569
  1,667
  1,770
  1,877
  1,988
  2,104
  2,225
  2,351
  2,483
Discount rate, %
 
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.10
  33.71
  35.40
  37.17
  39.02
  40.97
  43.02
  45.17
  47.43
  49.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -148
  200
  202
  199
  192
  181
  167
  151
  134
  116
  97
  80
  65
  51
  39
  29
  21
  15
  10
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Versum Materials, Inc. is a provider of solutions to the semiconductor and display industries. The Company is engaged in the development, manufacturing, transportation and handling of specialty materials. Its segments include Materials; Delivery Systems and Services (DS&S), and Corporate. The Materials segment is an integrated provider of specialty materials for the electronics industry, focusing on the integrated circuit and flat-panel display markets. The DS&S segment designs, manufactures, installs, operates, and maintains chemical and gas delivery and distribution systems for specialty gases and chemicals delivered directly to its customers' manufacturing tools. The Company is engaged in molecular design and synthesis, purification, advanced analytics, formulation development and containers and delivery systems for the handling of high purity materials.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Versum Materials (VSM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.8
Price to Sales 4.1
Price to Book -29
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 63.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 18
Current Ratio 1
LT Debt to Equity -715.3%
Total Debt to Equity -719.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 22%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
Return On Total Capital 27.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.8%
Return On Equity 74.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.5%
EBITDA Margin 33.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.3%
Operating Margin 28.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 28.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Net Profit Margin 21.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Effective Tax Rate 21.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

VSM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VSM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $970 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Versum Materials. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Versum Materials. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VSM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.1%, whose default value for VSM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Versum Materials, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Versum Materials.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VSM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VSM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Versum Materials.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Versum Materials. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VSM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VSM are equal to 38.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Versum Materials operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VSM is equal to 27.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-137 million for Versum Materials - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 108.844 million for Versum Materials is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Versum Materials at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Versum Materials Completes Repricing of Term Loan   [Oct-10-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Versum Materials Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jul-27-17 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Versum Materials: Cramer's Top Takeaways   [May-20-17 06:34AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Versum Materials meets 2Q profit forecasts   [06:41AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of VSM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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