Intrinsic value of Vertex Energy - VTNR

Previous Close

$1.67

  Intrinsic Value

$0.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

Previous close

$1.67

 
Intrinsic value

$0.10

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of VTNR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  27.10
  24.89
  22.90
  21.11
  19.50
  18.05
  16.74
  15.57
  14.51
  13.56
  12.71
  11.94
  11.24
  10.62
  10.06
  9.55
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
Revenue, $m
  185
  231
  284
  344
  411
  485
  566
  654
  749
  851
  959
  1,073
  1,194
  1,321
  1,454
  1,593
  1,737
  1,888
  2,045
  2,209
  2,379
  2,555
  2,738
  2,929
  3,127
  3,333
  3,547
  3,770
  4,002
  4,244
Variable operating expenses, $m
  172
  214
  263
  318
  380
  448
  523
  604
  692
  785
  883
  989
  1,100
  1,217
  1,339
  1,467
  1,600
  1,739
  1,884
  2,034
  2,191
  2,353
  2,522
  2,698
  2,880
  3,070
  3,267
  3,472
  3,686
  3,909
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
Total operating expenses, $m
  189
  232
  281
  337
  399
  467
  543
  624
  713
  806
  905
  1,011
  1,123
  1,240
  1,363
  1,491
  1,625
  1,764
  1,910
  2,060
  2,218
  2,380
  2,550
  2,727
  2,909
  3,100
  3,298
  3,503
  3,718
  3,942
Operating income, $m
  -4
  -1
  3
  7
  12
  17
  23
  30
  37
  45
  54
  63
  72
  81
  91
  102
  113
  124
  136
  148
  161
  174
  188
  203
  218
  233
  250
  266
  284
  302
EBITDA, $m
  5
  10
  16
  22
  30
  38
  48
  58
  69
  80
  93
  106
  120
  134
  150
  166
  183
  200
  218
  237
  257
  277
  299
  321
  344
  368
  392
  418
  445
  474
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  4
  7
  11
  15
  20
  25
  31
  37
  44
  52
  60
  69
  78
  87
  97
  108
  119
  130
  142
  155
  168
  181
  195
  209
  225
  240
  257
  274
  291
  310
Earnings before tax, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  108
  134
  165
  200
  239
  282
  329
  380
  436
  495
  558
  624
  694
  768
  845
  926
  1,010
  1,098
  1,189
  1,284
  1,383
  1,485
  1,592
  1,703
  1,818
  1,938
  2,062
  2,192
  2,327
  2,467
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  108
  134
  165
  200
  239
  282
  329
  380
  436
  495
  558
  624
  694
  768
  845
  926
  1,010
  1,098
  1,189
  1,284
  1,383
  1,485
  1,592
  1,703
  1,818
  1,938
  2,062
  2,192
  2,327
  2,467
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.713
  1.724
  1.721
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.721
  1.718
  1.719
  1.719
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.721
  1.720
  1.720
  1.719
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.721
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
  1.720
Average production assets, $m
  72
  90
  111
  134
  161
  190
  221
  256
  293
  333
  375
  420
  467
  516
  568
  623
  679
  738
  800
  864
  930
  999
  1,071
  1,145
  1,223
  1,303
  1,387
  1,474
  1,565
  1,659
Working capital, $m
  11
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  56
  62
  69
  77
  84
  92
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
  206
  219
  232
  246
Total debt, $m
  35
  53
  74
  97
  123
  152
  183
  218
  254
  294
  336
  380
  427
  476
  528
  582
  638
  697
  758
  821
  887
  956
  1,027
  1,101
  1,178
  1,258
  1,341
  1,428
  1,518
  1,612
Total liabilities, $m
  72
  90
  110
  134
  160
  188
  220
  254
  291
  330
  372
  417
  464
  513
  565
  619
  675
  733
  794
  858
  924
  992
  1,063
  1,138
  1,214
  1,294
  1,378
  1,464
  1,554
  1,648
Total equity, $m
  36
  45
  55
  66
  79
  94
  109
  126
  145
  164
  185
  207
  230
  255
  281
  307
  335
  364
  395
  426
  459
  493
  529
  565
  604
  643
  685
  728
  773
  819
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  108
  135
  165
  200
  239
  282
  329
  380
  436
  494
  557
  624
  694
  768
  846
  926
  1,010
  1,097
  1,189
  1,284
  1,383
  1,485
  1,592
  1,703
  1,818
  1,937
  2,063
  2,192
  2,327
  2,467
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.990
  1.190
  1.340
  1.460
  1.550
  1.620
  1.680
  1.720
  1.760
  1.790
  1.810
  1.840
  1.850
  1.870
  1.880
  1.890
  1.900
  1.910
  1.920
  1.930
  1.930
  1.940
  1.940
  1.950
  1.950
  1.960
  1.960
  1.960
  1.960
  1.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332
  0.332

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  39
  43
  48
  53
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
Funds from operations, $m
  1
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  17
  20
  24
  28
  33
  37
  42
  47
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  89
  96
  104
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  154
  164
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  -2
  0
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  108
  115
  123
  132
  141
  150
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -143
  -152
  -161
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -25
  -30
  -34
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -70
  -76
  -84
  -90
  -98
  -105
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -165
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
Free cash flow, $m
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -106
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  32
  35
  39
  42
  47
  51
  55
  58
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  101
  105
  110
  113
  118
  122
  127
  131
  137
  142
  148
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
Discount rate, %
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
  34.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  78.6
  64.0
  53.5
  45.7
  39.8
  35.1
  31.4
  28.4
  25.9
  23.8
  22.0
  20.6
  19.3
  18.1
  17.1
  16.2
  15.4
  14.6
  14.0
  13.4
  12.8
  12.3
  11.8
  11.3
  10.9
  10.5
  10.2
  9.8
  9.5
  9.2

Vertex Energy, Inc. is an environmental services company that recycles industrial waste streams and off-specification commercial chemical products. The Company focuses on recycling used motor oil and other petroleum by-products. The Company's segments include the Black Oil, Refining and Marketing, and Recovery divisions. The Company's product categories include Used Motor Oil, Fuel Oil, pyrolysis gasoline (Pygas), Gasoline Blendstock and Base Oil. The Black Oil division is engaged in operations across the used motor oil recycling value chain, including collection, aggregation, transportation, storage, refinement and sales of aggregated feedstock and re-refined products to end users. The Refining and Marketing division is engaged in the aggregation of feedstock, re-refining it into end products, and selling these products to customers. The Recovery division is a provider of generator solutions for the recovery and management of hydrocarbon streams.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Vertex Energy (VTNR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -13.8
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -33.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 1.7%
Total Debt to Equity 24.1%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.9%
Return On Total Capital -5.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -13%
Return On Equity -7.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.3%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
EBITDA Margin 4.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Operating Margin -10.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6%
Net Profit Margin -4.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

VTNR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VTNR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $145.499092 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Vertex Energy. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Vertex Energy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VTNR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.4%, whose default value for VTNR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Vertex Energy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Vertex Energy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VTNR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $17 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VTNR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 20.4% for Vertex Energy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Vertex Energy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VTNR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VTNR are equal to 39.1%.

Life of production assets of 9.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Vertex Energy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VTNR is equal to 5.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $27.985353 million for Vertex Energy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.025 million for Vertex Energy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Vertex Energy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Do Directors Own Vertex Energy Inc (NASDAQ:VTNR) Shares?   [Nov-13-18 10:46AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Vertex Energy: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-06-18 07:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ Vertex Energy: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ Vertex Energy Inc (NASDAQ:VTNR) Is Expected To Breakeven   [Jun-27-18 11:19AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Houston energy CEO: 'We dont have the young talent'   [09:13AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Vertex Energy: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-15-18 07:13AM  Associated Press]
▶ How this former truck driver led the success of his Houston refining company   [Apr-05-18 04:29PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Houston public energy co. seeking PE backing to finish projects   [Apr-02-18 02:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Gabelli & Companys Annual Waste Conference   [Mar-21-18 12:58PM  Business Wire]
▶ Gabelli & Companys Annual Waste Conference   [Mar-07-18 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Vertex Energy reports 4Q loss   [07:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ Vertex Energy reports 3Q loss   [Nov-07-17 07:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 27th   [Oct-27-17 08:37AM  Zacks]
▶ Why Vertex Energy Inc (VTNR) Could Be A Buy   [Sep-22-17 07:16PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Vertex Energy reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 02:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 25th   [Jul-25-17 08:59AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Vertex Energy, Inc. : June 8, 2017   [Jun-08-17 02:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Vertex Energy reports 1Q loss   [07:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Vertex Energy, Inc. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 05:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 21st   [Mar-21-17 09:42AM  Zacks]
▶ Gabelli & Companys Waste & Environmental Services Symposium   [Feb-15-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]

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