Intrinsic value of Valvoline - VVV

Previous Close

$19.60

  Intrinsic Value

$15.76

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-20%

Previous close

$19.60

 
Intrinsic value

$15.76

 
Up/down potential

-20%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of VVV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
Revenue, $m
  2,253
  2,428
  2,611
  2,800
  2,997
  3,202
  3,415
  3,636
  3,866
  4,106
  4,356
  4,616
  4,887
  5,170
  5,465
  5,773
  6,095
  6,432
  6,783
  7,151
  7,535
  7,937
  8,359
  8,799
  9,261
  9,745
  10,252
  10,783
  11,339
  11,923
Variable operating expenses, $m
  869
  934
  1,002
  1,072
  1,145
  1,221
  1,300
  1,382
  1,468
  1,557
  1,616
  1,712
  1,813
  1,918
  2,027
  2,142
  2,261
  2,386
  2,516
  2,652
  2,795
  2,944
  3,100
  3,264
  3,435
  3,615
  3,803
  4,000
  4,206
  4,422
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  804
  822
  840
  859
  877
  897
  916
  937
  957
  978
  1,000
  1,022
  1,044
  1,067
  1,091
  1,115
  1,139
  1,164
  1,190
  1,216
  1,243
  1,270
  1,298
  1,327
  1,356
  1,386
  1,416
  1,447
  1,479
  1,512
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,673
  1,756
  1,842
  1,931
  2,022
  2,118
  2,216
  2,319
  2,425
  2,535
  2,616
  2,734
  2,857
  2,985
  3,118
  3,257
  3,400
  3,550
  3,706
  3,868
  4,038
  4,214
  4,398
  4,591
  4,791
  5,001
  5,219
  5,447
  5,685
  5,934
Operating income, $m
  579
  672
  769
  869
  974
  1,084
  1,198
  1,317
  1,442
  1,571
  1,740
  1,882
  2,030
  2,185
  2,347
  2,517
  2,695
  2,882
  3,077
  3,282
  3,497
  3,723
  3,960
  4,209
  4,470
  4,744
  5,033
  5,336
  5,654
  5,989
EBITDA, $m
  648
  743
  843
  946
  1,055
  1,167
  1,285
  1,407
  1,535
  1,669
  1,808
  1,954
  2,106
  2,265
  2,432
  2,607
  2,790
  2,982
  3,183
  3,393
  3,614
  3,846
  4,090
  4,346
  4,614
  4,896
  5,192
  5,503
  5,830
  6,174
Interest expense (income), $m
  35
  61
  52
  59
  68
  76
  85
  94
  104
  113
  124
  134
  146
  157
  169
  182
  195
  209
  223
  238
  254
  270
  288
  306
  324
  344
  365
  386
  409
  433
  457
Earnings before tax, $m
  519
  620
  709
  802
  898
  999
  1,104
  1,214
  1,328
  1,448
  1,606
  1,736
  1,873
  2,016
  2,165
  2,322
  2,486
  2,658
  2,839
  3,028
  3,227
  3,435
  3,654
  3,884
  4,126
  4,380
  4,647
  4,927
  5,221
  5,531
Tax expense, $m
  140
  168
  192
  217
  243
  270
  298
  328
  359
  391
  434
  469
  506
  544
  585
  627
  671
  718
  766
  818
  871
  928
  987
  1,049
  1,114
  1,183
  1,255
  1,330
  1,410
  1,493
Net income, $m
  379
  453
  518
  585
  656
  729
  806
  886
  970
  1,057
  1,172
  1,268
  1,367
  1,472
  1,581
  1,695
  1,815
  1,941
  2,072
  2,211
  2,356
  2,508
  2,668
  2,836
  3,012
  3,197
  3,392
  3,597
  3,812
  4,038

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,071
  2,232
  2,400
  2,574
  2,755
  2,943
  3,139
  3,342
  3,554
  3,774
  4,004
  4,243
  4,492
  4,752
  5,023
  5,307
  5,602
  5,911
  6,234
  6,572
  6,926
  7,295
  7,683
  8,088
  8,512
  8,957
  9,422
  9,911
  10,422
  10,959
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,071
  2,232
  2,400
  2,574
  2,755
  2,943
  3,139
  3,342
  3,554
  3,774
  4,004
  4,243
  4,492
  4,752
  5,023
  5,307
  5,602
  5,911
  6,234
  6,572
  6,926
  7,295
  7,683
  8,088
  8,512
  8,957
  9,422
  9,911
  10,422
  10,959
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
  1.088
Average production assets, $m
  550
  593
  637
  683
  731
  781
  833
  887
  943
  1,002
  1,063
  1,126
  1,192
  1,262
  1,334
  1,409
  1,487
  1,569
  1,655
  1,745
  1,839
  1,937
  2,039
  2,147
  2,260
  2,378
  2,501
  2,631
  2,767
  2,909
Working capital, $m
  216
  233
  251
  269
  288
  307
  328
  349
  371
  394
  418
  443
  469
  496
  525
  554
  585
  617
  651
  686
  723
  762
  802
  845
  889
  936
  984
  1,035
  1,089
  1,145
Total debt, $m
  956
  1,101
  1,252
  1,408
  1,571
  1,741
  1,917
  2,100
  2,290
  2,489
  2,695
  2,910
  3,135
  3,369
  3,613
  3,868
  4,134
  4,412
  4,703
  5,007
  5,325
  5,658
  6,006
  6,371
  6,753
  7,153
  7,572
  8,012
  8,472
  8,955
Total liabilities, $m
  1,864
  2,009
  2,160
  2,316
  2,479
  2,649
  2,825
  3,008
  3,198
  3,397
  3,603
  3,818
  4,043
  4,277
  4,521
  4,776
  5,042
  5,320
  5,611
  5,915
  6,233
  6,566
  6,914
  7,279
  7,661
  8,061
  8,480
  8,920
  9,380
  9,863
Total equity, $m
  207
  223
  240
  257
  275
  294
  314
  334
  355
  377
  400
  424
  449
  475
  502
  531
  560
  591
  623
  657
  693
  730
  768
  809
  851
  896
  942
  991
  1,042
  1,096
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,071
  2,232
  2,400
  2,573
  2,754
  2,943
  3,139
  3,342
  3,553
  3,774
  4,003
  4,242
  4,492
  4,752
  5,023
  5,307
  5,602
  5,911
  6,234
  6,572
  6,926
  7,296
  7,682
  8,088
  8,512
  8,957
  9,422
  9,911
  10,422
  10,959
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.610
  4.930
  5.220
  5.470
  5.700
  5.910
  6.110
  6.280
  6.440
  6.590
  6.730
  6.860
  6.980
  7.090
  7.190
  7.290
  7.380
  7.460
  7.540
  7.620
  7.690
  7.760
  7.820
  7.880
  7.930
  7.990
  8.040
  8.080
  8.130
  8.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  379
  453
  518
  585
  656
  729
  806
  886
  970
  1,057
  1,172
  1,268
  1,367
  1,472
  1,581
  1,695
  1,815
  1,941
  2,072
  2,211
  2,356
  2,508
  2,668
  2,836
  3,012
  3,197
  3,392
  3,597
  3,812
  4,038
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  97
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  168
  176
  185
Funds from operations, $m
  447
  524
  592
  662
  736
  813
  893
  976
  1,063
  1,154
  1,240
  1,339
  1,443
  1,552
  1,666
  1,785
  1,910
  2,041
  2,178
  2,322
  2,473
  2,631
  2,798
  2,972
  3,156
  3,349
  3,551
  3,764
  3,988
  4,223
Change in working capital, $m
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
Cash from operations, $m
  431
  507
  574
  644
  717
  793
  872
  955
  1,041
  1,131
  1,216
  1,314
  1,417
  1,525
  1,637
  1,755
  1,879
  2,008
  2,144
  2,286
  2,436
  2,593
  2,757
  2,930
  3,112
  3,302
  3,503
  3,713
  3,934
  4,167
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -176
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -318
Free cash flow, $m
  357
  430
  492
  557
  625
  696
  770
  848
  928
  1,012
  1,091
  1,183
  1,279
  1,380
  1,485
  1,595
  1,711
  1,831
  1,958
  2,091
  2,231
  2,377
  2,531
  2,693
  2,862
  3,040
  3,228
  3,424
  3,631
  3,848
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -168
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  191
  198
  207
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  365
  382
  400
  419
  439
  460
  483
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -168
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  191
  198
  207
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  365
  382
  400
  419
  439
  460
  483
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  188
  575
  643
  714
  788
  866
  947
  1,031
  1,119
  1,211
  1,298
  1,398
  1,504
  1,614
  1,729
  1,850
  1,977
  2,110
  2,249
  2,395
  2,549
  2,710
  2,879
  3,057
  3,244
  3,440
  3,647
  3,864
  4,091
  4,331
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -324
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -136
  559
  626
  697
  770
  847
  927
  1,010
  1,098
  1,189
  1,275
  1,375
  1,479
  1,588
  1,702
  1,822
  1,947
  2,079
  2,217
  2,362
  2,514
  2,673
  2,841
  3,017
  3,202
  3,396
  3,600
  3,815
  4,040
  4,277
Discount rate, %
  14.60
  15.33
  16.10
  16.90
  17.75
  18.63
  19.57
  20.54
  21.57
  22.65
  23.78
  24.97
  26.22
  27.53
  28.91
  30.35
  31.87
  33.46
  35.14
  36.89
  38.74
  40.68
  42.71
  44.84
  47.09
  49.44
  51.91
  54.51
  57.23
  60.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -118
  420
  400
  373
  340
  304
  265
  227
  189
  154
  122
  95
  72
  53
  38
  26
  18
  12
  7
  4
  3
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Valvoline Inc. (Valvoline) is engaged in the production and distribution of automotive, commercial and industrial lubricants, and automotive chemicals. The Company operates through three segments: Core North America, Quick Lubes and International. The Core North America segment sells Valvoline, and other branded and private label products in the United States and Canada to both consumers performing their own automotive maintenance, referred to as Do-It-Yourself (DIY) consumers, as well as, to installer customers using Valvoline products to service vehicles owned by Do-It-For-Me (DIFM) consumers. Its Quick Lubes segment services the passenger car and light truck quick lube market through platforms, including its franchised Valvoline Instant Oil Change (VIOC) stores and Express Care. Its International segment sells Valvoline and other branded products through its affiliates, joint ventures, licensees and independent distributors. Its products include All Climate, DuraBlend and MaxLife.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Valvoline (VVV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.1
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book -34
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -30.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -20.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -54.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -905.1%
Total Debt to Equity -982.1%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 17.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Return On Total Capital 41.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.1%
Return On Equity -136%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.8%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
EBITDA Margin 27.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Operating Margin 25.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.1%
Net Profit Margin 14.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Effective Tax Rate 38%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.7%
Payout Ratio 13.2%

VVV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the VVV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2084 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Valvoline. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Valvoline. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our VVV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.6%, whose default value for VVV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Valvoline, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Valvoline.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of VVV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 38.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $787 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for VVV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Valvoline.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Valvoline. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the VVV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for VVV are equal to 24.4%.

Life of production assets of 15.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Valvoline operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for VVV is equal to 9.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-117 million for Valvoline - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 190.747 million for Valvoline is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Valvoline at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Valvoline Inc Stock Is Slumping Today   [02:22PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Valvoline: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-05-18 06:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ 10 Hottest Selling Products in the USA in 2018   [Oct-09-18 11:28AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Amazon Threat Turns JPMorgan Bearish On Valvoline   [Sep-14-18 02:14PM  Benzinga]
▶ Valvoline: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Valvoline Reports Third-Quarter Fiscal 2018 Results   [Aug-01-18 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Valvoline Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-24-18 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Valvoline: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 05:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Valvoline Reports Second-Quarter Fiscal 2018 Results   [May-02-18 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Valvoline Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Apr-18-18 04:30PM  Business Wire]

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